Table of Content

15 August 2023, Volume 31 Issue 8 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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An Adaptive Algorithm for Prediction of Risk and Its Application Jiang-tao WANG,Ya CAI,Cheng-li ZHENG 2023, 31 (8):  1-8.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0981 Abstract ( 411 )   HTML ( 43 )   PDF (638KB) ( 443 )   Save Timely and accurate forecasting of risks has always been a core issue in the finance. To this end， by making full use of transaction information and taking the discrete stochastic processes to characterize the evolution of risk， a state-space model has been established under the quantile analysis framework in this paper. In order to overcome the difficulty of parameter estimation and make the proposed model have practical value， a new algorithm is constructed in the framework of quantile by reconstructing the gain coefficient and corrected procedure as the way used in the traditional Kalman filter model. The main superiority of our algorithm is that the proposed algorithm could adaptively adjust the existed prediction of risk based on the updated observations and forecast the next value of risk by using the adjusted result so that the accumulation of prediction bias of continuous forecasting process will be reduced dramatically and the precision of risk prediction will be promoted obviously. This superiority has been verified theoretically and empirically. Our theoretical analysis illustrates that the corrected result derived from the corrected procedure keeps unbiased and owns smaller variance compared with the input value of risk. If the prediction is implemented on the basis of the corrected result， it will decline the accumulation of error emerged in the whole process of forecasting， which theoretically uncovers the radical cause of the superiority of our algorithm. Moreover， the empirical conclusion shows the proposed algorithm owns better performance in the application and can realize more accurate risk-prediction comparing with the existing method. Furthermore， the superiority of our algorithm is more obvious in extreme situations. The construction of new algorithm not only enriches the means of risk forecasting， but also provides technical reference for avoiding risks suitably， especially for extreme risks. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Impact of Investor Experience on Online Financing Project's Financial Performance: Mediating Role of Future Popularity and Reputation Wei WANG,Yong-yong ZHAO,Hong-wei WANG,Li-huan GUO 2023, 31 (8):  9-21.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1747 Abstract ( 296 )   HTML ( 15 )   PDF (745KB) ( 562 )   Save The early investor experience provides the subsequent investors with the judgment basis of project quality， and then determines the behavior mode of crowdfunding financiers and investors. In order to analyze the impact of early investor experience on the financing performance of online financing projects and the differences of participation strategies of financiers facing different experienced investors， a model with future popularity and project reputation as mediate variables is constructed. Thus， the following two key research questions are put forward： （1） How does the early investor experience affect the future popularity， reputation and financing performance of the crowdfunding projects？ Does future popularity and project reputation play a mediate role in this process？ （2） Can entrepreneurs only passively accept the impact of early investor experience？ Would some measures be taken to reduce or enhance this impact？ The impact of pre-investor's experience on the late-stage popularity， future reputation， financial performance and fundraising outcomes of the crowdfunding projects is analyzed based on the chronological order of investor investment， with empirical data. And the model Popularit{y}_{it}={\alpha }_{\mathrm{1}}+{\beta }_{\mathrm{1}a}Popularit{y}_{it-\mathrm{1}}+{\beta }_{\mathrm{1}b}Expertis{e}_{it-\mathrm{1}}+{\beta }_{\mathrm{1}c}Participatio{n}_{it-\mathrm{1}}\times Expertis{e}_{it-\mathrm{1}}+{\gamma }_{\mathrm{1}}PT{C}_{it}+{\delta }_{\mathrm{1}}P{C}_i+{\epsilon }_{it} is employed to estimate the influence of popularity， while Evaluatio{n}_i={\alpha }_{\mathrm{2}}+{\beta }_{\mathrm{2}a}Expertis{e}_{i\mathrm{1}}+{\beta }_{\mathrm{2}b}Participatio{n}_{i\mathrm{1}}\times Expertis{e}_{i\mathrm{1}}+{\gamma }_{\mathrm{2}}PT{C}_i+{\delta }_{\mathrm{2}}P{C}_i+{\epsilon }_i is adopted to measure the impact of reputation. Then， Logit(Statu{s}_i)={\alpha }_{\mathrm{3}}+{\beta }_{\mathrm{3}a}Expertis{e}_{i\mathrm{1}}+{\beta }_{\mathrm{3}b}Popularit{y}_{i\mathrm{1}}+{\gamma }_{\mathrm{3}}PT{C}_i+{\delta }_{\mathrm{3}}P{C}_i+{\epsilon }_i and Progres{s}_i={\alpha }_{\mathrm{4}}+{\beta }_{\mathrm{4}a}Expertis{e}_{i\mathrm{1}}+{\beta }_{\mathrm{4}b}Popularit{y}_{i\mathrm{1}}+{\gamma }_{\mathrm{4}}PT{C}_i+{\delta }_{\mathrm{4}}P{C}_i+{\epsilon }_i are built to estimate the financing performance， with success or failure （Pledge Result （1=success）） and financing progress （NumProgress） as dependent variable， respectively. The observation window contains 602，412 investors' real investment data from China with 896，407 investment behaviors on 6，420 crowdfunding projects， from 2009 to 2018. Data analysis methods are used to explore investors' investment behavior according to investment time. Data analytics， sentiment analysis， text mining and econometric models are employed to analyze the impact of investor experience on the online financing projects from time series model and panel data model. The text mining technology provides a technical approach for such discussion texts， online reviews and update texts， and this kind of discussion and update strategy is related to the experience of previous investors. The results show that the early investor experience has a positive impact on the financing performance of crowdfunding projects， and the future popularity and project reputation play a partial mediate role in the impact of the early investor experience on the financing performance of online financing projects. The results also indicate that experienced investors play a similar role as opinion leaders， guide follow-up investors， help to improve the popularity and reputation of the project in the future， and make the project achieve higher financing performance. Furthermore， in the financing process， the founder does not passively accept the investment， but can participate in the discussion or update the project in a proactive manner. That is， it is found that if the early investors have rich experience， less update and intervention will help the financing performance to improve； while if the early investors lack experience， the founders need to actively participate in the online discussion and text updates. In addition to the guiding role of previous investor experience in subsequent users， the experience of previous investors has an alternative effect on the social participation and updates. This study enriches the understanding of investor experience and rational cluster behavior， theoretically enriches the understanding of investor experience and improves the application of behavior science and decision science in the field of entrepreneurship； it also provides a participation strategy for entrepreneurs of online financing projects in practice. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Selection of Government R&D Subsidy Strategy under Leading Enterprise-driven Cluster Ai-hong LIAO,Yan-qiu LU,Li-jun PANG 2023, 31 (8):  22-31.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1880 Abstract ( 255 )   HTML ( 12 )   PDF (726KB) ( 521 )   Save Innovation input subsidy and innovation product subsidy are the two most typical R&D subsidies. The leading-driven cluster is taken as the research background， a two-stage game model involving leaders and followers in industrial clusters is constructed， and the influence of government R&D subsidy mode and subsidy object selection on enterprise R&D investment is analyzed. The results show that： （1）In the case of high technology spillover， the effect of innovation input subsidy is better than that of innovation product subsidy.In the case of low technology spillover， the effect of the two kinds of subsidies on enterprise R&D investment is basically the same. （2）If both leaders and followers are subsidized， it is only possible to increase the enthusiasm of followers for R&D investment. If subsidies are only given to leaders or only given to followers， most of the time， the R&D investment enthusiasm of subsidized enterprises will be improved， while the enthusiasm of R&D investment of non subsidized enterprises will be damaged. （3）The effect of R&D subsidies on high-tech spillover clusters is better than that on low-tech spillover clusters.This study theoretically extends the existing research on R&D subsidy policy， and provides a useful reference for the government to formulate R&D subsidy policies for industrial clusters. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Subsidy Based on Purchase Volume or Purchase Price? Xu-jin PU,De-ling LAI,De-long JIN 2023, 31 (8):  32-40.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2120 Abstract ( 379 )   HTML ( 25 )   PDF (767KB) ( 768 )   Save There are two typical subsidy policies adopted currently by government to encourage poverty alleviation through e-commerce——subsidy based on purchase volume and subsidy based on purchase price. An agricultural supply chain model composed of government， e-commerce and farmer is developed， a game model between three parties is established， with a risk-averse farmer and government subject to subsidy budget constraint. The mechanism where different subsidy policy affects three parties’ decision-making behaviors is analyzed， and finally the basis for the government under different subsidy budget constraint to choose a reasonable subsidy policy is put forward. It is found that （1） the e-commerce and the government have different preference for different subsidy policy； （2） the e-commerce always prefers the government to provide subsidy based on purchase volume. When the subsidy budget is relatively limited， the government prefers to choose the policy of subsidizing based on purchase price； when the subsidy budget is relatively sufficient， the government can choose either of the subsidy policies； （3） as farmer’s aversion to yield risk increases， the government will become more inclined to choose policy of subsidy based on purchase price. This shows that the government should pay attention to the difference in the degree of risk aversion of farmers when making subsidy policy. For example， young professional farmers are lower risk-averse， while old farmers whose scale are small are higher risk-averse. The study not only complement the literature on government subsidy for poverty alleviation through e-commerce but also provide decision-making reference for the government under different subsidy budget constraint to rationally choose subsidy policy to encourage poverty alleviation through e-commerce. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Green Supply Chain Based on Manufacturer's Overconfidence and Retailer's Corporate Social Responsibility Zhi-bing LIN,Jun-chao ZHANG 2023, 31 (8):  41-50.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2147 Abstract ( 357 )   HTML ( 31 )   PDF (559KB) ( 954 )   Save Considering the influence of manufacturer's overconfidence behavior and retailer's corporate social responsibility（CSR） behavior on channel member's return strategy， a Stackelberg game model dominated by manufacturer is constructed. Firstly， the retailer's full refund return policy is analyzed， and the equilibrium solution under decentralized decision and centralized decision is obtained by game theory， and the coordination of revenue sharing and cost sharing combination contract is verified. Then the model is extended to analyze the retailer's partial refund return policy and the manufacturer's return policy. Finally through comparative analysis and numerical analysis， the following conclusions are drawn： （1）the effect of overconfidence on supply chain depends on the coefficient of overconfidence on return rate. When the coefficient is small， the impact of this irrational behavior is positive， but when the coefficient is large， this behavior has a negative impact on the manufacturer's utility. （2）The retailer’s CSR is beneficial to the supply chain， and can alleviate the negative impact of overconfidence. （3）Compared with the retailer's full refund return policy， the retailer's partial refund return policy will damage consumer surplus， but it is beneficial to channel members. Whether the manufacturer provides a return policy depends on the size of the product residual value， when the product residual value is high， the manufacturer's return policy is optimal. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Income Distribution of PPP Project Refinancing Xiu-qin WANG,Yang LIU,Bing WANG 2023, 31 (8):  51-60.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2194 Abstract ( 250 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (593KB) ( 259 )   Save After the PPP project enters the operation period， the private sector can increase the return rate of the project through refinancing； however， if the return rate is too high， it will damage the public interest， affect the VFM of the project， and increase the risk of the public sector. Refinancing income should be reasonably distributed between public and private sectors， but existing research cannot answer how to distribute to achieve a public-private win-win situation and promote the sustainable development of PPP. From the perspective of public-private win-win， the factors of consumer surplus rate， industry benchmark rate of return and the proportion of remaining debts year after refinancing are considered， and constraints are established and a dynamic allocation model is constructed to determine the proportion of public and private refinancing income distribution.The research results show that the maximum value of the public sector refinancing income distribution ratio is negatively related to the industry benchmark rate of return， and its minimum value is positively related to the industry average consumer surplus rate； and the remaining proportion of annual debt after financing is positively correlated. A PPP expressway project case has been analyzed to demonstrated the validation of the model. The dynamic distribution model of refinancing income constructed in this paper can provide reference for the reasonable distribution of PPP project refinancing income between public and private， and promote the sustainable development of PPP. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Nonlinear Dynamics Assessment of Inflation Expectations, Inflation Surprise and Stock: ReturnsTheoretical Analysis and Empirical Research Yong MA,Xiao-jun LIU,Rong-cai HU 2023, 31 (8):  61-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2382 Abstract ( 246 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (609KB) ( 591 )   Save Since the COVID-19， the continued loose monetary policies of various countries in the world have strengthened inflation expectations. Since inflation is always one of the important factors for investors to make investment decisions， the upward pressure of inflation will bring about the instability of the stock market， resulting in the dual fluctuations of prices and financial markets. Price stability and financial stability are important objectives of dual-pillar regulation. It is of great importance to clarify the relationship between inflation expectations and stock returns for the accurate realization of the target of dual-pillar regulation policies and investors' better avoidance of inflation risks.In the framework of a single commodity economy， the nonlinear relationships between stock returns and inflation expectations and inflation surprise are discussed in this paper. Furthermore， based on the asymmetric long-term and short-term perspective， the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag （NARDL） model is applied to conduct empirical research.The empirical results show that the positive and negative changes of inflation expectation and inflation surprise have asymmetric effects on stock returns in the short and long term. The response of stock return to the negative change of inflation expectation or inflation surprise is greater， which indicates that the weakening of inflation expectation or inflation surprise has a more significant impact on stock return. The positive relationships between inflation expectation， inflation surprise and stock returns are mainly shown in the short term， and in the long term， inflation expectation and inflation surprise have a restraining effect on stock returns. It shows that stock investment can resist the inflation risk in the short term， but in the long term， stock investment is no longer an effective tool to resist the inflation risk. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis of Multiple Eldercare Model Based on Differentiated Needs of the Elderly Yi MEI,Ye HUA 2023, 31 (8):  71-79.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0830 Abstract ( 399 )   HTML ( 18 )   PDF (573KB) ( 922 )   Save Diversified eldercare models need to be developed to meet the needs of different elderly people， as dictated by the huge differences within China's elderly population. The current research related to elderly care models is not closely combined with elderly care needs and cannot provide clear theoretical guidance for the target group positioning and value orientation of elderly care models. Therefore， it is necessary to combine the theory of elderly care needs to study diversified elderly care models in order to provide clear target positioning and value orientation for the future service construction of elderly care models.Based on defining the concept of elderly care needs， grounded theory is applied to systematize the selection of multiple models for categorized seniors and a multiple eldercare model system that dovetails with the core needs of different groups of people is constructed. Community-home-based eldercare model can guarantee the basic needs of the non-high-value elderly. The family shortage of the empty nest non-high-value elderly can be made up for by the "Time bank" mutual aid eldercare model. The professional care needs of the high-value elderly in need of long-term care can be met by the medical-institutional based eldercare model. The individual needs of the self-care high-value elderly can be catered to by the tourism endowment model. Empirical analysis is conducted using data related to the 2016 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey （CLASS） to verify the rationality of the population classification indexes corresponding to this multiple eldercare model system.Three main contributions are made by this paper. Firstly， a five-element eldercare model system that dovetails with the core needs of various categories of elderly is proposed， which provides an important reference for the future value realization path of each model. Secondly， multi-dimensional indicators are used to classify the elderly and clarify the connotation of high， medium and low-level needs of elderly services for different categories of elderly people. Thirdly， the characteristics of the population to which different eldercare models apply are analyzed using a combination of qualitative and empirical research methods， enriching the research related to the eldercare model. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Relationship between Government Subsidy and SMEs Value Creation from Enterprise Life Cycle Perspective: Based on Rules Mining Using Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering and Rough Sets Wei-dong ZHU,Yu-fei TIAN,Fu-wei ZHANG,Xue HU,Xiao-ya DAI 2023, 31 (8):  80-89.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1397 Abstract ( 286 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (746KB) ( 592 )   Save The government supports the sustainable development of enterprises through various types of subsidies， and different types of subsidies help enterprises to solve specific development problems. How to give full play to the value-enhancement effect of subsidized resources is an important issue in government subsidy research. In this paper， government subsidies are divided into three types： innovation subsidy， enterprise development subsidy and social responsibility subsidy according to the purpose of funding in order to study the relationship between different types of government subsidies and the value creation efficiency of small-sized enterprises （SMEs） at different life cycle stages. The law mining model based on agglomerative hierarchical clustering （AHC） and rough sets is adopted. On the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of enterprise value creation， the influence mechanism of government subsidies on enterprise value creation is constructed. The discretization in the rough sets model is solved by using AHC algorithm. The law mining model of government subsidies， value creation influencing factors and value creation of SMEs at different development stages is constructed. The listed companies in the SMEs board from 2009 to 2018 are selected as the research sample. The data from China Stock Market & Accounting Research （CSMAR） Database and the government subsidy data mined and classified based on CSMAR are used. The empirical results show that there is a non-linear configuration structure relationship among high-efficiency enterprise value creation and different types of government subsidies and influencing factors. The efficient value creation of enterprises is jointly determined by the type of government subsidies， the life cycle of the enterprise， and the factors that affect value creation. The research on the relationship between government subsidies and enterprise value creation is pioneered using data mining method， and theoretical foundation and application experience is provided for exploring the nonlinear configuration structure relationship between them. The conclusion is useful for improving the efficiency of government subsidies. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Cost Control and Ratchet Effect: Sharing Saving Incentive Mechanism vs. Target Incentive Mechanism Jian-bo CUI,Zheng-ying LUO 2023, 31 (8):  90-99.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1570 Abstract ( 277 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (822KB) ( 541 )   Save In response to the impact of Novel coronavirus pneumonia， China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited is implementing Cost Engineering Project regarded as a life project concerning the future destiny of the group. China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited is trying its best to reduce the cost and expenses of shipbuilding. Our universtiy has a long history with the group and used to belong to it. Being separated， both sides still have closely strategic cooperation. Therefore， we are deeply involved in this project lasted for one year. During the course of cooperation， it seems that there was a serious asymmetry about shipbuilding cost information between group and shipyards.Headquarters of state-owned enterprise （principal） authorizes production unit （agent） to proceed cost control. It is reasonable to anticipate that the performance of cost control in previous period might become the reference of next budget cost. Agent with high ability is inclined to make low effort so as to conceal real efficiency， high cost followed in current period， which is ratchet effect.The impact of two kinds of incentive mechanism is examined and compared， i.e.， saving sharing of cost reduction （realized number of cost is lower than budget） and target sharing （share after completion of cost reduction target）， on the ratchet effect. In a principal-agent relationship with dynamic and adverse selection， the principal commits a long-term specific incentive mechanism （with fixed structure and variable parameters）， but doesn't commit intertemporal incentive scheme （with fixed structure and fixed parameters）. Then the ratchet effect occurs but varies with the different incentive mechanism. Game theory is employed to explore the analysis framework of principal-agent based on the theory of information asymmetry. This study shows target sharing incentive mechanism （TIM） could weaken ratchet effect efficiently compared with saving sharing incentive mechanism （SIM） in a perfect Bayesian equilibrium. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Preservation Strategies for Fresh Produce Considering Quality and Quantity Loss Control Lei WANG,Bin DAN 2023, 31 (8):  100-110.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1715 Abstract ( 287 )   HTML ( 21 )   PDF (707KB) ( 495 )   Save The fresh produce will show both quality and quantity losses over time as a result of the characteristics of perishable deterioration， and then affect the decision-making of the fresh enterprise. More and more scholars start to research the preservation decisions and other relevant decisions such as pricing， inventory control and supply chain coordination. However， most of them focused on preservation efforts or investment in preservation， and did not consider the choice of multiple preservation strategies. In real life， the same preservation cost may produce three different preservation strategies： significantly controlling the quality loss， significantly controlling the quantity loss and simultaneously controlling the double loss， which makes retailers have to choose preservation strategies.The main work in this paper includes the following four parts. First， the fresh produce inventory model considering quality and quantity loss and the retailer profit model under three preservation strategies are established. Second， the retailer's choice of preservation strategies and its optimal ordering and pricing decisions are analyzed contrastively. Third， the retailer's choice of preservation strategy affected by the impact of price and freshness sensitivity coefficient， wholesale price， preservation cost and preservation effect are analyzed. Finally， some conclusions are verified through strategies.The results show that， first， under the preservation strategy of simultaneously controlling the double loss of quality and quantity， the retailor should implement the decision of “high price and high order quantity” if the quality loss control effect is relatively better. On the contrary， the retailor should implement the decision of “low price and high order quantity” or “low price and low order quantity” according to the comprehensive influence of factors such as potential market demand， price and freshness sensitivity coefficient， and wholesale price. Second， the retailor should choose the preservation strategy that significantly controls the quality and adopt the decision of “high price and high order quantity” when the ratio of the sensitivity coefficient of market demand to price and freshness and the wholesale price are relatively low， the preservation strategy that simultaneously controlling the double loss and adopt the decision of “general price and medium order quantity” when the ratio of the sensitivity coefficient of market demand to price and freshness and the wholesale price are within a certain range， he preservation strategy that significantly controls the quantity and adopt the decision of “low price and low order quantity” when the ratio of the sensitivity coefficient of market demand to price and freshness and the wholesale price are relatively high. Third， despite paying the same preservation cost， the lower the preservation cost and the sensitivity coefficient of the preservation effect， the retailer will only choose the preservation strategy with a single loss control effect； on the contrary， the retailer is more likely to consider choosing the preservation strategy with a double loss control effect. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing Strategy Selection for On-demand Freight Service Platforms Yong-wu ZHOU,Xin-xin GUAN,Bin CAO,Xiao-gang LIN,Qiang LIN 2023, 31 (8):  111-121.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1798 Abstract ( 287 )   HTML ( 9 )   PDF (928KB) ( 594 )   Save In recent years， we have witnessed the tremendous growth of sharing economy. One of the most compelling examples of this economy is the on-demand freight services， such as HuoLaLa， GoGoVan， and Uber Freight， etc. Because providers can decide whether to join these platforms and offer services for customers， an appropriate pricing strategy is required to assure the number of providers to satisfy demands and thereby maximize profits. In real life， there are two common-seen pricing strategies adopted by on-demand freight service platforms： membership-based policy and transaction-based policy. This study aims to examine which pricing strategy should these platforms employ. To this end， an on-demand freight service platform whose objective is to maximize profit by determining customer prices is considered and two stylized models in the presence of network effect are built， which is the typical characteristic of on-demand freight service economy. the optimal prices， profits， consumer surplus， and labor welfare of the membership-based policy and transaction-based policy are characterized and compared. The main results suggest that （i） the optimal price of the membership-based policy is lower than that of the transaction-based policy. However， the optimal profit of the membership-based policy is higher than that of the transaction-based policy； （ii） compared with the transaction-based policy， customers become better-off but providers become worse-off if the platform adopts the membership-based policy. The results offer valuable implications for relevant practices. Specifically， through our analysis， on-demand freight service platforms should adopt different pricing strategies under different stages of development. For those platforms at the initial stage， they should adopt the transaction-based policy to improve labor welfare and thereby appeal to more providers to join the platforms， although the membership-based policy can help earn more profits. For those platforms at the developed stage， however， they should adopt the membership-based policy. This not only can help improve consumer surplus and thereby attract more customers but also increase the profits. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Research on the Influence of Industrial Policies on Production-decision of Automakers to the COVID-19 Shocking Jin-huan TANG,Fang YANG,Li-wen JIANG 2023, 31 (8):  122-131.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1794 Abstract ( 264 )   HTML ( 9 )   PDF (877KB) ( 547 )   Save The sudden COVID-19 has brought a huge impact to the auto industry， which has led to a cost premium of supply chain side on the upstream and a shrinking market of demand side on the downstream. So， the auto industry is facing a big challenge. Sensing this， the government， based on the original dual-credit policy， proposed some stimulus policies such as the suspension of the China VI emission standard， the continued subsidy for the purchase of new energy vehicles （NEVs）， and so on. In this context， the impact of the parallel implementation of dual-credit policy and subsidy policies on the production decision-making of two types of automakers is analyzed. First， a benchmark model A （before COVID-19） and a model B （after COVID） are formulated. To facilitate the research， the entire market has been taken as a whole， and an extended Hotelling model has been adopted. Then， static and dynamic analysis method is put forward to investigate two things： （i） the impact of the COVID-19 on the prices， demand， revenue， and market share of NEVs and fuel vehicles （FVs） automakers， （ii） the influence of policies and cost premium for the production and pricing strategies are derived. The results show that， the subsidy of government is more favorable to the development of NEVs than FVs to the COVID-19 shocking. Moreover， the dual-credit policy itself have a limited fundamental impact on the revenue of the two types of automakers， but it has a synergistic effect together with the subsidy policy. Besides， with the background of the COVID-19 shocking， NEVs have temporarily obtained a market advantage over fuel-powered vehicles， and this advantage decreases with the reduction of the COVID-19 and has a certain timeliness. This study provides important implications that can be utilized as strategic guidance for government and NEV/FV automakers， and it also meaningful for carbon peak and carbon neutral goal. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Equilibrium Optimization of the Supply Chain of Emergency Medical Supplies Based on Resilience and Social Welfare Ying SUN,Hui-ping LIU,Rui YAN,Qun ZHANG 2023, 31 (8):  132-141.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0555 Abstract ( 392 )   HTML ( 28 )   PDF (807KB) ( 636 )   Save Emergency medical supplies are important materials to guarantee people's life safety in emergencies. Frequent public emergencies increase the risk of the interruption of the supply chain of emergency medical supplies， seriously impacting people's work and life safety. The immediate reason of supply chain disruption is the explosion of downstream demand for emergency medical supplies caused by public emergencies， and the root cause is the cost-oriented supply chain design of the enterprises， i.e.， reduction in inventory and highly concentrated raw material procurement by only a few enterprises for cost reduction. Therefore， it is imperative to improve the resilience of the supply chain of emergency medical supplies， such as by increasing redundancy and multi-source procurement.In the context of infectious public health emergencies， this paper constructs a three-level supply chain of emergency medical supplies， consisting of suppliers， manufacturers and market demand. The SEIR dynamics model is used to forecast the demand for emergency medical supplies， and resilience is embedded in its supply chain through multi-source procurement and increased redundancy. Meanwhile， considering the impact of the supply chain on social welfare， environmental pollution， resource consumption， government subsidies and other factors are quantified to constitute the total cost of the supply chain. Via mathematical modeling， a dual-objective mixed-integer programming model is constructed to take into account of both resilience and cost. The model minimizes the total expected cost and maximizes the total satisfaction rate of demand， aiming at solving the network design of the supply chain of emergency medical materials supply chain. The dual-objective model is then converted to a single-objective model by the weighted-sum method， and the weight parameter is used to indicate the degree of emphasis on resilience and cost in decision-making. Finally， the validity of the model is verified via simulation， comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis.The results indicate that compared with the cost-oriented supply chain， the supply chain model presented in this paper increases the total demand satisfaction by 16.84% while the expected total cost only increases by 2.10%. It also shows stronger resilience under public health emergencies. Additionally， it is found that the manufacturers should keep the minimum logistics volume with the resilient-oriented auxiliary supplier when maintaining main logistics with the cost-oriented dominant supplier. Significant emergency medical supplies should be kept in the highest inventory to cope with demand fluctuations within a small and medium range. In addition， the supply chain still needs to pay the cost to set up a sufficient reserve capacity to tackle wide demand fluctuations. The model presented in this paper can effectively improve the resilience of the supply chain of emergency medical supplies with while taking cost into account and provide suggestions for the design of a resilient supply chain of emergency medical supplies. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Decision on Dual-channel Supply Chain Based on 3D Printing Technology Affecting Cost and Demand Meng TONG,Wei LI 2023, 31 (8):  142-150.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0062 Abstract ( 318 )   HTML ( 22 )   PDF (622KB) ( 741 )   Save With the increasing demand for 3D printing technology applications， the 3D printing technology vendor has become an independent decision-maker in the customized supply chain， and even become the leader of supply chain decision-making. On the one hand， the application of 3D printing technology can improve the customization level of products， thus increasing demand， and on the other hand， it can also reduce manufacturing costs， thus affecting the customization decisions of the dual-channel supply chain. For example， in 2018， BMW used HP ’s 3D printing device hp4200 to produce auto parts， ensuring that customers’ personalized requirements were met in a short time， and in 2014， BMW cooperated with the Faculty of Ergonomics of the Technical University of Munich to produce thumb orthosis using 3D printing technology to assist workers in production， which can improve production efficiency and reduce production costs. Based on the impact of manufacturers’ application of 3D printing technology on cost and demand， a dual-channel supply chain game model consisting of a technology vendor， a manufacturer， and a retailer is constructed to solve the optimal decision under the situation led by the manufacturer and the technology vendor respectively. The influence of the sensitivity coefficient of customization， the coefficient of cost saving and technical fee on supply chain decision-making and profit under different dominant situations is analyzed， and the optimal decision-making under two dominant situations are compared. First， when the impact of customization on demand and cost is different， the level of customization and pricing strategy are different under different dominant situations. Second， technology vendors always strive for supply chain dominance in order to maximize their profits. Third， there is a value interval of technical fee， when the technical fee is in different intervals， the technology vendor will choose partial customization strategy or fully customized strategy， but the threshold of the technical fee interval is different when the manufacturer and the technology vendor are respectively dominant. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Effects of Supplier's Store Brand on Manufacturer's Product Extension Strategy Ling ZHONG,Jia-jia NIE 2023, 31 (8):  151-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2037 Abstract ( 360 )   HTML ( 26 )   PDF (729KB) ( 1246 )   Save To better meet the rapidly changing demand of the consumers， manufacturers have been dedicated to introduce new products by extending their existed product line. However， extending product line inevitably requires more sources of critical components， which may have indirect effects on the upstream suppliers， especially when the supply of those critical components is highly concentrated thus the pricing power is controlled by suppliers. Moreover， besides supplying core components for the manufacturer， suppliers themselves may introduce their own store brands， which make the manufacturer facing the threats of substituted products competition in the demand market. At this point， whether to extend its product line when facing the supplier’s store brand threat may be an important issue for the manufacturer. Based on this point， by using game theory， under supplier’s two store brand strategies， i.e.， introduces store brand and forgoes introducing store brand， manufacturer’s two product line extension strategies models are build， solved and analyzed.In the rest of this paper， firstly， game theory is used to develop the manufacturer’s two product line extension strategies models under supplier’s two store brand strategies. Secondly， the equilibrium quantity and the optimal profits of both supplier and manufacturer are derived by the standard backward induction. Thirdly， the conditions for manufacture to extend product line under supplier’s two different store brand strategies are obtained. Finally， the impact of supplier’s two different store brand strategies on the manufacturer’s product line extension strategies is discussed.Through the above analysis， this study sheds light on the manufacturer’s product line extension strategies when facing the supplier’s store brand threat. Specifically， the supplier always introduces store brand when the marginal cost of critical components is low. Meanwhile， the introduction of store brand by the supplier may be detrimental to the extension of manufacturer’s product line. When the difference of quality level between the manufacturer’s new product and the supplier’s store brand is negligible， the introduction of supplier’s store brand makes the manufacturer unable to extend product line. When the difference of quality level between the manufacturer’s new product and the supplier’s store brand is remarkable， if the cost of core components is small， the manufacturer chooses to extend product line whether the supplier introduces store brand or not. Otherwise， the manufacturer foregoes to extend product line. What’s more， when facing the threats of supplier’s store brand threat， it is not always profitable for the manufacturer to extend product line. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Sourcing and Pricing Strategies under Supply Uncertainty with Different Payment Schemes Chong-ping CHEN,Xiao-po ZHUO,Jie CHEN 2023, 31 (8):  162-172.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1967 Abstract ( 296 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (613KB) ( 516 )   Save In recent years， many companies are evacuating from China because of the increasing production costs in developing countries. This study intends to explore the relationship between shifting tides and price competition. At the same time， it analyzes whether the conclusion that is “the dual-source procurement is the optimal procurement strategy when the prices of domestic and foreign suppliers are the same as the supply uncertainty’ derived in the Cournot quantity competition model is still valid in price competition. By assuming two suppliers have identical supply prices， the firms’ sourcing and pricing strategies with two different supply sources under supply and demand uncertainty have been investigated. Previous studies on procurement strategies were mostly on basis of quantity competition. However， price competition is much more pervasive in practice. Hence， sourcing and pricing strategies under price competition need to be further studied. By employing a price competition model， this study reveals firms’ sourcing （domestic sourcing and offshore sourcing） and pricing strategies under two contrastive payment schemes： payment based on order quantity and payment based on arrival quantity. The results show that： （1） Regardless of payment schemes， the optimal purchase source decision of a company under price competition is to use domestic sources. （2） when the procurement cost is related to the order quantity， the firm sets a higher market price， （3） the firm obtains an identical profit under the two payment schemes， and （4） under price competition， firm prefers domestic sources that can respond quickly to the market. This study employs numerical experiments to verify the conclusions of the research and proposes corresponding observations. This study will provide companies with managerial insights on purchasing source decision-making and pricing under price competition， and also provide decision support for suppliers to improve their supply response speed and obtain more orders. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Integrating Production Planning and Energy Controlling for the Manufacturing Plant with Alternative Power Supplier Wei-wei CUI,Xin-bo LIU 2023, 31 (8):  173-183.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1176 Abstract ( 257 )   HTML ( 10 )   PDF (882KB) ( 541 )   Save It is reported that most of the industrial energy consumption is attributed to the manufacturing process. The application of renewable energy resources in the manufacturing plant can contribute to alleviating the environmental pollution problems caused by the massive use of fossil fuels. It focuses on the micro-grid system including the manufacturing plant， renewable energy generation system and power storage system. Apart from the power generated by the renewable resources， additional power from the main electric grid is necessary in order to satisfy the power demand of manufacturing line at any time. A mixed integer linear programming model integrating production scheduling， maintenance planning and energy controlling is established to minimize the total power cost of manufacturing plant under the real-time electricity price. The power generated by the renewable resources can be discharged to the manufacturing plant or stored in the storage system who has a limited maximum storage level. The price per unit of power drawn from the main grid depends on the time period. And， the unit price during the peak hours is higher than that during the valley hours. Based on the classification of decision variables， a two-layer algorithm combining the genetic algorithm， heuristic rules and sub-problem exact algorithm is designed to solve the model. In the out layer， the variables related to the production and maintenances are searched in the meta-heuristic according to the evaluation results obtained from the inner layer. In the inner layer， the variables related to the energy are optimized using the minimum cost network flow algorithm. Compared with CPLEX， the effectiveness and the efficiency of designed GA are validated in the numerical experiments. Since CPLEX cannot get the optimal solutions for the large-sized problems， an effective algorithm based on relaxation method is designed to get the lower bound for the problem. The gap between the lower bound and the solution obtained by GA is smaller than 10%， which also validates the effectiveness of designed GA. Compared with the traditional independent decision-making policies， the total power cost can be reduced by 40 percent using our model. The optimal operational plan shows that production should be arranged to the period with low electricity price since production is a kind of activity consuming energy heavily. However， it is inevitable to process the jobs during the high-price hours considering the non-preemption of jobs and the constraint of production deadline. Therefore， the power generated by the renewable energy system should be proactively stored in the storage system and then discharged to the manufacturing plant during the corresponding period. Thus， the existence of renewable resources can help the company decrease the behavior of electricity purchasing during the high-price hours effectively， which will improve its competiveness in the fierce market. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Grazing Path Planning with Time Window under Grass Livestock Balance Constraints Xiao-yan GU,Liang CHEN,Qian LIU,Meng-di MU,Deng-sheng WU 2023, 31 (8):  184-192.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2199 Abstract ( 207 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (1014KB) ( 281 )   Save The natural characteristics of grassland resources determine the limited livestock carrying capacity of pasture， which is suitable for grazing only at specific time windows in a year and cannot bear long-term and continuous grazing. The unreasonable grazing path planning will not only lead to the mismatch between livestock feeding time and pasture growth cycle， but also lead to a series of negative problems such as overload， underload and degradation of pasture. In this paper， based on the consideration of grass-livestock balance， the grazing time penalty function is proposed， a linear time window and exponential time window grazing path planning model is constructed， and an improved genetic algorithm is designed to solve the model. Finally， the model is validated with an example of a herding household in Haiyan County， Qinghai Province. The results show that the algorithm with exponential time window can find the optimal solution faster. Furthermore， considering the three cost leads to lower total grazing path costs than focusing on a single cost. The improved genetic algorithm shortens the solution time and improves the stability of the solution. The path planning model with time windows constructed in this paper fully considers the natural attributes of pasture， optimizes the grazing path of herders， and improves the scientific use of pasture resources by herders. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Evolutionary Game Theoretic Approach to Analyze "Bilateral-Centralized" Power Market Bo XU,Li-lin ZUO,Jia-yi JIN,Xin-ming YUE,Zi-wei WANG 2023, 31 (8):  193-203.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2187 Abstract ( 327 )   HTML ( 12 )   PDF (870KB) ( 971 )   Save Encouraging power plants and large users to sign long-term stable bilateral contracts is one of the important measures of the power system reform in China. In order to explore its effectiveness， evolutionary game theory is adopted to model the power trading mechanism considering bilateral trading model， the power supply and demand model of power plants and large users is constructed， and the evolutionary process of market competition and equilibrium state of power plants is discussed. The model discusses four supply and demand scenarios according to the relationship between the rigid demand quantity of large users and the market equilibrium quantity， and uses the replicator dynamic theory to obtain the evolutionary stable state of the market. The results show that under different supply and demand scenarios， the introduction of bilateral transaction system may not necessarily improve the average profit of the market； under the determined market supply and demand， the reserved price of the power plant in the bilateral market will affect the overall profit level of the market. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Dynamic Evolution Game of Collaborative Innovation in University Science and Technology City Song-liang LI,Peng-fei CHENG 2023, 31 (8):  204-213.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1616 Abstract ( 205 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (768KB) ( 564 )   Save As a major part of the national innovation system， collaborative innovation plays an important role in promoting high-quality economic development and enhancing national and regional innovation capacity. In university science and technology city， there are many innovation subjects， such as universities， research institutes， enterprises， management committees and so on， it gathers international and domestic innovation elements， such as technology， talents， knowledge， capital， etc. As a new organizational model of collaborative innovation， university science and technology city has become a main base for the transformation of scientific research achievements and a sharing platform for the integration of government， enterprise， universities and research institutes， and it is of great significance for promoting the collaborative development of higher education， science and technology innovation and industry. However， the collaborative innovation of university science and technology city is faced with the lack of motivation of innovation subjects， the stagnation of innovation activities， etc. These problems may be caused by the inconsistency of the goals of innovation subjects， the lack of government guidance and supervision， the speculative behavior of innovation subjects， and so on. To solve them， the dynamic evolutionary game model is constructed in the paper. And the cooperation strategy of innovation subject is studied under the condition of supervision and non supervision of government. Matlab is used to simulate the evolution of the main factors affecting the game strategy of collaborative innovation subject. The results show that without supervision from the management committee and other government departments， the interest distribution and the initial state of strategy selection intention of universities and enterprises can effectively promote the convergence of evolutionary game system to the ideal state. When the supervision from management committee is implemented， the supervision measures include the reward and punishment have a significant influence on the strategy selection of cooperative innovation subjects， and which will accelerate the convergence of the evolution results to the ideal state. By the research results， the reference for the collaborative innovation of university science and technology city can be provided， and the theory of collaborative innovation is enriched. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Score-driven Multiplicative Component Tealized CARR Model and its Empirical Study Xin-yu WU,Hai-bin XIE,Chao-qun MA 2023, 31 (8):  214-225.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1893 Abstract ( 278 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (606KB) ( 537 )   Save Modelling and forecasting volatility is important for many financial applications， such as asset allocation， risk measurement and option pricing. It is well known that volatility is time-varying and highly persistent， and many models have been proposed to capture these stylized facts. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity （GARCH） model is among the most popular model. However， the model is return-based model that uses only daily closing prices to model and estimate volatility and fails to exploit the intraday information.An alternative approach for estimating volatility is to apply the daily price range， which is based on intraday high and low prices. The high-low price range has been proven to be a more efficient volatility estimator than the return-based one. The classical range volatility model， conditional autoregressive range （CARR） model， fails to exploits the intraday information in high-frequency data and belongs to the class of single component volatility models， which is incapable of capturing the dynamics of financial volatility adequately. An important feature of volatility is the high persistence （long memory property）. To account for this salient stylized fact of volatility， the additive component GARCH volatility models have been proposed in the earlier literature. In recent years， multiplicative component volatility models have received a great deal of attention in the financial econometrics literature. The models feature a multiplicative decomposition of volatility into a short-run and a long-run component. It is claimed that the multiplicative component models are more attractive than the additive component models， which are able to capture complex volatility dynamics such as the high persistence of volatility.By incorporating the realized measure， assuming a multiplicative component structure for the conditional range： the first component traces the long-run （secular） volatility trends， while the second component captures the short-run （transitory） movements in volatility， and adopting the score-driven approach to drive the dynamics of the two components， an extension of the CARR model is proposed， namely the score-driven multiplicative component realized CARR （SD-MCRCARR） model. The proposed SD-MCRCARR model that incorporates the realized measure （the intraday information of high-frequency data） as well as the multiplicative component volatility structure is able to quickly capture severe market fluctuation and to account for long-memory volatility. In addition， the model builds upon the score-driven framework which builds a dynamic update mechanism exploiting information contained in the score of the conditional distribution （predictive likelihood） of the observations. Also， an important advantage of the model is that the practical implementation of the model is simple since it is an observation-driven model and the likelihood function is available in closed form and therefore estimation can be easily performed by the maximum likelihood method.The empirical analysis using the high-frequency data of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index shows that the SD-MCRCARR model outperforms other benchmark models including the SD-CARR model， the SD-RCARR model and the SD-MCCARR model in the empirical fit. Further， the forecasting performance of the SD-MCRCARR model and the benchmark models are compared by using the robust loss functions and the model confidence set （MCS） test. The results show that the SD-MCRCARR model yields more accurate volatility forecasts than the benchmark models. Moreover， the superior forecast ability of the proposed SD-MCRCARR model is robust to alternative forecasting windows and forecasting horizons. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Forecast Horizon of Dynamic Lot Sizing Model Under Production Changeovers and Two-Way Demand Substitution Fu-ying JING,Yin-ping Mu,Xiang-rui CHAO 2023, 31 (8):  226-238.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0044 Abstract ( 226 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (962KB) ( 550 )   Save Demand （or product） substitution allows a customer who comes to purchase a specific product to accept or choose another available product when her original choice is unavailable or not offered. The notion of substitution has recently been recognized as an effective tool to improve the efficiency of multi-product inventory systems by taking advantage of the inherent flexibility. There are a large number of settings in which costs are incurred only when the product being produced is changed. Such a cost is referred to as the changeover cost. The flexibility associated with demand substitution can be used to address inefficiencies resulting from significant changeover costs.The dynamic lot sizing problem and forecast horizon under production changeovers and two-way demand substitution are analyzed. The optimal decisions of the production for a T-period problem are computed to minimize the production changeovers cost，variable production cost， substitution cost and holding cost. Based on the structural properties of the optimal solution， a forward dynamic programming algorithm is developed to solve the problem. By the marginal cost analysis method， the sufficient condition is given to establish the monotonicity of production points for two products， then the regeneration set is established for two products and the sufficient condition is given to obtain the forecast horizon. Finally， a computational experiment is used to compare the length of forecast horizon under one-way and two-way demand substitution. The length of forecast horizon under at most one changeover and multiple changeovers in a period are also compared. The length of forecast horizon will be lengthened under two-way demand substitution， and will be shortened under multiple changeovers in a period. In addition， the length of forecast horizon increases with changeover costs， and decreases with the parameters of growth and variability and substitution costs. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Incentive Mechanism of Network Public Opinion Guidance Based on Differential Game in the Omnimedia Era Yan-hui HOU,Min GUAN,Jia-kun WANG,Fan MENG,Hao ZHANG 2023, 31 (8):  239-252.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0977 Abstract ( 322 )   HTML ( 18 )   PDF (983KB) ( 755 )   Save With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology， the era of omnimedia has arrived. Network public opinion propagation has been endowed with new and unique characteristics， which also puts forward higher requirements for its guidance and governance. Therefore， it is of great significance to explore effective network public opinion guidance strategies and incentive mechanisms to build a healthy public opinion ecology.Considering the dynamic and sustainable propagation of network public opinion， combined with the actual propagation process and the research paradigm of differential game， five kinds of network public opinion propagation scenarios composed of regulator， media and netizens are constructed. By solving the equilibrium strategy of each subject， the propagation process and guiding effect of network public opinion under different incentive scenarios are theoretically analyzed. Combined with the simulation experiment， the influence of different guidance methods on the propagation and guidance effect of network public opinion is deeply analyzed， and then the key parameters in the guidance process of network public opinion are identified.The results show that the network public opinion guidance effect is the best under the dual incentive policy scenario， which can realize the Pareto optimization of the overall system income. And the network public opinion guidance effect is at the lowest level under the non-incentive policy scenario. It is worth noting that both explicit incentive and implicit incentive policies can effectively improve the guiding effect of network public opinions， but there are different intensity of influence：{\phi }_M（the cost subsidy coefficient provided by the regulator to the media）?\omega（implicit incentive coefficient）?{\phi }_N（the cost subsidy coefficient provided by the regulator to the netizens）. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Non-profit Organizational Brand Strategy for Poverty Alleviation Based on Market Entry ZHOU Yan-ju, , CHEN Hui-qin 2023, 31 (8):  253-260.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0962 Abstract ( 208 )   PDF (1269KB) ( 521 )   Save On a global scale, all countries are still facing huge development challenges brought about by poverty. In recent years, brand poverty alleviation, that is, helping agricultural products in poverty-stricken areas build brands to increase farmers’ income has become a poverty alleviation method with Chinese characteristics. Many non-profit organizations have participated and achieved good results. However, in reality, there is also a mismatch between brand building decisions and the actual production capacity of farmers, resulting in low poverty alleviation benefits. Based on this, a Stackelberg game model is constructed to explore the brand building strategies of NPOs under the conditions of different capacity of farmers. The results show that: (1) the brand poverty alleviation measures of non-profit organizations play a significant role in increasing farmers' income in poverty-stricken areas; (2) The decision-making of brand building level is related to the cost of brand building, the awareness of poverty alleviation of consumers and the capacity of farmers in poverty-stricken areas. As a potential entrant, the larger the capacity of poor households does not mean that the higher the poverty alleviation benefit of non-profit organizations is. Guiding farmers to maintain a slightly limited production capacity can reduce the intensity of price competition and improve the income of both; (3) when the products in poverty-stricken areas enter The market does not always improve consumer surplus when competing with local products in the market. Finally, combining with the research results, it provides management enlightenment and theoretical support for the poverty alleviation work of non-profit organizations. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Impact of Classified Recycling on the Recycling of Waste Products from The Perspective of Game Theory LI Biao, XIA Xi-qiang, ZHAO Qiang 2023, 31 (8):  261-268.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0261 Abstract ( 267 )   PDF (5401KB) ( 246 )   Save In the recycling of waste products, their sorting can effectively improve the processing efficiency of waste products. To analyse the impact of sorting on waste product recycling, a game model for waste product recycling is established based on four scenarios: no sorting, processors responsible for sorting, recyclers responsible for sorting, and centralised decision making. Based on the optimal solutions in the four scenarios, first, the boundary conditions under which processors and recyclers are willing to take responsibility for classified recycling are identified; second, the impact of classified recycling on the per-unit commission price, per-unit recycling price, recycling volume, and waste product revenue in the different scenarios is compared and analysed; finally, based on the revenue impact of decentralised and centralised decision making, a cost-benefit sharing contract is used to provide a coordination mechanism for decentralised decision making. It is found that within the limits where processors and recyclers are willing to sort, sorting can not only reduce the cost of recycling for processors, but also increase the revenue of both processors and recyclers; in the case of centralised decision making, segregated recycling can increase the total revenue of the recycling channel; in the case of decentralised decision making, the benefits of decentralised decision making can be achieved through a cost-benefit sharing contract to achieve the benefits of centralised decision making. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Communication Model and Intervention Strategy of COVID-19 Vaccination Consciousness Among Public ZHU Hong-miao, YAN Xin, QI Jia-yin, JIN Zhen 2023, 31 (8):  269-277.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0769 Abstract ( 307 )   PDF (6540KB) ( 119 )   Save COVID-19 is a global public health emergency that has not been encountered in a century. Since the development and evolution of this crisis presents remarkable unconventional features, it is the most effective way to prevent and control the epidemic to vaccinate the public against COVID-19. However, some people have a biased perception of the iatrogenic risk of COVID-19 vaccination, leading to hesitation or negative attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination, and they still refuse or delay vaccination when vaccine services are available. In addition, some people refuse to be vaccinated because of the cognitive bias of the COVID-19 vaccination due to social prejudice. Therefore, it is of great significance for epidemic prevention and control that how to promote the effective diffusion of vaccination consciousness among the public through the integration of multiple channels, create a favorable atmosphere for COVID-19 vaccination, and further enhance the COVID-19 vaccination consciousness. Consequently, the complex social system composed of the public and the communication through traditional media, social media and offline network to spread the COVID-19 vaccination consciousness is regarded as a multiplex network, and a transmission dynamic model of vaccination consciousness for the public with consideration of multiple channels is established based on the theory of multiplex networks in the study. The spread process of vaccination consciousness in public health emergencies is different from that of ordinary vaccination awareness. That is, the development and evolution of epidemics in public health emergencies show significant unconventional characteristics, which are mainly reflected in public health emergencies. The high-density and frequent COVID-19 vaccination publicity in a short time, which leads to the high frequency of vaccination information, makes the majority of people indifferent and ignore the necessary consciousness of vaccination, and is easy to produce mainstream fatigue psychology to COVID-19 vaccination. Secondly, the dynamic analysis of the model is carried out, and the regeneration matrix method is used to derive the threshold conditions for the continuous spread of COVID-19 vaccination consciousness among the public. As long as the number of people with vaccination consciousness is guaranteed to reach a certain threshold based on the threshold conditions, each person in the investigated group will have the consciousness of COVID-19 vaccination. Then, some simulations are given on the transmission process of vaccination consciousness among the public. Finally, the parameters of the model are estimated by using the official data provided by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China on the number of COVID-19 vaccination over time to verify its effectiveness. Accurate data is the prerequisite for parameter estimation. According to the official data from March 23, 2021 to May 16, 2021, the National Health Commission pointed out that the people who received the COVID-19 vaccination during this period were all vaccinated for the first time. Therefore, the number of COVID-19 vaccination reported daily is approximated as the data of the number of people with vaccination consciousness in the parameter estimation. The data are continuous, with “one day” as the unit time. The research shows that: first of all, the excessive use of a single channel or only one slogan during the publicity of COVID-19 vaccination is easy to lead to mainstream fatigue of COVID-19 vaccination consciousness among the public, resulting in the decline of the efficiency of transmission for vaccination consciousness, and even make people lose the consciousness. Therefore, the propaganda slogan should be changed and multiple channels are used to disseminate the information and knowledge of COVID-19 vaccination in a balanced manner, so as to promote of the spread of COVID-19 vaccination consciousness among various channels, and in turn maximize the efficiency of transmission. Finally, government departments should mobilize all forces to comprehensively strengthen the psychological counseling of those who have deviation of vaccination consciousness and carry out appropriate psychological communication. If necessary, appropriate supervision and control should be carried out to change their cognitive biases and resistance to vaccination, stop spreading about COVID-19 vaccination, and promote the formation of correct cognition of COVID-19 vaccination, which will effectively promote the spread of vaccination consciousness. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A New Perspective of Theoretical Research on Stock Price Volatility:Based on the Perspective of Heterogeneous Emotional Trading ZHANG Xiao-cheng, ZHU Dong-ju, LIU Ming-xian 2023, 31 (8):  278-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1369 Abstract ( 267 )   PDF (2180KB) ( 806 )   Save Compared with the mature stock market, the Chinese stock market has typical sentiment market characteristics. This is due to the lack of professional knowledge of individual investors, the characteristics of emotional trading, and the high proportion of individual investor transactions. As a result, the motive of institutional collusion is stronger than the supervision effect, and the institution cannot effectively play the role of value correction, which affects the healthy development of the stock market. In addition, the research of foreign scholars is mostly based on the mature market of their own country, and the research is not applicable to China; the domestic research is mostly based on empirical analysis, and the theoretical analysis is insufficient and rarely focuses on the emotional trading behavior of heterogeneous traders. Therefore, from the perspective of investor sentiment heterogeneity, this paper divides stock market investors into optimistic traders and pessimistic traders, and uses the CARA utility function to establish a mathematical model that conforms to the characteristics of China's stock market. The actual impact of changes in the proportion of emotional traders on stock price volatility. The research results show that: when the proportion of optimistic traders is small, as pessimism eases, the effect of optimism on stock price volatility is an inverted U-shaped curve; and as optimism rises, the ease of pessimism has the same effect on stock price fluctuations. Inverted U shape. When the proportion of optimistic traders is high, both the increase in optimistic investor sentiment and the easing of pessimism will boost stock price volatility. From the perspective of the heterogeneous trader structure, the effect of the proportion of optimistic investors on stock price volatility is a positive U-shaped curve, and higher levels of optimism and lower levels of pessimism will lead to the reversal of their effects. Numerical simulations are also carried out in this paper to verify the rationality of the results in this paper. The research results of this paper better explain the existence logic of bull and bear markets, false information disclosure and inefficiency of macro-control policies in the emotional market, and provide suggestions for optimizing the structure of traders, improving the quality of information disclosure, and preventing systemic risks in the stock market. theoretical basis. References | Related Articles | Metrics