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20 October 2021, Volume 29 Issue 10 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model with GARCH Error Terms and It’s Applications SHEN Genxiang, ZHANG Jingze 2021, 29 (10):  1-11.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1673 Abstract ( 695 )   PDF (967KB) ( 694 )   Save Dynamic Nelson-Siegel term structure model (DNS hereafter)of interest rate has been extensively studied and widely applied because of its strong ability to fit yield curve. The DNS model has been reformulated as a linear Gaussian state space model with error terms of constant variances both in measurement and transition equations, which is not able to capture the dynamics in conditional covariance of yields. In this article, the conditional heteroscedasticity in the error terms of the DNS model is introduced to improve its fitting performance and forecasting ability. We extend the model by specifying the dynamic models of error term variances in measurement equation as GARCH and that in transition equation as general autoregressive score (GAS) proposed by Creal et al. (2013) using observation-driven method. The decomposition and reparameterization methods are employed to ensure the positiveness of conditional variance matrix. The empirical evidence of considerable increase in within-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting goodness for these advances is present in the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model in China bond market. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Crowding-out Effect of Financial Assets Investment on Innovation Investment LI Chaofan, MENG Qingxi, WANG Shengnian 2021, 29 (10):  12-22.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.0563 Abstract ( 478 )   PDF (968KB) ( 571 )   Save Based on the background of the economics when capital flows from the real economy to virtual economy, the negative effects of the financial assets investment on the innovation activities, and the role of short selling and margin trading system on such negative effects are studied. Based on the samples between 2007 and 2015 of the listed companies, the empirical studies show that, the financial asset investment hinders the innovation investment because enterprises introduce more external risks and aggravate the financing constraints of the innovative investment during the process of financial asset investment.Based on the policy of short selling and margin trading activities, the further studies find that, by increasing the risk and financing constraints of the companies who participate in the short selling and margin trading activities, the short selling and margin trading activities finally increase the crowding-out effect of financial asset investment on innovation investment.Accordingly, it is necessary to prevent the companies from overinvesting in financial assets and optimize the short selling and margin trading system, so as to make the capital market better to enhance the productivity of the real economy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Efficiency Evaluation of China Commercial Banks Based on Two-stage Cross Efficiency Model XUE Kaili, FAN Jianping, KUANG Haibo, ZHAO Miao, WU Meiqin 2021, 29 (10):  23-34.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1523 Abstract ( 479 )   PDF (2523KB) ( 1100 )   Save With the rapid development of the China's economy, the healthy development of the Banks is crucial to the China's economy. Under the new situation, commercial banks are faced with various new challenges and opportunities. How to evaluate bank efficiency is the key step to improve bank competitiveness. In order to evaluate the efficiency of China's commercial banks better, the cross efficiency is introduced in the traditional two-stage DEA model, and the internal structure of the two-stage production system is optimized, then a two-stage cross efficiency model considering shared inputs and undesired outputs is constructed. Finally, combined with the 2006-2015 annual financial statement of 16 commercial banks in China, the traditional two-stage DEA model and the new model is used to evaluate the efficiency of the sample banks. The results show that the new model is more objective and more stable than the traditional model, and it is more suitable for evaluating the efficiency of commercial banks in China. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Time-varying Effects of Monetary Policy Rules on International Capital Flow and RMB Exchange Rate—— Empirical Test Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model LI Chenggang, LI Feng, ZHAO Guanghui 2021, 29 (10):  35-46.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1920 Abstract ( 434 )   PDF (1099KB) ( 663 )   Save The main regulatory goals of traditional monetary policy rules are output and inflation, which have a good effect on the stability and development of the macro-economy.With the deep integration of the world economy, the frequent inflow and outflow of international capital and the violent fluctuations of foreign exchange market, which all together have caused the expanding volatility of China’s economy. Therefore, in an open economy, the stability of international capital flows and exchange rate are consideredvital economic indicators that a country's central bank shouldtake into seriousconsider when formulating monetary policy. However, there are disagreement on whether quantitative or price rules are more effective in stabilizing international capital flows and RMB exchange rate. In view of this, the “multi-objective” monetary policy rule theoretical model is construated to stabilize international capital flow and RMB exchange rate. And using monthly data from January 1998 to November 2019, the TVP-SV-VAR model is established in an open economyto empirically test the time-varying and dynamic impact of money supply shock and interest rate shock on international capital flow and RMB exchange rate under different monetary policy rules. The results show that: (1) An different time periods, the impact of monetary policy shock on international capital flows and RMB exchange rate have strong time-varying characteristics. (2) The equal interval impulse response shows that the short-term effect of monetary policy shocks on international capital flows is higher than that in the medium and long-term, but the impact on the RMB exchange rate show signs of hysteresis and diffusion, and price rules are more conducive to smoothing the impact of external shocks on international capital flows and RMB exchange rate. (3) The point-in-time impulse response shows that the impact of interest rate shocks on international capital flows and RMB exchange rate is weaker than that of money supply shocks, and the impact of interest rate shocks on international capital flows returns to steady-state equilibrium more quickly. Therefore, price rule is superior to quantitative rule in the effect of stabilizing international capital flow and RMB exchange rate. The choice of monetary policy rules of the Chinese central bank should gradually change from quantitative rule to price rule, which also serves the best choice for the Chinese central bank to implement monetary policy to regulate macro-economy in the post-financial crisis era. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Ambiguity Aversion and Time-consistent Optimal Investment for Asset-liability Management under the Heston Model YANG Lu, ZHANG Chengke, ZHU Huainian, LI Fangchao 2021, 29 (10):  47-57.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1991 Abstract ( 352 )   PDF (2147KB) ( 388 )   Save This paper focuses on an asset-liability management problem for an investor who can invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process is described by the Heston model, while the liability process is described by a Brownian motion with drift. The objective of the Ambiguity-Averse Investor (AAI) is to find a robust optimal investment strategy under the mean-variance criterion. By applying stochastic control theory, a verification theorem is provided and proved and the corresponding extended HJB equation is established. Furthermore, the robust equilibrium investment strategy and the corresponding equilibrium value function are derived by solving the extended HJB equation. Finally, numerical examples are also provided to illustrate how the optimal robust investment strategy changes and utility improvement when some model parameters vary. Our main findings are: (1) when the correlation coefficient between the price of risky assets and its variance is non-negative number, the bigger the fluctuation of stock variance, the more disadvantageous investment. (2) when the correlation coefficient between the price of risky assets and its variance greater, the risk of risky assets is greater, and investors will adopt a conservative investment strategy. (3) when investors have more debt, they hedge their bets by investing in riskier assets. (4) ignoring model uncertainty leads to significant utility loss for the AAI. These result analyses reveal some interesting phenomena and provide useful guidance for optimal investment of asset-liability management in reality. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Choice of Cost Sharing Strategy in E-commerce Supply Chain Considering Platform Digital Empowerment XIAO Di, CHEN Ying, WANG Jiayan, LU Qihui 2021, 29 (10):  58-69.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2175 Abstract ( 653 )   PDF (1114KB) ( 1143 )   Save In recent years, e-commerce platforms have begun to empower supply chain members by virtue of their advantages in the field of digital intelligence, which has greatly affected the operational decisions and benefits of e-commerce supply chain members. For example, Alibaba released a data analysis system in 2018 called “Intelligent Supply Chain Brain”, using big data and algorithms to optimize supply chain decisions, and Nestle became the first brand to use this intelligent system. Nestle can check its order quantity, transportation time, inventory amount and turnover days through this system, and optimize its production, inventory and sales management based on this. After using this system, the inventory turnover of its Tmall official flagship store has dropped by 40%, and the efficiency of attracting new customers has increased by more than 98%. This phenomenon is reqarded as platform digital empowerment. According to the business practice and related literature description, platform digital empowerment is defined as the behavior that the platform relies on its massive operational data, with the help of emerging information technologies such as big data and cloud computing to gain insight into consumer characteristics and provide more accurate and intelligent data strategy support for supply chain partners. The platform digital empowerment helps to improve the supply chain partners' ability to apply data and improve their operational efficiency. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Supply Chain Financing Decision Considering Supplier Product Delivery Level NIU Panfeng, HOU Wenhua 2021, 29 (10):  70-83.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0572 Abstract ( 409 )   PDF (1595KB) ( 662 )   Save In order to reduce production costs, many manufacturers purchase products from small and medium-sized suppliers. Small and medium-sized suppliers usually can only deliver product orders at a certain delivery level, and the product delivery level of supplier directly affects the production of downstream manufacturers, but this phenomenon has not been paid much attention to by supply chain finance. Therefore, the supplier delivery level and the operation financing of the supply chain are studied, and the supplier delivery level is considered as a decision variable. By studying the optimal operation decision and financing strategy of the suppliers when the suppliers with insufficient funds use the advance payment financing of manufacturer and the equity financing of venture investors respectively, the suppliers’ choice of the two financing methods is finally considered. The results show that the level of self-owned funds of suppliers has a great influence on supply chain equilibrium decision and its benefits. Whether the supplier has sufficient capital or chooses financing, the profit of the supplier is not only related to its own operational efficiency, but also greatly related to the wholesale price of the products of the alternative supplier；When the operating efficiency of the supplier is low, the profit of the supplier increases first and then decreases with the wholesale price of the products of the alternative supplier, and when the supplier operation efficiency is high, the supplier’s profit as the alternative suppliers products wholesale prices increased gradually; When the supplier conducts financing, if the level of self-owned capital is relatively low, it should adopt the method of equity financing; if the level of self-owned capital is relatively high, the supplier should choose the method of advance payment by the manufacturer for financing. If the amount of self-owned funds exceeds the threshold value of funds required by the supplier in case of prepayment financing, the supplier chooses not to finance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Integration and Optimization of Supply Chain Resources for Unmanned Retail Terminals Based on Customer Demand Preference SUO Lisai, YAO Jianming, ZHOU Jiahui 2021, 29 (10):  84-95.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0092 Abstract ( 422 )   PDF (1923KB) ( 568 )   Save The focus of unmanned retail terminals for new retail is how to provide customers with a satisfactory shopping experience. At present, when providing services, unmanned retail terminals pay more attention to customers' demands for commodity types in different scenarios, and often ignore other differentiated demands such as price, quality and shopping time. However, the characteristic of unmanned retail terminals, such as unattended operation, the need for flexible replenishment and distribution of goods, determine that in providing differentiated services, it is inseparable from the effective support of the supply chain network, which requires the reasonable integration of various resources in the supply chain network. Based on the analysis of customer demand preference under different scenarios, the selection mechanism of supply chain members in the integration of unmanned retail terminal resources is discussed, and the mining and classification methods of key factors is put forward in this paper. On this basis, the corresponding integration optimization model and algorithm are constructed. Finally, based on the relevant data of an unmanned retail terminal enterprise in Beijing, the feasibility, effectiveness and operability of the integrated optimization model and the improved ant algorithm are verified. The research results show that the resource integration of the unmanned retail terminal supply chain network from the customer’s demand preference in different scenarios can effectively improve customer satisfaction in different scenarios. The ideas and methods of supply chain resource integration optimization proposed in this paper have important reference significance for unmanned retail terminal enterprises to meet customer needs and achieve long-term development. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Risk Transmission of Manufacturer-led Supply Chain Under Fairness Preference WANG Junjin, LIUJiaguo, XU Wenli 2021, 29 (10):  96-106.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1634 Abstract ( 790 )   PDF (1980KB) ( 457 )   Save In order to research the impact of fairness preference on supply chain risk transmission, the fairness preference utility function is introduced to construct a risk transmission model in a manufacturer-led supply chain. And the risk elasticity coefficient is obtained by the analogy of the price elasticity coefficient, and then the fairness preference matrix is used to solve the problem of pricing and revenue risk transmitting caused by the variation of production cost.The research shows that the manufacturer’sfairness preference has a positive effect on the risk of both wholesale price and sales price. When retailer has its fairness preference alone, it will only has a negative effect on wholesale price risk. When both the members have the fairness preferences respectively, manufacturer’sfairness preference will stimulate the retailer’sfairness preference to reduce the sales price risk. Market size will weaken the influence of fairness preference on pricing risk, while it will be strengthened by the price sensitivity.A general conclusion is proposed and demonstrated for the revenue risk transmitting: The revenue risk transmitting has nothing to do with fairness preference but is only related with the external market.Numerical simulation shows that retailers need to rationally grasp the degree of fairness preference to control pricing risk, while manufacturers need to pay more attention to fairness to reduce pricing risk. The results give a certain reference to the rational balance of revenue and risk, and have important guiding significance for the benign development of supply chain risk management under the irrational characteristics. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Incentive Mechanism of PPP Project under Dual Information Asymmetry Based on Fair Preference WANG Xianjia, YUAN Suiqiu, LIN Zhenzhou, ZHAO Jinhua, QIN Ying 2021, 29 (10):  107-120.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0429 Abstract ( 525 )   PDF (1511KB) ( 970 )   Save The capability and effort level in PPP project are social capital’s private information. How to induce social capital to display real capability and effort level has been an important issue in the research of PPP project governance. In traditional research of incentive governance of PPP project, it is often assumed that social capital has only single private information, thus forming single adverse selection or moral hazard problems. However, in actual production of incentive governance of PPP project, social capital often has dual private information of his capability and effort level, leading to the coexistence of adverse selection with asymmetric information of type and moral hazard with asymmetric information of behavior. In this study, the incentive mechanism with coexistence of adverse selection and moral hazard in PPP project is designed. The incentive mechanism model for social capital with private information of capability and effort level is constructed, which takes output performance as incentive approach. Through designing of the optimal contract, the gain of social capital by claiming false information is not greater than that of reporting his true information, so that social capital is driven to display real capability and exert optimal effort level, and project efficiency is ensured. Moreover, fair preference of social capital is considered, and the effect of fair preference on incentive mechanism design under dual asymmetric information is discussed. Results corroborate that through reasonable incentive mechanism design of PPP project, dual purposes of information screening and inducing effort of social capital can be realized. Incentive intensity of the government is related to market distribution of social capital. Moreover, it will increase with improvement of envy preference intensity and weakening of blamed preference intensity of social capital. The developed model and method can provide decision-making basis and reference for solving the problem of incentive mechanism of PPP project. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Co-Opetition Strategy Choices of Retailers Based on Service Competition under Different Market Entry Standards XIAO Dan, NIE Shanshan, ZHOU Yongwu, LUO Yan 2021, 29 (10):  121-130.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1249 Abstract ( 387 )   PDF (1435KB) ( 437 )   Save In China, the market can be divided into two categories according to the entry standards of the industry to which the commodity belongs: one is a market that is strictly controlled by the government and has the fixed number of entry companies; the other is a market that is loosely regulated by the government, in this type of market, as long as the company’s profit that reach a certain level and meet relevant requirements, he can freely choose whether to enter. The first type of market is called a regulated market, and the second type of market is called a free market. However, whether in a regulated market or a free market, service has become a very important factor affecting consumer demand. In the actual operational management, many managers are constantly exploring service model that can reduce service operation cost and bring greater benefit. As far as we know, there are three different models for retailers to provide services to consumers, namely the independent service mode, the cooperative service mode and the unified service platform. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Information Sharing Mechanism of Emission Reduction in Supply Chain Based on Blockchain under Information Asymmetry LI Jian, YI Lan, XIAO Yao 2021, 29 (10):  131-139.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1076 Abstract ( 904 )   PDF (1557KB) ( 1690 )   Save information asymmetry is the main factor that hinders the supply chain multi-agent collaborative emission reduction. Aiming at the efficiency loss of supply chain collaborative emission reduction caused by consumers' hidden low-carbon preference, by comparing with the supply chain emission reduction information screening mechanism based on principal-agent theory, a supply chain collaborative emission reduction information sharing mechanism based on blockchain drive is designed.The research shows that consumer’s extra information rent is the main factor leading to the loss of emission reduction efficiency in the supply chain. Manufacturer and supplier can obtain additional information sharing benefits by sharing a certain proportion of the cost of “blockchain+collaborative emission reduction” technology investment.The information sharing mechanism of “blockchain+collaborative emission reduction” can effectively improve the revenue of the supply chain while eliminating the information rent, and there is an optimal proportion to balance the revenue of manufacturer and supplier and optimize the revenue of the supply chain.The information sharing mechanism of “blockchain+collaborative emission reduction” can effectively improve the collaborative emission reduction efficiency of upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain, which is one of the important paths to promote the emission reduction task in the 14th Five Year Plan period. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Ordering and Capacity Rationing for Experience Goods with Consumers’ Bounded Rationalities XU Jian, DUAN Yongrui 2021, 29 (10):  140-150.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1669 Abstract ( 330 )   PDF (1035KB) ( 594 )   Save An experience good is any product whose valuation cannot be easily assessed ex ante by consumers. The short sales period and the valuation uncertainty are two predominant characteristics of experience goods.In the regular period, although many sellers offer money-back guarantees to consumers, some of them may forget to return products even if they feel unsatisfied. In the discount period, consumers may regret their waiting behavior when they find products are sold out. Returns forgetfulness and stockout regret are two common boundedly rational behaviors of consumers in reality. Both of them have significant influence on the seller’s ordering and capacity rationing decisions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Influence of New Energy Vehicle Consumption Promotion Policy on the Purchase Intention of Potential Consumers LI Chuang, YE Lulu, WANG Liping 2021, 29 (10):  151-164.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1845 Abstract ( 1512 )   PDF (1412KB) ( 3398 )   Save How to improve the purchase intention of potential consumers is very important to promote the development of new energy vehicle market. Based on SOR theory, the influence of new energy vehicle consumption promotion policy on potential consumers is analyzed by using structural equation model through a questionnaire survey in four counties of Luoyang City, Henan Province. The results show that: ① The consumption promotion policies affect the purchase intention of potential consumers through perceived value and perceived risk, among which the charging policy has the largest impact, the right of way policy is the second, the publicity policy is the third, and the purchase policy has the smallest impact. Therefore, it is unlikely to happen that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will drop sharply after the cancellation of car purchase policy. ② Potential consumers pay more attention to the perceived value of new energy vehicles in the early stage and less attention to the use risk in the later stage. The more complete the publicity policy, car purchase policy and charging policy are, the higher the perceived value of new energy vehicles for potential consumers is, the more incentive they are to purchase. ③ Among different groups, the adjustment of income and education background on the purchase intention of new energy vehicles is more obvious. Potential consumers with high income and high education pay more attention to their use rights and interests after purchase, such as the right of way policy and charging policy, while potential consumers with low education and low income pay more attention to their consumption rights and interests in the early stage, such as the economic incentive of purchase policy. In terms of the impact path of every policy on perceived risk, the perceived risk of low-income and low educated groups is generally more significant than that of high educated and high-income groups. Finally, this paper proposes that the consumption promotion policy on new energy vehicle should pay attention to the improvement of the charging market, gradually transfer the economic subsidy policy to the charging infrastructure and the preferential policy of the right of way, and implement the differentiating and diversified promotion policies for the different potential consumers. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Modeling Method of Concurrent Emergency Chain Based on Bayesian Network CHEN Xuelong, JIANG Kun 2021, 29 (10):  165-177.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.1561 Abstract ( 515 )   PDF (1131KB) ( 885 )   Save In realistic circumstances, because of the similarities between the hazard factors and their affected objects in different emergencies, the occurrence of initial emergencies is likely to trigger the concurrence and coupling of multiple secondary emergencies, which makes the evolution of emergencies more uncertain and causes more serious losses. However, the existing emergency chain evolution analyses mostly used serial emergency chains, which is less applicable to concurrent emergencies. In view of the above problems, this paper presents a modeling method of concurrent emergency chain based on Bayesian Network to model the parallel evolution of concurrent emergencies. Firstly, emergency is described as a complex system composed of input, state, output attributes and the mutual influence relationships between them. And the causality and coupling relationships between emergencies are analyzed and defined on attribute level. Secondly, Bayesian network is applied to represent a single emergency formally. Based on the defined causality and coupling relationships between emergencies, the identification method of the causality and coupling relationships between single emergency Bayesian networks, the association method of concurrent emergency Bayesian networks, and the concrete construction method of the Bayesian network on concurrent emergency chain are put forward. Thirdly, the reasoning algorithm and its complexity and feasibility of the constructed concurrent emergencies Bayesian network are discussed. Through the Bayesian network reasoning process, the evolution analysis of concurrency emergencies can be realized in case of the prior probabilities between network nodes are obtained based on historical data analysis. Finally, to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed methods, the historical data of rainstorm disasters and the subsequent secondary disasters, such as mudslides, landslides, and floods and so on, in Sichuan Province from 2008 to 2015 is collected. Then the K2 network learning method is used to study the historical data to generate the Bayesian network of each disaster. Based on the identification of the interrelationships between the single Bayesian networks corresponding to each disaster, the integrated Bayesian network is constructed by correlating the interrelated single Bayesian networks. Taking the rainstorm disaster happened in August 16, 2015 in Yibin City as an example to instantiate the initial evidence information of the constructed integrated Bayesian network, the joint tree reasoning method is applied to predict the possible losses caused by the rainstorm and its derivative disasters. The analyses of the prediction result and the comparison with related serial emergency chains verify the scientificalness and effectiveness of the proposed methods while being used in evolution analysis of concurrent emergencies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Social Network Group Decision-Making Model Based on Trust Relationship and Information Measures with Probabilistic Linguistic Information JIN Feifei, LIU Jinpei, CHEN Huayou, DU Pengcheng 2021, 29 (10):  178-190.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1061 Abstract ( 497 )   PDF (1024KB) ( 1161 )   Save The probabilistic linguistic term sets are useful tool to address situations, in which the decision makers (DMs) are more comfortable providing their evaluation information linguistically rather than numerical values, and it is more reasonable and convenient to present the linguistic values by including an occurrence probability. Designing the calculation model of expert weights and attribute weights are two significant and challenging research issues in recent years. A probabilistic linguistic social network group decision-making model is investigated based on trust relationship and information measures to solve the group decision-making problem, in which evaluation information is a probabilistic linguistic trust function. Firstly, a probabilistic linguistic decision space based on trust relationship is constructed, and the trust propagation model among experts is explored to identify the incomplete trust relationship in the probabilistic linguistic trust relationship matrix. The weights of experts are calculated by using the trust relationship among experts. Then, two axiomatic definitions of information measures for probabilistic linguistic trust functions are presented, including the probabilistic linguistic trust function entropy and the probabilistic linguistic trust function similarity measure, to measure the uncertainty degree of probabilistic linguistic trust functions and the similarity degree between probabilistic linguistic trust functions. Subsequently, the calculating methods of probabilistic linguistic trust function’s entropy and similarity measure are designed by using triangular function. Finally, based on trust relationship and information measures, a probabilistic linguistic social network group decision-making model is constructed to derive the reasonable and reliable decision-making results. The proposed social network group decision-making model is applied to the selection of electric vehicle suppliers, and the comparison with existing approach is performed to validate the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Stochastic Evolutionary Game Analysis of Multiple Supervision Paths of Enterprise R&D Manipulation LI Junqiang, REN Hao, ZHEN Jie 2021, 29 (10):  191-201.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1884 Abstract ( 396 )   PDF (1237KB) ( 555 )   Save Based on the R&D manipulation phenomenon existing in the high-tech enterprise declaration, a three-party stochastic evolutionary game model of local government, applicant enterprise and intermediary institution is constructed. Stochastic differential equation theory is considered in the replicator dynamics equation of classical evolutionary game in order to simulate the external random interference between multi-players. The boundary conditions of the stable solution of the equation are solved. Variable effects on cooperation strategy of three parties including the influence of direction and degree is given through MATLAB simulation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Graph Neural Network Recommendation Study Combining Trust and Reputation in Social E-commerce HU Chunhua, DENG Ao, TONG Xiaoqin, MIAO He, WANG Zongrun 2021, 29 (10):  202-212.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0708 Abstract ( 517 )   PDF (1431KB) ( 590 )   Save Amid rapid development of social network, growing number of users leads to excessive information, challenging the beneficiaries in theory to filter the valuable bits. One question raised along this, which requires users to identify trustworthy content, presents researchers with the idea of studying the role of which trust relations among users play in social e-commerce. Some exploring in this field sees a connection between item ratings and trust relations of users, however, there often lacks integrity in reliable trust relation data, and even those that doesn’t show great disparity. Hence, a method to identify content and information that users trusted more swiftly and precisely is still in great demand. Also, researchers show increasing interest in the position that user reputation played in effecting user trust and how to merge those two to offer more satisfying recommendation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Research on Firms’ Optimal Sharing Reward Program on Social Media WEI Wei, MEI Shue, ZHONG Weijun 2021, 29 (10):  213-223.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0079 Abstract ( 453 )   PDF (1063KB) ( 587 )   Save Influenced by social media, more and more firms have developed sharing reward programs (SRPs) to attract potential customers. Potential customers can be reached through SRPs when existing customers refer to their friends. And the persuasion effect is more effective than mass advertisement due to the social capital among users on social media. However, the SRP can also cost the firms a lot because the bonuses are highly dependent on the successful purchase of the inductees. Thus, the main objectives of the paper are to answer the following questions: (1) Compared with traditional mass advertising marketing, whether it is more profitable to adopt SRPs? (2) How to design the optimal mechanism of SRPs? (3) How to utilize firms’ capital to stimulate the inductors to persuade their friends to purchase the products? A “nested” Stackelberg game is developed, which includes an inner game and an outer game. The inner game is between the inductor and the inductee. For the given bonus and discount, the inductor who is the leader firstly decides whether to make efforts to share information to their friend (the inductee). Then the inductee decides whether to purchase the products. The outer game is among the firm, the inductor and the inductee, where the firm acts as the game leader. Once the inner game equilibrium is reached, the firm’s optimal sharing bonus and the discount can be determined. Meanwhile the comparison of profits is made between mass advertising marketing and sharing reward program. Some interesting observations are found. First, there are optimal three kinds of reward strategies of sharing reward program, which are reward the inductee only, reward the inductor only and reward both. The choice of the strategy is relied on price and relationship between users. Second, the choice of the strategy is relied on price and relationship between users. If the relationship is weak, the impact of discount is stronger than the impact of sharing. And it is reasonable to reward the inductee only. It is on the contrary if the relationship is strong. And it is suitable to reward the inductor only. Moreover, the main factors which have influence on whether adopting direct marketing or sharing reward program are market penetration and social relationship. Taking the social relationship into consideration, the study makes some contribution to the research of sharing reward program mechanism. And it also implies that firms should take full advantage of social capital among users when deploying the capital to inductors or inductees. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Construction and Application of the Customer Value Portrait Model of Industrial Power Enterprise in China YAN Hongxu , YU Shunkun , LIN Yiqing 2021, 29 (10):  224-235.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2181 Abstract ( 481 )   PDF (4020KB) ( 1142 )   Save Under the macro background that the novel Coronavirus epidemic had a huge impact on China’s electric power market, in order to further improve the efficiency of marketing service resource allocation of China’s power supply enterprises and maximize the comprehensive benefits of power supply enterprises, a study is carried out on the user value portrait model of China’s industrial power. The power user value is analyzed and defined, and the SECO indicator model of China’s industrial power user value evaluation is constructed from four dimensions: safety ＆ stability value (S), economic benefit value (E), contract credit value (C) and ordered power value (O), also at the same time, RST (Rough Set Theory) in intelligent algorithm and PAM (Partitioning Around Medoids) in data mining technology are combined to construct a semi-supervised automatic user value identification and feature display model. The model includes three modules: RST based index model design, user value evaluation based on Gower distance and PAM, and value feature visualization via user portraits. Among them, in order to enhance the scientificity and reliability of the cluster results, Hopkins statistics is used to access the clustering tendency, gap statistics is used to output the optimal number of cluster approach, and silhouette coefficient is used to evaluate the model effect and identify the misjudged samples. The model is tested and applied to the user data of a power supply enterprise affiliated to China Southern Power Grid, and a highly explanatory and persuasive user segmentation scheme is obtained, which indicates that the model is a set of feasible and effective user value rating and feature visualization tool. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on Evolution Game of Two sides with Public Health Considering Public Participation in Environmental Behavior as Major Parameter QU Weihua, YIN Jie, ZHANG Xindong 2021, 29 (10):  236-248.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2193 Abstract ( 449 )   PDF (10787KB) ( 590 )   Save Public participation in environmental behavior, which is an important part of the deepening reform of ecological civilization has a non-negligible impact on the level of public health caused by pollutants emissions from fossil fuels. Environmental pollution originates from fossil energy use in enterprises and lax government oversight, which damage to public health. An interactive model between the enterprise’s energy transformation and government regulation is built considering the public participation in environmental management skills, environmental knowledge mastery, and public own health concern using evolutionary theories in which the public is set a main strategy of parameters, and enterprise and governments are set as the two principal parts that influenced public health. It is followed by numerical simulation with a questionnaire and the replicator dynamic equation, analyzing the evolutionary process of the interactive behavior of enterprises and government with the software of Matlab, showing that the effect of each different parameter from a game subject on the strategy of evolutionary results. The model presents two evolutionarily stable strategies: one is a set of a strategy, regulation and non-transformation, another is regulation and transformation. It is found that the extent of environmental control and the degree of public health care affect the evolutionary path of the enterprise’s transformation and government regulation. Compensation for public health loss is an important factor of government strict regulation. The degree of mastering government regulation knowledge, implementation of energy policy, the cost of energy transformation and additional income are important factors of the enterprise’s energy transformation. Besides, the result of the research shows that public health losses are going to go down significantly only can be the parameters for each subject of the game changed together, moreover, public pro-environmental behavior reaches over 90%. A strategy change of a single subject couldn’t act on public health improvement. The ideal evolutionary strategy of {implementing energy transformation, government non-regulation} has not shown up yet in the current situation of China. It also can be found that the public participation in environmental behavior has a positive effect on energy transformation as long as the public participates in environmental governance, regardless of how much to participate in the extent of environmental behavior. This article provides a new perspective for stimulating public participation in environmental behaviors and promoting the formulation of corporate energy transition and public health promotion policies. References | Related Articles | Metrics