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20 March 2016, Volume 24 Issue 3 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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The Simulation of Carbon Emission Trading System in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region: An Analysis Based on System Dynamics ZHANG Jun-rong, WANG Zi-dan, TANG Ling, YU Le-an 2016, 24 (3):  1-8.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.001 Abstract ( 2349 )   PDF (2459KB) ( 3090 )   Save With the rapid economic development, environmental pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has become an increasingly challenging problem, and low-carbon economy development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has aroused a wide attention. As a market-driven mitigation tool, carbon emission trading (CET) can effectively address the climate change and reduce carbon emissions. Based on system dynamics, a CET simulation model considering four sub-systems, i.e., economy, energy, environment, and CET policy, together with their interactive relationships is constructed to capture the impact of CET policy on economy and environment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei system. To study the impact of CET, a baseline case without CET policy and some CET simulation cases with different total allocations, free emissions allocations and carbon prices are set. Empirical results indicate that (1) Generally, CET can effectively promote carbon reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, even leading to a somewhat negative impact on economy, and (2) less total carbon allowances, less free quotas and higher carbon trading price will consistently enhance the carbon reduction effect, and in the meantime aggravate the impact in economy. The results also provided the effectiveness of the proposed model for capturing the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei CET system, which can provide helpful supports for the management department in CET design and the related decision making. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Risk Hedging Efficiency in the Perspective of Expected Utility HUANG Jin-bo, LI Zhong-fei, ZHOU Hong-tao 2016, 24 (3):  9-17.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.002 Abstract ( 2405 )   PDF (1283KB) ( 2592 )   Save There are two distinct research frameworks for hedging issues all the time: risk-minimizing models and utility-maximizing models. Risk-minimizing models implicitly assume that people are fully risk averters who only are concerned about the risk and do not care about returns, while utility-maximizing models are constructed to maximize utility functions which include return-risk tradeoff and have to give a weighing parameter for the return and risk usually. There exist certain disadvantages in the two kinds of models above. The former models' shortage is that they doesn't consider the people's subjective risk attitudes (or implying complete risk aversion). The latter models' shortage is that there is not scientific standard to determine the weighing parameter and the utility function setting is very subjective. In addition, the traditional literatures only define risk reducing ratio as the risk hedging efficiency index, but different risk measure indices often induce inconsistent or even contradictory results. Therefore a hedging efficiency index which is independent of risk measure indices is needed. Method: To repair the shortcomings above and absorb the advantages of the two kind of models respectively, firstly hedging strategies based on risk-minimizing models are gotten, then the expected utility theory is applied to compare the hedging efficiency of hedging strategies, so that individual's risk attitude can be linked to hedging strategy choice. The difference with the traditional risk-minimizing model is that we the risk reducing ratio isn't used as hedging efficiency index, while compared with the traditional utility-maximizing model, our method doesn't need to accurately set the weighing parameter. Data:Two cases are designed to test the theorem above. The data of case 1 is generated by simulation method. In case 2, the historical data of CSI 300 stock index and its futures is applied. The data window ranges from May 2010 to September 2014, a total of 53 monthly historical data. The CSI 300 index futures officially are listed on April 16, 2010, because of the very bigger noise at the listed beginning and less than a month trading time in the first month, so the data in April 2010 is removed.Results: Using the risk neutral, quadratic and CARA utility functions, it's strictly proved that the minimum variance hedging strategy is too conservative, and minimum VaR hedging strategy is the most radical. The investors with bigger degree of risk aversion prefer minimum variance hedging strategy, while the investors with risk neutrality or smaller degree of risk aversion prefer minimum VaR strategy. The minimum CVaR hedging strategy is not conservative or radical but moderate.Future research: This paper aims to provide a research framework which studies hedging efficiency under expected utility theory, the research framework has good applicability, openness and can be easily applied to hedging efficiency problem of other derivatives or other risk measure indices. So a new research perspective for other scholar's related research is provided in this paper. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evolution Roadmap Decomposition Model for Resource Dependency During the Process of Economy Transformation MENG Ming, NIU Dong-xiao, XU Xiao-min 2016, 24 (3):  18-23.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.003 Abstract ( 1871 )   PDF (1180KB) ( 1850 )   Save Economic transformation is essential for many resource-based areas. To identify the driving force and resistance factors of the transformation and to evaluate the effects of sustainable development, an evolution roadmap decomposition model for resource dependency is proposed in this paper. Based on the consideration of the geographical components of an economy, the differential to the resource dependency is used to indicate the beginning of the decomposition model. After designing the mean algorithm to solve the problems existed in calculating the definite integral, the complete resource dependency decomposition equation is obtained. By using this model, the change of the resource dependency for an economy can be decomposed to the summation of the contribution of each component through each influence factor in each year. Furthermore, the change of the resource dependency for Shanxi province during 2006-2012 is decomposed by the proposed model and the following conclusions are drawn. 1) The decrease of resource dependency of Shanxi province depended mainly on the "natural" transformation and the changes of the relative development speed of different areas have hindered the transformation; as well as 2) The sustainable development rank from the fast to the slow of all the considered areas is Shuozhou, Yangquan, Jincheng, Xinzhou, Changzhi, Jinzhong, Datong, Taiyuan, Linfen, and Lvliang. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Imbalanced Data Classification on Micro-Credit Company Customer Credit Risk Assessment Using Improved SMOTE Support Vector Machine YI Bai-heng, ZHU Jian-jun, LI Jie 2016, 24 (3):  24-30.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.004 Abstract ( 2220 )   PDF (1198KB) ( 1852 )   Save A great number of machine learning methods have been successfully applied for customer credit risk assessment cases, and support vector machine (SVM) is considered as an "off-the-shelf" supervised learning algorithm to solve classification problem by many researchers. Unfortunately, SVM fails to provide excellent enough classification performance when the data set is imbalanced, i.e., the accuracy of the majority class is usually much higher than that of the minority class due to the shifting of the hyper-plane. In most cases, people pay more attention on the minority class such as fault diagnosis and credit default. Thus, a Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) is presented to deal with the imbalanced classification by generating new samples in the whole minority class. However, in the process of solving SVM by Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) algorithm, only those support vector samples x#em/em# with the corresponding α#em/em# > 0 can affect the position of the hyper-plane while the samples far from the hyper-plane have no influence on the final result. It is obvious that the classic SMOTE algorithm can generate more redundant samples which are far from the hyper-plane. In this article, an improved method for classic SMOTE algorithm is proposed that SMOTE is looped and only misclassified samples in the previous loop are selected to be processed in the next loop until the minority class outnumbers the majority class or all minority class samples are correctly classified. In the empirical study, a data set granted by a micro-credit company in Jiangsu Province is studied. The data set originates from a company that provides loans to local individuals and enterprises for the house condition improving, farm production expanding, business operating and so on. The customers' information are analyzed according to the characteristics of micro-loan industry, and a credit risk assessment index system is suggested from four aspects with sixteen attributes in this paper. G-mean and F-measure score are used to evaluate the classification performance of the minority class, which is the accuracy of detecting default customers in this case. The results show high prediction accuracy of default customers, indicating the effectiveness of our method on credit risk assessment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Scenario Analysis of Complete Energy Intensity of Manufacturing Industry in China Based on Input and Output and Non-linear Optimization LI Gen, LIU Jia-guo, ZHAO Jin-lou 2016, 24 (3):  31-40.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.005 Abstract ( 2052 )   PDF (1088KB) ( 1575 )   Save Presently, environmental pollution is still one of the most prominent problems in China, to lower complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry is an important approach to reduce consumption and pollution. Based on input and output and non-linear optimization theory, non-linear optimization model of complete energy intensity is constructcd on the basis of minimum target of complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry and decision variables of 18 industries' final demands. It introduces import and export coefficients for constraint condition specially, then forecasts and adjusts correlation coefficients of the model based on existing data from input-output table and so on. On the basis of it, three schemes and two scenarios are designed and particle swarm optimization is applied to resolve model. Results show that minimum value range of complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry is from 0.7823 to 0.9048 ton of coal equivalent/ten thousand yuan in 2015. Compared with 2010, the decline rate range is from 8.9% to 21.31%. Under scenario 2 of high scheme, it can realize the goal that complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry decreases by 20%. To achieve this goal, China is supposed to promote the development of manufacturing industry in low and medium energy consumption, reduce complete energy consumption of manufacturing industry in high energy consumption, heighten the consumption and import coefficients and lower the investment and export coefficients reasonably. This paper is beneficial to government departments to formulate scientific and systematic policy of energy conservation and emission reduction and conducive to deepening energy economic and management theory. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Incentives for Demand Forecast Sharing in Group-purchasing Supply Chains with Competing Manufacturers DAN Bin, ZHOU Mao-sen, ZHANG Xu-mei 2016, 24 (3):  41-51.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.006 Abstract ( 2181 )   PDF (1249KB) ( 1866 )   Save With much change of the market and the diversification of demand, variety and small batch production mode has increasingly become a main way of manufacturing. In this context, driven by the pressure to control operating costs and focus on core competencies, group purchasing has been drawing heightened attention from practitioners and researchers in the last decade. Although, in the big data age, information sharing is an important part and essential support of group purchasing, a major challenge is the reluctance of some firms to share information because of the fear of loss. To address this incentive problem, a group purchasing supply chain consisting of one group purchasing organization (GPO) and two competing manufacturers is studied. The manufacturers purchase a common component from the GPO and compete in quantity by selling partially substitutable products in a common market. Each manufacturer is endowed with some private and imperfect information about the uncertain demand intercept and is allowed to share partial information with the GPO. A three-stage game model is used to study the participants' equilibrium decisions. In the first stage, each manufacturer decides a level of information to share with the GPO before observing the demand, and subsequently, shares the observed demand information with the GPO according to the specified level. In the second stage, the GPO sets a unified wholesale price of the component for the manufacturers. In the third stage, upon learning the wholesale price, each manufacturer decides his order quantity.Our research mainly contains the following four parts. Firstly, by solving the model, the impacts of competition intensity and information accuracy on the equilibrium decisions are analyzed. Secondly, we explore the value of information sharing and reveal the feasible condition of information sharing. Thirdly, a two-part compensation contract is proposed as an incentive strategy for information sharing. Finally, the coordinating effect of information sharing is shown by comparing with the performance under centralized decision setting, companied with numerical examples. The results indicate that both manufacturers have no incentive to share their private information with the GPO in equilibrium. However, information sharing can coordinate the competition between the manufacturers. When the competitive intensity exceeds a certain threshold, the supply chain system can be benefited from information sharing. Only then the manufacturers can be incented to share complete information by a two-part compensation contract. Based on this incentive contract, the supply chain system can realize higher expected profit under decentralized decision setting than that under centralized decision setting when both the competition intensity and demand variation are large enough.In summary, in this paper, group purchasing is studied with an informational perspective and a new insight is provided into the coordinating effect of vertical information sharing on horizontal competition. The findings in this paper can provide academic and practical inspirations on group purchasing. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Competing and Coordination Strategies for Dual Channel under VMI Supply Chain with Cooperative Promotion WANG Dao-ping, ZHANG Bo-qing, LI Xiao-yan 2016, 24 (3):  52-60.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.007 Abstract ( 2003 )   PDF (1018KB) ( 2241 )   Save With the development of E-commerce, more and more manufactures have established a online distribution channel while keeping traditional retail channel, thus having dual channel to distribute products. Online distribution channel helps manufactures widen the market scope and decrease the operation cost. But it also hurts the retailers profit, thus being subject to retailers' resistances and lead to channel conflict. The appearance of VMI pattern inspires research into competing and coordination strategies for dual channel under VMI supply chain. However previous researches didn't focus on these supply chain. Based on a two-stage VMI supply chain including a manufacturer and multiple retailers, a model of Stackelberg game between a manufacturer and retailers is developed in this paper, considering cooperative promotion in which supply chain can be coordinated and online distribution channel established by manufacturer. The decision variables of manufacture include the quantity of retailers' order, the cycle of retailers' order and price of product which is sold via online channel. Retailers need to determine price of product sold via traditional retailer channel and promotion quantity. It is found that fraction of backlogging rate for retailers become bigger compared with a supply chain without online distribution channel. Furthermore, the increase of cooperative promotion ratio and the fade of free riding' effect leads to higher quantity of promotion; the increase of demand transformation between dual channel leads to higher profit of manufacturer and lower profit of retailers and the whole supply chain. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the theoretical results of the proposed model and conduct sensitivity analysis on parameters of the proposed model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Supply Chain Collaboration Sharing Contract and Decision-making Mechanism under the Limitation of Carbon Emission LI You-dong, XIE Xin-peng, YING Gang 2016, 24 (3):  61-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.008 Abstract ( 1914 )   PDF (938KB) ( 1595 )   Save In this paper an emission-dependent supply chain system consisting of one single upstream emission-dependent manufacturer and one single downstream retailer is considered. Because its profit increases caused by the increased demand of low carbon consumption, retailer may conduct different contracts in order to promote the emission-dependent supplier to expand reduction investment. Therefore, two kinds of contract, which is called reduction increment income sharing contract and reduction investment cost sharing contract will be designed. Through the establishment of the two agents' Stackelberg game model, the optimal abatement levels and sharing rates can be obtained under the two different contracts, and two agents' optimal profits can also be calculated. The results show that reduction investment cost sharing contract can make the emission reduction more thoroughly and the obtained emission level is higher; in the reduction investment cost sharing contract, the two agents' profit will be increased; but in the reduction increment income sharing contract, the two agents' profit increments may be determined according to relevant parameters. Finally, based on the reasonable data the conclusions are verified, and the price of carbon emission permit and other related parameters' sensitivity can be analyzed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Stability of Supply Chain Contract and Its Optimization Under the Perspective of Option Game LIU Qi-you, ZHANG Cheng-ke, LENG Bi-bing 2016, 24 (3):  71-79.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.009 Abstract ( 1888 )   PDF (992KB) ( 1951 )   Save A supply chain contract mode is a market-oriented vertical product integration process from its production to sales. In the market economy, the execution of contracts is to maxmize profits, based on the assumptions of risk-neutral and fully rational game players. However, in a much volatile market, adverse selection and moral risk will occur when one player get losses under the normal supply chain contract mode. Therefore, high default rates for supply chain contracts will be vital to refrain from their executions without effective risk-sharing and behavior-constraint mechanisms. In this paper, the stability of supply chain contract modes are studied and optimization strategies are offered. Firstly, static game model is explored to obtain scopes of price fluctuations for supply chain contract modes. Secondly, detailed analysis is given to the impact of decision parameters on the stability of contract. Finally, a risk externality channel is sought to concert profit conflicts between contract parties, with the help of risk hedge function in options market. This no doubt offers a new prospective to solve the problem os high default rates in supply chain contract modes. Results show that such governance mechanisms as higher credits of contract parties, higher economic punishment coefficients, or more powerful default implementation measures, can help improve performance rates to some extent. But they can hardly eradicate market risks and occurrence of defaults. To solve high default rates for supply chain contract modes, it is vital to seek risk externality channel to coordinate the conflict of interest, with the help of risk treatment and prevention mechanisms in financial markets. As a result, market risk for supply chains can effectively be resolved in the options markets. From perspective of option games, by paying certain premiums under supply chain contract modes, supplier can effectively avoid market risks and meanwhile obtain benefits of rising prices. Manufacturers can fulfil steady efficient operations with higher incomes and more reliable supply stability. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Manufacturer's Order Allocation Model under Demand Uncertainty XU Hui, HOU Jian-ming 2016, 24 (3):  80-88.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.010 Abstract ( 1895 )   PDF (1152KB) ( 1734 )   Save As an important part of the supply chain model at the micro level, manufacturer's order allocation has a great influence on improving the efficiency of the supply chain. In the meanwhile, demand uncertainty, such as the policy cycle shortening and consumption patterns changing, increases the difficulty of the manufacturer's order allocation. However, supply chain management disruption caused by demand uncertainty has not been generally studied in the current literature. In order to maximize their profits or total supply chain profits under certain allocation rule, how supply chain participants should make decisions, which is discussed especially in this paper. Some positive explorations are made in order allocation models, which demand uncertainty is considered and incomplete information is introduced into the supply chain participants. Two kinds of the multi-suppliers and one-manufacturer models are analyzed within the method of proportional distribution under demand uncertainty. A supply chain model is emphasized on the study of decentralized decision and centralized decision based on complete information, which concludes that the latter can maximize the interest of supply chain because of the avoidance of marginal effect caused by one participant to another when making decisions. And then, another model is established upon incomplete information, which pays emphasis on the decision-making mechanism of manufacture based on its estimate of suppliers' private information with discounting factor and existing information. In addition, the risk tolerance of suppliers depends mainly on their production capacities and variable costs, and the intention of supplier getting order is proportional to the risk tolerance, inversely to the unit punishment. Finally, the aforementioned two models are validated by an example of demand obeying normal distribution, given that the demand of most goods is normal distribution in real life. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Optimal Replenishment Policy for the Retailer Under the Time Varying Demand and Supply Involving the Trade Credit Financing QIN Juan-juan 2016, 24 (3):  89-98.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.011 Abstract ( 1908 )   PDF (926KB) ( 1821 )   Save The suppliers often provide the trade credit for the payment of the amount owed. Usually, there is no interest charged for the retailer if the outstanding amount is paid in the allowable delay. If the payment is unpaid in full by the end of the permissible delay period, interest is charged on the outstanding amount. The inventory replenishment policies under trade credit financing have been studied intensively. But most of the existing inventory models under trade credit financing are assumed that a constant demand and the infinite or a constant replenishment rate. However, in practice, the demand rate is the ramp type function of time for some cases, such as the new products and the holiday related products. On the other hand, the production rate is related to the market demand. Therefore, the optimal order strategy of the retailer was discussed based on the trade credit financing, considering the time varying supply and demand. First, according to the relationship of the trade credit period and the retailer's replenishment cycle, the retailer's inventory models are constructed from two kinds of situations; Second, based on the inventory model, the existence of the optimal solutions is proved and give related theorems and the algorithms are given to solve the retailer's optimal inventory strategy; Finally, the numerical example and sensitivity analysis are carried out to demonstrate the related conclusions. The results show that: when the supplier gives the retailer's short trade credit period, which is less than the stable point of the demand, with the increase of stable point time, the retailer's optimal order cycle, the optimal order quantity and the annual cost decreases; when the supplier gives the retailer's trade credit period long, greater than the stable point of the demand, with the increase of stable point time, the retailer's optimal order cycle, the optimal order quantity and the annual cost also increases; with the dependence of suppliers' production on the demand stronger, the retailer's optimal order cycle, the optimal order quantity and the annual cost also increases. The paper extends the EOQ models and enables the managers to make the replenishment policies more effectively. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Shared-Saving Contracts for Leased Product Service System Based on Remanufacturing LIU Yu-xi, XIE Jia-ping 2016, 24 (3):  99-108.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.012 Abstract ( 1924 )   PDF (1751KB) ( 1818 )   Save When a remanufacturing enterprise leases the second-hand product and provides relative service to the user, the efforts of quality service for the enterprise and the efforts of elaborate operations for the user will undoubtedly affect the service quantity and costs as well as the quality and lifetime of the returned products, thus the remanufacturing costs and environment benefits. In this paper, the degree of both efforts influencing the performance of the leased product service system is studied based on remanufacturing, introducing a transfer payment from enterprise to user as a moderator, discussing the relationship between equilibrium effort levels and revenue function of the channel based on shared-saving contracts. It's found that when the marginal value of taking-back used product over the remanufacturing enterprise's and user's efforts is respectively greater than the marginal cost over the efforts and the transfer payment of per service savings has limited incentive effect, the system can achieve coordination and the total channel profit is greater than the fixed service price contract. Furthermore, a detailed numerical simulation finds that service demand and channel profit have the same trends with the transfer payments and additional service will not decrease the channel profit. The transfer payment of per service savings is in inverse ratio to the efforts of remanufacturing enterprise, in direct ratio to the efforts of product user. In different level of cost the enterprises have the willingness to give corresponding efforts, but when they have no cost advantages the willingness of remanufacturing enterprise will be higher and so is the environmental value. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Decision Model of Closed-Loop Supply Chain Considering Customers' Strategic Behavior and Product Quality CHEN Zhang-yue, WANG Yong, LIU Hua-ming 2016, 24 (3):  109-116.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.013 Abstract ( 2318 )   PDF (1331KB) ( 1852 )   Save Strategic customers have different valuation and willingness to pay not only for new products and re-manufactured goods which they have different quality, but also for products at different times. So companies should consider the strategic behavior of customers during the decision-making. In this paper, a closed-loop supply chain model are established which consist of a original equipment manufacturer, a independent remanufacturer and a group of strategic consumers. Dynamic game theory is used to analyze the impact of customers' strategic behavior and product quality on prices, profits, consumer surplus when the independent remanufacturer engages in recycling and remanufacturing. Then the two situations of re-manufacturing and no re-manufacturing are compared. Studies have shown that: as the level of customers' strategicity increases, the profits of original equipment manufacturer decrease, the profits of independent remanufacturer and consumer surplus increase. As the quality level of remanufactured product increase, the profits of original equipment manufacturer decrease, the profits of independent remanufacturer increase firstly and then decrease, consumer surplus increase. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Design and Analysis of Compensation Contract Model: Based on the Duality of Subsidiary Behavior LUO Biao, CHEN Shuai 2016, 24 (3):  117-124.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.014 Abstract ( 1950 )   PDF (2133KB) ( 1413 )   Save For the changes of subsidiary behaviors caused by role changes, subsidiary behaviors are firstly divided into exploratory behavior and exploitative behavior. In order to explore the influence of relevant decision variables on dualistic behaviors of subsidiary, the principal-agent theory is used to design a compensation contract model. The results show that: the optimal output sharing coefficient and the exploitative effort level will decrease with the raise of headquarters support level and the reduction of exploitative profitability, and they shows the tendency of "positive U shape" with the raise of subsidiary input and expected rate of exploratory return. If the subsidiary input or the expected rate of exploratory return is very low, the exploratory effort level shows the tendency of "inverted U shape" with the raise of headquarters support level. Otherwise, it shows the tendency of increase. Besides, the exploratory effort level will improve with the raise of exploitative profitability, expected rate of exploratory return and subsidiary input. Finally, this paper gives a visual display of the conclusions by a numerical example. Some theoretical references are provided for headquarters to control subsidiary dualistic behaviors effectively by the optimal incentive mechanism and resource support, and a new direction is provided for the study of subsidiary dualistic behaviors by deductive method. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Resource Allocation Model and Strategy Research of Large-scale Construction Project: System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation ZHONG Yong, CHEN Zhi-gao, ZHOU Zhong 2016, 24 (3):  125-132.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.015 Abstract ( 1953 )   PDF (2697KB) ( 2050 )   Save The efficient allocation of different types of resources in large-scale construction projects is a key issue that the project management theory and practice facing nowadays. Especially both the work operability, which including the process sequences and time interval, and the feedback impact of these resources are considered. Combining the earned value method and the system dynamics theory, this paper establishes a system dynamics model of multiple resource allocation of large-scale construction projects. The modeling is based on the causal analysis between the resource availability and the work operability. Major investment construction projects statistical data in Shanghai are used to set the model parameters. The simulation results indicate that there is significant difference on the allocation importance and systematically affect of different resources in construction projects. Both the project operation model and multiple resource matching should be considered when resource allocation strategies are developed. Mismatch of resources always result in unsteady of the resource allocation system or strategy failure. This research will provide theoretical reference and practice support to the further research on multiple resource allocation of project management. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Quality Differentiation Productfalse Information Research in the Duopoly Market Under the Conditions of Asymmetric Information ZHOU Xiong-Wei, LIU Peng-chao, CHEN Xiao-hong 2016, 24 (3):  133-140.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.016 Abstract ( 2054 )   PDF (1393KB) ( 2296 )   Save With the improvement of consumption level, the demand of differential product is growing. In order to improve enterprises' profits, they provide differentiated products of their quality to meet consumer's demands. Abounding differentiated products would be bound to induce product quality information asymmetry problem between enterprises and consumers. This will make enterprises use false information to improve corporate profits. Therefore, this paper constructs a pricing model of differentiated products of their quality in duopoly market based on Bertrand game model, and then analyzes the two enterprises' profits under different information strategy. The results show that the Nash equilibrium for the both enterprises is using false information in duopoly market. On the basis of the results a reasonable solution is provided to avoid the false information from the contract theory. Research finds that enterprises will not get a higher profit using false information under the restriction of punishment. Nevertheless, whether the revenue of the consumers is increased or not, it depends on the degree of penalty. Finally the validity of the model is confirmed through analysis of examples. This paper combines the quality differentiation with asymmetric information, deepen the differentiated product pricing research, and broaden the research scope of information asymmetry. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Asymmetric Auction of Divisible and Common-value Goods LU Yun-zhao, LIU Shu-lin 2016, 24 (3):  141-148.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.017 Abstract ( 1843 )   PDF (853KB) ( 1753 )   Save In this paper problem of optimal auction design of selling a divisible common-value object under an assumption that the seller faces two asymmetrically informed risk-averse bidders and one uninformed risk-neutral bidder is analyzed. The optimal mechanism design model is established for maximizing seller's expected revenue under all bidders' rational participation constraints and informed bidders' incentive compatibility constraints. The necessary and sufficient condition for the informed bidders' incentive compatibility constraints to be satisfied is given used and to simplify the seller's expected revenue maximization problem. The seller's revenue maximization problem is solved by ignoring its randomness and find that the seller allocates some goods to the informed bidder if and only if his reported value is higher than a particular threshold; the higher the reported value by the informed bidders is, the more goods will be allocated to him. Our research results can provide some suggestions for mechanism design for stock or bond issuance because the shares and bonds can be seen divisible and common-valued goods. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Non-Oriented Measure for Hybrid-DEA model with negative data MA Lu, GAO Li-hao 2016, 24 (3):  149-158.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.018 Abstract ( 1908 )   PDF (874KB) ( 1645 )   Save The existing research appears to negative DEA model, mainly for some simple semi-oriented and radial model. As to complex models, mostly the negative variable look-ahead processing is positive, then substituted into model, but this idea loss the original data structure, resulting in the accuracy and reliability of the model has been questioned, particularly Hybrid DEA model, including radial and non-radial, non-oriented factors, and there is no case for the negative research. Therefore, from a semi-oriented CCR model, it is based on mathematically derived to give a series of non-oriented, non-radial mathematical model and such negative processing rules provided by Emrouznejad apply to these models, thus forming the new ones handling the negative non-oriented situations radial model (NORM-VRS DEA), non-oriented and non-radial model (NOM-VRS DEA), further, conducted in-depth study of its mathematical model, there are some conclusions lemma and final settlement of Hybrid DEA model problems with the negative situations. Subsequently, the development of model specification for Chinese securities company's operating efficiency empirical analysis also verify the actual effectiveness of the model and whether deduced lemma and conclusions are correct or not. Finally, It's found that something of the original Hybrid DEA theory contrary to the department, and give a simple analysis. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Safety Production Management Mechanism In Enterprise Based on Stackelberg Game Model ZHANG Yan-nan, SUN Shao-rong 2016, 24 (3):  159-168.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.019 Abstract ( 1987 )   PDF (2116KB) ( 1888 )   Save Chemical industry is the important basic industry of national economy, however production safety management is in grim situation because of the particularity of its production. Owing to the disadvantage of safety production management mechanism in traditional chemical enterprises, the chemical enterprise safety production management mechanism research model is built, which is based on Stackelberg game model, to study the dynamic game analysis between government and chemical enterprises. In the paper, safety production management mechanism determined by government, production and security costs decided by chemical enterprise are analyzed. Moreover, according to a research on optimal reaction function of both government and chemical enterprise, a new model is constructed to study safety production management mechanism, based on economic benefit and security benefit of two players, with a series of parameters, which are composed of inspect probability. Then research results are as followed. Safety production management cost decided by chemical enterprise increases with the increase of variable cost per unit of production, inspect probability, average loss and fine. Fine determined by government decreases with the increase of fine, average loss and inspect probability. The minimum ratio of safe cost and production cost in chemical enterprise is positively correlated with the maximum investment funds, yet negatively correlated with the safety accident damage limit. It is found that simulation results are consistent with study, according to the numerical simulation of game model. The conclusion of this paper can be regarded as a reference to improve the rationality and effectiveness of enterprise safety production management mechanism. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Industrial Water Use System Efficiency Evaluation: A Two-stage DEA Model Considering Pollutants Disposability WANG You-sen, XU Hao, BIAN Yi-wen 2016, 24 (3):  169-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.020 Abstract ( 1973 )   PDF (1171KB) ( 1520 )   Save Water use performance and wastewater decontamination performance improvement is an effective way to alleviate water shortage. Industrial production system in China can be divided into production water use sub-system and wastewater decontamination sub-system. By considering the linkages between the two sub-systems and the disposability of pollutants in different sub-systems, a new two-stage network DEA model is proposed to evaluate the performance of china's industrial water use systems. The proposed model is applied to evaluate the performance of 30 regional industrial water use systems of China. The application results show that the overall efficiency of regional water use systems is relatively low in China and the inefficiency is largely driven by wastewater decontamination performance. There exist significant regional disparities in water use efficiencies of regions and areas. In particular, evident relationships between water use efficiency and water resource endowment, and a region may achieve a high efficiency score with relatively lower resource endowment, and vice versa. The proposed model can simultaneously evaluate the efficiencies of the whole industrial water use system and its two sub-systems, and it can identify the key factors that affect the performance of industrial water use systems. The proposed model can also be applied to evaluate regional energy efficiencies. All these show the great practical value of the proposed model. References | Related Articles | Metrics