Table of Content

20 September 2022, Volume 30 Issue 9 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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A Robust Portfolio Selection Model Based on Investor’s Views ZHAO Da-ping, BAI Lin, FANG Yong, WANG Shou-yang 2022, 30 (9):  1-9.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2241 Abstract ( 702 )   PDF (1032KB) ( 1102 )   Save As an improvement of mean variance model,Black-Litterman model is one of the most popular methods in asset allocation. An analytical framework is provided that combines the investors’ expectation of the market with the market equilibrium rate of return, and several problems of the mean variance model are solved, such as lack of dispersion, high sensitivity to parameters, and so on. Therefore, Black-Litterman has been widely concerned by the academic community, and has achieved good results in practical application. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Channel Competition Strategy of Financial Recommendation Service YANG Mei, WANG Zong-run 2022, 30 (9):  10-22.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0912 Abstract ( 517 )   PDF (4795KB) ( 799 )   Save Due to the limited cognitive ability of investors in financial products, they mainly rely on external “value signals” to form their “aspirations” of earnings expectations to simplify the investment process.Thus, financial recommendation service competition is the inevitable result when digital platforms have successfully expanded their business to areas traditionally covered by banks. In this study, a new three-party dual-channel game model is considered where the platform steers investors by recommending firms taking into account both the commissions firms offer and the prices they set,and the bankmakes use of investors’ perception of value and rivals’ characteristics to take advantage of customers’ misunderstanding of “aspirations” by adjusting the sales intensity of financial advisors θ. It is assumed that the naive investors will inspect only the product ranked first by the intermediary, while sophisticated investors will find the financial product with the largest expected revenue on the platform through sequential searches. Based on revenue maximization, all investors decide whether to buy products in either the bank or the platform. Finally, according to the equilibrium solution and numerical analysis, the research shows that the effective allocation of financial service intensity enhances the competitiveness of banks, but the investor surplus is often completely deprived. Interestingly, in the competition with the platform, the bank has added additional motivation to provide financial knowledge literacy, and may prefer a strong rather than a weak enemy. In addition, the bank should attempt to control the cost of services to avoid the risk of regulators blocking the sale of financial products to prevent malicious competition. The model in this paper further confirms that the investors’ perceived value plays a very important role in regulating the bank’s marketing investment and provides various feasible suggestions for the bank looking to implement precision marketing based on data analysis. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Individual Stock Sentiment, Private Placement, and Tunneling: Empirical Evidence from Chinese A-Share Listed Companies WANG Jian, LI Ming-cao, GUO Wen-xuan, JIANG Zhong-zhong 2022, 30 (9):  23-35.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1533 Abstract ( 404 )   PDF (1318KB) ( 590 )   Save Private placement is the main way for listed companies to carry out equity refinancing after the equity split reform in China. However, empirical studies that directly to measure stock sentiment and analyze how it affects the private placement behavior of listed companies are scarce. The listed companies are selected that successfully implemented the private placement of project financing between Shanghai and Shenzhen from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2018 as the research sample. Adopting the “overnight return method” in China for the first time to measure individual stock sentiment, and using Probit and OLS regression model to systematically investigate its impact on the process of private placement, it is aiming to reveal the micro-action mechanism of individual stock sentiment in the corporate financing process and the resulting economic consequences. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle and Its Estimation Model LU Jing, ZHANG Yin-ying 2022, 30 (9):  36-48.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2174 Abstract ( 383 )   PDF (1076KB) ( 593 )   Save Traditional asset pricing theory holds that stock returns are mainly related to system risks and non-system risks can be offset by diversification investment. In recent years, some scholars have found that there is a negative correlation between non-systematic risks and expected returns in the stock market, which is contrary to the classical risk pricing theory, thus triggering a discussion on Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle. Different scholars have conducted more empirical tests based on different capital markets, data intervals, control variables, and idiosyncratic volatility estimation methods to explore whether the “Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle” is widespread in capital markets. However, conclusions are not consistent, and there are three controversies: positive correlation, negative correlation, and irrelevant. Through literature analysis, it is believed that different idiosyncratic risk pricing anomalies come from different idiosyncratic risk measurement models, and based on this, research is conducted. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Improved Exponential Gradient Portfolio Strategy Based on Online Algorithm ZHANG Yong, LONG Wan-rong, YANG Xing-yu, ZHANG Wei-guo 2022, 30 (9):  49-60.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1857 Abstract ( 351 )   PDF (1316KB) ( 767 )   Save The weak aggregating algorithm is an online learning algorithm that dynamically weights the average of expert advice. In recent years, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been used to study online portfolio. An important feature of online portfolio strategy is that it does not make any statistical assumptions about stock prices, constructs an investment strategy based on historical data, and ensures that its cumulative gains are almost as good as benchmark strategy. Under the perspective of online sequence decision of weak aggregating algorithm, an improved exponential gradient portfolio strategy is designed, which is made up for the defeat that exponential gradient online portfolio strategy can not be combined with transaction costs. Firstly, according to the update method of exponential gradient online portfolio strategy, the expert advice pool representing the investment strategy is constructed, and on this basis, the weak aggregating algorithm is used to obtain the improved exponential gradient online portfolio strategy, which has proved to be competitive. Secondly, transaction costs are introduced into the improved exponential gradient online portfolio strategy, and the improved exponential gradient online portfolio strategy with transaction costs is further proposed. Significantly, it is theoretically proved that there is an asymptotical lower bound on the difference between the average of cumulative gain of the strategy and the best expert advice, so as to improve the practicability of exponential gradient online portfolio strategy effectively. Finally, an empirical analysis on historical stock data is utilized to test the performance of improved exponential gradient strategy. On these data, anexperimentisprovided to illustrate the feasibility as well as effectiveness of the strategy. Whether or not transaction costs are taken into account, the improved exponential gradient portfolio strategy performswell and achieves competitive performance in practical applications. Moreover, the empirical results showthatthe proposedstrategynotonlyperforms well in terms of returnbut also strikes a good balance betweenreturn and risk. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Country Risk Assessment for Overseas Investment Considering Risk Interdependence and Decision Makers’ Preference MENG Hua-qiang, SUO Wei-lan 2022, 30 (9):  61-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1735 Abstract ( 350 )   PDF (1730KB) ( 675 )   Save Country risk is an important external factor that Chinese companies prioritize for overseas investment. The multi-dimensional composition nature of country risk, the objective existence of risk interdependencies from different dimensions, and the differentiated preferences of company decision-makers, have increased the difficulty of country risk assessment for overseas investment. In this paper, risk interdependence and decision-makers’ preference are introduced, and a country risk assessment method for overseas investment which combines two tuple DEMATEL method, Gini coefficient objective weighting method and VIKOR method are proposed to quantify risk interdependence, determine the weight of risk assessment index from the perspective of subjective and objective integration, and obtain the country ranking of investment risks under different decision-making mechanisms. Subsequently, an empirical study based on the collected data from 63 countries along the Belt and Road is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the assessment results are further analyzed. The research results can provide necessary decision support for location selection of oversea investment, and help Chinese enterprises to prevent overseas investment risk and promote the development of the Belt and Road. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Can Pilot Free Trade Areas’ Setup Rectify a Capital Misallocation in China with Moderating Effects of Industrial Agglomeration? WANG Ya-fei, LIAO Meng, TAO Wen-qing 2022, 30 (9):  71-81.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0203 Abstract ( 258 )   PDF (1380KB) ( 533 )   Save The Free Trade Zone (FTZ) is a strategic platform and comprehensive experimental zone for China to further promote opening up since the implementation of reform and opening up in 1978. The Free Trade Zone emphasizes high-quality economic development driven by industrial transformation and upgrading. Improving the efficiency of capital allocation is not only an important path for high-quality economic development, but also a precondition that cannot be ignored. However, over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, while China has achieved sustained and rapid economic growth, it has also been accompanied by more serious capital mismatches. Correcting capital misallocation and improving the efficiency of capital allocation are the potential for maintaining medium-to-high-speed growth after China's economy enters the new normal. As far as the cause of capital mismatch is concerned, existing studies generally attribute it to excessive government intervention and low level of factor marketization. Since institutional distortions caused by excessive government intervention are an important cause of capital misallocation and loss of capital allocation efficiency, China’s Free Trade Zone reform experiment initiated in 2013 involves market-oriented reform and institutional innovation in government functions, legal system, finance, trade and investment, which will help to give play to the decisive role of market mechanisms in the allocation of factors, thereby enhancing the market liquidity of capital and other production factors, promoting the improvement of capital allocation efficiency and high-quality economic development. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research of Incentive Mechanism for 3PL Based on Fairness Preference in Inventory Pledge Loan WANG Lu, LIN Kai, CHEN Li-hua 2022, 30 (9):  82-93.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1417 Abstract ( 319 )   PDF (1932KB) ( 537 )   Save Inventory pledge loan is an important financing method in supply chain finance. To solve the problem of operational funds shortage, firms approach the bank for a loan by pledging their products, semi-finished products and raw materials. In this process, third party logistics (3PL) plays an important role. Specifically, 3PLs are responsible for the supervision of pledges, and it’s obvious that the ability and effort level of 3PL will affect the supervision quality, which is very critical for determining whether the business can be carried out smoothly. However, information asymmetry always exists between the bank and 3PL, and those two elements are often private information of 3PL, which cannot be mastered by the bank in advance. On the other hand, many scholars have pointed out that the hypothesis of rational economic man is not entirely tenable, and supply chain members often pay great attention to fairness in reality. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Estimation of Portfolio Efficiency Using a Chance-constrained Stochastic Index-DEA Approach XIAO He-lu, WANG Shan-ping 2022, 30 (9):  94-104.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1005 Abstract ( 234 )   PDF (969KB) ( 607 )   Save Traditional DEA and diversification DEA are two common nonparametric evaluation approaches, which are widely used in the estimation of portfolio efficiency. However, the existing studies have generally regarded the risk and expected return as the input and output indicators of portfolios, which is obviously inconsistent with the actual investment process. Actually, the input should be the initial wealth of portfolio, while the output should be the terminal wealth. Under this input-output framework, this paper unitizes the initial wealth of portfolios, converts the terminal wealth into the form of return rate. Further, the stochastic production possibility set and the chance-constrained stochastic Index-DEA model are both constructed. When the return rates of portfolios follow a joint normal distribution, the stochastic Index-DEA model can be transformed into an equivalent deterministic DEA model. The convexity of the equivalent model is proved theoretically, and the corresponding algorithm is also provided in this paper. Finally, the chance-constrained Index-DEA model is applied to evaluate the efficiency of 30 growth open-ended funds in China, so as to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on the Impact of Government Carbon Tax and Subsidy Policies on Outsourced Remanufacturing XIA Xi-qiang, LI Biao 2022, 30 (9):  105-115.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0721 Abstract ( 370 )   PDF (2471KB) ( 708 )   Save The government adopts carbon tax policy and subsidy policy in order to promote the development of remanufacturing industry. Thus, in order to analyze the influence of two government policies on outsourcing remanufacturing, the two game models between an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and a remanufacturer are constructed based on the government carbon tax and government subsidy policies respectively. Based on the two game models, firstly, the impact of the two government policies on the optimal solution of manufacturing/remanufacturing is compared and analyzed; secondly, the impact of the two government policies on the environment is analyzed; finally, some management inspirations are givenbasing on the analysis and the actual situation. The main results are as follows: government subsidy policy could effectively promote waste product recycling, while when the government adopts carbon tax policy, it could only effectively promote waste product recycling when the unit carbon tax of new product is greater than a certain threshold. When the government adopts the subsidy policy, the OEM could obtain the government subsidy by reducing the unit outsourcing cost of remanufacturing products to increase their own profit. When the government adopts the carbon tax policy, the OEM transfer part of the carbon tax to consumers by increasing the unit retail price of new products. The government subsidy policy could increase the profit of OEM and the remanufacturer, and the government carbon tax policy could only increase the income of the OEM when the unit carbon tax quota of new product exceeds a certain threshold. Compared with the unit environmental impact of new product, when the unit environmental impact of remanufactured product is greater than a certain threshold value, the government adopts subsidy policy to have the greatest impact on the environment, while the government adopts carbon tax policy to have the least impact. When the government adopts the carbon tax policy, it could effectively promote the remanufacturing production and improve the initiative of remanufacturers. However, the carbon tax levied on new products is not as small as possible, but should be larger than a certain threshold. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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IPO Issuer Rent-Seeking Motivation, Pricing Efficacy and MarketScreening—— From the Perspective of Pre-IPO Audit HU Dan, LIANG liang 2022, 30 (9):  116-127.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0686 Abstract ( 293 )   PDF (1523KB) ( 409 )   Save The existence of Issuance Examination Commission (IEC) and Approval System in Chinese new issue market induce one unique problem-issuer rent-seekingtoward IEC. To be specific, it includes two types: the qualification rent-seeking, which aims at successful listing; and the pricing rent-seeking, which aims at high pricing efficiency. Prior studies mainly focused on qualification rent-seeking topic, and drawn consistent conclusion that this type of rent-seeking adopted external auditor as one of its main paths, and largely would succeed. In the meantime, pricing rent-seeking topic had never received the due attention. Combined with our market practical problem of unreasonably high underpricing, we believe this research would fill some gap. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Profit Game and Equilibrium Pricing CHEN Jin-xiao, CHEN Jian 2022, 30 (9):  128-139.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0165 Abstract ( 571 )   PDF (1135KB) ( 765 )   Save A supply chain involves multiple enterprises. It is often complicated to deal with the relationship between the benefits of member enterprises and the overall benefit of the supply chain. There are even conflicts of interest between the upstream and downstream, resulting in the decline of the overall benefit. Only by optimizing the overall benefit and designing an effective profit distribution mechanism to achieve the coordination of member enterprises, can the supply chain achieve the optimality. The nonparametric method for efficiency evaluation has been widely used in this field. However, the simple optimization of efficiency does not consider the substitutability and reallocation of resources, and ignores the optimization space released by the adjustment of input and output structures. For efficiency decomposition, the compromise or unilateral optimal solution is not in line with enterprises’ goal of maximizing their own interests. Based on the nonparametric modeling method, a general analysis framework is established for the profit optimization of a two-echelon supply chain, considering the impacts of both technical advancement and resource substitutability. How the cooperative game can promote the supply chain to realize the optimality under the centralized case is discussed. The distribution of the optimized overall profit of the supply chain is studied via a profit game of member enterprises. The game relations between member enterprises are established based on their individual profit baselines. It is identified that there may be multiple equilibrium schemes for profit distribution. To obtain an optimal profit combination of member enterprises, a bargaining model is proposed. The pricing of intermediate products to achieve the optimal equilibrium distribution scheme is given. An illustrative example is provided to examine the above analysis on supply chain profits. The profits of the ten supply chains involved as a result of technical efficiency improvement and resource reallocation are compared with their current profit levels. Also, the profit distribution results without bargaining are compared to that with bargaining. It is shown that the proposed model is effective to realize the profit optimization of supply chains and the equilibrium profit distribution to member enterprises with the appropriate pricing of intermediate products. A modeling framework is thus provided for a preliminary quantitative analysis on the improvement of supply chain profits through cooperative games. The proposed model for a two-echelon structure can be extended to multi-echelon or even network structures. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Vertical Integration Strategy for Logistics Service Supply Chain Considering Quality Cost GUO Ying, LIU Zhi-xue, QIN Xue-lian 2022, 30 (9):  140-151.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0757 Abstract ( 457 )   PDF (1900KB) ( 903 )   Save With the rapid development of service industry, logistics management, as the third profits source, has increasingly become one of the crucial ways for enterprises to gain competitiveness. To further enhance the level of logistics service quality, reduce the logistics service quality cost and improve the performance of supply chain, the logistics service supply chain has emerged with a new trend of vertical integration. For instance, Cainiao, as a data-driven socialized collaborative platform, has integrated with many logistics service providers (e.g., Best Express and YTO Express) by investing in express logistics, logistics technology, trunk transportation, warehouse facilities, cross-border logistics and so on, resulting in the establishment of a “logistics kingdom”. However, vertical integration, which always involves multiple interest topics, will lead to conflicts in resources and interests and also tend to be affected by market environment. Therefore, it is necessary to study the existence conditions of vertical integration strategy and examine its impacts on the operation efficiency of the logistics service supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Comparative Study on Probabilistic Selling Strategy of Supply Chain under Different Power Structures SHU Si-liang, LIU Jian 2022, 30 (9):  152-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1133 Abstract ( 298 )   PDF (1961KB) ( 565 )   Save With the aggravation of market competition, it is particularly important that a right sales strategy is chosen for any enterprise, if it wants to enter, occupy, consolidate and expand the market. As a relatively new sales strategy, probabilistic selling has been accepted and recognized by more and more people. Probabilistic selling is that sellers combine their existing products or services into probabilistic product, and take it as an additional purchase option for potential buyers. It is widely used in aviation, tourism and retail industries. For example, some clothes or shoes have been combined into probabilistic products to sell at a low price by some well-known retailers(such as Amazon), and consumers only get information about color, style, design, pattern and so on until they get the products. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Multi-stage Joint Optimization and Coordination of R & D and Maintenance in Smart Connected Product Service Supply Chain SU Ju-ning, YANG Ze-jun, WANG Yi-ting, HOU Lin-na 2022, 30 (9):  162-171.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0604 Abstract ( 390 )   PDF (2474KB) ( 617 )   Save Under the background of intellectualization and servitization, smart product service system has become an important direction of transformation and upgrading of manufacturing enterprises. The “smart” and “connected” characteristics of products not only have an impact on product development, but also on maintenance services. Considering the pre-sale and after-sale two stage operations, how to jointly optimize product R&D and maintenance services is a new problem faced by smart product service system. Facing the new changes of products and services in smart product service system, how to cooperate between the manufacturer and the distributor in supply chain is a new problem to be studied in smart connected product service supply chain. Considering the influence of “smart” and “connected” characteristics of products on the demand and cost of products and services, a two-stage dynamic game model of supply chain is constructed. The optimal operation behavior of supply chain under decentralized decision-making and centralized decision-making is described. By comparing the optimal profits of the manufacturer, the distributor and supply chains in smart connected product service supply chain and smart connected product supply chain, the influence of smart service on supply chain is analyzed. By comparing the decision-making results of product service supply chain under smart-connected environment and non-smart-connected environment, the influence of the “smart” and “connected” of product on product service supply chain is analyzed. Based on product revenue and service revenue, a supply chain coordination contract of “dual revenue sharing” is proposed. With the goal of centralized decision-making, the conditions for realizing supply chain coordination under the “dual revenue sharing” contract are obtained. Finally, the numerical examples are simulated. The results show that the integration of services in smart connected product supply chain can’t always increase the profit of supply chain, which manifests the existence of “service paradox”. After the product is smart and connected, the smart and connected feature strengthens the integration of products and services, and greatly improves the profits of all parties in the supply chain. Dual revenue sharing contract can’t only realize Pareto improvement in supply chain, but also improve consumer surplus. The research has scientific guiding significance for people to understand the new changes of product and service integration under the “smart” and “connected” environment, and has important reference for further studying the operation behavior and cooperation mechanism of smart and connected product service supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Joint Pricing and Lead-time Decisions of Dual-channel Retailers MENG Ming-you, DENG Shi-ming, XU He 2022, 30 (9):  172-183.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0219 Abstract ( 301 )   PDF (2347KB) ( 534 )   Save A dual-channel retailer’s joint pricing and lead-time decisions are studied in this paper. The dual-channel service can be described as the near-end service mode, the mid-end service mode or the far-end service mode according to the retailer's online service scope. The retailer’s optimal pricing and lead-time decisions in each mode is analyzed and profits of these modes are compared. The results show that if the delivery speed of the retailer is low, he should choose the near-end service mode. If the retailer's delivery speed is high, the decision is made between the mid-end service mode and the far-end service mode. Moreover, the optimal lead-time is reduced with the unit delivery cost or delivery speed. This is because the retailer’s service scope is reduced with the increase of delivery cost, and a fast delivery speed will also lead to the reduction of lead-time. However, the trends of price decisions with the unit delivery cost or delivery speed are quite different in these two modes. The price is non-increasing in the mid-end service mode, while the price is non-decreasing in the far-end service mode. This is because in the mid-end service mode, the retailer prefers to offer a lower price to attract more offline demand, while in the far-end service mode, the price is raised to ensure a higher marginal revenue. This research acts as an effective scientific reference and helps provide a theoretical guidance for retail enterprises. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Dynamic Distribution Vehicle Route Optimization under the Influence of Carbon Emission ZHANG Jin-liang, LI Chao 2022, 30 (9):  184-194.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0816 Abstract ( 410 )   PDF (1581KB) ( 739 )   Save With the development of e-commerce, customer demand has gradually become a dynamic demand of uncertainty. This makes the static initial distribution scheme more and more difficult to adapt to the time-varying traffic and the dynamic change of demand. At the same time, with the increasingly serious environmental pollution, the government and enterprises began to control and reduce the carbon emissions in the process of vehicle transportation. Therefore, considering the dynamic vehicle routing problem of carbon emissions has gradually become the focus of research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Research on Retail Logistics Distribution Routing Optimization Considering Order Release Dates in Epidemic Outbreak Environment LI Wen-li, LI Kun-peng, TIAN Qian-nan, LI Xue-song 2022, 30 (9):  195-205.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0840 Abstract ( 350 )   PDF (2094KB) ( 366 )   Save The epidemic outbreak of“COVID 19” seriously endangers people’s life security, while logistics security plays an important supporting role in epidemic prevention and control, protecting people’s lives and stabilizing society.Based on the background of retail logistics distribution to ensure people's livelihood, the vehicle routing problem considering order release dates is studied, and a linear programming model with the goal of minimizing the weighted sum of delivery completion time and transportation costis constructedand an improved iterative local search solution algorithm is designed.In this algorithm, the local search process based on a variety of neighborhood structures and the improved US algorithm is adopted to enhance the optimization ability of the algorithm, and the large path and the optimal split procedure to obtain high-quality initial solution and the breaking mechanism to enhance the search efficiency of the algorithm are introduced.At the same time, some properties for Lagrange relaxation algorithm are proposed to provide a high quality lower bound for the problem in this paper.Finally, the effectiveness of the model and algorithm by solving the benchmark and the numerical instances are verified in the paper, and sensitivity analysis on the order release dates and model parameters are carried out. The results show that the model and algorithm in this paper can provide effective decision support for the efficiency improvement and cost control of retail logistics distribution.In this research, not only a theoretical basis for enterprises to make efficient decision plans in different periods of operation requirements is provided, but also some enlightening significance to the similar problems with the requirement of time and transportation cost balance in practice is provided. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Robust Optimization for Railway Emergency Location-Routing Based on Non-probabilistic Reliability TANG Zhao-ping, QIN Jin, SUN Jian-ping 2022, 30 (9):  206-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0175 Abstract ( 281 )   PDF (2135KB) ( 296 )   Save In view of that it is difficult to reasonably estimate the probability distribution of parameters or determine the membership function in the study of location selection of railway emergency facilities, combining the site-path problem with the interval non-probabilistic reliability method, and based on the complex network theory, a method to determine the interval weight of network nodes is proposed. Considering the confluence of interval uncertainties in node weight, edge weight and path weight, a weighted network of railway emergency facility location nodes is constructed. Based on the interval non-probabilistic reliability theory and interval operation rules, the path non-probabilistic reliability measurement and optimal time reliability path selection method are proposed, and a robust optimization model for railway emergency location-routing based on non-probabilistic reliability was established, in which node weights, edge weights and path weights were all interval numbers. As well as the solution algorithm is given. Furthermore, the optimal scheme of robust location of railway emergency facilities based on interval model is determined. Numerical examples show that the optimization scheme in this paper can better ensure the time robustness of rescue, effectively avoid the long-term risk of uncertain factors fluctuations on facility location, and have good practical application value. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search Metaheuristic for Robust Multi-project Scheduling HU Xue-jun, ZHAO Yan, SHAN Mi-yuan, WANG Jian-jiang, BIE Li 2022, 30 (9):  217-231.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1096 Abstract ( 343 )   PDF (3419KB) ( 304 )   Save In multi-project management, it is critical to allocate limited resources among different projects and within each project, because it affects the resource utilization and the implementation of project plans. According to the execution environment of multiple projects or the characteristics of resources, there are two approaches to the management of renewable resources: resource sharing and resource dedication. The resource sharing policy has been studied a lot, but the research on the resource dedication problem is very limited. In this paper, a novel resource dedication-transferring policy for managing resources is proposed, in which renewable resources are dedicated to each individual project during execution but can be transferred to another one starting after the finish of the corresponding project. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Firm’s Production Decision under Stochastic Emission Permits Price Based on CVaR Criterion JIN Shuai, WU Su-min, JIANG Si-qi 2022, 30 (9):  232-244.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0064 Abstract ( 221 )   PDF (2816KB) ( 154 )   Save Facing the objective situation that the price of emission permits is uncertain, the firm’s random profit function under a stochastic emission permits price is firstly developed, by extracting the correlations between emission permits price and rational firm’s optimal decision-making behavior, including product output, emission reduction and permits trading. Based on the criterion of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), the analytic expression of value-at-risk (VaR) of firm’s random profit at any given confidence level is derived directly, and the CVaR model with different firm’s expected price of emission permits and confidence level is established consequently. With the goal of maximizing the CVaR of firm’s random profit, the optimal decision and its characteristics are demonstrated under the given condition level. Additionally, the influences of external scenario factors on the optimal decision and optimization result are emphatically analyzed. The results show that, the measure formula of CVaR of random profit varies between the circumstances of firm selling emission permits and purchasing emission permits duo to the difference of the emission permits price range where the profit downside risk exists under each circumstance. The optimal decision considering decision risk based on CVaR criterion would be influenced by the confidence level of decision-maker, initial quota of emission permits, the mean and standard deviation of the emission permits price, hence would systematically deviate from the risk neutral optimal decision and behave with the characteristics of risk aversion. Finally, the conclusion is verified comprehensively through numerical examples, which further indicate that the model proposed can better characterize and reflect the risk and actual behavior of firms under emission trading regulation with stochastic emission permits price. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Monopolist on the Strategy of Fake Quality Information Considering the Costs of Extra Marketing and Punishment ZHOU Xiong-wei, CAI Dan, SHAO Zhi-long, MA Ben-jiang 2022, 30 (9):  245-254.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0486 Abstract ( 247 )   PDF (1119KB) ( 178 )   Save Consumers always use a product’s price as a signal of the product's quality. Due to the difference in consumers' perception of product quality, there is an information gap between enterprises and consumers, which provides space for enterprises to use fake quality information. When the product quality information owned by enterprises and consumers is asymmetric, the issue of monopolistic enterprises using fake quality information is studied. By constructing the consumer utility model of differentiated products and the profit model of enterprises under different quality information strategies, the motivation of enterprises using fake quality information is discussed. The extra marketing effort cost and the punishment cost using fake quality information are introduced to see how the different costs will influence the fake quality information strategy of the enterprise. The results show that whether the enterprise uses fake quality information not only depends on the extra marketing cost but also the punishment cost. What’s more, the enterprise prefer to use fake quality information just for high or low quality product rather than for both quality products simultaneously. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Recycling and Remanufacturing of E-products with Two Periods under Government’s Take-Back Regulation XU Jie, LUO Chun-lin, TIAN Xin 2022, 30 (9):  255-262.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0005 Abstract ( 270 )   PDF (1330KB) ( 208 )   Save The amount of waste electronic product has been growing in recent years. Topic on environmental issue has received huge attention, and the take-back regulation has been enacted in different regions and countries around the world. In this paper, the operations decision of an electronic manufacturer in the presence of recycling and remanufacturing products under the government’s take-back regulation is considered. At the beginning of the first period, the manufacturer decides the price of the new product. At the end of the first period, used products are collected and remanufactured by the manufacturer under the government’s take-back regulation. Then in the second period, the manufacturer decides the prices of the new product and the remanufactured product. An economic model is formulated aiming to maximize the manufacturer’s profit which is subject to the quantity constraint, i.e., the remanufactured product quantity is less than the maximum collection that can be attained by the manufacturer. In addition, the maximal collection rate is considered to be endogenous. The manufacturer’s optimal decisions can be obtained by backward induction. Our results show that (1) there are five operational remanufacturing strategies for the manufacturer, contingent on the combination of reverse operational cost (sum of collecting cost and remanufacturing cost) and new product manufacturing cost. (2) When the reverse operationalcost is lower than a certain threshold, the take-back regulation will not hurt the manufacturer. Otherwise, the regulation will decrease the manufacturer’s profit, because the high reverse operational cost discourages the manufacturer’s incentive of recycling. Finally, we take iPhone 8 as an example to conductan empirical study. Data in our model is obtained in the following way. The used product collection cost can be found from Apple’s official website, and other dataabout parameters can be obtainedfrom existing literatures.Numerical study shows that our model is robust. In summary, these findings can contributeto the stream of product remanufacturing and help the decision makers to recycle and remanufacture electronic products. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Enterprises Green Technology Innovation Decisions-Under the Perceptive of Consumer Environmental Awareness and Government Subsidies YANG Xiao-hui, YOU Da-ming 2022, 30 (9):  263-274.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0311 Abstract ( 468 )   PDF (1845KB) ( 510 )   Save Abstract: In the context of green economy, more and more enterprises choose green technology innovation to gain competitive advantage in the market. Current research shows that under the perspective of green technology innovation, consumer awareness of environmental protection and government subsidies can be treated as two key factors for market and government drive for green technology innovation, and both of these factors havesignificantly impact on enterprises’green technology innovation decisions. The driving factors and action timing of enterprises’ green technology innovation are analyzed based on consumer environmental awareness and government green subsidies. Based on consumer demand theory, the duopoly competition model and the Stark-berg model including green products and ordinary products are conducted under different government subsidies. It is shown that consumers’ awareness of environmental protection can significantly improvethe market share of green products and corporate profits, while increasing of unit cost will reduce the market share and corporate profits of green products. It is found that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the unit cost of green products and the profits of ordinary product enterprises. This research indicated that government subsidies for green products can promote enterprises’ green technology innovation. In this essay, it is also found that either subsidize consumers or enterprises generate same effect on the market share and total social welfare of products,however while considering the implementation cost of subsidies, it is better to subsidize consumers. It is pointed out that green product manufacturers have the highest market share of green products and the highest overall social welfare when they were followers in the market. Therefore, the backwardness strategy is the better competitive strategy for enterprises’ green technology innovation. This research can provide useful suggestions for the government to formulate green subsidy policies and enterprises to formulate green technology innovation strategies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Non-linear Time Series Prediction Model Based on EMD and DVG and Its Application LI Xia, LI Shou-wei 2022, 30 (9):  275-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0899 Abstract ( 350 )   PDF (2807KB) ( 450 )   Save Nonlinear time series are often superimposed and coupled with multiple forms of changes such as trend changes, seasonal changes, cyclic fluctuations and random changes, which are manifested as cyclic changes of variable length and amplitude. For the time series with nonlinearity and instability, a dynamic prediction model combining empirical modal decomposition (EMD) and directed visible graph (DVG) network is proposed. First, the original time series is decomposed into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) by empirical modal decomposition, and then the decomposed high-frequency and low-frequency IMFs are used to obtain their respective periods by fast Fourier transform; based on each period, subsequences of varying lengths are intercepted from the tail of the original time series, and then the directed visible graph algorithm is used to convert the original time series into multiple directed networks, using random wandering in each directed network to find A node similar to the last node of the time series; finally, the next value of the time series is predicted based on the parallel line method. The time series of crude oil price is a typical non-linear and unstable series, and this model is used to empirically analyze the daily price of WTI crude oil time series. The research results show that this model can not only effectively predict the time series trend, but also has a high prediction accuracy. The prediction method proposed in this paper is based on the network method rather than the classical statistical method, which makes full use of the characteristics of the nodes themselves in the network and provides a new way of thinking for nonlinear time series prediction. References | Related Articles | Metrics