能源价格有序放开对我国碳减排成本的影响研究：动态一般均衡分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2554

Abstract

Abstract:

Carbon pricing is one of the key measures for China to reach a carbon peak in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. However， price regulations relating to electricity， natural gas， and refined oil products in China may affect the cost-effectiveness of carbon pricing policies. Therefore， China’s existing energy pricing mechanism is introduced into a computable general equilibrium model， and the comprehensive effects of orderly deregulation of multiple energy prices on China’s marginal abatement cost （MAC） is explored. On this basis， the total abatement costs and cost-saving effects under different scenarios for China to achieve Nationally Determined Contribution target and phased target of carbon neutrality are evaluated. The results indicate that， first， China’s MAC is most sensitive to the deregulation of refined oil prices. Whether it is to liberalize refined oil prices for non-key oil-using sectors in the preliminary reform or to liberalize refined oil prices for key oil-using sectors in the in-depth reform， China’s MAC will demonstrate an obvious downward trend and the cost-saving effects to achieve the given abatement target will be the most significant. Second， the deregulation of electricity prices for households and agriculture sector will also reduce China’s MAC and total abatement costs to some extent. Third， although China’s MAC is insensitive to deregulate gas prices for non-households or households， it will also lead to a slight decline in MAC and total abatement costs. Finally， combined with the current mainstream carbon trading policies in China， the following suggestions are given： First， the overall roadmap for China’s energy market price reform may give priority to deregulating natural gas prices for non-household sectors and refined oil prices for non-key oil-using sectors. If the part of refined oil price is liberalized first， the total emission quota in the carbon market can obviously be reduced. If the natural gas price for non-household sectors is liberalized first， the corresponding abatement policies do not need to be adjusted. Second， in the long-run， the energy market price reform will eventually deregulate electricity， natural gas， and refined oil prices in all sectors. In this phase， if we fully liberalize refined oil prices first， it can continue to significantly reduce the total emission quota. If we fully deregulate electricity prices or natural gas prices first， the total emission quota can be both moderately reduced. Third， from an industry perspective， it would be appropriate for the oil refining industry to consider reducing oil refining capacity or transforming and upgrading， and for the power and natural gas industries to consider controlling the scale of new installed capacity or moderately reducing capacity.

Key words: energy price reforms, orderly deregulation, marginal abatement cost, cost-saving effect, CGE model

CLC Number:

F206

Hongdian Jiang,Kangyin Dong. The Effects of the Orderly Deregulation of Energy Prices on Carbon Abatement Cost in China: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(9): 281-291.

Figures/Tables 14

弹性参数	取值	弹性参数	取值
$σ e w s$	5	$σ v a_n h$	0.9
$σ f o f_t e c h$	10	$σ r o_f s v a$	0.2
$σ x$	0.6	$σ f s v a$	0.02
$σ k e$	0.9	$σ v a_a d v$	0.9
$σ e n e r g y$	0.5	$σ v a_c c s$	0.99
$σ C O$	0.3	$σ r v a$	0.2
$σ G F$	0.4	$σ f v a m$	0.6
$σ n g r$	0.2	$σ v a_w s o$	0.9

参数		实现NDC的成本节约效应（十亿元）
参数		PRI	PRII	PRIII	IRI	IRII	IRIII	IRIV
$σ E$	低	4.58	19.74	25.30	36.94	30.66	41.44	51.37
	中	5.35	22.25	30.93	45.25	36.38	49.88	60.99
	高	6.63	31.18	39.47	55.56	49.31	60.65	75.00
$σ K E$	低	2.98	10.09	12.36	15.77	13.82	19.21	23.41
	中	5.35	22.25	30.93	45.25	36.38	49.88	60.99
	高	11.36	47.57	59.78	95.61	78.96	106.41	119.18
$σ K E L$	低	10.38	41.32	49.46	66.09	54.73	79.55	98.88
	中	5.35	22.25	30.93	45.25	36.38	49.88	60.99
	高	3.34	12.44	16.41	24.36	21.52	25.24	30.23

References 32

1	程承，安润飞，董康银，等. 碳交易机制引导下可再生能源发电企业创新策略研究——基于演化博弈视角［J］. 中国管理科学， 2024， 32（3）： 82-94.
	Cheng C， An R F， Dong K Y， et al. Research on innovation strategy for renewable power generation enterprises under the background of carbon trading mechanism： Based on evolutionary game ［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2024， 32（3）： 82-94.
2	令狐大智，武新丽，叶飞. 考虑双重异质性的碳配额分配及交易机制研究［J］.中国管理科学，2021，29（3）： 176-187.
	Linghu D Z， Wu X L， Ye F. Carbon quota allowance & trading mechanism considering double heterogeneity［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2021，29（3）： 176-187.
3	Shi X， Sun S. Energy price， regulatory price distortion and economic growth： A case study of China［J］. Energy Economics， 2017， 63： 261-271.
4	Ju K， Su B， Zhou D， et al. Does energy-price regulation benefit China's economy and environment？ Evidence from energy-price distortions［J］.Energy Policy， 2017， 105： 108-119.
5	Akkemik K A， Oğuz F. Regulation， efficiency and equilibrium： A general equilibrium analysis of liberalization in the Turkish electricity market［J］. Energy， 2011， 36（5）： 3282-3292.
6	Jia Z J， Lin B Q， Wen S Y. Electricity market reform： The perspective of price regulation and carbon neutrality［J］. Applied Energy， 2022， 328： 120164.
7	Li J F， Wang X， Zhang Y X， et al. The economic impact of carbon pricing with regulated electricity prices in China： An application of a computable general equilibrium approach［J］. Energy Policy， 2014， 75： 46-56.
8	Jia Z， Lin B. Primary fossil energy cost and price regulation in energy processing sectors： The perspective of price regulation market with Chinese characteristics［J］. Resources Policy， 2023， 83： 103641.
9	Kesicki F. What are the key drivers of MAC curves？ A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK［J］. Energy Policy， 2013， 58： 142-151.
10	Siddiqui M S. Impacts of external change on a regional marginal abatement cost curve： A canadian perspective［C］//Proceeding of Fourth World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists，Montreal Canada， June， 28 to July，2，2010： 1-11.
11	Klepper G， Peterson S. Marginal abatement cost curves in general equilibrium： The influence of world energy prices［J］. Resource and Energy Economics， 2006， 28（1）： 1-23.
12	姚云飞，梁巧梅，魏一鸣. 国际能源价格波动对中国边际减排成本的影响：基于CEEPA模型的分析［J］. 中国软科学， 2012（2）： 161-170.
	Yao Y， Liang Q M， Wei Y M. The impacts of international energy price volatility on China’s marginal abatement cost： A CEEPA－based Analysis ［J］. China Soft Science Magazine， 2012（2）： 161-170.
13	Jiang H D， Xue M M， Dong K Y， et al. How will natural gas market reforms affect carbon marginal abatement costs？ Evidence from China［J］. Economic Systems Research， 2022， 34（2）： 129-150.
14	姜洪殿，任重远，梁巧梅. 地缘政治动荡对中国能源环境的全局经济影响及其对策［J］. 中国人口·资源与环境， 2023， 33（9）： 1-13.
	Jiang H D， Ren Z Y， Liang Q M. Economy-wide impacts of geopolitical turmoil on China’s energy environment and its countermeasures［J］. China Population， Resources and Environment， 2023， 33（9）： 1-13.
15	姜洪殿，杨倩如，董康银. 中国电力行业低碳转型政策的经济-能源-环境影响［J］. 中国人口·资源与环境， 2022， 32（6）： 30-40.
	Jiang H D， Yang Q R， Dong K Y. Socio-economic， energy and environmental impacts of low-carbon transition policies in China’s power sector［J］. China Population， Resources and Environment， 2022， 32（6）： 30-40.
16	姚云飞，梁巧梅，魏一鸣. 主要排放部门的减排责任分担研究：基于全局成本有效的分析［J］. 管理学报， 2012， 9（8）： 1239-1243.
	Yao Y F， Liang Q M， Wei Y M. Sharing the burden of mitigation among key emission sectors in China： A economy-wide cost-effective the perspective［J］. Chinese Journal of Management， 2012， 9（8）： 1239-1243.
17	Liang Q M， Yao Y F， Zhao L T， et al. Platform for china energy & environmental policy analysis： A general design and its application［J］. Environmental Modelling & Software， 2014， 51： 195-206.
18	国家统计局国民经济核算司. 2017年中国投入产出表［M］. 北京：中国统计出版社， 2019.
	National Bureau of Statistics. China input-output table 2017 ［M］. Beijing： China Statistics Press， 2019.
19	国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴2018［M］. 北京：中国统计出版社， 2018.
	National Bureau of Statistics. China statistical yearbook （2018）［M］. Beijing： China Statistics Press， 2018.
20	中华人民共和国财政部. 中国财政年鉴2018［M］. 北京：中国财政杂志社， 2018.
	Ministry of Finance PR China. China financial yearbook （2018）［M］. Beijing： China State Finance Magazine， 2018.
21	国家统计局能源统计司. 中国能源统计年鉴2018 ［M］. 北京：中国统计出版社， 2018.
	National Bureau of Statistics. China energy statistical yearbook（2018）［M］. Beijing： China Statistical Press， 2018.
22	中华人民共和国海关总署. 中国海关统计年鉴2018 ［M］. 北京：中国海关杂志社， 2018.
	General Administration of Customs PR China. China customs statistics yearbook （2018）［M］. Beijing： China Custom Magazine， 2018.
23	Liu Z， Guan D B， Wei W， et al. Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China［J］. Nature， 2015， 524（7565）： 335-338.
24	Paltsev S， Reilly J M， Jacoby H D， et al. The MIT emissions prediction and policy analysis （EPPA） model： Version 4［R］. Working Paper， MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change， 2005.
25	Jiang H D， Xue M M， Liang Q M， et al. How do demand-side policies contribute to the electrification and decarburization of private transportation in China？ A CGE-based analysis［J］. Technological Forecasting and Social Change， 2022， 175： 121322.
26	国家发展和改革委员会. 关于进一步深化燃煤发电上网电价市场化改革的通知［EB/OL］.（2021-10-12）［2023-12-18］. .
	NDRC. Notice on further deepening the market-oriented reform of on-grid pricing for coal-fired power generation ［EB/OL］. （2021-10-12）［2023-12-18］. .
27	国家发展改革委. 关于“十四五”时期深化价格机制改革行动方案的通知［EB/OL］. （2021-05-18）［2023-12-18］. .
	NDRC. Notice on the action plan for deepening the reform of the price mechanism during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period ［EB/OL］. （2021-05-18）［2023-12-18］. .
28	国家发展改革委. 关于加快建设全国统一电力市场体系的指导意见［EB/OL］. （2022-01-18）［2023-12-18］. .
	NDRC. Guiding opinions on accelerating the construction of a national unified electricity market system ［EB/OL］.（2022-01-18）［2023-12-18］. .
29	International Energy Agency. International energy outlook 2023［R］.Working Paper， Energy Information Administration of US， 2023.
30	Qian H Q， Wu L B， Tang W Q. “Lock-in” effect of emission standard and its impact on the choice of market based instruments［J］. Energy Economics， 2017， 63： 41-50.
31	Zhang S， An K， Li J， et al. Incorporating health co-benefits into technology pathways to achieve China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal： A modelling study［J］. The Lancet Planetary Health， 2021， 5（11）： 808-817.
32	Jiang H D， Pradhan B K， Dong K， et al. An economy-wide impacts of multiple mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality in China： A CGE-based analysis［J］. Energy Economics， 2024， 129： 107220.

情景		能源价格改革范围
		电力价格		天然气价格		成品油价格
		放开工商业用电价格	放开居民、农业用电价格	放开非居民用气价格	放开居民用气价格	放开非重点用油部门价格	放开重点用油部门价格
基准情景	BAU	Y	N	N	N	N	N
初级改革	PRI	Y	N	Y	N	N	N
初级改革	PRII	Y	N	N	N	Y	N
	PRIII	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N
深度改革	IRI	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N
	IRII	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	N
	IRIII	Y	N	Y	N	Y	Y
	IRIV	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y

能源类型	情景
能源类型	PRI	PRII	PRIII	IRI	IRII	IRIII	IRIV
煤炭	0.05	-0.01	0.04	0.26	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07
原油	0.02	-0.21	-0.19	-0.1	-0.39	-0.50	-0.61
天然气	17.6	0.07	17.6	17.7	16.2	17.6	16.2
成品油	0.01	9.6	9.7	9.8	9.5	9.4	9.3
燃气	0.02	0.10	0.12	0.18	12.7	0.06	12.7
电力	0.01	0.29	0.65	7.5	0.54	0.50	6.8

参数	BAU	PRI	PRII	PRIII	IRI	IRII	IRIII	IRIIV
α	6.18	5.88	4.07	3.53	2.76	3.71	1.50	0.86
β	7.43	10.18	16.36	21.37	27.59	20.96	31.24	34.79
γ	215.77	206.93	181.77	167.01	144.28	160.32	136.35	119.82
R²	0.9999	0.99998	0.99998	0.99997	0.99992	0.99994	0.99989	0.99984

年份	2017-2020	2020-2025	2025-2030	2030-2035	2035-2040	2040-2045	2045-2050
高(%)	8.206	7.037	5.811	4.528	3.318	2.405	1.557
中(%)	7.978	5.982	4.271	2.987	2.310	1.827	1.314
低(%)	7.881	5.384	3.337	1.847	1.228	0.814	0.370

[1]	XU Xiao-liang, XU Xue-fen. The Impacts of China's Energy Subsidies on Resource Efficiency and Environmental Pollution Control [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(5): 221-230.
[2]	CUI Lian-biao, FAN Ying, ZHU Lei, BI Qing-hua, ZHANG Yi. The Cost Saving Effect of Carbon Markets in China for Achieving the Reduction Targets in the “12th Five-Year Plan” [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013, (1): 37-46.
[3]	FAN Jin, YAN Bin-jian, HIROSHI Sakamoto. Review of Researches on Stochastic CGE Model [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2009, 17(5): 183-192.

The Effects of the Orderly Deregulation of Energy Prices on Carbon Abatement Cost in China: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 14

References 32

Related Articles 3

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0