Owing to the simultaneous appearance of growth demand in emerging markets and indexing investment in metal futures market and interaction between supply and demand factors and financial factor, the pricing mechanism of nonferrous metals becomes more complex presenting characteristics such as nonlinearity, dynamics and structure dissimilation. Based on the above background, the pricing mechanism of nonferrous metals affected by supply and demand factors and financial factors is put forward. Monthly data from February 2000 to March 2014 is selected and MSVAR model is constructed to do empirical analysis as the example of copper. The results show that the price fluctuation of copper owns the feature of regime switching, namely, inflation period, depression period and steady period. During each period, financial factors could explain price violation completely while in different mechanism, and Chinese factor is apparently exaggerated, which is different from the previous studies.In the short term, each factor's impacts on international copper futures prices under different regimes have significant difference in function direction, duration and function strength. The conclusions and the nonlinear econometric models established provide new thinking and analysis tool for commodity financialization explanation.
ZHONG Mei-rui, CHEN Jie-yu, HUANG Jian-bai, CHEN Jin-yu
. Nonlinear Effect Studies of Influence Factors of Nonferrous Metals Price Fluctuation Based on MSVAR Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016
, 24(4)
: 45
-53
.
DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.04.006
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