临机决策视角下的非常规突发事件应急处置方案生成

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1982

Abstract

Abstract:

The scenarios of unconventional emergencies are highly complex and uncertain， which means that the generation of emergency response plans must consider the needs of subsequent dynamic adjustment and the generated plans must have the characteristics of flexible adjustment. In addition， there are often multiple conflicting goals in the process of emergency response. How to balance the conflicting goals and make the generated plans more scientific and reasonable is also a problem that must be considered. There is still room for improvement and expansion in the existing researches on the above two aspects. Improvisational decision-making provides an effective mode or means for improvisational generation and dynamic adjustment of emergency response plans for unconventional emergencies， but the operable models and methods in its key links still need to be further studied. In order to improve the flexibility of the generation of emergency response plans for unconventional emergencies， an emergency response plan model is constructed based on the idea of improvisational decision-making and with emergency response activities as the core. For the sake of generating a satisfactory and feasible emergency response plan， taking emergency response activities as the programming objects， and taking resources， time and order relations of emergency response activities as constraints， a multi-objective programming model for improvisational generation of emergency response plans is established to minimize rescue time， minimize response cost and optimize the balance of resource allocation. With the help of the non-dominant ranking evolutionary algorithm with elite strategy and the optimal compromise solution selection based on the fuzzy set theory， the multi-objective programming model is solved and the plan is optimized， so that when there is a “mismatch” between the response ability of the existing plan and the current scenario at any moment， the effective emergency response plan can be obtained through the reconfiguration of emergency response activities. By systematically collecting， analyzing and summarizing relevant survey data obtained from Ministry of Emergency Management， news content， emergency preplans and references， a case study of improvisational generation of the emergency response plan of Yancheng “3.21” chemical plant explosion accident is carried out， and the scientificity and effectiveness of the proposed model and method is verified by solving the case-based problem. The results show that fine-grained representation of emergency response activities improve the flexibility and reconfigurable of emergency response plans， and provide basic active elements for the improvisational generation of emergency response plans. The further refinement of the elements of emergency response activities such as time， resource and priority ensures that the generated plans meet the requirements of time， cost and fairness for emergency response. The proposed multi-objective programming model and the corresponding solving algorithm for improvisational generation of emergency response plans not only enrich the connotation of improvisational decision-making， but also improve the operability and feasibility of the application of improvisational decision-making in the generation of emergency response plans for unconventional emergencies， and then provide some reference for the further improvement and deepening of the theories and methods of emergency decision-making.

Key words: unconventional emergency, plan generation, improvisational decision-making, emergency response activity, multi-objective programming

CLC Number:

C934

Xuelong Chen,Zhong Zhang,Yue Li. Generation of Emergency Response Plan for Unconventional Emergencies from the Perspective of Improvisational Decision-Making[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(10): 109-122.

Figures/Tables 11

偏好组合	目标函数权重组合模式	适用情景
时间、成本较优，牺牲均衡性	$ω 1 > ω 3$ 且 $ω 2 > ω 3$	资源十分有限、又需快速处置的突发事件
成本、均衡性较优，牺牲时间	$ω 2 > ω 1$ 且 $ω 3 > ω 1$	对救援时间不敏感的突发事件
时间、均衡性较优，牺牲成本	$ω 1 > ω 2$ 且 $ω 3 > ω 2$	非常紧急、且影响或破坏巨大的公共突发事件
…	…	…

资源( $r e s k$ )	释义	数量( $o_r e s k$ )	重要程度( $ω k$ )	成本( $v k$ )
类别：消耗性资源集( $r e s c$ )
$r e s 1$	泡沫灭火器	830支	0.95	60元/支
$r e s 2$	消防用水	500吨	0.80	4元/吨
$r e s 3$	急救箱	400套	0.95	50元/套
$r e s 4$	沙袋	205个	0.75	3元/个
$r e s 5$	防毒面具	700副	0.90	50元/副
类别：耐用性资源集( $r e s d$ )
$r e s 6$	消防车	225辆	0.95	100元/辆
$r e s 7$	防化服	910套	0.90	50元/套
$r e s 8$	应急灯具	600件	0.70	3元/件
$r e s 9$	担架	50副	0.90	8元/副
$r e s 10$	救护车	101辆	0.95	40元/辆
$r e s 11$	挖掘工具	200副	0.50	3元/副
$r e s 12$	事故检测箱	20套	0.60	5元/套
$r e s 13$	侦毒剂	15套	0.60	10元/套
$r e s 14$	气体检测仪	20台	0.65	3元/台
$r e s 15$	运输车	60辆	0.80	80元/辆
$r e s 16$	挖掘机	30台	0.85	100元/台
$r e s 17$	挖掘器械	145具	0.70	30元/具
$r e s 18$	警戒线	100卷	0.65	10元/卷
$r e s 19$	警示牌	100具	0.65	10元/具
$r e s 20$	消防员	900人	0.95	718元/人
$r e s 21$	民兵	180人	0.60	1034元/人
$r e s 22$	武警	253人	0.73	1034元/人
$r e s 23$	医护人员	303人	0.95	1034元/人
$r e s 24$	专家医生	70人	0.80	1034元/人
$r e s 25$	民警	240人	0.70	1034元/人
$r e s 26$	军区官兵	105人	0.70	1034元/人
$r e s 27$	监测人员	40人	0.85	1034元/人

活动 ( $a c t i$ )	耐用性资源 ( $r e s k d$ )	资源需求量 ( $r i_r e s k$ )	消耗性资源 ( $r e s k c$ )	资源需求量( $r i_r e s k$ )	最晚开始时间 ( $s t_l$ )	最短执行时间 ( $t_m i n$ )	最长执行时间 ( $t_m a x$ )	优先级 ( $p r i o r i t y$ )
$a c t 1$	$r e s 6$ , $r e s 7$ , $r e s 20$	73,360,300	$r e s 1$ , $r e s 2$ , $r e s 5$	400,300,360	1.0h	5.0h	15.0h	1
$a c t 2$	$r e s 6$ , $r e s 7$ , $r e s 20$	58,300,240	$r e s 1$ , $r e s 2$ , $r e s 5$	350,250,300	1.5h	4.0h	13.0h	1
$a c t 3$	$r e s 7$ , $r e s 8$ , $r e s 20$	240,260,180	$r e s 1$ , $r e s 2$ , $r e s 5$	210,200,240	1.0h	1.4h	3.4h	1
$a c t 4$	$r e s 9$ , $r e s 10$ , $r e s 20$ , $r e s 21$ , $r e s 22$	100,60,200,80,90	—	—	2.0h	9.3h	23.3h	1
$a c t 5$	$r e s 6$ , $r e s 7$ , $r e s 20$	38,160,152	$r e s 1$ , $r e s 2$ , $r e s 5$	160,160,160	11.0h	7.2h	16.2h	2
$a c t 6$	$r e s 7$ , $r e s 8$ , $r e s 11$ , $r e s 20$	250,250,250,243	$r e s 1$ , $r e s 2$ , $r e s 5$	250,100,250	3.0h	1.5h	4.5h	2
$a c t 7$	$r e s 7$ , $r e s 8$ , $r e s 11$ , $r e s 20$	200,200,200,190	$r e s 1$ , $r e s 2$ , $r e s 5$	200,80,200	6.0h	1.0h	3.0h	2
$a c t 8$	$r e s 23$ , $r e s 24$	170,60	$r e s 3$	600	3.0h	12.3h	28.3h	2
$a c t 9$	$r e s 10$ , $r e s 21$ , $r e s 22$ , $r e s 23$	55,170,60,30	$r e s 3$	620	3.0h	14.3h	32.3h	2
$a c t 10$	$r e s 7$ , $r e s 12$ , $r e s 13$ , $r e s 14$ , $r e s 27$	100,50,40, 76,100	$r e s 5$	100	4.0h	19.2h	36.2h	3
$a c t 11$	$r e s 15$ , $r e s 25$ , $r e s 26$	90,130,160	—	—	0.6h	6.0h	15.0h	1
$a c t 12$	$r e s 16$ , $r e s 17$ , $r e s 21$ , $r e s 22$ , $r e s 26$	200,320,300,150,150	$r e s 4$	400	15.0h	8.0h	21.0h	3
$a c t 13$	$r e s 8$ , $r e s 18$ , $r e s 19$ , $r e s 25$	100,100,100,90	—	—	1.0h	2.0h	6.0h	3
$a c t 14$	$r e s 18$ , $r e s 19$ , $r e s 25$	120,120,165	—	—	1.0h	2.4h	7.4h	3

活动( $a c t i$ )	耐用性资源( $r e s k d$ )	资源分配量( $d i_r e s k$ )	消耗性资源( $r e s k c$ )	资源分配量( $d i_r e s k$ )
$a c t 1$	{ $r e s 6, r e s 7, r e s 20$ }	{73,151,275}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{167,93,148}
$a c t 2$	{ $r e s 6, r e s 7, r e s 20$ }	{58,170,175}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{178,99,68}
$a c t 3$	{ $r e s 7, r e s 8, r e s 20$ }	{131,190,173}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{101,97,128}
$a c t 4$	{ $r e s 9, r e s 10, r e s 20, r e s 21, r e s 22$ }	{50,51,180,61,87}	—	—
$a c t 5$	{ $r e s 6, r e s 7, r e s 20$ }	{38,134,139}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{86,82,88}
$a c t 6$	{ $r e s 7, r e s 8, r e s 11$ , $r e s 20$ }	{130,174,119,177}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{132,69,100}
$a c t 7$	{ $r e s 7, r e s 8, r e s 11$ , $r e s 20$ }	{133,152,107,176}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{139,52,90}
$a c t 8$	$r e s 23$ , $r e s 24$ }	{170,60}	{ $r e s 3$ }	{5}
$a c t 9$	{ $r e s 10, r e s 21, r e s 22$ , $r e s 23$ }	{51,60,60,30}	{ $r e s 3$ }	{329}
$a c t 10$	{ $r e s 7, r e s 12, r e s 13, r e s 14, r e s 27$	{100,20,15,20,40}	{ $r e s 5$ }	{74}
$a c t 11$	{ $r e s 15, r e s 25, r e s 26$ }	{60,83,58}	—	—
$a c t 12$	{ $r e s 16, r e s 17$ , $r e s 21, r e s 22, r e s 26$ }	{30,145,63,89,55}	{ $r e s 4$ }	{205}
$a c t 13$	{ $r e s 8, r e s 18, r e s 19, r e s 25$ }	{100,54,52,81}	—	—
$a c t 14$	{ $r e s 18, r e s 19, r e s 25$ }	{58,68,80}	—	—

参数	取值
种群规模	200
进化代数	2000
变异算子的变异概率	0.02
交叉算子的交叉概率	0.9
惩罚缩放因子 $α f 1, α f 2, α f 3$	7,130000,2
惩罚最小偏移量 $β$	0.000667
基因型数量	115
运行时间	1679.83秒
Pareto Front个体数量	200

非支配解 $k$	$μ k$ 值	各目标函数值
30	0.006565	x=8.2923,y=353118.10,z=5.9775
126	0.006511	x=8.3706,y=353111.33,z=5.9640
99	0.006442	x=8.4089,y=345951.90,z=6.1292
…	…	…

活动( $a c t i$ )	耐用性资源( $r e s k d$ )	资源分配量( $d i_r e s k$ )	消耗性资源( $r e s k c$ )	资源分配量( $d i_r e s k$ )
$a c t 1$	{ $r e s 6, r e s 7, r e s 20$ }	{73,326,138}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{201,136,152}
$a c t 2$	{ $r e s 6, r e s 7, r e s 20$ }	{58,131,130}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{136,96,109}
$a c t 3$	{ $r e s 7, r e s 8, r e s 20$ }	{130,195,180}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{102,69,81}
$a c t 4$	{ $r e s 9, r e s 10, r e s 20, r e s 21, r e s 22$ }	{50,51,181,60,85}	—	—
$a c t 5$	{ $r e s 6, r e s 7, r e s 20$ }	{38,130,133}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{96,75,110}
$a c t 6$	{ $r e s 7, r e s 8, r e s 11$ , $r e s 20$ }	{130,184,104,129}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{136,67,90}
$a c t 7$	{ $r e s 7, r e s 8, r e s 11$ , $r e s 20$ }	{130,150,100,129}	$r e s 1, r e s 2, r e s 5$	{140,49,93}
$a c t 8$	$r e s 23$ , $r e s 24$ }	{170,60}	{ $r e s 3$ }	{183}
$a c t 9$	{ $r e s 10, r e s 21, r e s 22$ , $r e s 23$ }	{51,60,60,30}	{ $r e s 3$ }	{202}
$a c t 10$	{ $r e s 7, r e s 12, r e s 13, r e s 14, r e s 27$	{100,20,15,20,40}	{ $r e s 5$ }	{65}
$a c t 11$	{ $r e s 15, r e s 25, r e s 26$ }	{60,80,53}	—	—
$a c t 12$	{ $r e s 16, r e s 17$ , $r e s 21, r e s 22, r e s 26$ }	{30,145,60,94,53}	{ $r e s 4$ }	{205}
$a c t 13$	{ $r e s 8, r e s 18, r e s 19, r e s 25$ }	{100,50,50, 80}	—	—
$a c t 14$	{ $r e s 18, r e s 19, r e s 25$ }	{50,50,80}	—	—

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Generation of Emergency Response Plan for Unconventional Emergencies from the Perspective of Improvisational Decision-Making

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