中国区域电力企业可再生能源电力配额分配机制研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1115

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate change and environmental pollution are major problems in energy and environment management around the world. To relieve these two problems for “double carbon” target， it is important to develop renewable energy. However， certain characteristics of renewable energy （e.g.， uncertainty and high cost） have limited its further development. Renewable electricity standard （RES） has been widely adopted inmany countries to further develop the renewable energy. In this paper， a data-driven approach is provided to allocate a renewables quota among the regional power industries of China in order to achieve a goal for renewable energy consumption. Specifically， each regional power industry’s historical production data is used to build its own technology， which is used to show the changes of new productions with different renewables quotas. Then， based on each regional power industry’s production technology， a maximum total electricity generation model is proposed to allocate the renewables quota among regional power industries. With maximizing total electricity generation as the primary goal， the proposed model also is able to minimize the total carbon emission as a secondary goal approach. Through empirical research， the following management suggestions are provided for the development of renewable energy：（1） In order to solve the energy supply and demand contradiction between high production and low consumption， it is necessary to accelerate the development of trans-provincial and trans-regional renewable energy transmission technology and improve transmission capacity （2） In the economically developed eastern region， the way to fulfill the responsibility weight of renewable power should be inclined to other ways except production （such as purchasing green certificates， purchasing renewable power， etc.）. （3） In coordination with the planning of renewable energy power quota system and emission reduction targets.

Key words: renewable energy, renewable electricity standard, renewables quota, production technology, resource allocation

CLC Number:

F205

Qingyuan Zhu,Xifan Chen,Jie Chen,Jie Wu. Renewables Quota Allocation among Regional Power Industries under the Policy of Renewable Electricity Standard[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(9): 292-302.

Figures/Tables 10

符号	含义
$X ? i j$	DMU _j 将使用的新输入i
$R ? z j$	DMU _j 将生产的新可再生电力z
$N ? c j$	DMU _j 将生产的新不可再生电力c
$B ? l j$	DMU _j 将生产的新非期望输出l
$λ j t$	t时期的DMU _j 对应的乘数变量
$α j$	分配给DMU _j 的可再生能源配额

DMUs	投入		期望产出		非期望产出	$α j$ （%）
DMUs	可再生电力装机容量	不可再生电力装机容量	可再生电力	不可再生电力	CO₂	$α j$ （%）
天津	98.0	1402.0	12.1	584.0	4640.5	2.0
上海	32.7	2127.0	7.8	963.0	7434.3	0.8
江苏	1828.0	9430.0	230.0	4481.0	33648.2	4.9
北京	132.0	971.0	16.1	419.0	1592.0	3.7
山东	2220.8	10335.0	245.7	4615.0	35821.3	5.1
安徽	1415.0	5053.0	160.0	2311.0	17464.8	6.5
河南	1335.0	6544.0	174.0	2528.0	21658.1	6.4
陕西	1706.0	6366.0	263.0	2503.0	21673.9	9.5
陕西	1048.0	3144	176.0	1427.0	10116.7	11.0
河北	2231.0	4574.0	360.0	2296.0	17308.7	13.6
浙江	1934.9	6109.0	302.0	2482.2	17845.5	10.8
广东	1796.0	7721.0	481.0	2850.0	20963.7	14.4
辽宁	1229.0	3193.0	207.0	1349.0	13898.5	13.3
黑龙江	767.0	2201.0	138.7	816.0	7769.1	14.5
海南	191.0	465.0	35.0	195.0	1689.6	15.2
宁夏	1605.0	2583.0	247.0	1158	11228.8	17.6
内蒙古	3655.0	8170.0	688.0	3736.0	42624.0	15.6
新疆	3472.0	5207.0	681.0	2349.0	22404.9	22.5
江西	1233.0	1934.0	218.0	967.0	6961.8	18.4
吉林	823.0	1694.0	182.9	590.0	7249.1	23.7
福建	1545.0	2902.0	682.5	915.0	7360.7	42.7
重庆	781.0	1544.0	260.2	467.0	3520.8	35.8
广州	2382.0	2684.0	860.2	1071.0	6444.8	44.5
湖南	1800.0	2322.0	600.7	732.0	5364.7	45.1
甘肃	2936.0	2059.0	635.0	707.0	6264.9	47.3
湖北	4337.0	2787.0	1570.0	1075.0	7487.2	59.4
广西	1697.2	1652.0	768.5	544.0	3815.9	58.6
青海	2144.0	399.0	463.0	153.0	1424.6	75.2
四川	8059.0	1662.0	3215.0	354.0	2496.8	90.1
云南	7344.0	1613.0	2718.0	240.0	2314.1	91.9

区域	占比均值 (2013-2017)	实际完成 (2018)	可再生电力消纳责任权重（2018）		目标
区域	占比均值 (2013-2017)	实际完成 (2018)	最小	激励性	$α = 27 %$	$α = 30 %$
天津	1.3	11.4	11.0	12.1	2.0	2.8
上海	1.4	32.1	31.5	34.9	0.8	2.8
江苏	2.9	14.7	12.5	13.7	4.9	5.2
北京	3.1	13.2	11.0	12.1	3.7	5.4
山东	3.4	9.9	9.5	10.4	5.1	5.3
安徽	4.1	14.9	13.0	14.3	6.5	7.2
河南	4.8	16.9	13.5	14.9	6.4	7.1
陕西	6.2	16.4	15.0	16.5	9.5	9.6
陕西	7.9	20.3	17.5	19.2	11.0	13.0
河北	9.6	12.2	11.0	12.1	13.6	15.4
浙江	9.7	17.8	18.0	19.8	10.9	13.1
广东	11.2	32.9	31.0	34.2	14.4	16.2
辽宁	11.4	14.2	12.0	13.2	13.3	16.0
黑龙江	11.8	19.4	19.5	21.5	14.5	18.4
海南	12.4	13.6	11.0	12.1	15.2	21.2
宁夏	12.8	25.2	20.0	22.2	17.6	21.0
内蒙古	13.1	18.6	18.5	20.4	15.6	16.6
新疆	17.7	26.8	21.0	23.1	22.5	23.3
江西	17.9	22.9	23.0	25.1	18.4	26.6
吉林	20.1	24.9	20.0	22.0	23.7	30.4
福建	30.9	19.0	17.0	18.7	42.7	47.3
重庆	34.6	45.9	47.5	52.1	35.8	45.3
广州	38.2	36.2	33.5	36.9	44.5	50.4
湖南	40.6	42.1	46.0	50.5	45.1	52.0
甘肃	42.9	48.4	44.0	48.4	47.3	55.0
湖北	50.1	46.0	51.0	56.2	58.6	66.8
广西	57.0	38.0	39.0	43.0	59.4	65.2
青海	76.4	78.2	70.0	77.0	75.2	83.8
四川	85.2	81.9	80.0	88.0	90.1	93.1
云南	86.7	83.4	80.0	88.0	91.9	91.9

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投入/产出	变量	单位
投入	可再生能源装机容量	10⁴kW
投入	不可再生能源装机容量	10⁴kW
期望产出	可再生能源电力	10⁸kWh
期望产出	不可再生能源电力	10⁸kWh
非期望产出	二氧化碳排放量	10⁴t

碳排放量参数	原油	汽油	煤油	柴油	燃料油	天然气
能量热值换算系数（T_k ）	20908 kJ/kg	43070 kJ/kg	43070 kJ/kg	42652 kJ/kg	41816 kJ/kg	38931 kJ/m³
碳排放系数（C_k ）	25.8 kgC/GJ	19.1 kgC/GJ	19.6 kgC/GJ	20.2 kgC/GJ	21.1 kgC/GJ	15.3 kgC/GJ
碳氧化因子（R_k ）	1	1	1	1	1	1

年份	统计量	投入		期望产出		非期望产出
年份	统计量	可再生电力装机容量	不可再生电力装机容量	可再生电力	不可再生电力	CO₂
2013年	均值	1237.90	2897.69	349.48	1408.07	12065.26
	中位数	823.00	2127.00	179.20	1031.00	7707.03
	标准差	1274.60	2079.13	473.79	1073.28	9287.06
	最大值	5280.30	7555.00	2023.80	4174.00	36440.53
	最小值	25.60	235.00	5.80	136.00	1402.26
2014年	均值	1408.90	3082.86	416.47	1423.14	11693.55
	中位数	791.10	2138.00	146.70	997.00	7595.48
	标准差	1502.73	2217.05	606.79	1145.15	9334.44
	最大值	6327.40	8073.00	2582.50	4383.00	38271.61
	最小值	34.70	242.00	6.51	131.00	1349.01
2015年	均值	1596.53	3321.24	445.85	1387.55	11400.89
	中位数	1024.50	2261.00	184.40	1026.00	7254.73
	标准差	1672.31	2398.48	641.54	1150.33	9839.17
	最大值	7048.40	8754.00	2779.20	4484.00	37819.29
	最小值	42.10	318.00	6.80	120.00	1156.15
2016年	均值	1795.44	3492.38	492.16	1416.52	11435.50
	中位数	1401.80	2322.00	229.00	915.00	7247.39
	标准差	1748.82	2513.81	682.25	1201.56	10304.67
	最大值	7467.00	9540.00	3021.00	4671.00	38557.64
	最小值	90.00	402.00	9.13	151.00	1377.31
2017年	均值	2065.92	3629.17	530.71	1490.00	12207.73
	中位数	1706.00	2583.00	260.20	1075.00	7593.39
	标准差	1817.54	2657.80	733.80	1244.32	10707.63
	最大值	8059.00	10335.00	3215.00	4615.00	42623.96
	最小值	98.00	399.00	12.10	153.00	1352.72

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Renewables Quota Allocation among Regional Power Industries under the Policy of Renewable Electricity Standard

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