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20 January 2017, Volume 25 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Risk Hedging Strategies and Its Utility under Distributional Uncertainty HUANG Jin-bo, LI Zhong-fei 2017, 25 (1):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.001 Abstract ( 1890 )   PDF (1550KB) ( 1825 )   Save Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are two main popular risk measurement tools presently. However, the present study on risk hedging problem with VaR (CVaR) is mostly carried out under specific distribution assumptions, which is prone to resulting in model risk and limiting its scope of application in practice. In addition, the traditional literature only defines risk reducing ratio as the risk hedging efficiency index, but different risk measure indices often induce inconsistent or even contradictory results. Therefore we need to seek a hedging efficiency index which is independent of risk measure indices. Method:To overcome the shortcomings above and improve existing results, the nonparametric kernel estimation method is introduced to estimate VaR and CVaR without a distribution assumption, and then the risk hedging model is constructed based on the VaR and CVaR kernel estimators, which can avoid the ex-ante model risk and parametric estimation error. In addition, expected utility theory is further applied to compare the hedging efficiency of risk-minimizing hedging strategies so as to avoid the inconsistent or even contradictory comparison results that are often induced by different risk decline ratios in traditional literatures.Data:The historical data of CSI 300 stock index and its futures is collected to test the theorem above. The data window ranges from April 16, 2010 to February 11, 2015, a total of 1172 daily data.Results:The empirical results based on CSI 300 index futures and spot market data show that four kinds of utility functions used by financial economics confirm consistently that minimum CVaR hedging strategy is more efficient than the minimum variance and the minimum VaR hedging strategies.Future research:The purpose of this paper is to provide a research framework which studies hedging problem under distribution uncertainty using kernel estimation method and expected utility theory. The research framework can be easily applied to hedging efficiency problem of other derivatives or other risk measure indices. So this paper provides a new research perspective for other scholar's related research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Coordination Between Macro-prudential Policy and Monetary Policy: Based on a DSGE Model by Bayesian Estimation CHENG Fang-nan, MENG Wei-dong 2017, 25 (1):  11-20.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.002 Abstract ( 1438 )   PDF (1940KB) ( 1409 )   Save By implanting housing price fluctuation into the DSGE model, the coordination problems between macro-prudential policy and monetary policy are studied in this paper. Three basic conclusions are drawn based on China's economic data by the numerical simulation analysis. First, from the perspective of coordination mechanism, the adjustment of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy should be based on maintaining financial stability and price stability, respectively. Reasonable coordination of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy, not only can avoid the plight of multi-objective and policy burden faced by a single policy, but also can maximize the effect of every policy. Second, from the perspective of setting policy rules in course of coordination, all of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy prefer simple normal Taylor rule rather than other complex rules with multi-objective. Third, from the perspective of coordination implementation, the implementation of every policy relates to the choice of direction and intensity in course of coordination, the coordination should avoid the "policy conflict" or "policy overlay", for these problems not only weaken the effect of coordination, but also augment the cost of policy execution. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on TheRisk Spillover Effect of China's Financial Market Based on AFactor-MSV-CoVaR Model CHEN Jiu-sheng, ZHOU Xiao-hua 2017, 25 (1):  21-26.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.003 Abstract ( 1599 )   PDF (1746KB) ( 1040 )   Save Under the background of economic globalization, with the process of the world economic integration, the free flow of information and capital becomes more clear, and the financial market risk transfer from one market to another market. Therefore, study of the risk spillover effect of financial markets has become the focus of financial supervision departments and scholars. In paper, the risk spillover effect between stock market and ETF market in china is analyzed based on CoVaR method combined with Afactor-MSV model. This combined model can measure the risk spillover effect between two different markets without copula functions, and it has higher fitting degree in reality than other models. In the first step, joint distribution model of stock market and ETF market is established by using the Afactor-MSV model, and MCMC method based on Gibbs sampling is put forward to estimate parameters of the combined model. Then, the risk spillover intensity between two markets is measured by using CoVaR function. Based on the daily prices of Chinese stock market index and ETF market index over January 4, 2010-April 30, 2015, our results demonstrate that there is two-way spillover effect between stock market and ETF market in china, the degree of risk spillover effect from stock market to ETF market is stronger than that of from ETF market to stock market. Meanwhile, it is also found that there is long-lasting effect of volatility shock on stock market and ETF Market. The empirical results can provide the reference for investors making investment decisions, and it is also valuable for regulation of financial markets. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Index Future on Stock Market Volatility Based on the GARCH-M Model CAO Dong, ZHANG Jia 2017, 25 (1):  27-34.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.004 Abstract ( 1540 )   PDF (1310KB) ( 1657 )   Save Since the financial crisis from 2007, the Chinese stock market has experienced large volatilities. CSI300 future has received a great deal of attention in recent years for its market stable function, even though it's made to be as a hedge against the risk, price discovery, and market capital allocation tool. After analyzing shortages of existing researches, methods and their applications, the integration of risk measurement process is introduced into the GARCH-M model to measure the volatility of stock market and study the effect of stock index futures on stock market fluctuations. By using the daily data of CSI 300 from August 1st, 2007 to April 23rd, 2015, a highly fitting GARCH-M model is built. The empirical study shows the impact of CSI 300 index future on the stock market volatility after the large external shock. First, there is a positive feedback in the stock market, with different levels of volatility before and after the introduction of stock future and exhibits significant "volatility clustering". Second, the CSI 300 index future has reduced the volatility index of the average 4.45×10-6 units, played a function as a controller, and eased the stock market volatility to some extent. However, its impact is limited and not fully realized. Finally, the market volatility in China is mainly affected by the old information far more than the new information, while its impact on the conditional variance is durable and has an more important role for the future impact of stock index movements. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Loan-to-Value Ratios of Stock Pledged Repos REN Yu-fei, YANG Cheng-rong 2017, 25 (1):  35-44.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.005 Abstract ( 1529 )   PDF (1561KB) ( 1365 )   Save Stock pledged repos are important innovative financial products in China, and its loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are crucial for risk management of financial institutes.In this paper, dynamic relationships among key parameters of stock pledged repos, such as loan-to-value ratios, predetermined termination lines, maturity date, repos interest rate and fees are established, by using option pricing theory. Then theoretical LTV ratios of sample stocks with different maturities are given by these dynamic relationships, in which samples are chosen from constituent stocks of Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 and SZSE SME 300 Price indexes in China. Furthermore, under different target levels of risk management and different maturities, these theoretical LTV ratios are compared to practical ratios published by ZhongHang Security and the LTV ratio discounted by closing line, and empirically investigated risk coverage levels of these theoretical and practical LTV ratios based on Kupie?s idea. Empirical results show that most theoretical LTV ratios with different positions are higher than the practical one, while theoretical LTV ratios with cash margin have the same risk coverage level with the practical one, and the risk coverage level of theoretical LTV ratios with the supplementary stocks term is lower than practical ones, but higher than LTV ratios discounted by closing line. Therefore, a kind of combined mode with theoretical and practical LTV ratios are proposed in this paper. The empirical result shows that the risk coverage level of the combined LTV ratio is higher than theoretical LTV ratios. Besides, they are quite superior to practical LTV ratios in aspect of cutting financing cost. Therefore, it is argued that, with financial institutes' management target lines, LTV ratios of stock pledged repos should be set to combined modes with theoretical and practical LTV ratios in order to control risk and reduce financing costs. Our conclusion is helpful for financial institutes to expand the scale of stock pledged repos and control the risk of these repos. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Facility Rating of Small Industrial Enterprises Based on Likelihood Ratio Test ZHAO Zhi-chong, CHI Guo-tai 2017, 25 (1):  45-56.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.006 Abstract ( 1252 )   PDF (1633KB) ( 1120 )   Save Facility rating aims to evaluate the possibility of repayment or the loss given default (LGD) of one debt. It is hard for commercial banks to accurately evaluate the credit risk of small business loans, because of mall enterprises' high risk, small amount, and untrue financial data, etc. This paper established facility rating index system for small enterprises, which selected indicators based on the ability of distinguishing default state for the first time, while the second time was to avoid the information redundancy of selected indicators in the same guidelines layer. First,establishing logistic regression equation about default state and one indicator, then constructed χ2-statistic by comparing the log-likelihood values between the zero-model which has no any indicator and the full-model which has an indicator. The greater the deviation of those two log-likelihood values, the easier the indicator can distinguish the default state, that is to say, the indicator should be retained. It compensates the disadvantage that the existing research has nothing to do with the default state when screening indicators. Second,the paper avoided information redundant by calculating the correlation coefficient between any two indicators in the same criteria layer, if the correlation coefficient between these two indicators is greater than a threshold, then remove the indicator which has small χ2-value. This method can avoid redundant information and mistakenly deleting the indicator which has more significant impact on default state. What's more, it changes the disadvantage that the existing researches subjectively delete one indicator when the correlation coefficient is greater than the threshold. The results shows that the established debt rating system of small industrial businesses, including 26 indicators, such as asset-liability ratio, cost margins, the corporate credit situation nearly 3 years, by extracting the related data of 28 regional commercial bank branches of China. the paper can not only get the credit rating of the loan enterprises, but also get the loss given default of per credit rating. It changes the disadvantages that the existing research can only calculate the credit score and give credit rating. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Associated Credit Risk Contagion and Simulation Between Enterprises Based on the Incomplete Immune Scenario LI Yong-kui, ZHOU Yi-mao, ZHOU Zong-fang 2017, 25 (1):  57-64.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.007 Abstract ( 1248 )   PDF (1426KB) ( 1636 )   Save With further development of economic globalization and market economy, enterprises form complicated relationships through equity, guarantees, mutual insurance, connected transaction, financial derivatives, supply chain and the multiple identities of management and so on. As a result, the associated credit risk has become hot and difficult problems in risk managements of modern enterprise. Under the framework of small world network, this paper proposes the concept of "small world networks based on the affiliated enterprises cluster network". we apply mean field theory and principle of epidemiology in order to construct associated credit risk contagion model between enterprises based on asset-related relationship under the imperfect immunization scenario, to reveal and simulate the relation among associated credit risk contagion probability with imperfect immunization and asset-related in enterprises cluster network. The study finds that the threshold value of the associated credit risk contagion is reduced under the condition of the immune failure and immune invalidity, thereby, increasing the likelihood of related credit risk contagion; and the assets correlation between enterprises will influence associated credit risk contagion and immune effect. The study of this paper is helpful for the prevention and control of the spread of the associated credit risk in the affiliated enterprises cluster, it has far-reaching academic value and practical significance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Coordination Contract Model Considering Loss Aversion and Quality Level LIU Yun-zhi, FAN Zhi-ping 2017, 25 (1):  65-77.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.008 Abstract ( 1333 )   PDF (2725KB) ( 1715 )   Save Supply chain coordination and quality level are two crucial facts for supply chain to obtain a competitive advantage. Therefore, it is necessary to explore and analyze the supply chain coordination problem considering the quality level. In this paper, the two-stage supply chain coordination problem considering loss aversion and quality level is investigated. Based on loss-averse retailer assumption, the loss aversion of retailer is portrayed by the loss-averse utility given by Wang and Webster[31]. Then, the optimal strategies of the supplier and the loss-averse retailer are analyzed at the decentralized supply chian respectively. And the optimal strategies of the supplier and the retailer are analyzed at the centralized supply chain respectively. Meanwhile, the two-stage supply chain coordination problem with the wholesale price contract is studied. Further, a supply chain coordination contract model is constructed by combining the wholesale price contract and the quality cost sharing contract, and the validity of the model is proven. Through the analysis, the several conclusions are obtained as follows:under the decentralized supply chain, the supplier's quality level strictly increases with the loss-averse retailer's order quantity, and the loss-averse retailer's order quantity strictly increases with the supplier's quality level; under the centralized supply chain, the supplier's quality level strictly increases with the retailer's order quantity, and the retailer's order quantity strictly increases with the supplier's quality level; the wholesale price contract cannot coordinate the two-stage supply chain; the contract combined the wholesale price contract and the quality cost sharing contract can coordinate the two-stage supply chain under certain conditions. Furthermore, under the decentralized and centralized supply chain, the impacts of the changes of the parameters in the model on the optimal quality level and order quantity are presented through the sensitivity analysis of the parameters. The research results provide theoretical guidance for the supply chain managers or members. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Impact of Consumer's Anticipated Regret on Power Structure of Competitive Remanufacturing Supply Chain GAO Peng, DU Jian-guo, NIE Jia-jia, LU Yu-mei 2017, 25 (1):  78-87.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.009 Abstract ( 1421 )   PDF (1816KB) ( 1072 )   Save Anticipated regret is one important respond of psychology risk for consumers. Consumers might behave anticipated regret in their purchasing decisions for that it is difficult for them to assess the valuation of remanufactured products owing to the uncertainty in products' attributes. This would play a key role in the operation efficiency and power structure in supply chain with remanufacturing. However, the existing literature didn't pay their attentions to the problem. In this paper, the utility of consumer under anticipated regret is developed and demand functions of the new and remanufactured products are derived in order to study the influence of consumer's anticipated regret on supply chain. Then, the game models which are under the three power structures including no leader (NL), OEM is leader (OL) and IR is leader (IRL) are developed and solved. The relationships of product prices, demand quantity and anticipated regret and consumer heterogeneity among the above three power structures are analyzed based on theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. In addition, the preferences of each supply chain member, consumer and society for the three power structures are studied. The results show that the remanufactured product price has negative relationship with the sensitiveness of consumer's anticipated regret and consumer heterogeneity. Meanwhile, as the two parameters increasing, the demand of remanufactured product and profit of IR are increasing. It is found that OEM and IR might enjoy a "second-move advantage", which is decided by the sensitiveness of consumer's anticipated regret. In addition, when both the consumer's anticipated regret sensitiveness and heterogeneity are large enough, both consumers and society prefer OL model. However, in the other situations, consumers prefer NL model, but society might prefer IRL model or NL model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Selection of the Recycling Mode Based on Closed-loop Supply Chain Model CHEN Jun, TIAN Da-gang 2017, 25 (1):  88-97.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.010 Abstract ( 1290 )   PDF (2321KB) ( 1419 )   Save In recent years, under the double pressure of resource shortages and environmental pollution, countries launched a series of environmental regulations. It forced companies to carry out the recycling of waste products and remanufacturing in order to strengthen eco-environmental protections and put our development in harmony with the natural ecological system. So the closed-loop supply chain was put forward, because it can realize ecological benefits and economic benefits at the same time. Although the subject of the closed-loop supply chain recycling channel choiceboasts of an extensive literature, these documents rarely consider the cost factor.In this paper, weassume enterprise of this supply chain remanufacture ability is insufficient, which would need government subsidies to incentive for remanufacturing. Considering the management cost in the process of recycling and remanufacturing cost, a closed loop supply chain model of a manufacturer and a retailer and consumers is constructed.Under the direct recycling channel, manufacturer set up a recycling station to collect waste products from consumers and unsalable products in the life cycle from retailer. And then turn the waste into recycled product for the next sales season to sell. In this mode, manufacturers are responsible for the cost of management and recycling, the process does not involve retailer.Under the indirect recycling channel, retailer takes charge of collecting waste products from consumers, and covers its management cost. Meanwhile manufacturer made a contract with retailer to encourage retailer to recycle products that retailer can resell unsalable products in the life cycle to manufacturer at higher price than the recycling price.By the numerical simulation analysis, we discussed the influence of order quantity、order price and the income of members in supply chain with the changing of recycling and selling price under these two recycling channels. The conclusion is as follows.(1) In terms of the manufacturer, the income mainly affected by the recycling price and is better t in the direct recycling channel at first. But selecting direct recycling mode is the optimal choice with the increasing of recycling price.(2) In terms of the retailer, selecting direct recycling mode will be dominant when these two prices remain at low levels. But the situation will be on the contrary as these two prices increasingsimultaneously. And the income under directly recovery mode mainly affected by the recycling price, under indirectly recovery mode it mostly affected by the selling price.This paper toke some key cost factors into consideration to make the study more adapted to the realistic environment. Besides research conclusions about recycling channel choice of closed-loop supply chain provide the certain reference value for evolutionary game theory of choosing recycling channels. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Operational Efficiency Measurement of Agro-food Supply Chains: the Single “Farmer-Supermarket Direct Purchase” vs. Dual Channel PU Xu-jin, JIN De-long 2017, 25 (1):  98-105.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.011 Abstract ( 1557 )   PDF (1578KB) ( 1640 )   Save An agricultural cooperative is an association of farmers who voluntarily cooperate to pool their production for sale. In China, the agricultural cooperatives are increasingly encouraged to sell their fresh agricultural products to the supermarkets, and supermarkets hold a significant market share in agricultural product distribution from farms to final consumers. However, some of agricultural cooperatives still prefer to sell a part (or all) of their production directly to end consumers. In practice, many farmers combine direct selling and marketing through cooperatives. They sell part of their production to the cooperative and the rest is sold directly to the consumers. The combination of direct selling with supermarkets gives rise to a particular market structure for the agricultural cooperatives.The purpose of this paper is to study whether it is necessary for the cooperative to establish a community outlet store to sell fresh agricultural products to consumers directly. A model in which a agricultural cooperative is owned by many farmers who produce a homogeneous good is built. It's assumed that the supermarkets and the direct selling market are separated. The supermarkets are oligopolistic, but the price of fresh agricultural products in the direct selling market is controlled by government. The agricultural cooperative decides on the production quantity and how to share this production the supermarkets and the direct selling market. A Nash bargaining model is developed to analyze the game process between the cooperative and the supermarket. The equilibrium results are derived and the resulting profit sensitivity with respect to some factors is analyzed. Our analysis stresses three important results. First, it is find that the cooperative will benefit from the opening of the community outlet store, however the profit of supermarket will decrease. Second, as the bargaining power of the cooperative decreases, the degree of improvement for the cooperative's profit will become more significant. Finally, the operational efficiency of the whole supply chain can be improved significantly in the dual channel when the production capability of the cooperative is greater than a threshold. Simultaneously, a numerical simulation is proposed to prove the results. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it is an attempt to build a theoretical framework for a agricultural cooperative decides on how to share production between the supermarkets and the direct selling market. Second, the results of this paper can provide guidelines for the government in China to develop more efficient agricultural supply chains. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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How to Achieve Stable Match and Scale Linkage for Transaction between Power and Coal LIU Ping-kuo, TAN Zhong-fu 2017, 25 (1):  106-116.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.012 Abstract ( 1264 )   PDF (2414KB) ( 1482 )   Save In China's coal consumption structure, there are more than 33% of industrial coal used for thermal power generation. Coal transaction is not only related to China's economic growth and energy security, but also related to China's low carbon commitments and other climate issues. The existing researches have neglected an important research unit, Transaction, which results in the weak feasibility of the research conclusion and the insufficient implementation of the policy recommendations. By using the theory of transaction cost economics, the technology of agent-based computational economics and the algorithm of two-sided matching, a transaction development model between power and coal is built to analyze the mechanism of stable matches and the dynamic process of scale linkage. First, the property and the governance structure of "coal transaction" are defined theoretically. Second, the deferred choice and refusal algorithm are optimized to design a mechanism suitable for coal transaction with respect to matching. Third, score, potential profitability, intentional trust and elasticity are illustrated for sorting preferences, and Complex Adaptive System is used for boundary selection. Finally, through simulation, we verify the theoretical assumptions, the feasibility of our algorithm and the plausibility of our model are verified. The results show that:(1) Efficiency ensures the efficient supply and output of enterprises, trust' role is next to profit in the choice of partners. (2) When the coal enterprise's score is higher than the power enterprise's, power enterprise will tend to buy coal instead of make it; (3) to control and adjust the scale of coal industry, China should reasonably and moderately eliminate the coal enterprises with backward production capacity, and set some necessary barriers to market access through the power enterprises. The data in our paper is used for the simulation. The source of the initial value of our data is the China Electric Power Enterprises Association and the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. The main contributions of our paper include two aspects:on the one hand, the "transaction" is chosen as the research unit, the more advanced theoretical support and technical methods are exploited to build our model; on the other hand, a corresponding energy transaction mechanism, which would guide the reformation of China's energy system is formed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on Emergency Plan Reconstruction With Resource Constraint SHI Biao, CHI Hong, QI Ming-liang, LI Jia-lian 2017, 25 (1):  117-128.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.013 Abstract ( 1149 )   PDF (2085KB) ( 867 )   Save On the basis of the expression by the introduction of the network plan technique,the emergency disposal processes are added with resource types, quantity, and completion time constraints. The way to generate resource scheduling program is explored by computer on-line reconstruction. To satisfy the disposal need of many types of emergencies concurrent or secondary contingency, the quantity limitation and time-window of total resources constraints are considered in the model. The steps, objectives and considerations of the development in resource scheduling scheme are analyzed, and the models both in parallel and mutually exclusive scenarios are constructed, a heuristic algorithm is designed, using the contingency plans for reconstruction of the sample in an airline. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Hierarchical Scenario Model of Unconventional Emergency Based on Granular Computing CHEN Xue-long, LU Dan, DAI Peng 2017, 25 (1):  129-138.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.014 Abstract ( 1155 )   PDF (1228KB) ( 1106 )   Save To cover the shortages of existent scenario representation models and scenario construction methods for unconventional emergency in being used to support multi-level emergency management personnel, the formal representation of scenario elements is discussed firstly. Then, the hierarchical scenario model of unconventional emergency based on granular computing is proposed. Afterwards, the scenario generalization algorithm is put forward to realize the scenario generalization processes from low-level scenarios to up-level scenarios. In the end, an example is analyzed to illustrate the application process and to prove the scientificalness and the feasibility of the proposed model. The results show that the hierarchical scenario model of unconventional emergency based on granular computing can generate scenario structures of different granularities which can be used to support multi-level emergency management personnel on the basis of complex and uncertain scenario information. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Deconstruction of a Relief Material Supply Network and Corresponding Structure Optimization Model WANG Xi-hui, LI Feng, LIANG Liang 2017, 25 (1):  139-150.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.015 Abstract ( 1665 )   PDF (1276KB) ( 1804 )   Save Along with the increasing frequency of natural and man-made disasters all over the world, the demand for relief supplies has been accelerating in the last decade. When disasters strike a certain area, non-for-profit organizations (NGOs) will purchase relief supplies from suppliers and/or collect donations from donators, then deliver relief supplies to disaster-affected areas to help victims. In practice, however, the relief logistics suffers a serious delay, along with an enormous social and economic loss.The unreasonablestructure of the relief supply is a major reason. Therefore, it's necessary to study the relief supply network and explore its structure optimization. Towards this end, a complex relief supply network is deconstructed into 8 linear relief supply chains based on the purchase-warehousing-transportation decision-making process. This deconstruction method has three features:(i) completeness, the universal set of all substructures is the general structure; (ii) independence, every substructure is of independence and doesn't include or affect other substructures; and (iii) integrity, every substructure includes complete process and decisions of a relief effort. Afterwards, a structure optimization model is developed to obtain the optimal combination of relief supply chains to minimize the social loss of a relief operation. The purpose of the model is to obtain the minimum-cost supply chains combination without deteriorating the relief performance or the maximum-performance supply chains combination without increasing the monetary cost. Moreover, the proposed model is verified by the real data acquired from 5.30 YingJiang Earthquake in 2014. Different structure optimization results are compared and analyzed by adjusting parameters or changing external conditions. The comparison and analysis suggest that the types of relief supplies and affected areas have significant effect on the optimal network structure, while the demand quantity of relief supplies has little effect on the network structure. This study clarifies the constitution and process of a relief supply network, which lays the foundation for further improvement. The proposed structure optimization model not only can be used to construct a relief supply network in time for emergency situation, but also provide directional guidance for the construction of relief reserve system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Similarity of the Structured Emergency Events Based on Scenario ZHANG Ming-hong, SHE Lian, GENG Bo 2017, 25 (1):  151-159.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.016 Abstract ( 1474 )   PDF (2468KB) ( 1435 )   Save The similarity problem of emergency events is a difficult problem to be solved when the occurred emergency events in case-based reasoning technology are used for the auxiliary decision making.Thus in the horizontal aspect, the scenario chain is constructed in the order of time sequence based on the key decision points scenario. And in the vertical aspect, the constitutive model of "event-scenario-emergency tasks-emergency action" is Put forward. Then based on the scenario chain similarity algorithm the problem of finding similar emergencies and coping strategies is solved. The similarity of the scenario chain includes the similarity of the whole scenario chain and scenario node. Considering that the emergency level effects the emergency response, the algorithm of the scenario chain similarity is designed, firstly from the similarity of the scenario chain structure in the two similar emergencies including the similarity of the emergency level and the number of nodes, then the similarity between semantic concepts including the scenario name set overall similarity and the attribute similarity of scenario node, and finally the two emergency scenario chains overall similarity with this formula:Sij=[ω1,ω2,ω3]·[Sijlevel,SijNum,SijName]T.When it comes to the similarity of disposal task and emergency action, the similarity of disposal tasks overall set under the specific situation is calculated, and then similarity of emergency actions which are selected from the highest similarity of the two disposal tasks is calculated, and finally set the union set of the highest similarity of emergency actions is set, and the whole through the formula:Sab=[ω1,ω2,ω3]·[SabTask,Sabtask,SabAction]T is gotten. This study enriches and develops the theory of "scenario-response", and provides technical inputs for the emergency decision making method. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Game Strategies for the OEM and the Remanufacturer Under Different Decision Structures SUN Hao, YE Jun, HU Jin-song, DA Qing-li, WANG Kai 2017, 25 (1):  160-169.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.017 Abstract ( 1193 )   PDF (1747KB) ( 1415 )   Save In s closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) with collection and remanufacturing of old products, how to deal with the competitive threat from the external remanufacturer is an important issue for the original equipment manufacturer (OEM). For a two-period CLSC system comprised of an OEM and an independent remanufacturer, the optimal game strategies of both parties are discussed under three different decision structures:two types of competitive mode (competition with remanufacturing patent licensing and competition without remanufacturing patent licensing) and cooperative mode. In all three modes, the OEM produces and sells the new products in the first period. For the competitive mode with patent licensing, the remanufacturer collects and remanufactures the EOL products after the OEM's patent authorization in the second period, and then sells them in the market competing with the OEM. Otherwise, under the competitive mode without patent licensing, the remanufacturer can engage in these activities without the OEM's authorization. For the cooperative mode, the remanufacturer transfers the remanufactured products to the OEM, and then the OEM sells the two kinds of products simultaneously. Backward deduction method is used to derive and compare the optimal prices under the above three modes. The condition under which the remanufacturer engages in collection and remanufacturing is given. The impact of consumer preference for the remanufactured products on the equilibrium solutions and the profits of channel members are analyzed combined with numerical examples. The results show that:(1) From the perspective of environmental performance, the collection rate under the competitive mode without patent licensing is the highest, and then is the cooperative mode, the lowest is the competitive mode with patent licensing. The collection rates under all three modes increase in the consumer preference. (2) From the perspective of channel efficiency, the cooperative mode yields the highest system profit, and then is the competitive mode with patent licensing, the worst is the competitive mode without patent licensing. The total system profit under the competitive mode without patent licensing decreases in the consumer preference, whereas increases in the consumer preference in two other modes. (3) From the perspective of the OEM, he has no motive to cooperate with the remanufacturer if he can take advantage of the patent licensing mechanism to guarantee his own interest. On the contrary, he prefers to cooperate with the remanufacturer without patent licensing, but which meanwhile leads to the profit loss of the remanufacturer. So the reasonable contact should be provided to ensure the operations the cooperative mode. The conclusion of this paper can provide theoretical supports for the OEM to select reasonable competitive strategies or cooperative strategies with the remanufacturer in reality. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Method for Selecting Enterprise Business Model in the View of the Value Chain LIU Kai-ning, FAN Zhi-ping, LI Yong-hai, DAI Xiang-quan 2017, 25 (1):  170-180.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.018 Abstract ( 1586 )   PDF (1158KB) ( 1638 )   Save With the rapid development of economy and accelerating of internationalization, rivalries among enterprises are no longer limited to the competition of products and services; and it is evolved into competitions among business model of enterprises. Selecting the most suitable business model promotes the growth of enterprises' profitability and it also has significance impact on enterprises' future development. Many well-known enterprises have already started business model innovation and business model redesign in order to gain competitive advantages over competitors. Many scholars also have started academic studies of business model selection and innovation from different disciplines. The earlier studies of business model are concerned with the definitions of business model, the composition components of business model and the evaluation of business model. Recently, academic research on business model selection has caused scholars' attention, many scholars made considerable contributions within this academic field. Although existing researches provide valuable ideas and thoughts, there still lack of operational business model selection framework which is practicable in the real business environment, and also there are few research findings in the view of the value chain. In addition, the existing theories and concept ignores the correlations among evaluation indexes in the business model selection process. Therefore, how to select the desirable business model for enterprise using the decision analysis method in quality and quantity is an important research topic. In this paper, a new business model selection method is proposed in the view of the value chain. First, the framework of selecting business model is given based on the value chain. According to the given framework, the factors and corresponding evaluation indexes with regard to business model are determined through the related literature review. Next, the factor option groups with regard to business model can be formed through the selections of different factors, and the feasible factor option groups are screened in accordance with the compatibility evaluations among factor options and the rules of generating candidate business models. Afterwards, the set of candidate business models is set up according to the screened factor option groups. Furthermore, based on the linguistic correlated information among evaluation indexes provided by experts, the weights concerning evaluation indexes are determined using the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method, and base on the linguistic evaluation information concerning candidate business models provided by experts, the desirable business model of enterprise is selected using the extended technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method proposed in this paper. Finally, a case study on the development of business model for BGR Company is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the business model selection method proposed in this paper. The proposed systematic approach of business model selection in the view of the value chain shows features of clarified concepts and simplified calculations. Considering the method usually requires the participation of many experts, it might be necessary to develop specialized software application package and decision support system (DSS) to process large amounts of assessment information in order to be more efficiently and effectively. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Time-Space Theory of Leadership and Management CHEN Guo-quan 2017, 25 (1):  181-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.01.019 Abstract ( 1940 )   PDF (2585KB) ( 1552 )   Save In this paper, a new metaphor of organization is proposed. Organizations could be seen as Time-Space Systems, including time and space factors. Based on this metaphor, a time-space theory of leadership and management, which shows that leaders and managers can analyze organizations from a time-space perspective, namely in the dimensions of time and space,is proposed. Time perspective includes learning and innovation. Space perspective includes level and dimension perspective. Organizational system could be divided into several levels from micro to macro, such as individual, group, organization and so on. All levels are interacted with each other. Organizational system could also be divided into method dimension which includes goal and approach system, interest and power system, belief and value system, and so on,and resource dimension which includes human capital, material capital, financial capital,and so on. The paper put forwards a series of theoretical propositions and practical methodologies. Several simplified models and the related tools are proposed, and then four-dimensional theory of organizational analysis and design is articulated. Leaders and managers should build up their time-space leadership and enhance their time-space emotional quotient, intelligence quotient and time-space wisdom. Leaders and managers should not only analyze and design organizations in a systematic view but also grasp some key factors, in order to improve organizational effectiveness, decrease bias and get more satisfactory solutions for decision making, build competitive advantage, and maintain sustainability, as well as harmonious and healthy development. Further, leaders and managers should make great efforts to know both micro and macro, both softness and hardness, both constant and change, and then reach a state of the unity of knowing and doing, and improve the unity of human and heaven and harmoniousness of society, and then build a better society. References | Related Articles | Metrics