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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    25 October 2026, Volume 34 Issue 10 Previous Issue   
    Mean-lower Partial Moment Portfolio Selection Based on Performance-based Regularization Method
    Haixiang Yao, Yixue Zhang, Zhongfei Li
    2026, 34 (10):  1-13.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0262
    Abstract ( 45 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1808KB) ( 17 )   Save

    The core of portfolio optimization problem is how to balance return and risk in the process of investment. The mean-variance model is a classical model to solve this problem. However, with the deepening of research, the variance as a risk measure cannot adapt to the real market situation, and the mean lower partial moment model came into being. At the same time, the mean-risk model often confronted the problem of parameter estimation error. Parameter uncertainty and parameter estimation error will have a negative impact on investment decision-making. Therefore, solving this problem has become a hot research direction.It is refered to Ban et al. [Management Science, 2016, 63, 1136-1154] that proposed performance-based regularization (PBR). By adding PBR constraints to the mean variance model and the mean CVaR model, they reduced the parameter estimation error and improved the out of sample performance of the model. The core idea of PBR method is to improve the performance of investment strategy outside the sample by punishing the variance term of risk measurement and expected return estimate.In this paper, their PBR constraints are extended to a more general model, which is mean-lower partial moment (LPM) model. Specifically, the convexity of the mean-LPM model with PBR constraints is proved, so as to ensure that the solution of the optimization problem is globally optimal. Furthermore, the asymptotic consistency of the solution of the optimization problem is proved. In addition, the standard k-fold cross test method is modified, and the optimal parameter values of PBR constraint conditions in real time are updated by using machine learning method and linear backtracking method. Finally, the model in the downward market is put for empirical test.As a result, it is found out that compared with the traditional mean-LPM model, the mean-LPM model with two PBR constraints has higher Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Omega ratio, average rate of return and cumulative rate of return, so as to achieve a better balance between return and risk. In addition, the mean-LPM model combined with PBR constraint performs better than the mean variance model combined with PBR constraint in Ban et al. (2016).In this paper, the PBR method is extended to the general mean-LPM portfolio model, and the effectiveness of the PBR method for solving the parameter estimation error is confirmed. Regularization method has a wide range of applications, and the research of PBR method still has broad prospects. In the next step, the PBR method can be applied to the index tracking problem, or further the nature and other applicable fields of the PBR method can be explored.

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    Financial Statement Fraud Identification Model for Listed Companies Based on Multimodal Graph Representation Deep Learning
    Xuan Zhang, Yujie Wei, Fengzhang Guo, Xusheng Sun, Gang Wang
    2026, 34 (10):  14-27.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1765
    Abstract ( 13 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (3125KB) ( 33 )   Save

    In recent years, financial statement fraud has emerged as a growing concern, with the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE) report underscoring the significant economic losses despite the low incidence of such fraud. This issue highlights the urgent need to build an accurate and efficient model for financial statement fraud detection (FSFD). With the advent of unstructured data and high-dimensional features, researchers are increasingly turning to using multimodal deep learning methods for FSFD. However, existing studies often simply extract and fuse financial and textual modalities, without fully exploiting the complex feature interactions within and between modalities for FSFD. To this end, DLM_MGR, a deep learning method based on multimodal graph representation is proposed, aimed at exploring the feature interactions within and between modalities to enhance FSFD.The DLM_MGR method proposed in this study comprises three key steps. First, different levels of financial features are extracted using Stacked Autoencoders (SAE), and the feature interactions within the financial modality are captured through graph neural networks. This step thoroughly excavates the feature interactions among different levels of financial features within the financial modality, deepening the understanding of the company's financial condition. Second, local semantic features of annual reports are extracted using Word2vec, and the feature interactions within the textual modality are captured through graph neural networks. This step effectively mines the feature interactions among local semantic features within the textual modality, enhancing the comprehension of the text in the annual reports. Finally, a novel gating mechanism is designed based on element-wise average pooling and max pooling layers to capture modality-shared features and modality-specific features between the financial and textual modalities. This step fully explores the feature interactions between the financial and textual modalities, preventing information imbalance between the modalities and thereby improving the effectiveness of FSFD.To verify the effectiveness of DLM_MGR, experiments are conducted using data from A-share listed companies spanning from 2015 to 2022. Eight evaluation metrics are employed to comprehensively assess the model’s performance from multiple dimensions, including Accuracy, Precision, Recall, Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC), F1-score, F2-score, Type I Error Rate, and Type II Error Rate. The results demonstrated that the proposed method outperformed other benchmark methods, achieving optimal results on most metrics across different modalities.To summarize, the DLM-MGR method significantly improves the accuracy and efficiency of FSFD by exploiting the feature interactions within and between financial and textual modalities. The experimental results affirm its high recognition accuracy and computational efficiency, making it feasible for practical applications. It holds significant theoretical and practical value in this research. Theoretically, it enriches the literature on multimodal deep learning in the field of FSFD, providing an analytical framework in terms of shared features and specific features for other research paradigms. Practically, it offers a more effective method to detect financial statement fraud, enabling timely and accurate risk warnings, thereby promoting the healthy development of capital markets. Future research could explore incorporating external company information, such as social media data, and investigate deep clustering methods, such as deep embedded clustering (DEC), to further enhance the effectiveness of FSFD.

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    Prediction of Corn Futures Price Based on Multi-feature Deep Neural Network Model
    Dabin Zhang, Zhimei Zeng, Liwen Ling, Ruibin Lin
    2026, 34 (10):  28-38.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1040
    Abstract ( 11 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (2002KB) ( 3 )   Save

    In China's financial and economic system, the futures market of agricultural products plays an important role in guiding the market to self-regulate and providing efficient information transmission for regulators. Effective prediction of futures prices can help guide agricultural production, monitor the operating risks arising from large price fluctuations, and enhance the predictability and pertinence of the national macro-control policies. In this paper, corn futures are taken as the research object,which is the main variety of grain futures. Considering the non-stationary and non-linear characteristics of its price series and the complex market and non-market influencing factors, a deep neural network model with multi-feature fusion is proposed based on the historical trading data of corn futures and relevant news texts. The model uses Bi-directional Long-term and Short-Term Memory neural network (BiLSTM) and text Convolution Neural Network (textCNN) to extract price features and text features respectively, and then fuses the news emotion feature extracted by SnowNLP to predict the closing price of corn futures one step ahead. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by setting horizontal and vertical experiments. The empirical results show that the fusion of the three features improves the prediction accuracy of the models most obviously in different feature combination schemes. And compared with the four baseline models, the proposed model shows significant performance advantages on MAE, RMSE and R2.

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    The Influence of Media Attention on Mangement's Self-interested Financial Restatements: Based on the Comparison between Family and Non-family Firms
    Xiaolin Wang, Wei Jiang, Wen Shi, Cuicui Cheng
    2026, 34 (10):  39-47.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1870
    Abstract ( 69 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (573KB) ( 21 )   Save

    Using panel data from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed firms between 2011 and 2021, the relationship among family firms, media attention, and management's self-interested financial restatements is investigated, employing multiple linear regression models and other empirical methodologies. The results reveal that compared to non-family firms, listed family firms exhibit a higher probability of engaging in management's self-interested financial restatements. Media attention significantly inhibits such financial restatements among listed companies, with online media playing a particularly prominent supervisory role. Online media not only has an inhibitory effect on listed companies but also demonstrates a stronger constraining effect on family firms. In contrast, we find no significant difference in the governance effect of traditional print media between family and non-family firms. Additionally, the degree of equity balance can weaken the positive relationship between family firms and financial restatements. The empirical results indicate that media attention serves as an important external corporate governance mechanism by influencing the information environment of the capital market. The findings not only expand the external governance perspective in family firm research but also provide empirical support for the information dissemination and supervisory effectiveness of online media in the digital economy era. Moreover, they provide valuable insights for improving the governance mechanisms of listed companies.

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    Trust or Broker? Strategic Analysis of Operation Modes of Data Intermediary
    Lihua Hou, Tengfei Nie, Zizhuo Wang, Jianghua Zhang
    2026, 34 (10):  48-58.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.2378
    Abstract ( 151 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1798KB) ( 84 )   Save

    Data transactions play a vital role in realizing the value of data elements. In recent years, two innovative modes of data transaction have emerged: the broker mode, in which the intermediary acts as a third-party service provider to facilitate transactions between buyers and providers; and the trust mode, in which the intermediary serves as a data hosting service provider to utilize, add value to, and monetize the entrusted data. In this paper, the broker and trust modes are analyzed from the perspectives of data value, data security, and transaction cost. The decision-making of the intermediary and the provider under the two modes is examined, and their strategic preferences are explored. The findings indicate that the trust mode is preferred by both the intermediary and the provider when both data shortage cost and misfit cost are high. Conversely, the broker mode is preferred by both parties when both data leakage cost and the provider’s transaction cost are high, or when buyer’s transaction cost is relatively high. Moreover, consumer surplus is maximized under the trust mode when either transaction cost or data value is high. Effective support and insights are provided for operational decisions in data transactions.

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    A Structured Analysis Method to Clarifying Problem: Double Descent Spiral Method
    Yanzhong Dang, Deqiang Hu, Xilin Yang, Dong Li
    2026, 34 (10):  59-68.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0787
    Abstract ( 9 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1748KB) ( 3 )   Save

    “Clarifying problem” is the premise of solving a problem. However, in reality, the problem is often vague and chaotic at the beginning. It is difficult to recognize the structure and relationship of the problem, which brings great confusion to the solution of the problem. “Clarifying problem” refers to the process of identifying the internal elements, internal relationships and the external factors, external relationships of a problem, for the purpose of structuring the problem. However, there exists no formal and operational method for the “clarifying problem”. In this paper, a formal, systematic and structural analysis method of “clarifying problem” is put forwarded by using the process of structural modeling. The process of clarifying the problem is accomplished through the interactive top-down advancement of the questioning system and the relying system, hence it is named “double descent spiral method” (DDSM). The application of the method is illustrated with the example of improving the evaluation form of science fund.

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    A Study on Brand Attribute Extraction and Personalized Preference Recognition Model Based on Consumer Expressions
    Minghui Qian, Anyi Fan, Yaolin Wan
    2026, 34 (10):  69-79.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.0286
    Abstract ( 123 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1291KB) ( 31 )   Save

    Against the backdrop of an abundant supply of consumer goods and the continuous elevation of consumer demand levels, brands have been positioned as a core factor influencing purchasing decisions. However, in mainstream personalized recommendation systems, users' behavioral data regarding product attributes is primarily relied upon, with brands being simplified to mere identifiers or even completely ignored. As a result, the recommendation logic is reduced to a mere function filter, which is incapable of understanding the symbolic value and emotional connections that are built by brands in the consumer's mind. This limitation is manifested in a triple dilemma: the loss of commercial value, the emergence of user experience pain points, and the homogenization of platform competition. Therefore, how to move beyond product-attribute-level recommendations, delve into and quantify brand characteristics based on consumer mentalities, and thereby identify individuals' personalized brand preferences has been identified as a key research question for the transition from product matching to brand matching.To address this issue, the lipstick category is taken as an example in this study. By analyzing over 200,000 user comments on the Weibo platform, two core types of brand relationships are constructed. The first is Brand User Association, which is measured by using a multi-level attitude identification framework to determine bloggers' emotional tendencies towards brands, followed by the calculation of the overlap of users who hold the same attitude towards two brands. The second is Brand Perceived Similarity, which is based on a brand feature system encompassing 4 main dimensions, 11 sub-dimensions, and 83 style categories. Each brand is represented as a normalized feature vector, with similarity being mapped through vector distance. Based on this, 620 consumers are recruited to conduct genuine preference tests for 30 mainstream lipstick brands in a simulated e-commerce environment. The data are divided into 10 known brands and 20 target brands. For each “user-target brand” pair, a 34-dimensional feature vector is constructed, integrating users' preferences for known brands, the perceived similarity and user association between target brands and known brands, and statistical aggregation features. Finally, multiple machine learning algorithms are employed to train classification models in order to verify their predictive power.The research results indicate that a hybrid collaborative model integrating perceived similarity and user association can be effectively used to identify consumer brand preferences. The analysis reveals that the perceived similarity network reflects the mental competition landscape that is shaped by marketing narratives, while the user association network unveils the market competition landscape that is determined by price and channels. More importantly, significant heterogeneity has been found to exist in consumer preferences: At the group level, average perceived similarity follows a normal distribution, whereas average user association shows a right-skewed distribution, suggesting that consumers seek moderate similarity cognitively but tend to explore across communities behaviorally. At the individual level, as the number of preferred brands increases, both the similarity and association within their brand portfolios are observed to significantly decrease, revealing a strategic shift from homogenized identification to heterogeneous diversification. This study has theoretically expanded the intelligent recommendation perspective by incorporating brand mentalities; empirically revealed the personalized hybrid mechanism driving brand preferences; methodologically innovated a dynamic identification framework combining text mining and machine learning; and practically provided platforms with a viable path for differentiated marketing, transitioning from precise pushing to deep resonance.

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    Open-Closed Mixed Electric Vehicle Routing Optimization of Multi-center Distribution with Time Windows
    Mengyuan Gou, Yong Wang, Siyu Luo, Maozeng Xu
    2026, 34 (10):  80-93.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.2045
    Abstract ( 8 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (4354KB) ( 5 )   Save

    With the substantial increasement of energy consumption in the logistics transportation industry and the scale and cluster development of urban logistics distribution networks, promoting the green transformation of the logistics and transportation industry and deepening the resource integration of urban logistics distribution networks have become the key development directions. The design of open-closed mixed vehicle routes and the application of high-efficiency, low-carbon and low-cost electric logistics vehicles in the urban multi-center distribution network are conducive to the integration of transportation resources in the logistics network, and promote the low-carbon development of the logistics industry. However, due to the widespread phenomenon of unreasonable configuration and unbalanced use for facilities in the urban multi-center logistics distribution network, electric logistics distribution vehicles face problems such as difficult charging and slow distribution time. Thus, in order to overcome the insufficiency of the multi-center electric vehicle routing optimization in combination with resource sharing and open-closed mixed routing design, an open-closed mixed electric vehicle routing problem of multi-center distribution with time windows is proposed. First, a nonlinear function is applied to calculate the mechanical power of electric vehicles by considering the factors such as air resistance, rolling resistance and gravity, and then the energy loss and driving time are combined to obtain the energy consumption calculation method of electric vehicles. Based on the calculation method and resource sharing constraints of charge stations and electric vehicles, the multi-center electric vehicle routing optimization model is constructed to minimize the total energy consumption and operating cost. Second, an improved NSGA-II hybrid algorithm based on the greedy algorithm is designed to solve the model. The hybrid algorithm divides the service period according to the customer time window characteristics, and designs the greedy algorithm based on spatial and temporal distances to generate the initial solutions, which improves the convergence speed of the hybrid algorithm. The ectopic crossover and mutation operations are proposed to realize the iterative updating of the solutions, and the charging station insertion and resource sharing strategies are designed to achieve the reasonable planning of vehicle routes. Additionally, the proposed hybrid algorithm is compared with multi-objective particle swarm optimization, multi-objective differential evolution algorithm, and multi-objective genetic algorithm. The number of Pareto solutions, hyper-volume and mean ideal distance are used as the measurement indicators to further compare and analyze, so as to comprehensively verify the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid algorithm. Third, combined with a multi-center electric vehicle distribution network in Chongqing city, China, the electric vehicle routing optimization scheme is studied, and the optimization results under different open-closed mixed routing designs and different cooperation modes are compared and analyzed. The research results show that compared with the open route design and the closed route design of electric vehicles, the application of the open-closed mixed route design of electric vehicles can shorten the travel distance, reduce the energy consumption and the number of used charging stations. At the same time, the resource integration of multi-center electric vehicle distribution network can effectively save total operating cost, reduce the number of electric vehicles and energy consumption. Therefore, this study can improve the efficiency of resource allocation in the multi-center electric vehicle distribution network, and then can provide theoretical support for the scheduling optimization of the urban electric vehicle distribution network and the construction of new energy city logistics networks.

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    Optimal Dedicated Automated Truck Network Design under Time-varying Road Conditions
    Peng Wu, Shujie Ji, Lijun Tian
    2026, 34 (10):  94-106.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.2085
    Abstract ( 6 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1206KB) ( 16 )   Save

    Scientifically planning dedicated lanes for automated trucks within a transportation network is crucial for ensuring safe and efficient freight transportation using automated trucks. A new optimization problem in designing a dedicated automated truck network is investigated, considering traffic flow variations across different time periods within the transportation network. The dedicated lane setup schemes and automated truck transportation networks for different time periods are proposed, ensuring rapid and efficient automated truck transport while minimizing the negative impact of the dedicated lanes on regular traffic. Firstly, the problem is formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model and subsequently transformed into an equivalent mixed-integer linear programming model. To solve it effectively, a tailored improved adaptive large neighborhood search (IALNS) algorithm with real-number encoding is developed to address the problem’s characteristics. Six tailored operators, such as the repeated proportional destroy operator, are designed to enhance its effectiveness. Finally, extensive numerical experiments show that, in small-scale instances, the average difference between the optimal solutions and those obtained by the tailored IALNS is only 1.40%, and the computation times are all less than 4 seconds. For large-scale instances, compared with the IALNS considering only random destroy and repair operators, the tailored IALNS obtains better solutions, with an average improvement of 8.46%, confirming the effectiveness of the designed operators. Additionally, considering time-varying road conditions, as opposed to ignoring them, reduces negative impacts by an average of 1.36%, verifying the necessity of including time-varying road conditions in the study.

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    The Computation Acceleration of DEA in the Big Data Context
    Qingyuan Zhu, Shuqi Xu, Yinghao Pan, Jie Wu
    2026, 34 (10):  107-117.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1157
    Abstract ( 56 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1050KB) ( 12 )   Save

    Data envelopment analysis (DEA), a data-driven, multi-attribute, nonparametric approach, has been widely applied in performance evaluation, resource allocation, cost analysis, and related fields, and has become an important methodology in operations management. In recent years, the explosive growth in the variety and scale of data generated by the rapid development of modern society has posed new challenges to the DEA methodology, which had previously reached a relatively mature stage. In the context of big data, the increasing number of indicators and decision-making units, together with rising data complexity, has led to a sharp increase in the computational time required by DEA models. Based on a systematic review of existing theoretical and methodological approaches for accelerating DEA computation, as well as their respective advantages and limitations, this study proposes a computationally efficient acceleration algorithm for single-machine, single-thread DEA implementation. The proposed algorithm can substantially reduce the computational time of DEA models and is shown to possess strong data-cleaning capability. The algorithm is applied to real financial statement data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2016 to 2021, as well as two simulated datasets, to validate its data-cleaning capability and further demonstrate its practical value.

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    Bayesian Prior Information Hybrid Regenerative Grey Entropy Weight Model
    Shuyu Xiao, Zhigeng Fang, Yangyang Du, Ding Chen, Cuiping Niu, Chenchen Hua, Yadong Zhang
    2026, 34 (10):  118-127.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1244
    Abstract ( 7 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1145KB) ( 3 )   Save

    The exploration of Bayesian prior information has long been an important and hot topic in the field, especially in the Bayes evaluation process of small-sample experiments, where prior information has a significant impact on the accuracy of the evaluation results. Traditional methods have significant flaws in mining prior information from historical samples of multiple heterogeneous small samples. The fusion using related statistical methods only mines correlations from the prior sample data itself, lacking consideration of comprehensiveness. Methods that consider the fusion of expert knowledge demand too high a level of cognition (knowledge and experience) from experts, requiring evaluation of issues that are difficult to judge and assess. Due to these issues, the effectiveness of prior sample utilization is often unsatisfactory, and may even lead to significant errors.Therefore, a new Bayesian prior information hybrid regenerative grey entropy weight model is proposed. Firstly, sample grey incidence mining is conducted, and adequacy indicators are designed based on the number of sample sub-samples. Secondly, with hybrid of their incidence and adequacy, an importance indicator for the prior sample is established. Then, based on sample importance, a maximum entropy model for weight configuration of regenerated weights of multiple prior samples is constructed. Finally, by weighted fusion regeneration into new prior samples, a more accurate posterior distribution is obtained, effectively addressing the problem of hybrid regeneration of Bayesian prior information.The effectiveness and scientific validity of the model are validated through multiple aerospace practical application cases such as the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, China Academy of Space Technology, and Shanghai Academy of Aerospace Technology. The model in this paper is mainly applied in the reliability design of large and complex equipment in the aviation and aerospace fields including rockets and satellites. Its reliability testing is costly, and the obtainable sample data is small. At the same time, the data exhibits typical characteristics of multiple heterogeneous sources, with low information value density, leading to objective limitations in cognition and randomness. The method proposed in this paper is more conducive to improving the information fusion quality of Bayesian methods in reliability assessment problems, thereby making more correct decisions.

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    Data-driven Strategy Designing for the Online One-way Trading Without Known Price Variation Information
    Wenming Zhang, Na Shu
    2026, 34 (10):  128-139.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.2170
    Abstract ( 10 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (861KB) ( 9 )   Save

    In practical applications, the problem of online one-way trading is widely encountered in areas, including foreign exchange, inventory procurement, advertising placement, product sale, leasing issues, etc. In the online one-way trading problem, 1 unit of some asset is to be sold in n periods by DM (decision makers) to maximize their returns. At period i, the DM must instantaneously determine whether to sell and the quantity to sell, solely relying on current price information pi without any foresight into future prices, pi+1, pi+2,…,pn . Traditional research typically assumes that DM knows the upper and lower bounds or their ratio of price to formulate effective strategy.In order to abandon the assumption that the upper and lower bounds of price changes need to be predicted in advance in the previous research, a new competitive strategy evaluation conception “λ- universal competitive difference” is proposed based on the competitive difference conception (where λ is the risk preference). From the seller's perspective, the optimal strategy for DM is delved into to successfully sell one unit of an asset in at most k transactions over n time periods, with the objective of maximizing returns. Then an optimal online strategy OSUCD is devised with the upper and lower bounds of price changes given by m and M. Then, it is elucidated that under specific case when λ=12, the λ-universal competitive difference degrades into the competitive difference proposed by Wang et al. (2016),the effectiveness of the strategy OSUCD was indirectly proved thereby. Furthermore, OSUCD is upgraded to a data-driven online strategy D-OSUCD that can select appropriate risk preferences λ¯(m,M) based on historical data. Simulation data corroborates the robustness of D-OSUCD's parameter settings. Notably, the DM does not need to anticipate the assumptions of the upper M and lower bounds m of the future price fluctuations in advance, and can instead flexibly set parameters within a reasonable range.Additionally, the data-driven online strategy D-OSUCD is applied, grounded in the λ-universal competitive difference criterion, to the carbon emission trading products of the China Hubei Carbon Emission Exchange (HBEA), China Beijing Green Exchange (BEA), and CEEX China Emissions Exchange (GDEA). These applications further validate the efficacy and robustness of the strategy D-OSUCD. The data-driven online strategy D-OSUCD in this paper can be used to analyze not only online one-way trading but also other online decision-making problems.

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    Supply Strategies of Online and Offline Retailers in Emergencies with Travel Anxiety
    Ying Guo, Xiangyuan Bao, Biao Wang, Qingchun Meng
    2026, 34 (10):  140-152.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1922
    Abstract ( 47 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1562KB) ( 11 )   Save

    In recent years, frequent emergencies—such as geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, and pandemics—always expose consumers to vulnerabilities, hence then have heightened consumer concerns about travel for buying. The online community e-commerce platform can offer a support tool for relaxing travel safety anxiety. Therefore, such anxiety triggers a surge in online demand shifts and prompts retailers to invest in sales support. The sales support investment not only increases demand but also adds to costs. However, how consumer travel anxiety shapes the supply strategies of offline retailers and community e-commerce platforms, as well as the interplay between them, remains underexplored. This gap is addressed by examining optimal supply quantities and sales support investments for offline retailers and community e-commerce platforms under consumer travel anxiety, their interactions, and the impact of offline retailers’ digital transformation on equilibrium outcomes. In order to clarify this, a Cournot competition between an offline retailer and a community e-commerce platform is modeled, where both decide their supply quantities and sale support investments. The demand functions incorporate travel anxiety-driven demand shifts. A game-theoretic framework is employed to derive equilibrium strategies under varying sale support costs and travel anxiety levels. Numerical simulations validate analytical results, and case studies (e.g., Shanghai’s pandemic response, JD Logistics’ smart supply chain) contextualize theoretical findings. A secondary model explores offline retailers’ digital transformation (e.g., online order consolidation) and its impact on equilibriums. The key findings are obtained from the perspectives of supply structure dynamics, travel anxiety levels’ nonlinear impact, and synergistic complementarity between both firms, ect.. Specifically, (1) When sale support costs are low or high, both offline retailers and community e-commerce platforms coexist to supply living materials simultaneously (“dual-supply equilibrium”). At moderate costs, only one entity supplies due to profit asymmetry. (2) Community e-commerce platforms consistently increase supply and sale support investments as travel anxiety rises. While offline retailers exhibit a U-shaped response: the supply quantity and sale support investments first rise (to attract local demand), then fall (due to cost pressures), and rebound post-transition to omnichannel models. (3) The demand surge caused by panic buying promotes both retailers to supply according to their maximum supply capacity, but will not change the supply structure equilibrium. Lower government price controls will also enable offline retailers or community e-commerce platforms to increase the supply of materials. (4) The sale support investment makes offline retailers and community e-commerce platform not only substitutes but also complements for each other, which depends on the competitive force and the sale support cost. Furthermore, in order to cushion against the surge of online demand, the offline retailer would undergo online transformation. Thus, with numerical examples, an extension is made about the supply strategies of omnichannel retailer and community e-commerce platform. The results demonstrate that the retailer’s online transformation decline the supply quantity in online channels, but enhance the supply quantity in offline channel, implying that the retailer’s online transformation may be beneficial if the offline potential demand is large enough. It reveals how to make supply strategies during emergencies with travel panic in this study, providing theoretical references for relevant businesses and departments.

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    Research on Quality Control Strategy of Online Travel Platform Supply Chain Considering Platform Transaction Security Risks under Three Operating Modes
    Peng Xing, Siyu Cai, Guanyu Jiang
    2026, 34 (10):  153-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0810
    Abstract ( 5 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1944KB) ( 3 )   Save

    As information technology becomes increasingly pervasive, the traditional travel service industry is struggling to keep pace with the evolving modernization expectations of travelers. This gap has given rise to the development of the online travel platform supply chain. In light of varying market sizes and platform transaction security risks faced by the online travel service agent (OTA), it is imperative to adopt rational operational modes, implement appropriate marketing efforts, optimize service quality for users, and bolster the online travel platform supply chain members’ profit. Exposing the complexity and multidimensionality of platform operations has become a pressing issue for the sustainable development of the online travel platform supply chain. An online travel platform supply chain comprising an online travel supplier, an OTA platform, and users is constructed. Taking into account the platform transaction security risks and the market fixed demand, profit models are constructed for supply chain members under three operational modes (agency mode, retail mode, and self-operated mode). By employing game theory, the research optimizes service quality control strategies and profits for supply chain members. Finally, through numerical simulation, the impact of platform transaction security risks and market fixed demand on the optimal decisions and profits of platform supply chain members is delved into under three operational modes, and management insights are derived. The results suggest that for the OTA platform, favorable scenario is establishing a self-operated platform. Alternatively, using agency or retail mode can also achieve the sustainable profitability and development. For the travel supplier, the market fixed demand exerts a more significant impact on profit and mode selection than platform transaction security risks. For users, high-quality service, effective marketing efforts, and relatively lower prices can significantly enhance the attachment and loyalty to the platform. This study offers theoretical guidance and serves as a reference for subsequent research on optimizing quality decisions within the online travel platform supply chain, considering multiple OTA platforms and travel suppliers, as well as for the dynamic gaming interactions among supply chain members under complex scenarios.

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    An Improved Kano- and Tolerance-Driven Group Decision Making-Based QFD Method and its Application in Cultural and Tourism Scenarios
    Kuo Zhang, Hui Li, Peide Liu
    2026, 34 (10):  164-174.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.2306
    Abstract ( 14 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1748KB) ( 26 )   Save

    As a new integration of the digital and real economies, digital cultural tourism presents fresh opportunities for the tourism industry. A key challenge is how to effectively leverage digital technologies to empower the transformation and upgrading of tourism enterprises based on evolving visitor needs. Quality Function Deployment (QFD) has proven to be an effective tool for translating Customer Requirements (CRs) into improvements in Technical Characteristics (TCs). However, methodological limitations and modeling gaps remain across QFD’s core stages. In the requirement identification stage, traditional static approaches based on surveys and interviews fail to address the dynamic nature of visitor preferences; although recent applications of text mining and NLP improve automation, the mapping of extracted needs to structured design inputs remains inadequate. In the requirement weighting stage, QFD often applies the Kano model and sentiment analysis to categorize and assign weights to CRs. While this enhances objectivity, there is still no unified standard for weight modeling or classification boundary control. In the technical prioritization stage, although group decision-making and flexible modeling methods have been introduced to handle expert divergences, most studies rely on fixed consistency thresholds, lacking mechanisms and empirical validation for real-world collaborative settings.

    To address these challenges, a QFD approach is proposed based on an improved Kano model and tolerance-driven group decision-making. In the requirement identification and weighting phases, customer needs are first extracted from online reviews using LDA and Word2Vec models, with a manually constructed dictionary. Then, the Kano model is enhanced by incorporating sentiment analysis and TF-IDF principles to categorize needs and assign quantitative weights. Initial weights are dynamically adjusted using prospect theory based on the enterprise’s development stage. In the technical prioritization phase, the classical group decision paradigm is refined by introducing a tolerance-based expert acceptance mechanism to replace fixed consistency thresholds. This yields expert weights and aggregated relation matrices, ultimately producing a consensus-based ranking of technical characteristics. A case study involving a national museum's digital tourism service design validates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

    This study makes the following key contributions: (1) a quantitative improvement to the Kano model that eliminates dependence on traditional Kano surveys; (2) a two-stage weight adjustment mechanism grounded in prospect theory to prevent excessive initial weight distortion; and (3) a tolerance calibration mechanism driven by expert acceptance rates, replacing theoretical thresholds and promoting a data-driven, progressively inclusive group decision process—offering new tools for QFD and similar application scenarios.

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    An Automatic Algorithm Recommendation Approach for the Project Scheduling and Material Ordering Problem with Site Space Constraints Through Machine Learning
    Baofeng Tian, Jingwen Zhang, Zhi Chen
    2026, 34 (10):  175-185.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.2109
    Abstract ( 6 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1217KB) ( 4 )   Save

    The implementation of construction projects involves multiple spaces such as construction sites and prefabricated component manufacturers. How to realize the coordination between on-site activity scheduling and off-site material supply is critical to ensure the smooth execution of these projects. Meanwhile, the cramped site space furtherly renders the parallel execution of activities and limits the materials ordering plan through warehouse capacity. In order to solve the above practical dilemmas, the integrated optimization problem of project scheduling and material procurement under the limited space is explored is investigated in this paper.According to practical scenarios of construction projects with limited site space, the considered project scheduling and material ordering problem is defined. On this basis, considering the precedence relationships between activities, resource availability, inventory dynamic balance equations and site space constraints, the project scheduling and material ordering model with site space constraints is formulated. Through concurrently optimizing activity timetables and material ordering plan, the integrated model aims to minimize the total project cost.In order to solve the proposed problem, the complexity of the problem is analyzed. Based on the NP-hard characteristics of the problem, an algorithm automatic recommendation approach embedded with four meta-heuristics is developed using machine learning. Firstly, an improved serial scheduling generation scheme is proposed based on the problem structure, and four meta-heuristic algorithms are accordingly designed. Secondly, based on the extracted 91 instance features, the performance of five machine learning algorithms is tested, and the decision tree algorithms is selected to build the algorithm recommendation model due to its highest accuracy. Finally, the model parameters that make the approach perform best are determined by grid search method.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, large-scale numerical experiments are carried out based on the instances generated by ProGen and PSPLIB. The effectiveness of the proposed integrated model is verified by comparing with the independent model. The superiority the of developed automatic algorithm recommendation approach is also proved. Besides, comparative experiments among CPLEX, the proposed recommendation approach and other algorithms are set up, and experimental results demonstrate that the algorithm recommendation method based on random forest behaves best on accuracy and solution quality.The solution framework of the PSMOP is constructed by constructing an automatic algorithm recommendation approach embedded with multiple meta-heuristics. Meanwhile, the integrated decision making on both project scheduling and material ordering can provide more comprehensive decision supports for project managers. Moreover, reference values for the research on construction project management is provided.

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    Research on the Threshold and Bargaining Game of Escalation of Commitment between the Government and Investors in PPP Project
    Jiaqi Liu, Haodong Liu, Li Zhang, Jicai Liu
    2026, 34 (10):  186-195.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1134
    Abstract ( 5 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (696KB) ( 4 )   Save

    In PPP project, the escalation of commitments of stakeholders is a common behavioral risk. This risk aggravates the loss of the project, and even cause the failure of the project. Therefore, analyzing the resource input strategy of escalation of commitment of government and investor in PPP projects is crucial for improving project performance. Firstly, the mathematical model is used to construct a threshold model of escalation of commitment of the government and investors based on economic evaluation standards. Then, due to the correlation between the maximum additional resource cost of the government and investors and the internal rate of return of the project, there are differences in the threshold and probability of success for both parties’ escalation of commitment. The government’s proposal of additional investment is taken as an example to discuss the psychological process of bargaining between two parties in two scenarios. Meanwhile, based on game theory, the bargaining game between the government and investors on the commitment is further constructed. Finally, a pilot project of Sponge City in City A is selected as a case to analyze the threshold model and game model through numerical examples. The economic threshold of the escalation of commitment of the government and investors, the negotiation interval of the escalation of commitment, and the optimal resource input of escalation of commitment are determined. It is found that the internal rate of return of project and non-cash income demand of stakeholders are important factors affecting the additional resources of the government and investors, and non-cash income can raise the economic threshold of stakeholder’s escalation of commitment. The findings have important realistic significance for controlling the cost of escalation of commitment of stakeholders and improving the behavior risk governance mechanism of PPP project behavior.

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    Drone Emergency Rescue Network Design with Battery Swap Mode Considering Facility Interruptions
    Yin Xiang, Chenmei Teng, Pei Li, Dan Tan
    2026, 34 (10):  196-208.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2025.0054
    Abstract ( 9 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (4972KB) ( 41 )   Save

    In recent years, while Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have played a significant role in various rescue operations, they are constrained by inherent limitations of short flight endurance. To address this, deploying a network of battery swapping stations (BSS) in post-disaster scenarios allows UAVs to effectively overcoming their range limitations. This context imparts considerable theoretical and practical significance to the study of designing UAV-based emergency rescue networks under a battery-swapping paradigm.Against this backdrop, a novel planning problem is introduced for UAV rescue networks. The problem investigates how to integrally optimize the location of BSS and the flight paths of UAVs, under conditions where BSS are subject to disruptions from secondary disasters. The objective is to maximize the number of rescue demand points a UAV can visit, with the highest possible probability, after departing from its depot. This problem is fundamentally an integration of the interdiction covering location problem, the maximal covering location problem, and the most reliable path problem, requiring simultaneous decisions on BSS locations and UAV routing.This problem is formulated as a nonlinear mixed-integer programming model. To solve the model, it is simplified by constructing a “maximal facility-connected network” and subsequently a two-stage hybrid algorithm is designed. In the first stage, an exhaustive search or a genetic algorithm is employed to search and update the location decision variables. In the second stage, the maximal facility-connected network is generated, and the optimal flight plan is then solved.Finally, the model and algorithm are validated using data from the “9/5 Luding Earthquake.” The results reveal several key findings: (1) Increasing the number of BSS, extending UAV flight endurance, and enhancing flight speed all contribute to improving the coverage of post-disaster rescue demand points. (2) Although increasing the number of BSS improves demand coverage and rescue effectiveness, it paradoxically reduces the reliability of UAV flight paths under disruption scenarios, leading to a trade-off among effectiveness, reliability, and timeliness. (3) Increasing the number of UAV depots (take-off points) can simultaneously enhance rescue effectiveness, reliability, and timeliness. This positive synergistic effect remains robust and is not adversely affected by changes in the number of BSS or UAV flight endurance.

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    Modeling and Optimization of Emergency Counterpart Assistance Relationship Based on Comprehensive Matching Degree
    Ming Liu, Jie Wang, Jie Cao
    2026, 34 (10):  209-219.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.2353
    Abstract ( 10 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1661KB) ( 23 )   Save

    China's counterpart support policy is a national governance approach with unique Chinese characteristics, which has demonstrated significant value in disaster response by enabling the directional flow and optimal allocation of emergency resources (including funds, equipment, and personnel) across affected regions through central government-led strategic planning and paired assistance mechanisms. This facilitates effective disaster mitigation and rapid economic recovery in recipient areas. However, theoretical research on emergency paired assistance lags behind practical applications, creating an academic motivation for this study.Taking a major public health emergency as the background, a multi-periods mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model for emergency paired assistance considering production capacity constraints is developed in this paper. The proposed model is subsequently transformed into an equivalent linear formulation for solvability. Distinct from existing studies, the contributions include: (1) an innovative composite matching function integrating three dimensions—demand fulfillment rate, task equity, and regional connectivity—to evaluate pairwise coordination between donor and recipient regions; (2) a production capacity-constrained multi-period MINLP model grounded in assignment theory, offering a novel perspective for establishing emergency assistance relationships; and (3) a versatile decision framework adaptable to human, material, and financial resource management, with potential applications extending beyond public health crises to earthquake relief, poverty alleviation programs, and other paired assistance scenarios.Computational experiments reveal that high-demand disaster zones exhibit greater sensitivity to resource matching efficiency, while low-demand zones allow synergistic optimization of resource allocation and regional connectivity. Human resources are found to be sufficiently available under China’s nationwide emergency mobilization system, whereas medical equipment and emergency consumables achieve near-100% utilization rates, indicating acute resource scarcity that necessitates accelerated production. Notably, relaxing production capacity constraints for emergency consumables yielded more pronounced improvements in composite matching performance compared to medical equipment.Managerial implications derived include (1) For high-demand disaster zones, “many-to-one” assistance models may outperform traditional “one-to-one” pairings in addressing multidimensional needs; (2) Emergency budgets and production capacity constraints demonstrate diminishing marginal returns on demand fulfillment, advocating for balanced resource allocation to avoid waste; and (3) Emergency resource security strategies should integrate emergency production and inventory management, with supply plans tailored to resource characteristics and demand dynamics for rapid crisis response.

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    Ordering and Freshness-keeping Strategies of Fresh Produce Retailers with Consumer Stockpiling under the Risk of Emergencies
    Bin Dan, Kun Chen, Zhenjiang Chen, Ting Lei
    2026, 34 (10):  220-231.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.2201
    Abstract ( 79 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (812KB) ( 7 )   Save

    The frequent occurrence of sudden events such as heavy rainfall, floods, typhoons, and ice disasters poses significant risks to the supply disruption of fresh produce. Consumers, driven by concerns over potential shortages, tend to engage in stockpiling behaviors to mitigate the risk of supply disruptions. Such behavior leads to an early release of demands, resulting in short-term supply shortages. To address the supply-demand imbalance, fresh produce retailers adopt strategies such as increasing order quantities and maintaining safety inventory to hedge against risks. In practice, the inventory capacity of a retailer is constrained by factors such as warehouse quantity and shelf space, which restrict order volumes and complicate procurement decisions. Additionally, given the perishable nature of fresh produce, the retailers invest in preservation resources to mitigate spoilage losses. In this context, it is of significant practical importance to study how the retailer can optimize ordering and freshness-keeping strategies in response to consumer stockpiling behavior influenced by sudden events.Based on this, a two-stage model of consumer stockpiling behavior under the probability of sudden events and the spoilage rate of fresh produce is constructed, examining the optimal freshness-keeping and ordering strategies of a retailer under different inventory capacity constraints. The results indicate that when inventory capacity is ample, the retailer can adopt differentiated strategies based on the spoilage rate and wholesale price of fresh produce. Specifically, for fresh produce with high spoilage rates and low wholesale prices, a high freshness-keeping and medium ordering strategy is adopted. For fresh produce with moderate spoilage rates and wholesale prices, a medium freshness-keeping and high ordering strategy is optimal for the retailer. For the produce with low spoilage rates and high wholesale prices, a low freshness-keeping and low ordering strategy is preferable. These different strategies enable the retailer to effectively mitigate supply disruption risks while maximizing profits. Conversely, the retailer's strategies exhibit distinct characteristics when inventory capacity is constrained. If inventory capacity is relatively low, the retailer typically adopts a uniform low freshness-keeping and high ordering strategy. This strategic choice is primarily driven by the hard constraint of inventory capacity, where the retailer must maximize market demand satisfaction within his limited inventory. When inventory capacity is relatively high, retailers have more flexibility strategies, allowing them to order either based on his own inventory capacity limit or according to actual demand. Additionally, in terms of the freshness-keeping strategies, the retailer should adopt more diversified and refined strategies based on the differentiated wholesale prices of fresh produce.The realistic scenario of supply disruption risks potentially triggered by sudden events is addressed. Considering the perishable nature of fresh produce, the model introduces consumer stockpiling behavior driven by supply interruption risks into the consumer utility function, and establishes a more comprehensive analytical framework for fresh produce supply chains, thereby expanding related theoretical research. Through quantitative analysis of the mathematical model, the impact of inventory capacity constraints on the operational strategies of fresh produce retailers is revealed, providing theoretical foundations and practical guidance for retail enterprises in making operational decisions under the risk of sudden events.

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    Merchant Promotion Strategy Selection under Platform’s “Sales Task-Traffic Reward” Rule: Price Promotion vs. Customer Acquisition Through Traffic Investment
    Lin Li, Yi Zhong
    2026, 34 (10):  232-243.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1036
    Abstract ( 7 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1345KB) ( 4 )   Save

    The “Sales Task-Traffic Reward” rule is widely implemented across e-commerce platforms in China, where merchants who achieve predefined sales targets within a specified period receive additional traffic rewards from the platform. Based on this background, how newly onboarded merchants adopt two alternative promotional strategies—price promotion (S) and customer acquisition through traffic investment (B)—to comply with the platform’s incentive mechanism is examined. Based on the analysis of the different characteristics of these sales strategies, a basic model under the non-responsive strategy (F) and decision models under the price promotion strategy (S/B) is constructed. The choice of sales strategies is investigated under different rule indicators, as well as the changes in key decisions such as pricing and traffic investment. By comparing these strategies from multiple perspectives, the optimal sales strategy responses of merchants to the “Sales Task-Traffic Reward” rules is analyzed and ideas are proposed for optimizing platform rule indicators. The main results include: (1) The more generous the traffic reward is, the stronger the incentive for merchants to actively respond to the rules. However, if the sales task threshold is too high, merchants' enthusiasm will decrease; (2) The effective thresholds of S and B strategies are positively influenced by the traffic reward. Increasing the sales task harms merchants' profits and platform profits under the S strategy, but the platform can benefit from traffic investment under the B strategy; (3) The S and B strategies can complement each other to some extent. The more favorable the traffic price, the lower the conversion cost, and the more advantageous the B strategy becomes; (4) Platforms should optimize rule parameters by considering the traffic price menu. When the traffic price exceeds certain threshold, platforms should lower the sales task indicators in the rules.

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    Insurer Pricing and Retailer Complimentary Strategy under the Return Freight Insurance Model
    Yang Xu, Chen Dong, Xu Tian, Gongbing Bi
    2026, 34 (10):  244-259.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2025.0224
    Abstract ( 125 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (2178KB) ( 14 )   Save

    Practical data shows that the return freight insurance model has achieved great success in the field of e-commerce and has attracted widespread attention in the academic community, but few studies have examined the multi-agent decision-making interactions and the risk transfer function within this model. In order to further clarify the operation mechanism of the return freight insurance model, a Stackelberg game model involving an insurer, an online retailer, and risk-averse consumers is developed, analyzing the insurer's optimal pricing and the retailer's strategy of offering free return freight insurance. By solving the equilibrium via backward induction, it is found that the optimal insurance price increases monotonically with return freight costs, while its relationship with product matching rate, product cost, and consumer risk aversion depends on specific contexts. The retailer offers free insurance only when the price falls below a certain threshold. Furthermore, it is shown that when return costs are low, this model improves both retailer profit and consumer welfare. However, when return freight costs are high, the cost of providing free insurance becomes substantial for the retailer, who transfers this cost to consumers by setting higher product prices, ultimately harming both the retailer and the consumers. These conclusions are validated through extensive numerical analysis and model extensions, helping to reassess the true role of return freight insurance, establish boundary conditions for its implementation, and provide decision-making insights for e-commerce platform operations.

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    Research on Misreporting Behaviors and Blockchain Introduction Strategies Based on Return Rates and Privacy Concerns
    Shuai Li, Shaojian Qu, Yonghui Cheng, Jiangxia Nan, Ying Ji
    2026, 34 (10):  260-273.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1785
    Abstract ( 57 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1729KB) ( 11 )   Save

    Currently, environmental issues have become the focus of global attention, and green development has become the consensus of all countries. The 14th Five-Year Plan for Green Industry Development emphasizes the improvement of green design promotion mechanisms, and the development and promotion of high-performance, high-quality, lightweight, low-carbon and environmentally friendly products. The need to firmly grasp the primary task of high-quality development and develop new quality productivity according to local conditions was emphasized. New-quality productivity is the quality of advanced productivity in line with the new development concept, and its essence is advanced productivity, as well as green productivity. In order to investigate the problem of declining trust and returns due to uncertainty in consumers perception of product attributes, traditional supply chains, misreporting behaviors incorporating return rates and reputation loss, and blockchain decision-making models.The key questions explored in this paper are to what extent supply chain members are willing to adopt the misreporting behavioral strategy under the return rate and reputation loss, and to what extent they are willing to adopt the blockchain strategy under the consumer privacy concern and blockchain cost; and is it advantageous to the consumers when the members arrive at the equilibrium strategy? How does the blockchain cost and the misreporting factor affect members' ability to reach an equilibrium strategy? And does the increase in consumer trust reduce the adoption of blockchain strategies by business members? In today's digital wave, consumers have an increasingly urgent need to identify the authenticity of goods and are more sensitive to privacy information concerns.Research findings are as follow: (1) When the return rate and privacy concern costs for consumers are below a certain threshold, upstream and downstream members are more inclined to introduce blockchain strategies (misreporting behavior strategies), and under equilibrium strategies, they can effectively increase consumer surplus and the green level of products. (2) The increase in blockchain costs to a certain extent reduces consumer privacy concerns but reduces the willingness of members to adopt blockchain strategies. An increase in the misreporting factor will increase members' consideration of misreporting behavior strategies, but as the return rate increases, it will reduce its efficiency. (3) Under the influence of consumer return rates and privacy concerns, lower consumer trust levels only make upstream and downstream companies willing to adopt blockchain strategies, while moderate trust levels will increase the willingness of upstream and downstream members to adopt misreporting behavior strategies.Management Insights are as follow: (1) For supply chain members, enhancing the comprehensive disclosure of product information increases consumer trust levels, leading to a larger market share. By adopting various technological innovations, green manufacturing efficiency can be effectively improved, green manufacturing costs can be reduced, and products with higher levels of green marketing can be marketed. (2) For consumers, trust in retailers' disclosure of product information should be enhanced, not only stimulating upstream and downstream companies to introduce new technologies, thus enabling consumers to obtain more comprehensive and authentic product information. Consumers should reduce their focus on green products, so that supply chain members are willing to adopt a misreporting factor strategy, enabling consumers to perceive the true green level of products to reduce returns and mitigate reputation loss for members. (3) For government policy formulation, governments should provide cost subsidies for supply chain members adopting blockchain, not only promoting members' stronger willingness to introduce blockchain strategies and facilitating enterprises' digital transformation, but also effectively reducing consumers' privacy concerns.

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    Research on the Strategies to Improve Manufacturer’s Remanufacturing Capabilities Considering Resale by the Recycler Based on a Closed-loop Supply Chain
    Zenglu Li, Yuan Yao, Xiong Xiong
    2026, 34 (10):  274-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1191
    Abstract ( 5 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1302KB) ( 3 )   Save

    Recycling and remanufacturing have always been seen as a favourable and effective way of dealing with the problem of used products. Recyclers often collect used products from the consumer market and sell them to manufacturers for remanufacturing at a certain transfer price. In recent years, with the growth of the secondhand economy, some recyclers have begun to resell recycled goods in the form of secondhand products. The resale of used products by recyclers reduces the amount of remanufactured material available to manufacturers, at which point the incentive for manufacturers to improve remanufacturing capabilities becomes the central question. Thus, the impact of the resale behavior of the recycler on the manufacturer’s remanufacturing capacity improvement strategy is studied. The recycler resells recycled goods as secondhand products, which on the one hand reduces the supply of remanufactured materials to the manufacture, and on the other hand competes with the manufacturer in the consumer market, whether this behavior will force manufacturers to enhance their remanufacturing capacity and set higher transfer prices to induce recyclers to reduce re-sale to alleviate the competition in the market, and at the same time, whether it can stimulate recyclers’ recycling enthusiasm to improve recycling rate. The benchmark model of no resale is established, and then the game model considering resale of the recycler is constructed. The models are solved by dynamic game and nonlinear programming theory. It is found that: Firstly, for the recycler, resale has been shown to encourage the recycler’s enthusiasm for recycling, hence increasing the recycling amount and forcing the manufacturer to set a higher transfer price. Therefore, the recycler must choose the resale strategy under the constraint that the resale is permitted. Second, for manufacturers, remanufacturing capacity is boosted if the manufacturer's remanufacturing cost savings are low, while remanufacturing capacity is not boosted if the remanufacturing cost savings are high. In addition, the analysis of recycling rate and consumer surplus reveals that recyclers’ re-selling to force manufacturers to enhance their remanufacturing capacity helps to increase the recycling rate and consumer surplus, which can achieve a win-win situation for enterprises, the environment and consumers. It is expected that this research can provide some reference for manufacturers to improve remanufacturing capacity and provide theoretical basis for recyclers to formulate resale strategies.

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    Research on the Blockchain Adoption Strategy of Supply Chain under Different Remanufacturing Modes
    Peng Gao, Jiajia Nie, Yumei Lu, Shuyang Zhu
    2026, 34 (10):  287-300.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1725
    Abstract ( 2 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1712KB) ( 16 )   Save

    In practice, although remanufactured products compete with new products, well-known Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) typically engage in remanufacturing operations with Third - Party Remanufacturers (TPRs) through two cooperation models: outsourcing and authorization due to considerations of brand image, intellectual property, and distribution channels. The two models exhibit substantial differences in pricing authority and profit allocation, making the selection of remanufacturing modes strategically critical. Concurrently, consumer ambiguity regarding the quality attributes of remanufactured products has heightened interest in blockchain technology. Some OEMs employ blockchain systems to provide TPRs with certification services that enhance consumer trust. However, persistent biases against remanufactured products and blockchain implementation costs not only undermine TPRs’ motivations for blockchain adoption but also amplify the complexity of operational mode selection for both parties, thereby diminishing blockchain’s potential value. Existing research rarely integrates the analysis of cooperative models in remanufacturing supply chains with blockchain adoption strategies.Game theory integrated with decision optimization approaches and computer simulation methods are employed to systematically investigate blockchain adoption strategies between OEMs and TPRs under different remanufacturing modes. First, based on blockchain’s role in enhancing consumer trust, inverse demand functions are derived for new and remanufactured products with/without blockchain hrough consumer utility analysis combined with the critical payment threshold approach. Second, considering factors including end-of-life product collection costs, remanufacturing cost savings, and blockchain implementation expenses, four decision models are constructed and solved corresponding to different operational modes and blockchain strategies: outsourcing without blockchain (ON), outsourcing with blockchain (OB), authorization without blockchain (AN), and authorization with blockchain (AB). Third, by analyzing the equilibrium solutions, blockchain’s impacts on remanufactured product pricing, market demand, and economic profits are examined, revealing distinct blockchain adoption motivations under outsourcing versus authorization modes. The preference mechanisms for cooperative modes are further elucidated through dual perspectives of economic benefits and blockchain value creation. Finally, extended investigations evaluate supply chain performance and mode selection under hybrid blockchain strategies.The research findings reveal that under both outsourcing and authorization modes, blockchain adoption facilitates a “win-win” scenario by increasing remanufactured product quantities when unit blockchain costs remain below a critical threshold. However, the increase in unit blockchain costs may transform it into either a “conflict-of-interest” trigger or even a “lose-lose” proposition. From an economic profit perspective, OEMs consistently prefer outsourcing regardless of blockchain adoption status. Yet regarding blockchain’s economic value creation, OEMs may favor authorization mode only when blockchain costs are relatively high. For TPRs, remanufacturing mode preferences depend on four critical parameters: remanufactured product valuation discounts, blockchain-driven trust enhancement, unit blockchain costs, and end-of-life product recovery cost coefficients. Hybrid blockchain strategies demonstrate dual advantages in boosting remanufactured product demand while reducing blockchain-associated pricing premiums. Such strategies are mutually preferred by both OEMs and TPRs unless confronted with exceptionally high recovery cost coefficients. Theoretical and managerial implications for optimizing remanufacturing closed-loop supply chain operations are provided while enhancing synergistic value creation across economic and environmental dimensions. It is also conducive to the promotion of blockchain technology under complex conditions, and provides a reference path for the digital and green transformation of manufacturing enterprises.

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    Research on the Impact of Market Matching Degree and Customer Fairness Sensitivity on Dual Channel Queuing Services
    Jihong Li, Zijian Zhang
    2026, 34 (10):  301-311.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1751
    Abstract ( 4 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1231KB) ( 10 )   Save

    Under the background of digital transformation, the service industry is increasingly adopting an "online-offline" dual-channel service operation model, which reduces customer waiting time and improves service efficiency. However, the lack of transparency in online channels affects the matching between products/services and customer needs, and the existence of online channels reduces the experience of offline customers, leading to a sense of unfairness among them. From the perspective of customer waiting time, the impact of product/service-market fit and customer fairness preferences on the utility of dual-channel customers is studied, taking into account the cloud queuing behavior (remote waiting) of online customers. By maximizing the utility of online customers, the optimal arrival time for online customers is derived. Based on this result, a comparison of utility between online and offline customers is conducted. Depending on the degree of product/service-market fit and the parameter of customer unfairness aversion, the dual-channel queuing service is further divided into three modes: online customer dominance, offline customer dominance, and mutual non-dominance, with implementation conditions for each mode specified. Finally, the game behavior of customers regarding whether to choose the service under different service modes is analyzed, and the enterprise profit function is maximized, revealing the optimal choices of customers and the optimal pricing for the enterprise. The research indicates that: 1) For products/services with high matching degree or high promotional authenticity, a dual-channel operation is better suited to an online-customer-dominant model, as this approach is more conducive to achieving digitalization in promotion and service delivery; 2) For products/services with moderate matching degree or low promotional authenticity, the choice of dual-channel operation mechanism is significantly influenced by inequity aversion: if the customer group has a strong perception of unfairness, an offline-dominant mode is more appropriate; conversely, an online-dominant or mutual non-dominant mode is preferable; 3) Under a dual-channel queuing service mechanism, corporate pricing is generally lower than in traditional single-channel models, though no consistent pattern is observed in corporate profits.

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    Demand Information Sharing and Supplier Encroachment Strategy in the Fresh Retail Platform
    Shuai Yan, Xia Liang, Yanhong Sun
    2026, 34 (10):  312-322.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1990
    Abstract ( 6 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1301KB) ( 3 )   Save

    It aims to examine the platform’s information sharing and supplier’s encroachment strategy in a fresh food e-commerce platform supply chain consisting of an e-commerce platform enterprise and a supplier in this paper. To the end, four scenarios of whether the supplier encroachment and whether the platform shares demand information or not are considered, the corresponding decision models are constructed. The results show that: (1) In the case of the exogenous encroachment strategy, when the supplier chooses not to encroach, the platform has incentives to share information if the freshness sensitivity of consumers is high; when the supplier chooses to encroach, information sharing hurts the platform’s profit only when both the freshness sensitivity of consumers and the commission rate are below the specific threshold. In addition, it is found that the supplier always benefits from the information sharing. (2) In the case of the endogenous encroachment strategy, the supplier’s encroachment strategy depends on the commission rate, freshness sensitivity of consumers and information accuracy. (3) Under certain conditions, the supplier’s encroachment strategy increases the platform’s revenue and leads to the win-win situation. The research findings provide a scientific reference basis for information sharing and encroachment strategy in the fresh food e-commerce platform supply chain.

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    Impact of Consumer Market on the Dynamic Recovery Strategy of Disruption in Local Manufacturing Industry under Different Supply Chain Structures
    Jiayi Sun, Weilong Du
    2026, 34 (10):  323-336.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.2383
    Abstract ( 4 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1826KB) ( 9 )   Save

    Amid the ongoing backlash against economic globalization, the instability and uncertainty of global supply chain systems have risen significantly. With the growing momentum of de-globalization in Western economies and the increasingly vocal advocacy for trade protectionism among Western politicians, China's domestic enterprises have encountered frequent supply chain disruptions. These unilateral actions have not only hindered China's participation in international trade cooperation but also posed serious challenges to the sustainable development of its manufacturing sector. Nevertheless, the innovation-driven “dual circulation” strategy—emphasizing domestic market potential—has created new opportunities for domestic manufacturing transformation. Against this backdrop, how local manufacturers can effectively leverage domestic consumption to recover from supply chain disruptions, and how different recovery scenarios and supply chain structures shape recovery outcomes are investigated.A dynamic game model is constructed involving three key actors: domestic manufacturers, domestic suppliers, and non-domestic suppliers. The model incorporates two representative recovery scenarios—low-end upgrading and high-end extension—and further integrates the evolution of consumer patriotism and different market response conditions. The decentralized and equity-sharing supply chain structures are compared to analyze the dynamic recovery paths and time differences among supply chain members and the overall system.The main findings are as follows (1) Under both supply chain structures, recovery efforts by participants exhibit a decreasing trend over time; however, when disruptions persist and consumers have a strong memory coefficient of patriotic sentiment, the memory effect positively influences recovery efforts.(2) While consumer patriotism does not directly interact with the decision-making of manufacturers or domestic suppliers regarding effort levels, it does cause differentiated impacts on profit recovery. (3) In both recovery scenarios, greater consumer acceptance of new domestic products tends to crowd out original product lines, thereby weakening overall recovery effort across the supply chain. (4) The influence of marketing recognition on manufacturer recovery time exhibits scenario-dependent effects: it facilitates recovery under high-end extension but hinders it under low-end upgrading. (5) Compared with the decentralized structure, the equity-sharing structure better balances the recovery timing between manufacturers and domestic suppliers and alleviates financial risk for suppliers in the early stage of low-end upgrading. However, it also weakens the positive effect of consumer patriotism on system recovery. (6) From the perspective of system-wide profit recovery, the manufacturer consistently acts as the bottleneck, with a pronounced “short board effect.” This is particularly evident in the equity-sharing structure, where manufacturers demonstrate a more significant free-riding tendency, especially under the high-end extension scenario.

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    The Impact of Government Intervention on Quality Behavioral Decision-making in the Chinese Herbal Medicine Supply Chain
    Yakun Li, Haiju Hu, Huiye Dong, Yu Bi, Ruike Wang
    2026, 34 (10):  337-349.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2025.0055
    Abstract ( 7 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (4628KB) ( 11 )   Save

    Chinese herbal medicines, as the starting materials for Chinese traditional medicine tablets and Chinese traditional patent medicine, its quality is directly related to the clinical efficacy of Chinese medicine and the revitalization and development of Chinese medicine cause in China. However, the quality of Chinese herbal medicines in China is still worrying. The Annual Report on Drug Quality Failure Data released by Yaozh.com shows that Chinese herbal medicines are the hardest hit area of drug quality failure. As a social problem involving the government, enterprises, farmers and consumers, the quality of Chinese herbal medicines is difficult to be solved by the market mechanism alone, which requires the government to play the role of a national management department and carry out government intervention. Therefore, how government intervention will affect the quality behavior decisions of Chinese herbal medicine supply chain members and how the government should choose the intervention strategy to promote the quality improvement of Chinese herbal medicines have become urgent questions to be answered.Aiming at the Chinese herbal medicine supply chain in which farmers have the adulteration behavior, game models of the Chinese herbal medicine supply chain are constructed under four government intervention strategies, namely, non-intervention, cash subsidy intervention, inspection penalty intervention, and combination of cash subsidy-inspection penalty intervention. Based on the equilibrium results of the four models, firstly, the marginal conditions for farmers to abandon adulteration under different intervention strategies are obtained. Secondly, the impact of government intervention strategies on the quality behavior decisions of the Chinese herbal medicine supply chain members is analyzed. Finally, the operational differences of the Chinese herbal medicine supply chain under different intervention strategies are demonstrated and the choice option of government intervention strategy with the optimal quality enhancement effect is given. In addition, the above models are extanded to test the model's robustness and some new significant conclusions are obtained.The main findings of this paper are as follows: 1) Government intervention is necessary for the Chinese herbal medicine supply chain, and there are threshold conditions for all three intervention strategies to make farmers abandon adulteration behavior. 2) When the government intervenes in the Chinese herbal medicine supply chain, whether it is strengthening the subsidy for the quality inspection and testing costs of Chinese medicine enterprises or strengthening the inspection penalty for the sale of low-quality Chinese herbal medicines of Chinese medicine enterprises, it will be conducive to the governance of the farmers' adulteration behavior. When the government's subsidy or inspection penalty reaches the threshold, the farmers will abandon adulteration. 3) The combined intervention strategy superimposes the effects of cash subsidy intervention and inspection penalty intervention on the adulteration behavior of farmers. The government should choose the combined intervention strategy to intervene in the Chinese herbal medicine supply chain. Moreover, under the combined intervention strategy, the government can set a high level of subsidy to allow Chinese medicine enterprises to obtain more profits while suppressing the farmers' adulteration behavior, which will contribute positively to the healthy development of the Chinese herbal medicine industry. 4) When both farmers and Chinese medicine enterprises engaged in adulteration, the government should not only make the subsidies or penalties reach the threshold, but also guide consumers to pay attention to the claims, in order to eliminate the adulteration behavior of both parties.Firstly, it can contribute to the development of quality management theory in the Chinese herbal medicine supply chain. Secondly, it can provide theoretical references for the government to choose intervention strategies. Finally, it can provide a lesson for subsequent similar studies in data collection and simulation application.

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    Corporate ESG Investment Strategies under Dual Uncertainties: Competition and Signaling Effects
    Jingling Liu, Yuxin Shi, Jiaguo Liu
    2026, 34 (10):  350-361.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.2304
    Abstract ( 76 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1103KB) ( 18 )   Save

    Against the backdrop of global sustainable development, companies' environmental, social, and governance (ESG) has become a key strategy for addressing environmental challenges, achieving sustainable development goals, and building long - term competitive advantages.Bearing in mind the uncertainty of the current economic environment, as well as the strategic uncertainty caused by the exclusivity of competitive and signaling effects in corporate ESG practices, a theoretical model is constructed using global games and incorporates higher - order beliefs to capture the “interactive rationality” of strategic interactions between enterprises, examining their ESG investment strategies under environmental and strategic uncertainties.Contrary to traditional Bayesian games where participants' payoffs are independently distributed and fully known, global games relax the assumption that the payoff structures of participants are common knowledge under complete information. Participants cannot accurately estimate the payoffs of the game but receive a noisy private signal about the payoffs, the distribution of which is public information. By combining private and public information to infer others' beliefs, participants assume any payoff is possible before observing the signal. This relaxation ensures a unique equilibrium in noisy games, avoiding the issue of multiple Nash equilibria.The results reveal that, contrary to intuition, environmental uncertainty helps promote corporate ESG investment. The decomposition and path analysis of the effects of strategic uncertainty on corporations show that when the competitive effect is relatively small, companies will invest in ESG as long as they observe a sufficiently high return signal. However, when the competitive effect is significant, a company’s ESG incentive depends on the size of the investment cost. Particularly, when the investment cost is at a medium level, the company's investment incentive fluctuates in an “N” shape as its return belief increases. Additionally, the signaling effect of ESG provides a constant compensatory role in corporate investment incentives, and consumer learning positively moderates this compensatory effect. Moreover, government subsidies for corporate ESG investments increase the incentive for companies to invest in ESG, while the establishment of higher environmental quality standards has the opposite effect. The conclusions of this study have significant theoretical and practical implications for the government in formulating effective ESG incentive mechanisms and related supporting policies.

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    Emission Reduction Technology and Pollution Rebound Effect of Enterprises under Emission Trading System
    Guodong Yi, Qing Liu, Shuting Yi, Xiaohong Chen, Jian Ren, Xuesong Xu
    2026, 34 (10):  362-371.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1075
    Abstract ( 56 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1507KB) ( 24 )   Save

    The effectiveness of emission trading depends on how quota constraints shape emission-right prices and how these prices further affect firms’ technology adoption, output decisions, individual emissions, and aggregate emissions. How heterogeneity in firms’ baseline pollution intensity affects their choices of emission-reduction technology under an emission trading mechanism, how these technology choices influence output decisions and market-level pollution emissions, and how the optimal total quota can be determined from the perspective of social welfare maximization are examined. To address these questions, a profit-maximization model is constructed for heterogeneous firms under emission trading. By comparing firms’ optimal profits with and without technology adoption, the conditions under which firms choose emission-reduction technology are derived. The results show that technology adoption is heterogeneous across firms: firms with intermediate pollution intensities are more likely to adopt emission-reduction technology, whereas firms with relatively low or high pollution intensities do not adopt it. Based on these technology adoption intervals, firms’ optimal output under different technology choices is derived, individual emissions are caculated according to firms’ post-choice pollution intensity and optimal output, and individual emissions are aggregated to obtain total market emissions. The results indicate that emission-reduction technology does not necessarily reduce aggregate pollution emissions. When the reduction in unit emissions is sufficient to offset the additional emissions caused by output expansion, technology adoption generates a technological emission-reduction effect; otherwise, it leads to a pollution rebound effect. The output analysis further shows that aggregate output decreases as the equilibrium price of emission rights increases, while the effect of the post-adoption emission coefficient on aggregate output depends on market conditions. Consumer surplus, firm profits, and environmental damage are incorporated into a social welfare maximization framework to derive the optimal total quota and its endogenous relationship with the equilibrium price of emission rights. By linking quota constraints, emission-right price formation, heterogeneous technology adoption, output adjustment, aggregate emissions, and optimal quota design, a theoretical explanation is provided for heterogeneous firm responses and pollution rebound under emission trading, and implications are offered for improving quota allocation, price formation, and pollution rebound prevention.

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    Prediction Method of Industrial Carbon Emissions under Multiple Driving Factors and Small Samples
    Xiaofan Lai, Zeyu Zhang, Xiutian Shi, Weiguo Zhang
    2026, 34 (10):  372-385.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.2065
    Abstract ( 8 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (5603KB) ( 13 )   Save

    Accurately predicting the total carbon emissions of industries and identifying the key driving factors of carbon emissions are crucial for decision-making in carbon emission control, significantly contributing to China's “dual carbon” goal. However, the accounting process of carbon emission data in China started relatively late and is characterized by small samples, multiple driving factors, high volatility, and non-monotonic patterns, which makes precise predictions particularly challenging. To enhance both the feature selection and generalization capabilities of prediction models under conditions involving small samples and multiple driving factors, a novel method for predicting industrial carbon emissions is proposed.This method mainly consists of three modules as follows:(1) Feature Engineering Module: It uses the Deep Q-Network (DQN) learning method to analyze the correlation between higher-order cross features and carbon emissions sequences, extracting the driving factor sequence that best characterizes the industrial carbon emission trend, thereby avoiding interference from redundant factors during the information integration of the prediction model.(2)Parameter Optimization Module: The Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA) is employed to optimize the penalty parameter c and kernel parameter g of Support Vector Regression (SVR), improving the model training performance and enhancing its generalization capability.(3)Prediction Module: Based on the state features St output by DQN with St={f1,…, fn} representing the state of the n driving factors fi at the t-th iteration, and based on the optimal parameters c and g provided by SSA, the widely used SVR model is selected to train and predict the industrial carbon emission sequence. The resulting model based on SVR is able to achieve accurate predictions for industrial carbon emissions.The data used in this study are from China's construction and transportation industries from 2005 to 2020, and are sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets (CEADS) and the China Building Energy Conservation Association. During the numerical experiment, cross-validation and multi-step time series forecasting are used to conduct 2-step, 3-step, and 5-step prediction experiments, resulting in a total of 18 experiments. The numerical results reveal that the proposed predicting method surpasses traditional predicting methods, such as LSTM, ELM, GRU, BP, etc., demonstrating greater robustness and predictive ability, and achieving more precise and effective forecasts of industrial carbon emission trends characterized by small samples and multiple driving factors.

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    Comparative Study on Coal Consumption Prediction Models of Thermal Power Units Based on Feature Selection
    Hao He, Jian Zhou, Lei Zhu
    2026, 34 (10):  386-396.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1457
    Abstract ( 6 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (2596KB) ( 3 )   Save

    The intermittency and uncertainty of clean energy have increased the operational complexity of the power generation system. It is necessary to utilize thermal power units with peak load regulation capability to balance the fluctuation of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, thereby enhancing the overall stability of the grid. Establishing an accurate and effective coal consumption prediction model for thermal power units is of great significance for the efficient operation of thermal power enterprises. The method used in this paper is based on the operational big data of thermal power units, considering the high-dimensional and strong coupling characteristics of the data. Firstly, clustering algorithms are employed to divide operational conditions. Secondly, feature selection methods are applied to process the dataset, reducing data dimensionality and the risk of overfitting. Finally, ensemble tree models are established for the intelligent prediction of coal consumption in thermal power units. By analyzing the prediction effects of different models, it is found that the coal consumption prediction performance of various machine learning algorithms varies under different operational conditions of thermal power. Therefore, when managing coal consumption, it is necessary to select machine learning algorithms with high prediction accuracy based on the differences in operational conditions to maximize the coal-saving effects brought by the algorithms.

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    Incentive Effect of Government Preferential Policies on Enterprises' Green Technology Innovation Investment
    Qianzhou Deng, Yongjian Li, Lipan Feng, Weilong Li
    2026, 34 (10):  397-408.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1514
    Abstract ( 3 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (2187KB) ( 3 )   Save

    The encouragement of enterprises to invest in green technology innovation through preferential policies by the government is regarded as an important approach to reducing the environmental impact of industrial production and product consumption. The incentive effects of preferential policies on enterprises' investment in green technology innovation are investigated in this paper, and issues of potential underinvestment in green technology innovation by enterprises, as well as the dilemma of target deviation that the preferential policies may face, are analyzed. Constraint optimization theory and multi-dimensional numerical simulation are employed in this study to solve for the optimal decisions of enterprise green technology innovation investment and product pricing, and the incentive boundaries of preferential policies for the optimal decision-making of green technology innovation investment are discussed. Based on economic and technological motivations, three types of ineffective incentives and one type of effective incentive are summarized, with the statistical characteristics of incentive effects derived through simulation. The analysis is expanded to verify the potential incentive paradox that may exist in preferential policies, and two product characteristics that require focused attention in the design of government sustainable incentives and the transformation of enterprise sustainable production are identified. Policy recommendations for sustainable governance by the government and management insights for sustainable operations are provided in this paper.

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    Integrated Pricing Strategy Based on Demand Side Management via Two Kinds of Time Slots
    Zeyi Zhu, Yan Gao, Xiaodong Ding
    2026, 34 (10):  409-419.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1540
    Abstract ( 7 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1169KB) ( 5 )   Save

    The real-time pricing in the smart grid can adjust the price dynamically according to the electricity demand, which guides the users to adjust the pattern of electricity consumption via price signals. It is one of the most direct methods, which balances electricity supply and demand and promotes the efficient use of energy. Real-time pricing method is based on single-time slot and multi-time slots by periods. Multi-time slots pricing determines the price of each time slot in a cycle in advance, and has the advantage of simultaneous interaction of global information in multiple time slots, which helps users to determine their electricity consumption plans in advance. Single-time slot pricing determines the price during each time slot and has the advantage of real-time information interaction, which enables users to adjust their energy utilization instantaneously in response to demand. However, single-time slot pricing tends to lead to peak and valley shifting, and multi-time slots pricing cannot adjust electricity consumption in real time. In order to avoid the drawbacks of using one pricing mechanism alone, an integrated pricing based on social welfare maximization model that characterizes both multi-time slots and single-time slot is established. The fossil energy generation is considered during multi-time slots pricing, and renewable energy generation and users’ behavioral uncertainty are considered during single-time slot pricing. In the implementation of the proposed pricing mechanism, the multi-time slots pricing problem is solved to determine the electricity price for each time slot before the cycle, then the single-time slot pricing problem considering the buying and selling of electricity between the users and the supply side is solved to determine the electricity price during each time slot. Wherein, the dual approach is utilized to solve the proposed multi-time slots pricing model and single-time slot pricing model, respectively. The simulation experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed integrated pricing mechanism. It is concluded that: (i) Compared with the social welfare maximization model using single-time slot pricing or multi-time slots pricing, it improves social welfare significantly. (ii) Under integrated pricing mechanism, users can obtain the global information of electricity price and make the electricity plan in advance. Then, users adjust electricity consumption in real time. Thus, users can increase their electricity consumption utility, reduce the waste of electricity resources, and obtain greater welfare.

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    Net Load Forecasting and Dynamic Power Dispatch Considering the Synergistic Control of Carbon Emissions and Air Pollution
    Qi Sima, Siyue Yang, Yukun Bao
    2026, 34 (10):  420-432.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1826
    Abstract ( 6 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (2017KB) ( 3 )   Save

    Renewable energy integration and the control of air pollutants and carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation are the primary pathways leading to the green transformation of the power system. Taking a regional grid consisting of wind power plants and coal-fired plants as an example, a hybrid net load forecasting method is proposed incorporating wind power and system load fluctuation characteristics. Based on the proposed hybrid forecasting method, NRMSE is reduced by 4.8% and 9.5% on average compared to direct forecasting and indirect forecasting. A Gaussian model is then used to fit the forecasting error, and a dynamic dispatch model is constructed that considers the uncertainty of the net load and various emission control measures. With the results of the above models, the effects of different emission control policies on power dispatch plans are analyzed and compared with each other. The results indicate that the "air pollution reduction" and "carbon reduction" of the power system can be synergistically managed in the scheduling process. That is, measures to control carbon emissions can simultaneously reduce air pollutants, and vice versa. Furthermore, compared with the non-cooperative carbon emission reduction mode among power generation enterprises (units), allowing power generation enterprises (units) to share carbon emission rights through transfer or trading can further optimize the allocation of system resources and reduce the cost of abatement. Additionally, compared with controlling the total amount of air pollutants emitted, the spatial-temporal distribution strategy accounting for meteorological and ecological differences, can more effectively mitigate the impact of the power system on neighboring habitats and achieve targeted improvement of air pollution. In particular, under the spatial-temporal distribution strategy, the power system's contribution to the pollution level in heavily polluted areas has dropped from 53.7% to 37.4%, effectively improving the level of accurate air pollution control, effectively improving the level of precise air pollution control.

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