In recent years, the air pollution has seriously affected the sustainable development of China's economy, and the key to solve this problem is improving the environmental protection technology and implementing the effective environmental policy. In this paper' a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model containing energy saving and emissions reduction factors is buit, to research the dynamic effects of environmental technology, energy saving and emissions reduction subsidies, government spending and pollution treatment on China's macro economy, especially for the actual carbon emissions, energy conservation and emission reductions, and ecological environment quality. At the same time, the transmission mechanism of measures based on the impulse response of economic variables is analyzed. First of all, the parameters based are estimated on China's macro economic data by two ways,one is to estimate the static parameters by calibration, and the other is to estimate the dynamic parameters by the bayesian estimation method. Then, the parameter estimation results are used to simulate the theoretical model. The simulation results show that:(1) Improving environmental protection technology can reduce the actual carbon emissions and emission reductions, improve the quality of the ecological environment effectively with economic growth. (2) The energy saving and emissions reduction subsidy only has obvious inhibitory effect on actual carbon emissions and emission reductions in the short term, the long-term effect is relatively smaller, and has a little impact on the environment quality, and show some delay at the same time. (3) Government pollution spending has little effect in the short-term, can effectively reduce the actual carbon emissions in the long-term, and improve the ecological environment quality, but has the negative effects on macro economy. (4) The efforts degree of manufacturer rising can quickly improve energy saving and emission reductions, and effectively reduce the actual scale of carbon emissions, and effectively improve environmental quality. Overall, the environmental protection technology and efforts degree of manufacturer are the key factors of affecting the environment quality. Raising the environmental protection technology and the degree efforts of manufacturers' energy saving and emissions reduction are the key of effectively improving ecological environmental quality. The research provides useful guidance for enterprises to make investment in the environmental protection technology and government make effective policy in energy saving and emission reduction.
WU Xiao-li
. On the Dynamic Effect of Environmental Protection Technology,Energy Saving and Emissions Reduction Policy on Ecological Environmental Quality and Transmission Mechanism: Simulation Analysis Based on Three-sector DSGE Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017
, 25(12)
: 88
-98
.
DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.010
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