In this paper, the wind electricity policy of Feed-in-tariff (FIT) implemented in China is studied by the optimal investment decision theory in real option theory.First, the real option theory of the investment of wind electricity project is analyzed, and then the real option model of FIT policy is established.Then, from the real option model of FIT policy, the theoretical proof that both volatility rate and expected growth rate of FIT are proportional to the critical value of FIT of wind electricity (optimal investment price) is given, which is the theoretical evidence and adjustment evidence of FIT policy, and it is the fixed FIT when the volatility rate of electricity price is equal to zero.In order to incentive investors to invest, governments should decrease the volatility rate and expected growth rate of FIT.Finally, empirical analysis is made by the Yuanshanzi wind electricity project in Hebei province; the conclusion is drawn that the wind electricity price should be decreased by about 1% every year.Our research results can be referenced by the other renewable energy electricity.
LI Qing, CHEN Min
. Real Option Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Feed-in-tariff (FIT) Policy of Wind Electricity in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016
, 24(5)
: 65
-73
.
DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.05.008
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