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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    25 May 2025, Volume 33 Issue 5 Previous Issue   
    Research on Risk Spillover Effect, Impact Effect and Risk Early Warning in China's Financial Market
    Chao Liu, Fengfeng Gao, Mengwan Zhang, Qiwei Xie
    2025, 33 (5):  1-12.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0521
    Abstract ( 249 )   HTML ( 29 )   PDF (5360KB) ( 393 )   Save

    Due to the complex dynamic evolution of correlations within financial systems, the diversified, multi-channel characteristics of financial risk contagion and its spillover effects have become increasingly prominent. Concurrently, the challenges associated with systemic financial risk prevention and control have intensified, making effective risk management a critical issue requiring urgent solutions. This study investigates China's money market, capital market, foreign exchange market, gold market, and real estate market. Firstly, we employ generalized forecast error variance decomposition and complex network analysis to examine risk spillover effects in China's financial markets from both static and dynamic perspectives. Subsequently, a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model is utilized to explore the impact of macroeconomic conditions, micro-level individual behaviors, and network topology on systemic financial risk spillovers. Finally, we enhance the prediction accuracy of systemic financial risk by optimizing BP neural network and Logit models through deep belief network architecture. The experimental results reveal three key findings (i) Risk spillover analysis demonstrates that cross-market spillover effects significantly surpass intra-market effects. Volatile economic conditions have substantially altered risk transmission pathways, with the stock market and real estate market emerging as primary risk transmitters and receivers. (ii) Impact effect analysis shows an inverse relationship between macroeconomic performance/micro-level expectations and systemic financial risk. Economic expansion and optimistic consumption expectations correlate with subdued risk spillovers, whereas economic contraction and pessimistic expectations amplify systemic risk propagation. Network structure exhibits complex nonlinear associations with risk spillovers. (iii) Risk early warning tests indicate that deep belief network-optimized models significantly improve systemic risk prediction accuracy, validating the inclusion of these indicators in financial risk warning systems. These findings provide substantial theoretical support for establishing systemic financial risk warning mechanisms, formulating risk prevention strategies, and developing macroeconomic regulation policies. The research holds significant practical value for maintaining stable economic growth and achieving dynamic equilibrium in financial risk management.

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    Incentive Compatible Combined Relief Strategy for Enterprises Financial Distress Based on Perpetual Debt Replacement and Strategic Debt Payment
    Chunping Tan, Xuezhi Qin, Qin Shang, Wenhua Wang, Xianwei Lin
    2025, 33 (5):  13-25.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2292
    Abstract ( 118 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (1421KB) ( 90 )   Save

    In order to avoid bankruptcy and liquidation, debt restructuring is often adopted by enterprises to resolve the debt crisis after falling into financial distress due to liquidity shortage. At present, most of the debt restructuring methods used by Chinese enterprises are debt-equity swap and permanent debt write-down. In this kind of restructuring, debt-equity swap directly leads to equity dilution or even the transfer of controlling equity, and debt write-down results in low debt repayment rate.Based on the existing research results, the interests of enterprises, shareholders and creditors in financial distress are coordinated, and then a combined relief strategy based on perpetual debt replacement and strategic debt service is constructed. Specifically, the research contributions of this paper are summarized as follows.Firstly, the incentive compatibility mechanism of all parties to benefit distribution under financial distress is established. In view of the serious dilution of equity and low debt repayment rate under the debt restructuring plans of Chinese enterprises, perpetual debt replacement is adopted to coordinate the interests of all parties at first. This is expected to reduce short-term liquidity pressure, lock up long-term funds and avoid refinancing risks, thus avoiding bankruptcy and liquidation. Besides, through debt equivalent replacement, it is expected to achieve debt preservation, maintain the existing shareholding ratio and avoid the equity dilution. Meanwhile, the strategic debt service is carried out if coupon of the perpetual debt after replacement cannot be paid in the later stage of the financial distress. The optimal distribution proportion of the enterprise value and the optimal temporary write-down coupon are determined through the Nash game between shareholders and creditors as well.Secondly, a combined relief strategy is established according to the severity of liquidity shortage. Different from formulating debt restructuring plans in a single way or according to the proportion of default debt funds, the financial distress in different stages is alleviated according to the severity of liquidity shortage. In the early stage of financial distress, when the enterprise cannot pay the principal and coupon of the bond due to the shortage of liquidity, the perpetual bond replacement is used to alleviate the financial distress for the first time. With the increasing degree of liquidity shortage, strategic debt service is adopted for the secondary relief of the financial distress that the liquidity after the debt replacement is not enough to pay the perpetual coupon. So, this combined relief strategy is expected to improve the efficiency of financial distress relief and reduce the risk of bankruptcy.Thirdly, the pricing model under the combined relief strategy is established. Based on option pricing method and Nash equilibrium negotiation mechanism, by setting liquidity threshold and asset stock threshold, the value pricing model of enterprise, equity and debt, debt loss estimation model and corresponding applicable conditions are constructed.Fourthly, taking the bankruptcy reorganization enterprises as samples, the applicability of the combined relief strategy is verified, and its role in relieving the financial distress, avoiding equity dilution and improving the debt repayment rate is tested as well.It is found that under appropriate conditions, the financial distress of enterprises can be effectively relieved by the combined relief strategy which is mainly due to two reasons. Firstly, extending the debt maturity through perpetual debt replacement can greatly alleviate the pressure of short-term principal and interest repayment, lock in long-term funds and avoid refinancing risks. Secondly, a loss absorption mechanism for the replaced perpetual bonds is added by the strategic debt service, which further alleviates the liquidity shortage after the perpetual bond replacement. Meanwhile, compared with bankruptcy liquidation and bankruptcy reorganization strategy based on debt to equity swap and permanent write down, the combined relief strategy can increase the enterprise value, equity value and debt value, and realize the Pareto improvement of the overall effect. Besides, under the combined relief strategy, higher asset value volatility has a negative impact on enterprise pricing and leads to credit risk increase, while the game ability of creditors can play a role in optimizing enterprise value and reducing credit risk.

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    A Data-driven Strategy for the Online One-way Trading Problem with Interrelated Prices
    Wenming Zhang, Yulu Du
    2025, 33 (5):  26-33.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1113
    Abstract ( 96 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (888KB) ( 67 )   Save

    The online one-way trading problem is a fundamental element of many economic activities, such as asset sales, inventory procurement, leasing issues, foreign exchange, etc. In the one-way trading problem, 1 unit of some asset is to be sold in n periods by a trader to get a revenue as high as possible. At period j, the price pj is shown to the trader and the quantity to be sold must be decided immediately without knowing the future prices. The trader knows that the price sequence exhibits certain characteristics, specifically pj+1[θ̲pj,θ¯pj], where θ̲ and θ¯ are the lower and upper bounds of the fluctuation range, respectively. For the online one-way trading problems, the perspectives of competitive ratio and competitive difference have been taken to evaluate the performance of online strategies. However, it is still unknown which criterion is more proper for online strategies. In this paper, it is thought that the effectiveness of online trading strategies may be related to specific sequences, that is, in some sequences, online trading strategies based on competitive ratio will outperform online trading strategies based on competitive difference, while in other sequences, the situation is exactly the opposite. Therefore, it is necessary to combine the two criterion for consideration.In this paper, a new criterion called λ-competitive rate by combining the competitive ratio and competitive difference is firstly proposed and a data-driven online strategy design framework that can play the role of historical data is further put forward. Then the framework is applied to the online strategy designing for the online one-way trading problem with interrelated prices. For the online one-way trading problem, the online strategy CROTIP is designed and proved to be an optimal online strategy based on λ-competitive rate criterion. Then, based on CROTIP, a data-driven online strategy is further presented. Applying the data-driven online strategy based on the competitive rate to the carbon emission trading in Hubei, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen emission exchanges, it is found that the strategy can obtain higher average benefits than the optimal online strategies based solely on competitive ratio or competitive difference, implying that the data-driven online strategy based on the λ-competitive rate is more robust and universal.The proposed data-driven online strategy designed based on the λ-competitive rate considers the connection between historical price data and future price data, and thus plays the role of historical data. The framework of the data-driven online strategy proposed in this paper can be used to analyze not only online one-way trading, but also other online problems.

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    Quasi Score-driven Conditional Heteroskedastic Autoregressive Range Model and It's Empirical Study
    Genxiang Shen, Zefeng Zhou
    2025, 33 (5):  34-44.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1331
    Abstract ( 74 )   HTML ( 13 )   PDF (889KB) ( 57 )   Save

    The latent volatility process of asset returns is relevant for a wide variety of applications, such as option pricing and risk management, and return-based volatility models, including GARCH models and related extensions, are widely used to model the dynamics of volatility. Standard return-based models mainly utilize daily returns (typically squared returns) to extract information about the current level of volatility and to form out-of-sample forecast. It is, however, well-known that squared returns are quite noisy proxies of volatility, which further translates to a relatively poor performance of related models. Volatility measures based on high-frequency financial data are far more informative about the “true” volatility than is the square return, but they are readily available for only a small number of assets. A sub-optimal alternative is to employ range-based volatility measures which are constructed from daily high and low prices, and achieve significantly higher efficiency than squared returns.A benchmark model for describing the dynamic feature of range-based measures is the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model and it generally provides far more accurate volatility nowcast and forecast than comparable GARCH-type models. Despite its empirical superiority, CARR model implicitly imposes a strong link between the conditional distribution of volatility measures and the updating equation of volatility, which is not always desirable. More importantly, it formulates volatility as a function of lagged samples, thus ignoring the contemporaneous observations which is apparently more informative about the current level of volatility and the empirically relevant “volatility of volatility” effect, that is, the conditional heteroskedasticity of volatility.Inspired by the real-time GARCH models of Smetanina (2017), the SHARV models of Ding (2023) and the quasi score-driven models of Blasques et al. (2023), a new range-based volatility model, Quasi Score-Driven Conditional Heteroskedastic AutoRegressive Range (QSD-CHARR) model, is introduced that incorporates a quasi score-driven term in the volatility dynamics which generalizes the corresponding term in CARR model, and accounts for contemporaneous information and “volatility of volatility” effect simultaneously. Compared to the news impact curve of CARR model, that of QSD-CHARR model presents a more reasonable pattern. The conditional distribution of volatility measures is derived and the QMLE of parameters is defined. A preliminary Monte Carlo study shows that the QMLE performs reasonably well in finite samples. An empirical application utilizing daily Parkinson estimator series of Shanghai securities composite index and Standard & Poor’s 500 index reveals that a parsimonious QSD-CHARR structure leads to substantial improvements in volatility filtering and short-period volatility forecasting over CARR models, and the results highlight the empirical relevance of contemporaneous information and the conditional heteroskedasticity of volatility.

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    Empirical Study on Spillovers and Regulatory Effects of Low Carbon Development in China Based on Spatial Durbin Model (SDM)
    Feng Chen, Yanyan Yang, Ping Zhang
    2025, 33 (5):  45-53.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0671
    Abstract ( 115 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (588KB) ( 109 )   Save

    In recent years, extreme weather and severe pollution have occurred internationally, and the traditional extensive economic growth model of high investment, high consumption, and high pollution has posed serious challenges to global environmental security. China is a responsible major country, and at the Climate Ambition Summit, solemn goals and commitments of “reaching carbon peak by 2030” and “carbon neutrality by 2060” are made. To achieve the “dual carbon” goal as scheduled, it is necessary to continuously improve the green and low-carbon policy system, urge China's economy and society to achieve systematic changes as soon as possible, regard low-carbon development as an important direction for China's economic development and transformation and upgrading, and use low-carbon development as an important indicator to measure economic development. The research on factors of production, economic development, and low-carbon development has reached certain conclusions, but overall it is still relatively one-sided, lacking relevant research from the perspective of factor endowment, and even less research on the impact of factor endowment on low-carbon development from the perspective of provincial factor endowment within the same analytical framework.Based on China's provincial Panel data from 2011 to 2020, the spatial Durbin model(SDM) is used to comprehensively examine the direct and spillover effects of labor, capital, technology, data and other factors on China's low-carbon development, and the moderating effect of FDI embedding is discussed. It is found that low-carbon development has a positive spatial correlation and significant spatial spillover effects; The direct and spillover effects of labor factors are significantly positive, while the spillover effects of data factors are significantly positive. The direct effect is positive but not significant; The direct effects of capital and technological factors are significantly negative, while the spillover effects are positive; The direct and spillover effects of foreign direct investment are significantly positive, and there is a significant positive moderating effect between them and various factors. By analyzing the endowment status of provincial factors, the government can be more targeted when formulating policies for introducing foreign direct investment, and formulate low-carbon development promotion policies more scientifically. It can provide theoretical support when promoting the implementation of new development concepts.

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    Analysis of China's Health System Efficiency and Convergence Test Based on Regional Heterogeneity
    Baojie Guo, Jianghua Zhang, Xuemei Fu
    2025, 33 (5):  54-64.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1862
    Abstract ( 79 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (1632KB) ( 48 )   Save

    Since the new medical reform in 2009, China's healthcare sector has developed rapidly, with an increasing total amount of healthcare resources and a significant improvement in health level. However, there are also issues of low efficiency and significant regional imbalances in the health system. Based on geographical location, economic development level, and healthcare policy factors, China's healthcare exhibits typical regional characteristics in the eastern, central, and western regions. It is of great practical significance to study the heterogeneity of healthcare system technology levels and the efficiency imbalance in different regions.In this study, the health system efficiency is evaluated combining the non-radial directional distance function with the meta-frontier approach based on the classification of eastern, central and western regions. This method evaluates the meta-frontier efficiency, group frontier efficiency, and technology gap ratio of provinces in different regions from 2010 to 2019. On this basis, parametric and non-parametric methods are used to explore the convergence trends of health system efficiency and technology gap ratio. The data for this study are drawn from China Health Statistics Yearbook and the sample includes 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019.The results indicate that the eastern region is regarded as a technology leader, while the central and western regions are regarded as technology followers; There is no σ-convergence observed in the efficiency and technology gap ratio, indicating the provincial disparities have not narrowed, but there exists conditional β-convergence, indicating a convergence towards their respective steady-state levels over time; The health system efficiency and technology gap ratio exhibit a certain path dependence. Provinces with high efficiency values tend to have upward shifts, while provinces with medium and low efficiency exhibit some path dependence and show minimal changes. Significant upward shifts in technology gap ratios occur only at very low levels, and most technology gap ratios experience minimal variations. Therefore, the government should pay attention to the technological gap in the eastern, central, and western regions, strengthen the innovation in the central and western regions, and explore high-level convergence mechanisms for health system efficiency.

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    Designing a Collusion-proof Reverse Auction Procurement Mechanism
    Tao Liu, Juliang Zhang, Yunhui Liu
    2025, 33 (5):  65-75.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1314
    Abstract ( 91 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (668KB) ( 47 )   Save

    Recent years, more and more firms adopt reverse auctions to procure products and service because reverse auctions are efficient and can help firms reduce their purchase costs. However, the suppliers’ collusion can make the reverse auction to be inefficient and hurt the buyer. Moreover, the suppliers’ collusion is ubiquitous in reality. Then designing collusion-proof reverse auction mechanism is a very important problem for the buyers to adopt them. In this paper, the designing problem of a collusion-proof reverse auction procurement mechanism, which can prevent suppliers from’ collusion, is considered. A buyer wants to buy multi-unit divisible homogeneous goods and some potential suppliers have one-unit supply capacity. As a benchmark, the standard reverse auction model (under which the suppliers bid independently) with multi-unit divisible homogeneous goods is studied, and the suppliers’ equilibrium bidding strategies and the single-price auction implementation are analyzed. Then, the reverse auction procurement model, where the suppliers will collude biding, is studied. And the suppliers’ equilibrium bidding strategy and the buyer’s expectation profit are obtained. Furthermore, a collusion-proof reverse auction procurement mechanism (two-stage auction-negotiation mechanism) is designed. The mechanism is showed to be individually rational, incentive-compatible and to meet quantity constraint. Moreover, the suppliers cannot gain more from collusion under this mechanism, so that they have no incentive to collude biding. Numerical experiments are conducted to show the effectiveness of the collusion-proof mechanism. It can provide guidance for companies’ procurement and reduce the procurement costs.

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    Evolutionary Game Analysis of Government-Enterprise Collaborative Governance in Platform Economy
    Hongyang He, Bin Zhang, Sujun Tian
    2025, 33 (5):  76-87.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1862
    Abstract ( 116 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (1154KB) ( 90 )   Save

    Under the downward pressure of the economy affected by the epidemic, the development of platform economy has become an important path to optimize and upgrade China's industrial structure, accelerate the transformation of new and old drivers, and balance the development of resource elements. How to achieve a standardized, transparent and sustainable governance of the platform economy has become afocus. With the prosperity and development of the platform economy, it has become a widespread consensus to guide the platform to participate in the governance process, and to form a joint force with the government by virtue of its advantages in technology and information. How to effectively play the role of coordinated governance has become an important issue. In this paper, the evolutionary game theory is used to analyze the problem of coordinated governance of platform economy. By considering the influence of random disturbances and continuous strategy sets on the stable evolution of the game system state, and creatively introducing such parameters as government and platform effort level, platform right space and platform service quality output, and the game model of determination and random evolution in the case of binary strategy sets and continuous strategy sets is built gradually, the similarities and differences of the evolution path of collaborative governance in the four theoretical models are compared and analyzed, the path measures are explored to effectively exert the governance effect, and numerical simulation analysis is conducted.It is found that the introduction of random disturbance has improved the difficulty of coordinated governance. The reputation loss of the government higher than the cost of efforts can helps to reduce the impact of random disturbance;The expansion of the strategy set into a continuous type will affect the evolution of the game system towards the state of collaborative governance. The role of the platform's power space in promoting the collaborative governance is significantly inferior to the high and low levels;The expansion of the strategy set into a continuous type will affect the evolution of the game system towards the state of collaborative governance. The contribution of this paper is to introduce random disturbance and continuous strategy set into the evolutionary game model of platform economic governance, which makes up for the deficiency of model construction in the existing literature and provides theoretical reference for subsequent related research.

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    Data Quality, Quantity and Data Asset Pricing: Based on the Perspective of Consumer Heterogeneity
    Juanjuan Lin, Zhigang Huang, Yong Tang
    2025, 33 (5):  88-98.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0444
    Abstract ( 158 )   HTML ( 10 )   PDF (1082KB) ( 155 )   Save

    The data resource is expected to be "combustion promoter" driving the construction of "Digital China". How to transform data resources into data assets, realize the market-oriented allocation of data assets and improve the efficiency of resource allocation is not only the need to realize the high-quality development of China's economy and the modernization of national governance capacity, but also an important embodiment of the spirit of a series of central meetings, which has important theoretical and practical significance.The concept of comprehensive score of data assets covering data quality, quantity and their interaction factors is put forward in this paper for the first time, then a utility function based on comprehensive score is constructed, multi-dimensional influencing factors are considered, and a multi-dimensional factor pricing model suitable for consumers with heterogeneous efficiency sensitivity is constructed from the perspective of profit maximization. Taking the air quality data set assets of 31 cities in China as an example, KNN machine learning classification algorithm is used to fit the utility function, and the constructed model is used for simulation pricing analysis. The results show that: (1) utility and utility sensitivity are the key factors of data production and data asset pricing, the division of consumer utility sensitivity heterogeneity has a key impact on the optimal pricing. (2) Considering the retention level and saturation level of consumer utility sensitivity, the comprehensive score covering the quality and quantity level of data assets has an important impact on the production and pricing decision of data platform. (3) For a given comprehensive score level of data assets, the profits of the data platform tend to rise first and then fall with the change of price. The optimal price can be solved through the profit maximization model to realize the pricing of data assets.The pricing model constructed in this paper is universal for the pricing of data assets of all transactions on the data platform. It is not only an innovative attempt and important supplement to the data asset pricing theory and method, but also has important practical significance for stimulating the economic driving force of data elements.

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    AI-Driven Decision Sciences: Application, Perception and Bias
    Wei Gu, Yajin Liu, Feng Susan Lu, Xiangbin Yan
    2025, 33 (5):  99-112.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1896
    Abstract ( 148 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (832KB) ( 473 )   Save

    Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have significantly transformed traditional management decision-making systems, enabling automated data analysis and enhanced decision support. The widespread integration of AI across various enterprise operations, propelled by the digital economy, presents new opportunities for digital management while posing challenges for decision science research. A comprehensive literature review is conducted to explore AI applications across diverse business domains, focusing on perceptions of AI, and examining the critical issue of AI bias. The role of AI is investigated in operations management, marketing, accounting, finance, and healthcare specifically. Moreover, human perceptions of AI technologies and algorithms are analyzed, addressing concerns related to AI discrimination and suggesting potential solutions. While AI has demonstrated substantial value across multiple management contexts and has significantly improved management effectiveness through enhanced human-computer interaction, it also introduces increased heterogeneity in public perception of AI, which may yield unforeseen negative consequences. The issue of AI bias further complicates its widespread application. It provides valuable insights for enterprise leaders and policymakers aiming to make informed decisions and contributes to advancing the theoretical foundations and practical implications of AI-driven decision sciences in this research.

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    Study on CPI Prediction by LSTM Model Based on Double-Layer Attention Mechanism
    Manru Dong, Xiaobin Tang
    2025, 33 (5):  113-123.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0885
    Abstract ( 160 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (925KB) ( 210 )   Save

    Against the backdrop of an increasingly complex and volatile domestic and international economy, timely and accurate prediction of the consumer price index (CPI) plays an important role in boosting consumer confidence, promoting consumption upgrading and implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand. However, as the complexity of economic operations increases, new industries and new modes of business continue to emerge and resident consumption patterns change, traditional statistical survey data are not conducive to accurate economic expectations and a timely grasp of changes in consumer prices due to their time lag and low frequency. Especially under the impact of big data, the traditional predictive methods and timeliness can no longer well meet the needs of economic development and policy formulation, thus exacerbating the lag in the formulation of the relevant policies, which may lead to bias in the implementation of the corresponding policies. The development of big data technology and the rise of machine learning provide ideas for solving the problems of timeliness, accuracy and complexity of CPI prediction. The purpose of this paper is to construct a predictive model of CPI using big data technology and machine learning methods, with a view to realizing a timely and accurate prediction of CPI.Aiming at the problem of CPI prediction, the natural language processing technology based on TF-IDF algorithm and BERT model are adopted to construct the CPI predictive dataset. Secondly, Multi-Representational Attention and Soft-Attention are introduced into the LSTM neural network structure respectively, which enables the model to dynamically deploy the attention to the features and temporal sequences of dataset, and ATT-LSTM-ATT model is constructed and applied to the CPI prediction problem. Thirdly, several machine learning models (including ATT-LSTM, LSTM, SVR, RF, XGBoost, and LGBM) are introduced for comparison and cross-validation analysis, respectively. Finally, the effect of introducing Attention mechanism on the predictive ability of LSTM model is explored, the accuracy and robustness of ATT-LSTM-ATT model for CPI prediction is tested, and explore the heterogeneity of multiple machine learning models for CPI prediction of different prediction sets is explored.The results of this paper show that (1) The introduction of Multi-Representational Attention mechanism and Soft-Attention mechanism effectively improves the prediction effect of LSTM model on CPI. The two-layer Attention mechanism can strengthen the LSTM model's attention allocation to real estate policies, double eleven and holidays, etc., and highlight the impact of important features and important points in time on the trend of CPI changes, which can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model for CPI. Therefore, the ATT-LSTM-ATT model has better features and time series attention allocation, time series memory and prediction functions, and has effectiveness and stability in the prediction of CPI. (2) Through the research of different machine learning models on the prediction of CPI in different periods, it is found that the ATT-LSTM-ATT model has strong stability, and different machine learning model shows heterogeneity in different prediction sets. The heterogeneity is characterized by the fact that RF, XGBoost and LGBM models are more suitable for short-term prediction of CPI, SVR is more suitable for long-term and medium-term prediction of CPI, and LSTM model is more suitable for long-term and short-term prediction, and the heterogeneity characteristics of the predictions of each model are related to its internal structure. (3) Text mining data can grasp the dynamics of resident consumption in advance, and by analyzing the number of lags in the predictor dataset, the CPI value predicted by the text mining constructed dataset combined with the ATT-LSTM-ATT model can is about 3 weeks earlier than the official release time.

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    Data-Driven Models and Applications on Poverty Identification, Classification, and Prediction
    Suoyi Tan, Mengning Wang, Ye Tian, Jianguo Liu, Xin Lu
    2025, 33 (5):  124-137.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1770
    Abstract ( 132 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (1152KB) ( 331 )   Save

    Poverty refers to individuals or groups who are unable to obtain the resources and services necessary to meet basic living requirements, and it has long been a major global social issue. Traditional methods of poverty identification and measurement mainly rely on statistical data and sample surveys, which are limited by high costs, low efficiency, poor timeliness, and data scarcity, making it difficult to reflect dynamic socioeconomic conditions in a timely manner. With the advent of the digital era, data resources in fields such as population, geography, and economy are increasingly abundant, providing new opportunities for the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and data-driven models to tackle poverty in more precise and timely ways. It systematically reviews the key poverty concepts and measurements in this paper, focusing on the application of data-driven models and algorithms in poverty mapping, poverty trend prediction, and socioeconomic status assessment. It is organized as follows: Section 2 provides a succinct overview of the diverse definitions of poverty, and summarizes both unidimensional and multidimensional measurements of poverty through the lenses of education, health, and the living environment, among other perspectives. Section 3 to 7 enumerates the data-driven models found in the existing literature, categorizing them systematically based on the various types of methodologies, including regression analysis, machine learning, neural networks, complex network theory, and natural language processing (NLP). To conclude, the potential implications and opportunities for utilizing big data and AI technologies in achieving poverty reduction goals are discussed in section 8, and the forefront is pointed out as well as critical challenges of the field, such as more precise spatial analysis, real-time monitoring capabilities, and trend prediction. At the same time, key challenges are highlighted such as data representativeness, data quality, and model interpretability, while also pointing out possible future directions.

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    Digital Transformation and Firm Value: Theory and Empirical Evidence
    Weiqi Liu, Jianying Li, Jie Zhou, Dongliang Yuan
    2025, 33 (5):  138-149.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2726
    Abstract ( 105 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (650KB) ( 534 )   Save

    With the rapid development, accelerated innovation, and widespread application of new-generation information technologies such as big data, blockchain, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence, the development of digital economics is becoming a key force in the reorganization of global factor resources, the reshaping of economic structure and the change of competitive pattern. As the micro-level constituent of the macroeconomy, enterprises play an important role in digital economic development and transformation. Digital transformation has become the kernel strategic choice for enterprises to enhance quality and improve competitiveness. Especially in the new development pattern, digital transformation is very important for enterprises to adapt to the development of the digital economy, cultivate new quality productivity, and achieve high-quality development. Against this background, does the implementation of digital transformation by enterprises have an impact on their value? What is the mechanism of the impact? These questions have become hot issues for academic research. Therefore, based on the production and consumption characteristics of the two-sector economy, an economic model of enterprise digital transformation is constructed and theoretically the value performance of enterprises is deriued that have carried out digital transformation compared with those that have not. Consequently, the impact of digital transformation on the enterprise’s value and the underlying mechanisms is empirically examined. Listed companies in the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the period 2007-2019 are used as the research sample. Moreover, a large-sample textual analysis method is used to aggregate the characteristic words of digital transformation in corporate annual reports, thereby measuring the degree of digital transformation of enterprises. The model predicts that the value of digital transformation enterprises is higher than that of non-digital transformation enterprises. The empirical analysis finds that digital transformation significantly contributes to firm economic and social value. The results are robust to confronting several sources of endogeneity and robustness tests. Furthermore, it is found that the internal governance environment and analysts’ attention are potential influence mechanisms. It is also found that the positive effect between digital transformation and firm value is more pronounced for enterprises with the property of state-owned and high-tech. The findings reveal the economic implication and impact mechanism black box of digital technology embedding and provide some policy suggestions from the micro-level for the construction of digital power and high-quality economic development.

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    Study on the Information Transmission Effect of the Text Tone of M&As Announcement Reports
    Libin Zhao, Jialan Huang, Yan Zhao, Xiangfei Fu
    2025, 33 (5):  150-162.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0424
    Abstract ( 302 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (725KB) ( 210 )   Save

    Existing literature research has found that financial texts have information. Text message is an expression of management's view of the company's future performance, and it plays a complementary role in the disclosure of corporate financial information. It can alleviate the information asymmetry between the company and investors and improve the company's information disclosure quality. However, M&As announcement report have not received much attention. There are significant differences between M&As announcement reports and regular text information such as annual reports, earnings communication conferences, news media reports and social networks, the disclosure content not only contains the historical information such as the basic situation of the transaction parties and the transaction target. M&As decisions are based more on future development considerations, and the disclosure of such information is highly subjective, the way of expression of text language also has no regulatory constraints, and Managers are free to determine the manner of disclosure. All these factors greatly increase the difference of the text tone of M&As announcement reports. So, does the text tone of M&As announcement reports also have information content? In the existing literature, there are two viewpoints about the text information effect: information increment view and information manipulation view. The information increment view holds that the disclosure of textual information has incremental value and provides more additional information, which can reduce the information asymmetry between the company and external investors and help investors better evaluate the company's value. According to the information manipulation view, the managers will manipulate text information due to the selfish motives. Then, the text tone of M&As announcement reports is provided to investors with a reliable incremental information or a distorted manipulated information?The natural language text analysis and computer quantitative technology are used to mine the text of M&As announcement report of list companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2008 to 2019. Firstly, whether the text tone of M&As announcement report has information content is studied, and the event study method is used to analyze the relationship between the text tone of M&As announcement report and the short-term cumulative excess return rate. Then the mechanism test is used to investigate the role of investor concern in the transmission of text tone information of M&A announcement report to the short-term cumulative excess return rate. Finally, after examining the information content of the text tone of M&As announcement report, a progressive study is further conducted on the text tone of M&As announcement report, and the reliability of the text tone of information of M&As announcement report is investigated. From the perspective of the impairment of the goodwill of M&As, the relationship between the text tone information of the M&As announcement reports and the impairment of goodwill is analyzed. The empirical results show that:(1)The net positive text tone of the M&As announcement report has a significant positive correlation with the short-term cumulative excess return rate.(2)The mechanism test shows that the net positive text tone of M&As announcement report mainly affected the short-term cumulative excess return rate by attracting the attention of investors. Specifically, the net positive text tone of M&As announcement report will cause the increase of the abnormal search volume of investors, and the lower the text complexity, the more significant the positive relationship between the net positive text tone of M&As announcement report and the market short-term excess cumulative return.(3)Companies with more net positive text tone also have more goodwill impairment, and this relationship is more significant in M&As with performance commitments and share-based payments. This suggests that the positive text tone of M&As announcement reports is not reliable. Management will conduct positive tone management under the “stock price manipulation motive”, and mislead investors, but eventually this distorted information will be “revealed” by goodwill impairment.The findings of this paper broaden the research scope of financial text analysis, deepen the research on the role of textual information disclosure in market investment decisions, and the conclusion of this study is of great practical significance to investors and regulatory authorities.

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    The Effects of Consumer Perceived Product Uncertainty on Offline Experience and Post-Purchase Attitudes in Online Shopping Contexts
    Jianqi Liu, Guijun Zhuang, Yifan Wang
    2025, 33 (5):  163-172.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0700
    Abstract ( 76 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (879KB) ( 93 )   Save

    The consumers’offline experience behavior in the context of online shopping is examined. Specifically, it considers instances where consumers view a brand’s products online intending to purchase them (referred to as the intended product). Consumers may then enter a physical shop to directly experience the product in question. At this juncture, consumers have a substantial comprehension of the intended product and are cognizant of the desired experience. In this scenario, the consumer’s experience is more circumscribed and targeted, yet also more concentrated and less influenced by the ambiance of the retail establishment, geographical location, and service quality, among other factors.Previously, Lu Tingyu and Zhuang Guijun, recognizing the specificity of such behavior, undertook a detailed investigation through a grounded research approach and developed a comprehensive behavioral model. They discovered that consumers’perceived product uncertainty (including quality uncertainty, fit uncertainty, and preference uncertainty) is a principal and direct antecedent of offline experience. Their study was comprehensive and original, offering interesting and enlightening insights. Their discussion was of particular importance for our understanding of offline experience behavior in the specific context of “online purchase, offline experience”. However, due to the constraints of qualitative research methods, they were unable to quantify the significant impact of consumers’perceived product uncertainty. This topic is developed in this paper. The model and hypotheses are constructed based on the consumer purchase decision model. A scale of consumers’perceived product uncertainty is first developed, and then mathematical and statistical methods are applied to test the impact of perceived product uncertainty on consumers’offline experience and post-purchase behavior in the context of online shopping.Using PLS-SEM to analyze 411 valid questionnaires, it is found that: (1) consumers’perceived product uncertainty has a positive effect on offline experience involvement. In other words, when consumers feel that the information they obtain online is insufficient to remove product-related uncertainty, they will spend more time and effort when conducting an offline experience. (2) Offline experience involvement increases the usefulness of offline experience. The greater the effort consumers invest in their offline experience, the more information they obtain, which in turn facilitates more effective purchase decisions. (3) Offline experience usefulness raises consumer satisfaction with the purchase method and lowers post-purchase regret about the product. In other words, the more consumers perceive that the information obtained from the offline experience is beneficial to their purchase decision, the more satisfied they are with the purchase method, and the less likely they are to experience regret about the product.The theoretical contributions are as follows First, within the specific context of “online purchase, offline experience”, a product preference uncertainty scale is developed, and a three-dimensional reflective-constitutive second-order scale of product uncertainty is constructed. Secondly, it is established that there is a critical and direct influence of consumers’perceived product uncertainty on their offline experience. Third, the usefulness of the offline experience is identified as a significant factor influencing consumer behavior following a purchase, thereby extending the existing research about offline experiences.

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    A Dynamic Assessment Method for Complex Equipment Delivery Risk Considering the Dual Correlation ofFactors - stages
    Siqi Zhang, Jianjun Zhu
    2025, 33 (5):  173-183.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1330
    Abstract ( 76 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (973KB) ( 243 )   Save

    The delivery link of the integrated supply chain of complex equipment is the key to the transformation of national defense combat power. Due to the complex and changeable delivery environment and the complex product technology, risks in the delivery process are frequent, and how to effectively identify and control risks has become a research difficulty in academia and industry. To solve this problem, the dynamic model of complex equipment delivery risk is studied under which delivery risk factors and stages (factors-stages) are related. According to the characteristics of complex equipment delivery, a criteria system affecting the delivery risk is constructed; the preference of decision-makers is expressed by using probabilistic linguistic terms, and a prospect theoretical analysis model that considers dynamic reference points and loss aversion coefficients are proposed; considering the dual correlation of factors-stages, risk measurement models based on Choquet integral are constructed. Finally, the feasibility of the method is verified based on the survey data of an aviation manufacturing enterprise. The results show that: (1) Due to poor technical stability, the delivery risk level of new complex equipment is higher than other types of risks; (2) Knowing customer needs in the early stage can help enterprises to resolve some risks in advance, helping to shorten the delivery cycle and improve customer satisfaction; (3) There is an interactive relationship between delivery risk, and enterprises need to focus on related risks when conducting risk investigation. It can support the decision-making of complex equipment delivery risk management and control schemes, continuously enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises, and provide a specific theoretical basis and practical value for enterprise delivery risk management and control.

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    Research on Optimization of Collaborative Delivery Cycle Decision Considering Distribution Pricing
    Qihuang Mei, Jianbin Li, Yuting Zheng, Wen Xie
    2025, 33 (5):  184-194.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0632
    Abstract ( 81 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (1334KB) ( 67 )   Save

    With technological advancement and increasing health awareness among users, consumers' consumption habits in the medical and health field have gradually shifted from offline to online. In order to seek new profit growth points and cope with the increasingly fierce market environment, pharmaceutical e-commerce platforms have partnered with small offline medical institutions to provide customers with convenient services of "online ordering and offline pickup" and achieve logistics collaboration. By establishing a Stackelberg game model for the collaborative distribution between pharmaceutical e-commerce and small offline medical institutions, the latter first decides the profit-sharing ratio, and then the former decides the delivery price and delivery period, achieving the optimal income-sharing ratio, price, and delivery cycle for both offline medical institutions and pharmaceutical e-commerce platforms. Through the analysis of historical orders, the stochastic demand is characterized by an additive model. The results show that pharmaceutical e-commerce platforms are more sensitive to market parameters (such as potential market size and price elasticity) in their price decisions, while delivery period decisions are more sensitive to logistics parameters (such as order volume and unit transportation cost). It is found that when small medical institutions choose a dynamic profit-sharing strategy, although they can achieve their own profit maximization, it significantly reduces the overall profit of the supply chain. Therefore, pharmaceutical e-commerce platforms need to focus on improving their operational capabilities while paying attention to the market environment. Moreover, when cooperating with offline medical institutions, they need to reach a suitable profit-sharing ratio as early as possible, so as to achieve supply chain coordination on the basis of win-win.

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    Research on Multi-Stage Auction Strategy of Reserved Parking Considering pre Demand Disturbance
    Ge Gao, Yue Liu, Huijun Sun
    2025, 33 (5):  195-202.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2242
    Abstract ( 57 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (1090KB) ( 40 )   Save

    Parking reservation is one of the effective methods to improve the occupancy rate of parking spaces. However, some drivers may not park on time as scheduled, which leads to low utilization of parking spaces and wastes parking resources. In view of this, in order to solve the problem of low utilization of parking spaces caused by drivers who are late, a parking space reservation method is proposed based on multi-stage Vickrey Clarke Groves auction. In the multi-stage auction of parking space reservation, a “driver late report” mechanism is proposed for the first time.The platform conducts the next stage auction of parking spaces according to drivers' reports, so as to improve the utilization rate of parking spaces and reduce vehicle cruise time. The “driver late reporting” mechanism can effectively suppress the large fluctuation of parking lot utility and driver parking benefit caused by the previous demand disturbance. At the same time, it also reduces the cruising time of parked vehicles and improves the income of drivers and social benefits.

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    Bi-objective Optimization for a Home Health Care Crew Scheduling Problem with Time-varying Speed and Caregiver-patient Matching
    Yunqiang Yin, Hui Qin, Xiaochang Liu, Dujuan Wang
    2025, 33 (5):  203-213.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0345
    Abstract ( 83 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (950KB) ( 79 )   Save

    In recent years, due to the global aging population, home health care (HHC) has received increasing attention. Over the years, operations research tools have contributed significantly to reduce the operational cost and improve the service quality of HHC services. Moreover, the problem of urban traffic congestion caused by the increase of car ownership in China is becoming increasingly serious, so it is interesting to consider the time-varying speed in HHC issues.Based on this observation, it aims to investigate the Home Health Care crew scheduling problem that simultaneously considers the patient's preference for the level of qualification of caregivers and the time-varying speed. In such a problem, there is a set of caregivers at the HHC to perform the service for a set of patients. Each caregiver has a specific qualification level to represent their ability to perform the service for patients. Each patient requires a service time and a caregiver with qualification level to perform the service, and has a service time window Eti,eti,Lti defining the time range for caregivers to start services at patient i. When caregivers arrive at patient i’s location earlier than Eti, they need to wait until Eti, and the start service time later than Lti is not allowed. When the start service time falls within eti,Lti, there is no penalty cost for early service. However, when the start service time falls within Eti,eti, there will be a penalty cost proportional to the length of time ahead of eti. A caregiver with a low qualification level can serve the patients with high qualification levels, but this will incur a level preference penalty cost. Moreover, the travel speed of a caregiver when traversing an arc is related to the time entering the arc. The goal is to determine the assignment of caregivers and patients and the service routes of caregivers so as to minimize simultaneously the total operating cost and the total level preference penalty cost.To solve the problem, an improved non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm based on adaptive selection mechanism is devised. Based on the non-dominated Genetic Algorithm, the developed algorithm employs the non-dominant rank of chromosomes to calculate the corresponding adaptive selection probability, and increases the probability of high-quality chromosomes participating in the crossover to improve the quality of offspring chromosomes. To further improve the algorithm search efficiency, three improved strategies, including hybrid initial solution generation strategy, caregiver-patient matching crossover strategy, and variable neighborhood search strategy are introduced.Extensive numerical studies illustrate the following conclusions ① Time-varying speed has a significant impact on the solution. When the travel speed in peak hours is lower, more caregivers are required for serving the patients, and larger time window violation cost is incurred. ② If the target user group of the HHC center is a high-income group, the qualification level penalty preference decision can be selected to provide patients with their preferred qualification level of medical services, and the high operation cost can be alleviated by increasing the service cost. On the contrary, if the target user group of the HHC center is a low-income group, the operation cost preference decision can be adopted to give priority to the cost factor to provide patients with HHC services at a relatively low price. ③ All the improvement strategies are beneficial to the performance of the developed algorithm and complement each other, and using all the three strategies performs the best.

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    Effectiveness Dynamic Optimization Model for Weapon and Equipment System of Systems Based on A-GERT Network
    Zhigeng Fang, Jingru Zhang, Yuexin Xia, Ding Chen, Qiucheng Tao
    2025, 33 (5):  214-224.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1106
    Abstract ( 60 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (1152KB) ( 75 )   Save

    Effectiveness is an important indicator for measuring the combat effectiveness of weapon equipment system of systems (SoS). The research on achieving SoS optimization guided by effectiveness optimization has attracted more and more scholars’ attention. The aforementioned methods are devoted to research on SoS modeling and its performance optimization, but there are many insufficiencies. Therefore, how to accurately evaluate the effectiveness of the SoS and optimize it remain a challenging task.Motivated by the need of SoS modeling and the SoS combat performance optimization, the A-GERT network with self-learning mechanism by means of agent-based modeling and graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) based on the in-depth analysis of the complex SoS structure is constructed, which can achieve SoS effectiveness optimization. Secondly, the calculation method and proof of the combat chain/network success probability and combat effectiveness are given based on the moment generating function and mason formula. And on the basis of profound analysis of the contribution of SoS constituent units, the expected contribution evaluation model of SoS constituent systems based on Shapley value is proposed with the help of cooperative game. Then, the effectiveness optimization algorithm of A-GERT network based on the contribution of equipment system is proposed using Markov process theory. The case results and comparative analysis verify the feasibility and availability of the proposed method. The approach presented by this paper not only can be applied to SoS effectiveness optimization, but also can be used for optimization of other performance indicators. The conclusions present useful managerial implications for SoS under the background of operational confrontation.

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    Precision Intervention and Household Consumption during Public Health Emergencies: A Two-way Fixed Effects Model Analysis
    Yiying Li, Boqun Wang
    2025, 33 (5):  225-235.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1346
    Abstract ( 58 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1328KB) ( 97 )   Save

    China has entered a stage of “scientific prevention and control and targeted measures” in the fight against the novel coronavirus pneumonia. Studies have found that epidemic prevention and control measures do not only stop the spread of the epidemic, but also lead to a decline in the regional economy. Balancing the relationship between residents' health and economic development has become a key issue. In this paper, a fixed-effect model is constructed to analyze the impact of public health interventions on household consumption and its temporal and spatial differences. Data from 13 provinces in China, spanning from January 2020 to October 2022, are selected for analysis. The findings reveal that: (1) Stringent social distancing measures initially had a significant negative impact on household consumption, but they later facilitated consumption recovery. (2) Early social distancing measures had a stronger effect on household consumption compared to those implemented during regular epidemic control stages, with residents in economically developed areas being more adversely affected. (3) Additionally, the development of the internet, improvement in medical facilities, road infrastructure, and the rationalization of industrial structure helped mitigate the negative impacts of public health emergencies. The conclusion of this study can provide policy references for how management measures should be promoted according to local conditions in the face of public health emergencies.

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    Infection Risk Control of Pedestrians in Subway Stations under Epidemic of Respiratory Infectious Diseases
    Jia Liu, Xin Yuan, Weiqiao Ruan, Jinyu Bai
    2025, 33 (5):  236-246.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1511
    Abstract ( 73 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (1453KB) ( 66 )   Save

    In order to reduce the virus infection risk of pedestrians in the subway station, simulation modeling and optimization methods are used to study the management measures to reduce the infection rate of pedestrians in the station. A virus transmission model in subway stations is proposed by analyzing the spreading mechanism of respiratory infectious diseases virus and the probability of pedestrians being infected by the virus. A two-stage model of pedestrian movement in subway stations is proposed: massive video data is used to predict the target selection of pedestrians, the basic characteristics of pedestrian movement are extracted, and then the pedestrian route planning process is simulated. On this basis, a pedestrian motion simulation system in the subway station under the epidemic is established based on the NetLogo simulation platform. The SB-RS (Sequential Bifurcation-Response Surface) simulation optimization method is proposed that can be used for the study of pedestrian infection risk management in all double-deck Island subway stations under the epidemic. In the case analysis, suggestions on the optimal setting of pedestrian infection risk control in Wuhan Optics Valley Square station under the epidemic of respiratory infectious diseases are put forward, including the number of escalators, the running speed of escalators, the walking speed of pedestrians, and the number of entrances and exits.

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    Research on Production-capacity Reservation Model for Emergency Materials Based on Option Contracts
    Zhongquan Hu, Qian Liang, Ao Shen, Yang Liu
    2025, 33 (5):  247-258.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1528
    Abstract ( 78 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (1695KB) ( 37 )   Save

    To fully utilize the advantages of the production-capacity reservation and promote the establishment of long-term and stable cooperation between governments and enterprises, the problem of emergency material production-capacity reservation is studied under the cooperation of the supply chain based on option contracts. After deriving the decision-making of enterprise's material production-capacity reservation under different conditions, the conditions for achieving supply chain coordination is further provided and the impact of relevant factors on coordination mechanisms and the cost-benefit of both the government and the enterprise is analyzed. Based on these analyses, the superiority and practical value of the option contract compared to the quantity flexible contract established by government-enterprise cooperation is proved, and it summarizes the following conclusions and management insights:(1) Whether the enterprise establishes a production-capacity reservation cooperation relationship with the government depends not only on the government's offering of option contract prices but also on the probability of disaster events occurring during the reserve period. When the probability of disaster events occurring during the reserve period is low, the enterprise will only accept the government's contract if both the option premium and the exercise price are higher than their respective critical values. Conversely, when the probability of disaster events occurring during the reserve period is high, the enterprise will reserve a certain amount of production capacity for the government as long as the government's offered option exercise price is above the critical value. Thus, a reference basis for enterprises' decision-making on whether to participate in cooperation and how much material production capacity to reserve is provided. It also guides governments in formulating option contract prices.(2) On the basis of the enterprise participation in reservation, to fully leverage the effects of cooperation and improve the overall cooperation efficiency of the government and the enterprise, the issue of material production-capacity reservation under centralized decision-making is also explored and the conditions for achieving supply chain coordination under the option contract are provided. When the probability of disaster events occurring is low, the government will refuse to offer the contract to the enterprise due to high costs. Then, the supply chain can only achieve coordination when the probability is high. In addition, the coordination conditions under option contracts depend solely on relevant cost prices and are not influenced by the uncertainty of emergency material demand. This demonstrates not only the robustness of this coordination mechanism but also its strong application value. Based on this, it is found that under a coordination mechanism, the government's costs and the enterprise's benefits will decrease with the increase of option premiums, but the overall cooperation efficiency of both parties will not be affected. Therefore, both the government and the enterprise can negotiate the option premiums to coordinate their interests.(3) On the basis of supply chain coordination, the impact of the uncertainty of emergency material demand and spot market purchase prices on the cost-benefit of the government and the enterprise is further analyzed. It is found that as the probability of disaster events and spot market purchase prices increase, both the cost and benefit of the government and the enterprise will increase but will react differently to changes in material demand uncertainty. It is also found that, in comparison to the enterprise's benefits, the government's costs is more sensitive to the change of relevant factors. Therefore, the government should pay more attention to these changes.(4) Compared with quantity flexible contracts, it is found that option contracts not only can achieve supply chain coordination but also can increase the material production-capacity reservation and overall cooperation performance. Additionally, the range of option premiums is provided to achieve coordination and win-win situations for the government and the enterprise. Furthermore, it is found that as the uncertainty of material demand and spot market purchase prices increase, the advantages of option contracts will become more apparent, but the challenge of achieving coordination will also shift. In situations where the probability of disaster events is high, material demand uncertainty is low after the disaster, or spot market purchase price is high, the government and the enterprise should be cautious when determining option premiums to ensure that their cooperation can achieve coordination and win-win.

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    Simulation Study on Nuclear Emergency Evacuation Considering Residents' Dynamic Decision-making
    Wenhui Qi, Hong Chi, Mingliang Qi, Shouhao Zhang
    2025, 33 (5):  259-267.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2024
    Abstract ( 58 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (1029KB) ( 49 )   Save

    Emergency evacuation is an important component of nuclear accident emergency management. When making evacuation decisions, residents will consider not only the current information, but also the impact of future information. Therefore, it is necessary to study the evacuation process considering residents' dynamic independent decision-making.In this paper, based on the cell transmission model, a nuclear emergency evacuation simulation model considering residents' dynamic independent decision-making is constructed. In this model, the initial decision mechanism for evacuation is made according to residents' willingness to cooperate. Based on the information of plume diffusion, road network traffic and the use of decontamination stations that can be obtained by residents during evacuation, the changes of plume diffusion and road network traffic in the future can be predicted. Meanwhile, the impact of panic on residents' decision-making should also be considered. According to these, the evacuation route updating decision mechanism and decontamination station updating decision mechanism are constructed comprehensively.Taking Haiyang Nuclear Power Plant as an example, a field questionnaire survey is conducted to obtain the data of residents’ willingness to cooperate and evacuation preparation time distribution. Under the two evacuation scenarios, the impact of the proportion of resources reserved for residents evacuated by bus and residents' willingness to cooperate on evacuation effect (i.e., the maximum evacuation time, the maximum cumulative danger and the unbalanced use of decontamination stations) is simulated. The results can provide some basis for nuclear accident emergency management.

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    Distributionally Robust Optimization on Emergency Facility Location and Relief Supply Distribution Considering Household Reserves
    Jing Li, Ada Che
    2025, 33 (5):  268-279.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0926
    Abstract ( 74 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (2568KB) ( 124 )   Save

    Sudden natural disasters present substantial challenges that require swift and efficient response strategies. To adequately prepare for these events, it's essential to build emergency facilities and stockpile relief supplies in these facilities in advance. However, despite the significant role household reserves play in mitigating the impacts of unforeseen natural disasters, existing research on emergency facility location and relief supply distribution has not examined the impact of household reserves on decision-making. To address this research gap, an emergency facility location and relief supply distribution problem considering household reserves in the context of earthquake disasters is investigated. Before a disaster occurs, strategic decisions are made regarding the location and capacity of emergency shelters and relief warehouses, the amount of relief supplies pre-positioned, and the selection of areas for household reserves. Subsequently, tactical decisions for evacuating residents and distributing relief supplies are determined once a disaster occurs. The uncertainties encompassing disaster characteristics, relief supply, transportation and demand are considered. To make reliable decisions amid these uncertainties, a novel two-stage distributionally robust optimization model is introduced. This model aims to minimize the total expected costs of rescue in the worst case, including direct costs from pre-disaster preparation and post-disaster response, as well as penalty costs for unmet demands.To solve the proposed model effectively, a two-phase column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm is developed. The effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm is verified through a case study based on historical earthquakes in a region of Yunnan Province, China. By highlighting the crucial role of household reserves in the emergency facility location and relief supply distribution problem, a novel perspective on emergency management is offered. In addition, the introduction of a two-stage distributionally robust optimization model offers a comprehensive framework for improving disaster preparedness and response strategies, providing a valuable tool for policymakers and emergency management practitioners. Based on the results of the case study, some important managerial insights are drawn as follows: Firstly, emergency management practitioners should promote the notion of self-responsibility among residents for their safety while ensuring their access to relief supplies after a disaster. Secondly, guiding and training residents to properly use household reserves to increase the post-disaster availability of supplies plays a crucial role in reducing disaster impact on people and lowering government expenses. Lastly, for the problem of emergency facility location and relief supply distribution, decision-makers need to balance the use of available data with the inherent uncertainties of such unpredictable disasters.

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    Supply Chain Finance: How can Enterprises Achieve Sustainability?
    Hui Yu, Shuang Wang
    2025, 33 (5):  280-289.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1267
    Abstract ( 91 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (846KB) ( 90 )   Save

    Global environmental problems are becoming increasingly serious. More and more enterprises resort to the supply chain to seek the sustainable development strategy of "harmonious coexistence" between enterprises and nature. On the one hand, the downward pressure of the economy makes enterprises prefer supply chain finance with low financing costs and high availability to obtain financial support, while the huge size and urgent development needs of SMEs in China provide opportunities for the development of supply chain finance, and supply chain finance has achieved unprecedented development; On the other hand, enterprises must undertake more social and environmental responsibilities while pursuing high economic benefits. How to achieve “fish and bear's paw” has become a major challenge for enterprises to break through the new economic growth point. Supply chain finance is reshaping the future economic growth model and becoming a key strategic decision for enterprises to occupy the market highland.In this paper, the data of 1038 enterprises in 2019-2021 are selected as the sample, from Rankins ESG Ratings Database. The quasi-replication research method is used to explore the function mechanism and multiple paths of supply chain finance on the sustainable development of enterprises from the perspectives of financialization, technological innovation and government functions. The empirical analysis shows that supply chain finance significantly promotes the sustainable development of enterprises; Financialization, R&D investment and government holding have significant regulatory effects, while the regulatory effects of green technology innovation and government subsidies have not yet appeared. Enterprise heterogeneity has a significant impact on this mechanism. Configuration analysis shows that green technology innovation is the necessary and core condition for enterprises to achieve sustainable development. High-level sustainable development path of enterprises can be divided into three types: green technology innovation leading type, supply chain finance low demand type and supply chain finance high demand type. The research results provide micro-level empirical support for the sustainable development of supply chain finance enabling enterprises, and have certain reference value for the government to formulate and optimize relevant policies.

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    Research on Time-varying Path of Multi-temperature Co-distribution in Cold Chain Logistics Considering Carbon Emissions
    Feng Wang, Lingrong Zhang, Bo Lu
    2025, 33 (5):  290-301.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2318
    Abstract ( 82 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (1964KB) ( 113 )   Save

    In recent years, with the upgrading of people's consumption level and the change of consumption concepts, the demand for cold chain products in China has been increasing, the orders for products are becoming more and more fragmented, the logistics and transport routes are becoming more and more complicated, and the requirements for distribution efficiency are continuously rising. Multi-temperature co-distribution, as an efficient and flexible new distribution mode, can not only improve the flexibility of distribution path decision-making, but also reduce operating costs and improve service quality. Meanwhile, with the continuous progress of China's economy and society, green development has become a national strategy, and carbon emission reduction is an important initiative, the carbon emission problem of cold chain logistics must be paid attention to, and green and low-carbon has become an inevitable requirement for the development of cold chain enterprises. Furthermore, due to the acceleration of urbanisation, congestion has become the norm in the city. Daily traffic congestion in the city not only leads to delayed distribution of products and reduced service quality, but also increases the transportation cost and fuel consumption of vehicles. The problem of optimizing the time-varying path of cold chain logistics multi-temperature co-distribution is examined from a low-carbon perspective. The main elements are as follows:(1) The customers are clustered by considering both time and space factors simultaneously to provide a better initial solution for the subsequent search. A variety of neighborhood structures and selection methods are designed based on the characteristics of the problem. The validity of the model and the two-stage algorithm proposed in this paper is demonstrated through numerical experiments. (2) The introduction of a carbon trading mechanism is proposed to address the total cost of cold chain logistics and the carbon emissions generated during the distribution process. The impact of fixed carbon quotas and varying carbon trading prices for cold chain vehicles, and further the relationship between carbon quotas, carbon emissions, and total cost in the range where enterprises are sensitive to carbon trading prices is investigated. The findings of this study can provide valuable insights for both enterprises and the government. The study results indicate that the multi-temperature distribution mode is feasible for cold chain logistics and distribution. Compared to the traditional cold chain distribution mode, the multi-temperature distribution mode offers better path flexibility, higher vehicle load rates, and other advantages. Additionally, the realization of the 'dual-carbon' strategy requires joint promotion by the government and enterprises. Enterprises should consider carbon emission reduction in their decision-making process for production and transport. The government should strengthen supervision of carbon emissions and regulate carbon quotas and trading prices to ensure the synergistic development of economic and environmental benefits for enterprises.

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    Research on OEM Provenance Selection and Remanufacturing Authorization Decision in Cross-border Closed-loop Supply Chain Based on Tax Difference
    Wei Li, Yun Jiang, Yuqin Gan, Baoguang Xu
    2025, 33 (5):  302-312.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2750
    Abstract ( 65 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (1004KB) ( 57 )   Save

    Recently closed-loop supply chains have obvious cross-border characteristics. In 2020, the State Council of China issued policies that explicitly support the development of cross-border remanufacturing, so the potential of cross-border closed-loop supply chains is enormous. At the same time, when entering the host country's market, the host country's tax policy (including tariffs and corporate taxes) becomes an issue that cannot be ignored in the production decisions of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). An analysis of the research question stated below is presented: How do the host country's tax policies affect the provenance selection of OEMs? How do the host country's tax policy affect remanufacturing authorization when the provenance of new products in the first stage of OEMs is uncertain? OEMs and retailers both aim to maximize their own payoff, what are their decision preferences? Is there a conflict of preferences?The impact of the import tariffs and the differences in corporate taxes between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and local enterprises on the choice of remanufacturing authorization mode in the cross-border supply chain is considered, as well as the provenance selection of OEM for new product production (OEM's home country or host country). A cross-border closed-loop supply chain game model consisting of home country's OEM and host country's retailer is constructed, and compares the optimal decision and enterprise profit under the two remanufacturing authorization modes is compared. The results show that when OEM chooses to produce new products in different countries, the impact of tax costs on the preferences of supply chain members for remanufacturing models varies. If new products are produced in the host country, the difference in corporate taxes between FDI and local enterprises is the single influencing factor in the decision-making of OEM remanufacturing models. Regardless of whether OEM chooses to authorize remanufacturing or not, its preference for new product provenance is consistent with that of retailers, which will be affected by the import tariffs and the differences in corporate taxes between FDI and local enterprises simultaneously. In addition, the reduction of tax costs does not necessarily result in OEM reducing remanufacturing licensing fees. Therefore, OEM can select the product provenance and remanufacturing authorization decisions that are in line with its own interests according to the threshold of the host government's corporate tax policy and import tariff policy to maximize profits. Retailers can also achieve optimal profits because its preferences are consistent with OEM's. The host government can influence the decision of OEM by setting specific intervention levels of tax policies, so as to achieve better profits of domestic enterprises and encourage remanufacturing for environmental goals. The conclusion of this study has important reference significance for OEM and government decision-making under the background of intense international trade friction.

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    Studying on the Impact of Government Subsidies on Manufacturing/Remanufacturing Based on Different Allocation Modes of Carbon Allowance
    Xiqiang Xia, Peihan Li, Jiahui Jia, Rui Wu, Mengyuan Lu
    2025, 33 (5):  313-324.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2451
    Abstract ( 70 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (939KB) ( 80 )   Save

    According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 1.5% per year over the past 10 years, including a record high of 55.3 billion tons of “carbon dioxide equivalent” in 2018.To effectively achieve the goal of reducing total carbon emissions, the EU introduced a carbon cap-and-trade system.To achieve the carbon peak action, not only need efficient emission reduction policy guidance, but also need to actively undertake social responsibility to respond to the government's call to achieve corporate value.In order to reduce carbon emissions while ensuring their own interests, some construction machinery companies began to implement remanufacturing strategies to reduce operating costs.Therefore, under the goal of carbon emission reduction, remanufacturing is considered an effective way to reuse waste resources in manufacturing industry and low-carbon transformation of production methods, as well as an important element to promote the orderly construction of the national carbon emission trading market.Consequently, in the context of the national promotion of carbon peaking, in the carbon trading policy to restrict the production activities of original manufacturers, whether the dual policy of government subsidies to remanufacturers to promote the development of remanufacturing industry can still promote the development of the overall closed-loop supply chain, and how the government should reasonably arrange the subsidy policy and different carbon quota allocation methods to facilitate the development of remanufacturing industry while increasing social benefits is an issue worth exploring.Based on the diversification of current carbon allowance allocation modes and the government's implementation of circular economy, in order to analyze the influence, which is under different allocation modes of carbon allowance, of government subsidies on an original manufacturer (OEM) and a remanufacturer in the closed-loop supply chain, it comparatively constructs a game model of an original manufacturer and a remanufacturer based on the grandfathering mechanism and the benchmarking mechanism when the government conducts static single cycle subsidies to remanufacturers. The results are as follow: (1) Under the benchmarking mechanism, government subsidies can be conducive to further expanding market capacity and promoting the development of low-carbon market, but it is difficult for original manufacturers to play their initiative; When the government subsidy is greater than a certain threshold under the grandfathering mechanism, the government behavior can have a positive effect on all parties in the supply chain; (2) When the government subsidy budget is fixed, the grandfathering mechanism is more conducive to the profit of the original manufacturer, and the benchmarking mechanism is more conducive to improving the profit of the remanufacturer; (3) When the government aims to increase social and economic benefits, the combination of grandfathering law and subsidies is better. However, when the government aims to improve social welfare or social benefits, the benchmarking method is better; (4) Government subsidies are conducive to promoting the development of the remanufacturing industry. Based on different subsidy purposes and different development stages of the industry, selecting appropriate carbon quota methods is conducive to better playing the role of government subsidies.

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    Research on Capacity Sharing Strategies of Competing Firms Considering Conversion Efficiency
    Junjin Wang, Songjun Xu, Jiaguo Liu
    2025, 33 (5):  325-333.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2323
    Abstract ( 42 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (879KB) ( 21 )   Save

    Market competition can lead to a mismatch between supply and demand. Capacity sharing is a common practice to combine excessive capacity with excessive demand. In order to investigate the transformation efficiency and sunk costs on capacity sharing between competing firms, a capacity-sharing non-cooperative game model is constructed consisting of two symmetrically competing firms and the game model of no capacity sharing with capacity sharing is compared, and the effects of consumer segmentation, firm capacity and capacity transformation efficiency on firms’ capacity sharing strategies and profitability are analyzed. The results show that promising an excessive capacity sharing price does not necessarily improve firms’ profitability, capacity sharing can soften firms’ price competition, and the optimal capacity sharing price and equilibrium expected profit are non-monotonically influenced by price-sensitive buyers. The impact of firms’ capacity and substitutability on them depends on capacity conversion efficiency. There is a sunk cost threshold effect on the profitability of capacity sharing. More price-sensitive buyers, larger capacity capacity and lower capacity conversion efficiency inhibit this effect and reduce the likelihood of firms reaching capacity sharing.

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    Founder Identity, Equity Financing and Innovation Performance: Textual Analysis Based on 466 Prospectuses of STAR Market Listed Companies
    Zhiguang Li, Yaokuang Li, Lihua Fu, Yalin Wang
    2025, 33 (5):  334-343.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1898
    Abstract ( 74 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (686KB) ( 90 )   Save

    The innovation activities of enterprises constitute a complex systemic endeavor, subject to a multitude of factors including resource endowment, organizational management, and top management team composition. Despite scholars delving into antecedents of firm innovation performance from various perspectives, there is a scarcity of literature examining the influence of founder identities on innovation performance. In the process of corporate governance, founder-chairpersons often concurrently hold the position of Chief Executive Officer (CEO), embodying attributes such as a strong sense of corporate identity, a pursuit of long-term success, the retention of practical control over company operations, and the establishment of enduring psychological and emotional connections with the company. Such attributes wield a significant influence over the firm's investment behaviors. To date, numerous studies pertaining to founders have emanated from entrepreneurship-centric or strategy-centric perspectives. For instance, entrepreneurship research concerning founders has predominantly concentrated on comprehending their influence during the early stages of a company and their effects on company growth. Conversely, strategy-centered research primarily focuses on the impact of founders on strategic choices and performance, with minimal systematic exploration of the heterogeneity of founder identities. Hence, it is imperative to explore the impact mechanisms of founder identity types on the innovation performance of science and technology innovation enterprise from the perspective of founder identities.Based on the prospectus data of 466 STB listed companies from 2016-2020, textual analysis is firstly used to reconstruct founder identity and classify founder identity into academic founder, technical founder, and commercial founder. Then, stepwise regression models are constructed to empirically analyze the impact of founder identity heterogeneity on the innovation performance of science and technology innovation enterprises, and the mediating role of equity financing. The results suggest that academic founders show the best innovation performance by obtaining relatively more equity financing. Further, it is found that overseas experience and duality positively moderated the relationship between academic founder and equity financing, and prior VC/PE supports weakened the identity advantage of academic founders in terms of equity financing. Heterogeneity analysis showes that academic founder firms of unlisted companies on the National Equities Exchange and Quotations presented better innovation performance; The positive relationship between academic founder and firm innovation performance is more prominent in regions with better government-business relationships. These findings of the study provide a new reference and basis for improving corporate equity financing and promoting innovation development of science and innovation enterprises in China.

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    Research on the Mechanism of Perceived Value on the Development of Personal Carbon Account Green Credit
    Lili Ding, Zhongchao Zhao, Kaixuan Zhang
    2025, 33 (5):  344-355.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0900
    Abstract ( 52 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1873KB) ( 22 )   Save

    Personal carbon account is a powerful way to reduce carbon emission at the consumer end and achieve the goal of “dual carbon”. Establishing carbon accounts with individuals as the main body and encouraging green credit in personal carbon account can not only play the role of finance in optimizing resource allocation, but also help to change consumption patterns and improve energy use efficiency. In order to further explore the driving role of personal carbon account green loans on low-carbon behavior, and fully interpret the micro mechanism of irrational factors on the development of personal carbon account, this paper constructs the tripartite evolutionary game model of consumers, government and banks in the green credit of personal carbon account, and analyzes the evolutionary equilibrium of the model based on the bounded rationality of decision-makers and combined with the prospect theory. Taking the “point carbon into the gold loan” of Qujiang Rural Commercial Bank as an example, the paper simulates the balanced strategy choice of consumers, government, and banks under the different initial participation intention, government subsidy mode, and risk preferences. The results show that: when the initial willingness to participate is very low, personal carbon account is difficult to develop, and the increase of initial willingness helps to achieve Pareto optimization; compared with direct subsidies, discount interest subsidies are more conducive to promoting consumers' low-carbon consumption; the increase of loss avoidance sensitivity makes consumers more likely to choose low-carbon consumption strategy and banks more likely to choose green credit strategy; the increase of loss aversion sensitivity and titer sensitivity makes consumers more inclined to low-carbon consumption and banks more inclined to green credit, while the increase of cost sensitivity is not conducive to the development of personal carbon account. The conclusion can provide reference for promoting the development of personal carbon account from the aspects of profit and loss perception regulation and risk preference management of decision makers.

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    A Research on Long-term Mechanism of Environmental Governance in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the Perspective of Multiple Co-governance
    Qiang Li, Youming Tang, Zhoutao Xie
    2025, 33 (5):  356-368.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1778
    Abstract ( 71 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (818KB) ( 119 )   Save

    The Yangtze River Economic Belt is characterized by a complex interweaving of economic and environmental problems, and its environmental governance mechanism is a hot topic in academia, but few studies have focused on the long-term effectiveness of environmental governance. Therefore, a theoretical framework of long-term mechanism of environmental governance is built based on the idea of “pluralistic co-rule”, starting from the single paths of motivation mechanism based on the Environmental Legislation(EL), compensation mechanism based on the Emissions Trading(ET), and supervision mechanism based on the Environmental Information Disclosure(EID), and a theoretical framework of long-term mechanism of environmental governance is constructed based on pluralistic co-rule through the combination of two-by-two policies. Based on the panel data of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2021, the effects of single and combined mechanisms of environmental governance on environmental governance are empirically tested, using the Difference-in-difference method. The results show that: (1) ELET and EID significantly reduce the level of environmental pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the environmental governance effect of ET is more effective; (2) the governance effect of the two-by-two policy combinations of ELET and EID is better than that of a single policy, i.e., an organic combination of the environmental governance motivation mechanism, compensation mechanism and supervision mechanism can achieve a greater degree of environmental improvement, and the motivation and supervision mechanism combinations of EL and EID have the highest governance effectiveness of all the combinations. The conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. (3) All three environmental governance mechanisms achieve long-term environmental pollution control, and the governance effect of the combination of motivation and supervision mechanisms increases with the time lapse of the policy. New ideas are provided for promoting long-term ecological governance in China.

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