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Chinese Journal of Management Science

Chinese Journal of Management Science >

2015 , Vol. 23 >Issue 1: 73 - 81

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.01.010

Articles

A Method for Multi-stage Stochastic Multi-criteria Decision Making Concerning Prospect Theory

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  • 1. College of Economics and Management, zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China;
    2. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China

Received date: 2013-03-06

  Revised date: 2013-07-18

  Online published: 2015-01-21

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Abstract

In practical decision-making problem, the risk preference of decision makers became an important factor influencing decision results, especially in the stochastic multi-criteria decision-making problems which contained many uncertainties. Prospect theory offered a new way in solving the uncertain decision-making problems. In this paper, a novel method for multi-stage stochastic multi-criteria decision-making concerning the prospect theory is proposed. Specifically, the concept of dynamic reference point concerning developing speed is introduced to determine the dynamic prospect values of alternatives. Additionally, a programming model is constructed to calculate the weights of criteria in each stage. Moreover, a model for evaluating the ranges of dynamic prospect values is constructed to reflect the fluctuations of alternative performances. Finally, a case is conducted to verify the results of the above approach, which can reflect the decision maker's risk preference and improve the discrimination of alternatives.

Key words： stochastic multi-criteria decision-making; prospect theory; dynamic reference point; multi-stage; triangular fuzzy number

Cite this article

HAO Jing-jing, ZHU Jian-jun, LIU Si-feng . A Method for Multi-stage Stochastic Multi-criteria Decision Making Concerning Prospect Theory[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015 , 23(1) : 73 -81 . DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.01.010

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