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20 September 2015, Volume 23 Issue 9 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Liquidity, Liquidity Risk and Performance——A Empirical Study on Chinese Open-End Mutual Funds WANG Zong-run, TIAN Xu-ran, CHEN Xiao-hong 2015, 23 (9):  1-8.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.001 Abstract ( 2109 )   PDF (1244KB) ( 2778 )   Save The focus of this paper is to research the optimal strategies facing cash constraints based on supply chain financing with implicit equity stake. A supply chain financing system composed of a supplier, a manufacturer and a bank is developed. Considering the implicit equity stake among them and using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the net present value (NPV) analysis in conjunction with three-part game theory to quantify the value of implicit equity stake and determine the optimal strategies, it is found that suppliers considering implicit equity stake can finance at a lower cost. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model of Interest Rate Based on MCS Approach LIU Duan, XUE Jing-yun 2015, 23 (9):  9-18.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.002 Abstract ( 1840 )   PDF (935KB) ( 1433 )   Save Cash holdings support enterprises' rate war. Changing product markup is an important aspect in pricing decision and affects enterprises' competitive performance. This paper focuses on the roles of cash holdings on markup changes and the role of markup changes on product market competition using the manufacturing listed companies. Meanwhile, how much the effect differs between economic contractions and expansions is tested. Finally Causal-Steps is applied to further verify the path that cash holdings may affect markup changes first, and then markup changes act on product market competition. It is found that firms with rich cash holdings are more likely to lower their product markup and then achieve better performance. But the effect is not constant across the business cycle. Moreover, markup changes play an intermediary effect in the process of cash's affecting firm performance. That is, cash holdings can support enterprises' competitive performance by price competition. This paper enriches the existing literature and puts forward valuable theoretical and empirical reference to improve the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Hedging Strategy of Correlation Risk in Incomplete Market HUANG Ling-yun, Zheng Shu-fang, Wang Jue 2015, 23 (9):  19-25.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.003 Abstract ( 2065 )   PDF (902KB) ( 1851 )   Save The role of FDI policy of host country in MNC's foreign investment activities is assessed in this paper. Models are developed based on the principal-agent approach to the games, and are tested on simulation results using the Latin Hyper-cube Sampling Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is found that the degree of risk aversion, scale of MNC and regulation for MNC have played important roles in MNC's work effort. Furthermore, the more income distribution MNC gets, the harder work MNC will try. In addition, under the policy of combined stimulation with regulation, it is proved that MSC and host country can both achieve mutual benefits and win-win corporation mechanism when they considering fairness and reciprocal. The results not only disentangle the effects of FDI policy in decisions and utility by model, but also provide the new approach to achieve the win-win mechanism. Some important guidance for MNC from China and policy-making are affered in this study. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Improvement on the Estimate of Realized Variance of Stock Yield Based on Transaction Time Sampling WU Xin-yu 2015, 23 (9):  26-36.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.004 Abstract ( 2431 )   PDF (1704KB) ( 2623 )   Save The investor behavior has always been in focus in the literature on financial economics. Naturally, it involves the pricing kernel, which also known as the stochastic discount factor. In standard economic theory, the pricing kernel is a monotonically decreasing function of the market return, corresponds to a concave utility function and investor risk aversion. However, there has been a lot of discussion about the reliability of this theory. Many recent empirical studies based on index option data have provide evidence of non-monotonically decreasing pricing kernel. The non-monotonicity of empirical pricing kernel estimates has become known as the “pricing kernel puzzle” or “risk aversion puzzle”. Numerous attempts have been undertaken to explain the reason for the “pricing kernel puzzle” from different perspectives, including investor's heterogeneous beliefs, misspecification of the underlying state space, ambiguity aversion, rank-dependent expected utility, incomplete market, statistical artifact, investor's sentiment, etc. In this paper we consider a pricing kernel based on the rank-dependent expected utility model with a probability weighting function. The rank-dependent expected utility model was first introduced by Quiggin (1982), and further developed by Yaari (1987) and Allais (1988). We show that this model is consistent with several features of the empirical pricing kernel estimated from index options and that the data imply the shape of probability weights with the emphasis on tail events.Methods: In the last decades, there is a large literature on the estimation of the pricing kernel. A number of earlier papers estimate the pricing kernel using aggregate consumption data, problems with imprecise measurement of aggregate consumption can weaken the empirical results of these papers. Recently, many authors have used the historical underlying asset and option prices data to estimate the pricing kernel. This approach avoids the use of aggregate consumption data and can obtain more reliable results. Based on the option and underlying asset prices data, this paper derives the empirical pricing kernel by estimating the objective and risk-neutral densities based on the discrete-time EGARCH model and continuous-time GARCH diffusion model, respectively. Furthermore, the probability weighting functions are constructed based on the rank-dependent expected utility model and provides an explanation for the “pricing kernel puzzle”.Results: The empirical results based on the Hong Kong Hang Seng index (HSI) and index warrant prices data show that: (1) The estimated empirical pricing kernel is non-monotone and exhibits a hump, which known as the “pricing kernel puzzle”;(2) The estimated probability weights have the S shape, which overweights the probabilities in the middle and high of the distribution and underweights the tail events;(3) The “pricing kernel puzzle” can be explained by the rank-dependent expected utility model with standard utility and the S-shaped probability weighting function.Conclusions: The empirical pricing kernel from option and underlying asset prices are estimated and probability weighting functions are constructed based on the rank-dependent expected utility model, and provides an explanation for the “pricing kernel puzzle”. The results show that the estimated empirical pricing kernel is non-monotonic, i.e. “pricing kernel puzzle”. Under the standard CRRA utility function, the constructed probability weighting functions have S shape, indicating that investor underweights the tail events (the probabilities in the tails) and overweights the probabilities in the middle and high of the distribution. Thus, the nonmonotonic pricing kernel (“pricing kernel puzzle”) is explained by the rank-dependent expected utility with concave utility and the S-shaped probability weighting function. This type of weighting function represents investor's excessive optimism and overconfidence, which is also consistent with the findings of Barone-Adesi (2014) in the sense of sentiment theory. The probability weighting is an important and empirically relevant element for understanding asset prices, which can be applied to a wide range of problems in finance related to investment decision-making, option pricing, risk management and fund rating. Some evidences for the assumptions of investor behavior are provided in our findings. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Improved VaR Model by Embedding Strategic Factor LI Yun-hong, WEI Yu, ZHANG Bang-zheng 2015, 23 (9):  37-45.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.005 Abstract ( 1830 )   PDF (3381KB) ( 1719 )   Save Reviewing the history is aimed to predict the future. History contains the thread and the inherent law of the development of a thing. Can investors make investment decisions and predict the future trend through the analysis of stock market history? In this paper, taking Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Compositional Index, Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 index as the samples, the dynamic estimation method is used to analysis the time-varying characteristics of long memory in the stock market, and the value of historical information is explored;and using the modified R/S method and LW estimates, two more novelty correction LW estimation method are employed for comparison, and the research of stock market long memory characteristics is expected to promoted. The empirical results show that, although the specific values are not exactly the same from different methods, but the same conclusions about the stock market long memory can be obtained;the stock return series did not have significantly long memory in the whole sample interval, but with extreme events, such as the 1990's real estate crisis in the Japanese, the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the U.S. financial crisis in 2008 and so on, return series exhibit a significant correlation, which inflect the time-varying characteristics of stock market long memory, and the extreme risk can be avoided by analysis historical information. Without regarding to the differences of cultural, economic and social background, this paper researches the China, Asia and globally representative stock index, and discusses the long memory characteristics of return series. An empirical evidence is provided for comprehensive understanding of the effective market hypothesis theory, and a support for risk management use the market's history information is also provided. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Oil Price Shocks and China's Actual Economic Fluctuations——An RBC Model Analysis LI Su-fang, ZHU Hui-ming, LI Rong 2015, 23 (9):  46-54.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.006 Abstract ( 1829 )   PDF (1093KB) ( 1733 )   Save The nonlinear dynamic relationship between crude oil price and stock markets for the selected eight Asia-Pacific economies from 1997/07/01 to 2013/07/01 is investigated. In the traditional threshold regime switching models framework, the optimization is complicated in the procedure of parameter estimation and the identification of unknown nuisance parameters is more difficult. Therefore, a Bayesian threshold regime switching cointegration approach is implemented instead in this study. Based on Bayesian MCMC algorithm, It is found that there is threshold regime switching cointegrating relationship between crude oil and Korea stock market, and between crude oil and Malaysia stock market. The results suggest that there exist asymmetric adjustments in oil-Korea stock market nexus and oil-Malaysia stock market nexus. On the other hand, there are no asymmetric adjustments between oil and Japan, Australia, South Korea, India, Indonesia and Singapore stock markets. The regime switching cointegration analysis could provide a different view to the relationship between crude oil price and Asia-Pacific stock markets. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Theoretical Deduction on Existence, Effective and Its Fairness of Internal Capital Markets YANG Ji-sheng, YANG Jian-hui, WU Xiang-jun 2015, 23 (9):  55-64.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.007 Abstract ( 1856 )   PDF (1184KB) ( 1875 )   Save Identificating firms inventories' adjustment strategies exactly is the necessary condition of effectively managing inflation expectation. From the micro level, based on the Smooth transition panel error correction model with interactive effects, the specific characteristics of firms inventories adjustment in the different stages of inflation cycle are investigated in this paper. The empirical findings and the counterfactual comparative simulation experiments show that, the adjustment strategies of firms inventories are mainly affected by inflation expectation rather than actual inflation. Unlike the social experience, the adjustment of firms inventories owns the characteristic of counter-inflation cycle. To the most industries, the monetary policies are invalid in low inflation stage, owing to the income effect of inflation expectation surpasses the cost effect of firms inventories adjustment;under the background of high inflation period, the monetary policies have an effect on the adjustment of firms inventories, as a result of the weaker inflation expectation and the significant cost effect. The threshold of inflation mechanism is 3.4%, so setting 3.5% as the up-limit inflation adjustment accords with characteristics of firm market behaviors. The sensitivity of inventories strategies shows significant difference on monetary regulation and inflation expectation in different industries, the real estate, wholesale and retail, machinery and equipment industries are much more sensitive than the food service industry. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Merger Efficiency Evaluation of Two-Stage Production System Based on Non-Cooperative Game Theory SU Zhi, QIN Lei, FANG Tong 2015, 23 (9):  65-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.008 Abstract ( 1810 )   PDF (1281KB) ( 2024 )   Save Minimum variance portfolio models mentioned by traditional literature were all brought out by exerting different penalties, and these models always ignored interactions between high-dimensional assets. When variables highly correlated, Lasso could not get suitable variables. So we referred to Li Caiyan and Li Hongzhe's way that combined graph structure penalty with MVP model with L1 penalty. And the correlations between assets by graph structure are described in order to get assets more accurately. The purpose of the paper is to provide theoretical and decisive inferences. The MVP model with graph structure is showed below: Minimize ωT∑ω+λ1‖ω‖1+λ2ωTLω Subject to ωT1p=1 For concise computation, we made λ=λ1+λ2 and θ=λ1/λ1+λ2, so the problem could be transmitted to this one: Minimize ωT∑ω+λθ‖ω‖1+λ(1-θ)ωTLω Subject to ωT1p=1 When ∑、L、λ and θ are given, it is the model that we fully focused on. Some properties of solves are given under the structure of regulated methods. With combinations between an coordinate algorithm and improvement of Yen, an efficient algorithm is also brought about.A-shares data of Shanghai Stock Market is used to conduct empirical analysis. Time varied from Jan.4th to Mar.29th in 2013. The data contained 56 observations and 818 stocks. The empirical analysis showed that: (1) The model with graph structure is better than other models in returns. (2) The model with graph structure is feasible in returns. (3) The sharp ratio of Graph1-MVP is positive, and the sharp ratio of Graph3-MVP is the highest among all models with negative ratio. (4) The probability of short is comparable small and this result could be due to the equation constriction that sum of weights is 1. (5)L1-MVP and Graph1-MVP could get the least number of assets. In summary, It is concluded that MVP model with graph structure can be advantageous in choose of asset. In the future, we could do further on the penalty of MVP model, or different penalties in other models could be considered to get better portfolios. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Premium and Penalty Mechanism of the Reverse Supply Chain Considering Various Goals of Government SUN Lin 2015, 23 (9):  71-79.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.009 Abstract ( 1658 )   PDF (1503KB) ( 1479 )   Save Based on SMEs financing market in China, a mathematical model is constructed to reveal the disadvantaged individual disclosure information mechanism in the collective form under the condition of information asymmetry. It is found that not only there is information disclosure optimization, but also there exists the problem of insufficient scale effect when exchanging between strong individuals and weak individuals, therefore, in real life, they exchange difficultly. The research shows that, to certain extent, information asymmetry can make vulnerable individuals with a strong individual achieve win-win situation in the course of exchange. When disadvantaged individuals could not normally disclosure information, they can bind together and disclosure information in strong collective form. Thus it improves the condition of the information asymmetry in both sides, the collective disclosure of information also can make the disadvantaged individuals information internal in order to exchange easily with strong ones. Furthermore, it can create scale effect. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Loan-to-value Ratiosof Inventory Pledging Based on Supply Chain Credit Level TANG Qi-ming, REN Pei-zheng, SUN Wen-song 2015, 23 (9):  80-86.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.010 Abstract ( 1840 )   PDF (1175KB) ( 2381 )   Save The international commodity market price fluctuation has seriously negative impact on Chinese commodity import costs. Under this background, it has great academic value to study the spot price change and commodity futures returns in China. Based on the convenience yield model, the commodity term structure, commodity futures returns and futures returns decomposition are obtained. Then the relevant data is selected from China's commodity futures exchange as samples, and a measurement study on commodity futures returns and spot price change is proposed. The results show that, in sample period, there's no close relationship between commodity futures returns with spot price change;commodity risk premiums that are conditional on roll returns and expected spot price changes are time-varying;average roll returns reflect the expected deviation of the spot price change from the risk premium;the futures term structure, convenience yields and roll returns accurately anticipate subsequent spot price changes.The above-mentioned theories and empirical results provide some helpful references and operable selection methods for measure and management as well as commodity futures investment decision design in the pricing of commodity futures especially different commodity futures returns and spot price change in China. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Carbon Emission Reduction Cost-Sharing Model in Supply Chain Based on Improvingthe Demand for Low-Carbon Products YANG Jun, FENG Peng-xiang, SUN Hao, YANG Chao 2015, 23 (9):  87-96.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.011 Abstract ( 2291 )   PDF (1991KB) ( 3882 )   Save With the increasingly serious situation of environmental protection and energy conservation, electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming an ideal transportation source of many logistic service companies for their outstanding cleanliness and energy efficiency. The battery exchange station location and vehicle routing problem (ELRP) are investigated in this paper. To solve the problem, an integer programming model is established and a two-stage hybrid algorithm for the new problem is proposed. The algorithm first locates battery exchange stations using tabu search with two different tabu criteria. It then determines the routing plan by using a modified Clarke-Wright saving heuristic. The computational experiments firstly compare the two different aspiration criteria. Extensive comparison experiments with CPLEX have been conducted on random generated instances and shows that our algorithm is more efficient to obtain high-quality solutions. Finally, two sensitivity analyses on vehicle capacity and driving range are presented. The results show that the increase in vehicle capacity or the improvement in driving range is beneficial to cut down the total cost. Further more, the sensitivity analysis on the unit construction cost tells that increasing construction cost per station may also lead to less located stations and higher shipping cost number of located stations. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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R&D Project Dynamic Investment Decision-making Model Based on Real Option NI De-bing, LI Xuan, TANG Xiao-wo 2015, 23 (9):  97-105.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.012 Abstract ( 1801 )   PDF (1220KB) ( 1592 )   Save Based on Baron's strategic CSR view, this paper considers a two-echelon supply chain consisting of an upstream manufacturer and a downstream retailer, and models three different CSR allocations by examining whether the manufacturer or the retailer is required to conduct CSR activities. Further, three-stage non-cooperative operations models are built corresponding to three different CSR allocations in the supply chain (the retailer alone is responsible for CSR activities, the manufacture alone is responsible for CSR activities, both are responsible for CSR activities)so as to identify the mutual incentive mechanism between supply chain members. The comparisons among the equilibrium economic and social performances under those three different CSR allocations show that under the condition that consumers positively respond to supply chain CSR activites, supply chain members' CSR choices are strategically complementary, leading to mutual incentives on their CSR behaviors, and due to this mutual incentive, the CSR allocation where both the manufacturer and the retailer are responsible for their own CSR activities reuslts in higher economic and social performance in equilibrium. Furthermore, A Nash bargaining model is used to describe cooperative CSR decision making and wholesale price contract negotiation. The corresponding Nash bargaining solution shows that since this cooperative operations can overcome the problem of double marginalization in the ex post product-transaction stage and the lack of CSR motivation (relative to the CSR motivations in centralized case)in the ex ante CSR strategic interaction stage (due to the strategic complementarity)under non-cooperative operations, the cooperation can further enhance both supply chain members' individual and the supply chain's social and economic performances(compared to the highest performance outcome under non-cooperative operations where both members are responsible). The main results obtained in both a non-cooperative and a cooperative settings are numerically illustrated. These results, on the one hand, provide a theoretical response to the debate on which member in a supply chain should be responsible for CSR activities, and on the other hand, point out that the focus in managing CSR interactions in a supply chain shall not be on how allocate CSR among supply chain members, but on whether to adopt a cooperative way to operate the supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Hub-and-spoke Container Shipping Network Design in a Competitive Environment PAN Ruo-yu, CHU Wei, YANG Shan-lin 2015, 23 (9):  106-115.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.013 Abstract ( 1772 )   PDF (1080KB) ( 2303 )   Save The city bus line layout is influenced by many factors. The simple pursuit of the best single indicator line in the actual bus route optimization is often difficult to obtain satisfactory results. Due to shortcoming of traditional bus route optimization algorithm for solving optimization problems that exist in the line, the paper analyzes the ant colony optimization algorithm optimization features. Combined with the advantages of the local path Dijkstra algorithm optimization, Dijkstra hybrid ant colony optimization algorithm is proposed. Secondly, for the optimization of the resulting line, a hierarchical clustering method of principal component analysis and evaluation to optimize the performance evaluation is proposed. Finally, the case study of bus lines optimization in Hefei is proposed as an example to verify the proposed algorithm. The results show that the proposed algorithm could take into account traffic density and maximum travel the shortest path, and gives an effective alternative. The optimization results are consistent with the actual situation in Hefei. The achievement of this paper has practical and realistic significance to the large urban public transportation network optimization in China. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Intuitionistic Fuzzy Decision-making Methods Based on Case-based Reasoning Wang Liang, Feng Tao 2015, 23 (9):  116-123.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.014 Abstract ( 1732 )   PDF (1158KB) ( 1490 )   Save Fund managers use the reputation and information manipulation strategy to obtain excess profits,which has seriously hindered the healthy development of the securities market in China. Hence, it is an worthy region to study the game evolution mechanism in order to reduce the occurrence of fund manager's moral risk. In this paper, the mathematical model of reputation and information manipulation of fund managers strategy evolutionary game process is presented. It is found that, if the net income of non-star-fund-manager establishing reputation is greater than the average market returns, after a long-term evolutionary game, star-fund-manager who have limited rationality will choose the strategy to continue to maintain the reputation, non-star-fund-manager will have strategy to establish the reputation. When a star-fund-manager's earnings by information manipulation is less than the cost of information manipulation, whether the external investors supervise, limited rational powerful star-fund-manager will choose strategy to disclose information. When the profit of external investor's supervision is less than the cost of supervising, external investors will give up supervision strategy. When the benefit of external investors supervision is higher than the supervision cost, external investor's strategy selection relies on powerful star-fund-manager's strategy, the probability that powerful star fund manager selects information manipulating is higher, the more likely that external investors will select the supervision strategy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Spread Mechanism and Diffusion Effect of Network Public Opinion Crisis GU Jing, REN Pei-jia, XU Ze-shui 2015, 23 (9):  124-131.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.015 Abstract ( 1951 )   PDF (903KB) ( 1909 )   Save Based on the characteristic of venture capital guiding fund, a performance assessment system of venture capital guiding fund is introduced in this paper. This assessment system consists of three aspects: policy effect, economic effect and management effect. Moreover, the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IFAHP) is developed and incorporated into our assessment system. An analysis on one of Chengdu's venture capital guiding fund is conducted, and it is found that the indexes in our assessment system can well reflect the characteristic of venture capital guiding fund. Compared with traditional method of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), the IFAHP can significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of assessment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Research on Formation Mechanism of Customer Loyalty under the Shopping Online LI Xue-mei, DANG Yao-guo, JIN Lei 2015, 23 (9):  132-138.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.016 Abstract ( 1957 )   PDF (905KB) ( 1981 )   Save In order to measure the similarity in the change trends between sequences, the grey change rate relational analysis (C-GRA) model has been established. The properties of the C-GRA model such as are studied in this paper. To research the consistency of the change direction between sequences, a new method for space decomposition has been put forth based on the C-GRA model with sign functionssgn (y0(tk)·yi(tk)). According to the consistency of positive or negative changes, the space decomposition index was proposed as Pi=sgn2[sgn1y0(tk)·yi(tk)], and the space was decomposed. Then, a grey trend analysis on the characteristic and behavioral sequences was performed to identify the sequences that shared the same step with the characteristics sequence. It should be noted that the entire ranking of the behavior sequences are not the only data that can be obtained;rather, the rankings in separate spaces can also be obtained, so the key factors in the promotion subspace, the inhibition subspace, and the coordinate subspace are clear. In the last part of this paper, the factors that affect the production of coal in the city of Fuxin are studied using the grey trend analysis, as based on the C-GRA model. Date is from the government of Fuxin. This application is presented to illustrate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Game Analyses on the M&A Transaction Price Decision Based on the Binomial Tree Option Model MENG Qing-liang, HE Lin, ZHU Hui-ming, BIAN Ling-ling, ZHANG Ling 2015, 23 (9):  139-145.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.017 Abstract ( 1797 )   PDF (1015KB) ( 1541 )   Save According to the lack of study on the dynamic of quality elements classification results of Kano model, a dynamic prediction method based on GM(1,1) model is proposed in this paper, combining with grey system theory's advantage in coping with irregular data. A fuzzy Kano model is designed to realize its objective classification, due to the deficiency of traditional Kano model's subjective classification. GM(1,1) is used to study the dynamic of quality elements classification of Kano model, combining with its advantage in coping with less data, poor information, high prediction accuracy. Its feasibility and validity will be tested by an empirical research in an express industry. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Pricing with Consumers' Double-entry Mental Accounting and Reference Effects JIANG Yi-xian, ZHANG Qi-shan 2015, 23 (9):  146-152.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.018 Abstract ( 1974 )   PDF (969KB) ( 1867 )   Save The background value is one of the key factors influencing the accuracy of GM(1,1) model.The improved models by optimizating background value are effective at present.But a lot of the optimized formulas are complicated and part of them are also not suitable for the high growth series.According to the exponential properties and intergral characteristics of model, the structure principle of background value is analyzed, and a new construction method is proposed in this paper using the irregular trapezoid to replace the traditional one based on the core idea of Riemann integral,so as to achieve optimizing model.The test results showed that the optimized model possessed white exponential law coincidence property,it could be applied to low-rising exponential series,and also could be the same with high-rising one.Thus,the test verified the improved GM(1,1) model with simpler formula was higher in practicality and reliability. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Closed Loop Supply Chain with Product Remanufacturing by Double Third Party Reclaim under Government Subsidy, Loss-averse Measure and Cournot Portray FENG Tie-ying, GAO Xin 2015, 23 (9):  153-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.019 Abstract ( 1757 )   PDF (2708KB) ( 2567 )   Save With the intensified process of population aging (ageing population) and the comprehensive covering of the New Rural Social Endowment Insurance, rural elderly population and pension surge in demand increase, and rural pension payments imbalance and unsustainable risk rapidly increase. According to pension financing and payment, rural pension income, expenditure and balance actuarial models with entirety method are constructed, and the rural pension change and trend are predicted by selecting and adjusting key parameters based on the investigation data (effective questionnaire = 5031)of six experimental counties (city or district)in three provinces in east, middle and west China where the New Rural Social Endowment Insurance carried out, and its sustainability with simulation studies are analyzed, and some basic reform ideas are proposed to enhancing the sustainability of rural pension according to the forecasting results in this paper. The results show that the increase of policy parameters such as payment rate and subsidy rate, economic parameters such as farmers' income growth rate and fund investment rate and their linkage growth are conducive to enhance the sustainability of rural pension, while the increase or decrease in the pay time of the pension has uniform affected on the sustainability of rural pension, their combined growth has a positive effect on long-term sustainability of the rural pension. This research has the important theoretical significance and practical value to rich and develop the theory and method of rural pension actual modeling and simulation and to improve system and policy of rural social security. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Closed-loop Supply Chain with Contract-recycling System XIONG Guo-qiang, ZHANG Ting, WANG Hai-tao 2015, 23 (9):  162-170.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.020 Abstract ( 1711 )   PDF (1427KB) ( 1576 )   Save Considering the emotion impact on the behavior of players in Game Theory, the RDEU Game model of group conflict was built, involving the rank-dependent utility theory. Moreover, the existence of Nash Equilibrium under different emotional states was and disecused the behavioral mechanism of players' mixed strategy choice influenced by emotion was analyzed in this paper. The findings demonstrate that emotion has significant impact on Game Equilibrium of group conflict. When the player has a “pessimistic” emotion, he or she tends to choose the behavior of resisting. Similarly, the player tends to submit to the other player when he or she holds the emotion of optimist. It was also found that players could be influenced by a certain judgment made by the other player, who was driven by emotion when selecting strategies. For example, when vulnerable groups think that if the probability of the opponents' adopting a repressed strategy is below a certain cut-off point, the probability of their choosing resisting strategy will increase, with the optimism index of emotion generating higher levels, At last, the conclusions were analyzed numerically, taking an example of house dismantlement conflict. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Influence of Environmental Pollution, Economic Growth and Healthcare Services to Public Health Based on China's Provincial Panel Data ZHANG Li-hui, ZOU Xin, QI Jian-xun 2015, 23 (9):  171-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.09.021 Abstract ( 1682 )   PDF (1301KB) ( 1738 )   Save In repetitive project scheduling, usually it is needed to minimize the project duration when each activity is given some available productivities. First, two theorems about repetitive scheduling method are presented in this paper, where one is used to determine the calculation formula of the project duration, and another proposes the necessary conditions for any activity become the backward controlling activity. Second, an optimization model based on these two theorems is proposed to minimize both the project duration and the total interruption days. Last, the performance of the proposed algorithm is validated by comparing with other existing algorithms. References | Related Articles | Metrics