Risk management is the core issue to determine the sustainable and healthy development of financial innovation. Based on the information economics and game theory, an information asymmetry mathematical model is set up to analyze the acting mechanism and working conditions of social network in mitigating P2P lending's credit risk. It is proved that with the introduction of social network, the credit risk of P2P lending can be mitigated by three mechanisms of social network, which are ex ante information acquisition mechanism, joint liability mechanism and ex post default constraint mechanism. Those constitute unique credit risk mitigation mechanisms of social network, which can effectively relieve adverse selection caused by imperfection of credit system as well as moral hazard caused by lack of effective monitoring mechanism and lack of default constraint mechanism in P2P lending market. Joint liability, dynamic incentive, the strength of supervision, sanctions, constraints of default intensity and the mining of social information are thedetermining factors to the risk mitigation level of social network. The theoretical frameworks are first proposed for credit risk mitigation of social network in P2P lending, including the developed social network theory and credit risk management theory,which provide new scientific evidence and theoretical support for risk control trial with social network in P2P platform. Great theoretical importance is provided to understand and grasp risk mitigation mechanisms of social network, as well as to use social network credit risk management.
[1] 万建华.金融e时代:数字化时代的金融变局[M]. 北京:中信出版社, 2013.
[2] Krumme K A, Herrero S. Lending behavior and community structure in an online peer-to-peer economic network[C]//Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Computational Science and Engineering,Vancouver,Canada,August 29-31,2009.
[3] Fafchamps M, Gubert F. The formation of risk sharing networks[J]. Journal of development Economics, 2007, 83(2):326-350.
[4] Munshi, K. and M. Rosenzweig. Why is Mobility in India So Low? Social Insurance, Inequality and Growth[R]. Working Paper,National Bureau of Econmic Research, 2009.
[5] Grootaert C. Social capital, household welfare, and poverty in Indonesia[R]. Policy Research Wroking paper the Wrold Bank,1999.
[6] Narayan D, Pritchett L. Cents and sociability:Household income and social capital in rural Tanzania[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1999, 47(4):871-897.
[7] Montgomery, J D. Social Networks and Labor Market Outcomes:towards an Economic Analysis[J]. American Economic Review, 1991, 81(5):1408-1418.
[8] James S, Lahti T. Traditional institutions meet the modern world:Caste, gender, and schooling choice in a globalizing economy[J]. The American Economic Review, 2006, 96(4):1225-1252.
[9] 王萌, 郭迅华,陈国青, 等. 在线关系对中小网商绩效影响的实证分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016, 24(10):156-163.
[10] 谭云清, 马永生, 李元旭. 社会资本, 动态能力对创新绩效的影响:基于我国国际接包企业的实证研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2013, 21(11):784.
[11] Giné X, Karlan D S. Group versus individual liability:Long term evidence from Philippine microcredit lending groups[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2014,107:65-83.
[12] Feigenberg B, Field E M, Pande R. Building social capital through microfinance[R]. Work Paper,National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010.
[13] Berger A N, Saunders A, Scalise J M, et al. The effects of bank mergers and acquisitions on small business lending[J]. Journal of financial Economics, 1998, 50(2):187-229.
[14] Okten C, Osili U O. Social networks and credit access in Indonesia[J]. World Development, 2004, 32(7):1225-1246.
[15] Montgomery J D. Social networks and labor-market outcomes:Toward an economic analysis[J]. The American Economic Review, 1991, 81(5):1408-1418.
[16] James S, Lahti T. Traditional institutions meet the modern world:Caste, gender, and schooling choice in a globalizing economy[J]. The American Economic Review, 2006, 96(4):1225-1252.
[17] Kumar S. Bank of one:Empirical analysis of peer-to-peer financial marketplaces[C]//Proceedings of the 2007 America Conference on Information Systems, Keystone, Colorado, USA,2007.
[18] Lin Mingfeng, Prabhala N R, Viswanathan S. Judging borrowers by the company they keep:Social networks and adverse selection in online peer-to-peer lending[J]. Management Science,2013,59(1):17-35.
[19] Liu De, Brass DJ, Lu Yong, et al. Friendships in online peer-to-peer lending:Pipes, prisms, and relational herding[J]. 2015.
[20] Greiner M E, Wang H. The role of social capital in people-to-people lending marketplaces[J]. ICIS 2009 Proceedings, 2009:29.
[21] Brandes U, Lerner J, Nick B, et al. Network effects on interest rates in online social lending[C]//Proceedings of the International Confereme on Information Systems,Phoenix,Arizona,USA,December,15-18,2009.
[22] Berger S C, Gleisner F. Emergence of financial intermediaries in electronic markets:The case of online P2P lending[J].Journal of VHB, 2010,2(1):39-65.
[23] Collier B C, Hampshire R. Sending mixed signals:Multilevel reputation effects in peer-to-peer lending markets[C]//Proceedings of the 2010 Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work, Savannah,Georgia,USA,February 6-10,2010.
[24] Freedman S, Jin G. Dynamic learning and selection:the early years of prosper. com[R].Working Paper, University of Maryland, 2008.
[25] Freedman S M, Jin G Z. The signaling value of online social networks:lessons from peer-to-peer lending[J]. Interational Jouranl of Industrial Organization,2017,51:185-222.
[26] Chen Xiangru, Zhou Lina, Wan Difang. Group social capital and lending outcomes in the financial credit market:An empirical study of online peer-to-peer lending[J]. Electronic Commerce Research and Applications, 2016, 15:1-13.
[27] Johnson S, Ashta A, Assadi D. Online or offline?:The rise of "peer-to-peer" lending in microfinance[J]. Journal of Electronic Commerce in Organizations, 2010, 8(3):26-37.
[28] 陈冬宇, 朱浩, 郑海超. 风险、信任和出借意愿——基于拍拍贷注册用户的实证研究[J]. 管理评论, 2014, 26(1):150-158.
[29] 牛丰, 杨立. 基于博弈理论的P2P借贷信用风险产生机制分析[J]. 财务与金融,2016,(1):1-6.
[30] Stiglitz J E, Weiss A. Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information[J]. The American Economic Review, 1981, 71(3):393-410.
[31] Ghatak M, Guinnane T W. The economics of lending with joint liability:Theory and practice[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 1999, 60(1):195-228.
[32] Armendáriz B, Morduch J. The economics of microfinance[M].Cambridge,Massachusetts:MIT press, 2010.
[33] Aghion D, Armendariz B, Gollier C. Peer group formation in an adverse selection model[J]. The Economic Journal, 2000, 110(465):632-643.
[34] 刘征驰, 赖明勇. 虚拟抵押品、软信息约束与P2P互联网金融[J].中国软科学, 2015,(1):35-46.
[35] Karlan D S. Social connections and group banking[J]. The Economic Journal, 2007, 117(517):52-84.