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15 November 2023, Volume 31 Issue 11 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Research on the Decision-making of Emergency Eedical Supplies under Government-Subsidized Government-Enterprise Agreement Reserve Jie WEI,Ying-ying ZHENG,Chang LIU,Rui ZHANG 2023, 31 (11):  1-11.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2437 Abstract ( 426 )   HTML ( 128 )   PDF (883KB) ( 667 )   Save As the COVID-19 has spreaded globally since last year， all countries suffered severely. China took active responses to the disease when it first appeared， and first-level responses to public health emergencies have been initiated across the country. However， for a long time， the government’s emergency medical supplies reserve couldn’t meet the huge demand after the outbreak. It exposed our country’s weaknesses that we are inexperienced in managing emergency medical supplies reserve. For now， there are three main problems. Fristly， the major department of the reserve is government， while society and enterprises rarely participate in. Secondly， there are few forms of reserves， most of them are physical reserves， and production capacity reserves takes a small portion. Thirdly， the enthusiasm of enterprises participating in normalized emergency medical supplies reserve is not high due to the lack of government incentives. Therefore， in order to improve our country’s emergency medical supplies reserve system， besides government’s own reserves， the government should also entrust enterprises to reserve both physical and production capacity. At the same time， government should provide subsidies to the agreement enterprises， in order to encourage them to keep the production lines， what kind of reserve form the agreement enterprise should choose and how government subsidies will affect their reserve decisions have become the urgent problems. This article focuses on agreement enterprises which provide emergency medical supplies reserve， supposing that government subsidizes their production capacity reserve. Aiming at maximizing the benefits of the agreement enterprises and considering the actual probability of the outbreak of the epidemic， a model of coordination between physical reserve and production capacity reserve of agreement enterprises is constructed and the government-led Stackelberg game theory is used to solve it. The optimal strategy of reserve in different situations is given based on the analysis about the impact of government subsidies， the probability of outbreaks， and agreed purchase prices on the optimal reserve decision of agreement enterprises. Finally， combining the realistic background， the conclusions are verified by calculation examples. The specific research results obtained are as follows. Fristly， the agreement enterprises will choose not to cooperate with government for its own interests when the probability of outbreaks or the amount of government subsidies is low. Secondly， the agreement enterprises will choose to cooperate with government when the probability of outbreaks is high， and they will decide whether to choose a single or a mixed reserve form in view of the combined influence of the agreed purchase price， the probability of outbreaks， and government subsidies. The problem of emergency medical supplies reserve of agreement enterprises is studied， and a scientific guidance and basis for the cooperation between government and enterprises is provided to carry out them. In the future， the government can be the main body of research to discuss its pricing decisions and subsidy strategies. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Typhoon Disasters and Stock Price Crash Risk Zhi-hui GU,Rui ZHANG 2023, 31 (11):  12-23.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2220 Abstract ( 375 )   HTML ( 19 )   PDF (608KB) ( 631 )   Save Previous studies on stock price crash risk generally believed that stock price crash is caused by the concentrated outbreak of “bad news” hidden by insiders. However， if investors sell their stocks because of panic sentiments， it will also cause the stock price to crash. The occurrence of natural disasters will panic investors， and impact of disasters cannot be accurately evaluated in a short time. Investors may sell stocks because of loss aversion. Typhoon as a frequent natural disaster， the panic caused by it may be transmitted to the capital market， causing a series of reactions in the capital market. Therefore， how typhoon disasters affect asset pricing and crash risk may be a very important issue. At the same time， a large number of innovative firms have gathered in the southeast coastal areas of China， but whether the technological competitiveness can effectively resist the impact of typhoon damage on the stock price crash is also a worthy question. Finally， whether allocates resources appropriately can alleviate the impact of Typhoon on the stock price crash. But， now， the research on these questions is relatively rare.Concerning the above issues， according to the prospect theory， it is argued that the destruction of the company's property and public facilities by typhoon will make investors panic， and then lead to crash by selling stocks. Therefore， typhoon damage has a positive correlation with crash risk. There is a complementary relationship between the core competitiveness formed by technological innovation and the fixed assets of enterprises. The destruction of fixed assets by typhoon makes the value of knowledge assets unable to work. Therefore， knowledge assets positively regulate the relationship between typhoon damage and crash risk. Financial flexibility can help enterprises cope with risks better， so it negatively regulates the relationship between typhoon destruction and crash risk.To test the hypothesis， a linear regression model is constructed for empirical analysis. The explained variable is crash risk. And negative skewness and down-to-up volatility estimated by firm-special daily returns are the measure of crash risk. The explanatory variable is the maximum of typhoon damage index of the city where the listed company is located based on the wind field model. And the control variables include a series of financial indicators and stock trading indicators of the companies. In addition， to analyze the moderating effects of knowledge assets and financial flexibility the product term of patent quantity and typhoon damage index and the product term of operating cash flow ratio and typhoon damage index are added into regression model. The sample of empirical research is 23，674 firm-year observations from 3，509 listed firms in in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets during the period 2010-2019. According to the above empirical model， this paper uses OLS model to make regression analysis on the sample data. The results indicate that the greater the damage of typhoon to listed companies the greater stock price crash risk. The knowledge assets intensify the impact of typhoon damage on crash risk. And financial flexibility can effectively alleviate the impact of typhoon damage on crash risk. In order to ensure the reliability of the research results and correct the possible endogenous problems in the regression model， the minimum distance between listed companies and typhoon center in that year is selected as the instrumental variable and two-stage least squares regression is used. The consistent conclusion is obtained.Compared with the previous studies which only focus on the impact of major sudden natural disasters on the firms’ property， for the first time frequent typhoon disasters are brought into the capital market risk analysis and further the explanatory power of prospect theory is expanded. In practice， the results of this paper can be used for reference to objectively evaluate the relationship between natural disasters and capital market risk， and improve the ability of firms and investors to deal with natural disasters. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Value Effects of Cash, Inventory and Social Responsibility of Firms under the Impact of Major Emergencies: New Evidences from the COVID-19 Shock Ai-fan LING,Jia ZHOU,Le TANG 2023, 31 (11):  24-36.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0874 Abstract ( 202 )   HTML ( 9 )   PDF (661KB) ( 645 )   Save The emergency of COVID-19 epidemic causes the fast dropping of GDP and prevents the development of world economics. Most of companies emerge the large loss， and even lots of companies had gone bankrupt during covid-19 epidemic. For corporate finance respective， the question attracts our attention： which corporate characteristics and what mechanisms can help the companies to alleviate the shocks of COVID-19 epidemic. It attempts to reveal the value effects of corporate characteristics such as cash， inventory and social responsibility in this paper. By analyzing the response of company stock prices to the impact of COVID-19， it focus on the role of corporate cash， inventory and social responsibility scores in stabilizing company stock prices under the shock of the epidemic， and the effects of other corporate characteristics are compared such as market to book ratio， size， leverage ratio and asset turnover ratio.RE{T}_{it}=\alpha +{\beta }_{\mathrm{1}}INV{T}_i\times COVI{D}_t+{\beta }_{\mathrm{2}}CAS{H}_i\times COVI{D}_t+{\beta }_{\mathrm{3}}LnCS{R}_i\times COVI{D}_t+{\beta }_{\mathrm{4}}COVI{D}_t+{\beta }_{\mathrm{5}}INV{T}_i+{\beta }_{\mathrm{6}}CAS{H}_i+{\beta }_{\mathrm{7}}LnCS{R}_i+\phi \text{'}{X}_i+IFE+PFE+FFE+{\epsilon }_{it}.Where　is the return rate of stock， and the cross-term INV{T}_i\times COVI{D}_t，\text{?}CAS{H}_i\times COVI{D}_t and LnCS{R}_i\times COVI{D}_t are the union impacts of corporate cash， inventory， social responsibility and COVID-19 epidemic.To check the impacts of corporate cash， inventory and social responsibility on the company equity return during the COVID-19 epidemic， the following regression equation is used. The daily return rates from Jan. to April 2020 of stocks from 1470 firms of A-share market are used， which is not include into ST firms， financial corporates， housing and other public management corporates. There are 116，507 daily return rates. To test efficiently the impacts of corporate characteristics on the shocks of COVID-19 epidemic and avoid the Endogenous problem in the regression， all data of corporate characteristics are chosen at the end of 2019， before COVID-19 epidemic.All data is from CSMAR database.Our empirical results show that cash， social responsibility and market to book ratio have significant positive value effects， while corporate inventory has not that effect. The higher the companies holding cash， social responsibility score or market to book ratio before the epidemic， the greater the effect on alleviating the decline of stock price and stabilizing the rise of stock volatility. Besides， for companies in provinces or industries with more severe epidemics， cash and social responsibility levels have more significant effects on the company's ability to stabilize the equity return. Only when the market liquidity increases or the financing constraint of the company decreases， the inventory level become to emerge a positive value effect to the decline of the stock price. This study has a certain reference value for the company how to carry out crisis prevention management， and is of great significance to encourage the company to participate in social responsibility activities and understand the value of social responsibility to the company. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Land Auction Mechanism of “Limiting Land Price and Competing Promised House Price” Dong CAI,Chun-xiang GUO 2023, 31 (11):  37-45.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1768 Abstract ( 238 )   HTML ( 9 )   PDF (682KB) ( 742 )   Save China's housing price-to-income ratio reach a new high of 9.2 in 2020. High house prices have exacerbated the housing problem of residents， reduced the purchasing power and fertility of residents， distorted the allocation of social resources， and has become a thorny social problem， which has also attracted great attention of our country. As we all know， high land price is an important reason for high house prices. Therefore， optimizing land transfer rules is an important work at present. The existing land transfer often adopts the first-price sealed-bid auction， but this “the highest price gets” land auction mechanism often leads to a high transaction price. Although local governments actively innovate land auction rules， the effect is not ideal. Therefore， the land auction mechanism of “Limiting land price and competing promised house price” is put forward， and the conditions for the effectiveness of regulating house price are given.The most commonly used land auction mechanism is analyzed， i.e.， the first-price sealed-bid auction mechanism， and the work of this mechanism causing high house prices is revealed. Secondly， the land auction mechanism of “Limiting land price and competing promised house price is put forward”. Finally， through the comparative analysis of the two mechanisms， the conditions for the effectiveness of the new land auction mechanism in regulating house prices are obtained.The results show that the first-price sealed-bid auction mechanism introduces the competition of bidders for land price， the bidder with the highest bid price wins， and the land transaction price completely depends on the highest bid price in the market， resulting in the high house price； On the other hand， when the land auction mechanism of “Limiting land price and competing promised house price” is adopted， the competition of bidders for the promised house price is introduced， and the bidder with the lowest construction cost will win the auction. The government can effectively control the land price and reduce the house price by setting appropriate price limits； At the same time， when this new mechanism is adopted， too low price limit is difficult to ensure that the government can obtain reasonable financial revenue. Too high price limit will make the mechanism unable to control land price and reduce house price. Therefore， the government should carefully determine the appropriate price limit.The function principle of the land access mechanism of the first price sealed auction is revealed， which leads to the high house price， and creatively puts forward the two-stage land auction mechanism of “Limiting land price and competing promised house price”， which has a high guiding role for the practice of land auction. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Do Major Events Affect the Stability of Shipping Market Spillover and Transmission? Bin MENG,Rong-wen-jun LIAN,Cong SUI,Hai-bo KUANG 2023, 31 (11):  46-57.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0250 Abstract ( 237 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (1162KB) ( 655 )   Save The development of world has been impacted by emergencies of varying degrees and unpredictability， such as the Trade conflict between China and the U.S.， the crude oil price war， and the COVID-19. Investors' cognition and sentiment towards the market are directly or indirectly affected by the impact of the above events on the market relationship. Existing studies on cross-market risk spillovers of events are mostly confined to commodity and financial markets. As a giant industry always at the forefront of the global trade market， the shipping industry can not be ignored in the risk linkage between the cross-markets. It focuses on the shipping market， represented by Baltic Capesize Index， Baltic Panama Index， Baltic Supramax Index and Baltic Dirty Tanker Index， and the spillover linkage relationship between it with the commodity market which represented by crude oil， copper， aluminum and other industrial raw materials， and the capital market represented by stocks is explored. Therefore， it provides theoretical reference for cross-market portfolio participants， global transportation networks and capital markets. Firstly， the dynamic relationship among 12 fine molecule markets is modeled by Time-varying parameter VAR model （TVP-SVAR）. Combined with the spillover index of different periods， the intensity and direction of spillover of price information among different sub-markets are investigated， so as to grasp the dynamic trend of the market system from 2014 to 2021. Secondly， by taking four major events as examples， the DY spillover index model is used to construct network， and the spillover rules between markets at different time are compared. The potential time-varying characteristics of network center of gravity are explored， and the migration rules of system spillover center under the impact of events are intuitively reflected.The results show that　（1） The total spillover index of each sub-market remains at a high level， with an average of 67.29. Under the influence of different events， the total spillover index shows varying degrees of fluctuation， which confirms the influence of events on cross-market stability. The shipping market is the most important information carrier with an average of 37.37， and the Capesize bulk carrier market has the most outstanding overflow capacity. Moreover， the shipping market is different from other markets in that transporting and receiving capacity are asymmetrically distributed， which indicates that the fluctuation of freight price in the shipping market is mainly caused by its own influence， which once again proves the special status of the shipping market. （2） Different events have different impact intensity on the stability of cross-market spillover and the shipping market maintains the ability to transmit information. During the crude oil price war， the maximum of the overall market spillover increased by 31.76% compared with the average. During the COVID-19 pandemic， freight rate spillovers are higher than commodity price spillovers， highlighting the role of the shipping market in the system. In addition， the change of market spillover transmission center is also related to the type of events， and the information transmission ability of the market directly related to it will be improved to varying degrees when the corresponding events occur. New evidence for the importance of shipping market and events in the field of cross-market risk management and investment forecasting， and a new thinking direction for market investors are provided. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Risk Points Prediction of Emergency Public Opinion Ning MA,Yi-jun LIU,Liang-liang LI 2023, 31 (11):  58-66.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2045 Abstract ( 602 )   HTML ( 45 )   PDF (790KB) ( 790 )   Save After the occurrence of emergencies， coexistence of multiple risk points appears in public opinion communication， which amplifies irrational emotions of the public and causes negative impacts on the ecology of public opinions. In this context， how to accurately predict possible public opinion risk points derived from emergencies in the first time after the occurrence of emergencies has become a targeted and efficient key. In this thesis， based on historical data of emergencies that took place in recent ten years in China， various risk points in the public opinion communication of emergencies are identified and a co-occurrence analysis on risk points is conducted. Secondly， feature similarity algorithm is utilized to calculate the similarity between different emergencies， while Jaccard index is used to quantitatively predict all the explicit and potential public opinion risk points in emergencies. By taking history as a mirror， this research aims to predict public opinion risk points in the budding stage of risks from the perspective of source governance of public opinion risks， with the hope of offering help for grasping the initiative and the right to speak when coping with public opinion risks. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Innovation R&D Strategy of Manufacturers Considering Following Product Encroachment under Differentiated Innovation Capability Chun-yu LI,Cui- hua ZHANG,Yan-ting LI 2023, 31 (11):  67-79.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2268 Abstract ( 247 )   HTML ( 14 )   PDF (777KB) ( 465 )   Save With the development of the digital economy， the competitiveness and influence of brands are enhanced with continuous incremental innovation of products. However， after leading firms putting new products into the market， the following firms quickly produce a variety of imitated products to compete for the limited market shares. And the encroachment of following products is becoming much more popular. According to their innovation ability， leading innovation strategy or following innovation strategy are adopted by manufacturers with different market positions to implement product innovation. As the following manufacturers encroach， conflicts between horizontal channels emerge， which leads to more complex relations within vertical channels. As a result， different research and development （R&D） strategies are adopted by leading and following manufacturers， i.e.， outsourcing R&D （D） or in-house R&D （C） to cope with fierce competition， which contributes to the diversified channel structures of the leading and following firms. Based on the following product encroachment， manufacturers’ R&D strategies are studied under different R&D capabilities of the channels. Considering manufacturers’ innovation R&D strategies and the following products’ encroachment strategies， the Stackelberg-Nash game models under different market structures and channel structures are constructed. With backward induction， the equilibrium decisions and profits under six modes （i.e.， DN， CN， DD， DC， CD， CC） are obtained. Furthermore， the influence of following product encroachment， the factors of the coefficient of quality， the imitative level and differentiated innovation capabilities on quality innovation and profits are explored. Additionally， the selection of the leading and following manufacturers’ R&D mode， the encroachment strategy of the following manufacturer and the deterrence strategy of the leading manufacturer are analyzed. The results show that when owning a large innovation advantage， the leading manufacturer copes with product encroachment by enhancing quality， which improves the firm’s profits； otherwise， the leading manufacturer responds to product encroachment by lowering prices， resulting in a certain loss of profit. Meanwhile， internal innovation abilities can promote the manufacturers’ profits， but the quality cost coefficient has the opposite effect. When technological differences between the leading channel and the following channel are large， the increase of the following level promotes the leading manufacturer’s profits， and as the following level changes， the following manufacturer’s profits fluctuate repeatedly. When the difference in the innovation ability is large， it is better for the leading manufacturer to adopt outsourcing R&D， otherwise， it is advisable to choose in-house R&D； in addition， the following manufacturer’s outsourcing R&D mode brings additional profits to the leading manufacturer. When implementing outsourcing R&D， the following manufacturer possesses strong ability to resist external risks， and when competition is small， in-house R&D mode can generate more profits for the following manufacturer. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Impulsive Synchronization Strategy of Chaotic Supply Chain System under the Influence of Uncertain Factors Jiang WU,Yang PENG,Li-min ZOU,Yu-ming FENG,Zheng-wen TU 2023, 31 (11):  80-89.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2270 Abstract ( 227 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (983KB) ( 537 )   Save Supply chain system is usually easily affected by many uncertain factors. Synchronization strategy is an effective way to reduce the negative impact of uncertainty， the existing researches mainly use continuous synchronization strategy， but it is difficult to implement， and the discrete synchronization strategy is more practical. In this paper， a supply chain system composed of a manufacturer， a distributor and a retailer is constructed by considering the influence of the combined effect on the quantities of distribution and production， this supply chain system is very sensitive to uncertain factors and has the characteristics of chaos， small changes in production， distribution and consumption will lead to great changes in the supply chain system over time； by using Lyapunov stability theory and matrix inequality， the discrete impulsive synchronization strategy of the supply chain system is obtained； Furthermore， the chaotic supply chain system with uncertain parameters and input disturbance is constructed， and the corresponding impulsive synchronization strategy is given； Finally， taking China’s corn supply chain system as an example， the production， distribution and consumption of corn are controlled by using temporary storage purchase policy， batch ordering and promotion activities respectively， and the effectiveness of impulse synchronization strategy is verified. The relevant parameters are estimated and calculated by nonlinear curve fitting based on corn production， distribution and consumption in China from 2007 to 2018. These data can be found in the U.S. Department of agriculture’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates. The results show that： （1） reasonable impulse intensity and time interval can gradually restore the supply chain system to the expected state. Generally， the impulse intensity is small and the time interval is small. If the impulse intensity is large， the time interval can be increased accordingly； （2） unreasonable impulse intensity and time interval may lead to the deviation of supply chain system from the expected state； （3） For the chaotic supply chain system with uncertain parameters and input disturbance， the impulsive synchronization strategy is more constrained but has better robustness. These findings can reduce the negative impact of uncertain factors on the supply chain system， which is useful for decision-makers as it allows both the visualization and control of the states or dynamics of the entire supply chain system. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Recovery Decision of Waste Power Battery under Subsidy-Penalty Policy Wen-bin WANG,Ye LIU,Luo-sheng ZHONG,Jin-yu QI,Peng TONG 2023, 31 (11):  90-102.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2326 Abstract ( 316 )   HTML ( 20 )   PDF (1035KB) ( 787 )   Save The total number of retired power batteries in my country is about 200000 tons in 2020， and by 2025， it will reach 780000 tons. If these waste power batteries are not effectively recycled， not only the recycling of metal resources such as lithium and cobalt will not be realized， but it will also increase environmental pollution. Therefore， how to use government power to urge related enterprises to take the responsibility of recycling waste power batteries is an urgent problem to be solved.Although the existing literature studies the recycling and treatment of waste power batteries， most of them stay at the policy level. It is the most common to encourage enterprises to participate in the recycling of waste power batteries through subsidy policies. Blindly providing subsidies incentives increases the fraudulent behavior of enterprises. The government’s punishment curbs the fraudulent behavior of enterprises. The government subsidy-punishment factor is taken into account， and the issue of recycling enterprises’ selection of waste power battery recycling strategies is explored under the government subsidy-punishment policy. The main body of the recycling decision we choose to study is the power battery supplier and the new energy vehicle manufacturer. At present， the main recycling entities in my country are power battery suppliers （such as Tianjin Lishen， Honeycomb Energy Technology）， new energy vehicle manufacturers （such as BYD， Geely， Changan）， and third-party recycling enterprises （such as GEM， etc.）. The recycling qualifications of third-party recycling enterprises are uneven. There are fewer formal third-party recycling enterprises， and more studies on third-party recycling. Therefore， the third-party recycling enterprises are not our research objects. In terms of research methods， most literature assumes that the main body of power battery recycling is completely rational. In fact， the power battery manufacturer and the new energy vehicle manufacturer cannot obtain timely information on the recycling market， nor can they accurately predict changes in the external environment. They can only make decisions based on existing information resources and under conditions of limited rationality. The method of evolutionary game is adopted to explore the selection of recycling strategies for waste power batteries when the main body of recycling is bounded rationality.An evolutionary game model is developed for the power battery manufacturer （hereinafter referred to as the battery supplier） and the new energy vehicle manufacturer （hereinafter referred to as the vehicle manufacturer）， and the factors that affect the recycling choices of battery and the condition for choosing recycling strategies when the government non-intervention and the government implementation of subsidy-punishment policies are analyzed. The correctness of the relevant conclusions is verified through the simulation of the SD model. The findings include the following： （i） If the repurchase price of the battery supplier is satisfiedwhen without government intervention， they choose the recycling strategy. （ii） When the government implements the subsidy-penalty policy， the repurchase price is not influenced by the government punishment. Compared with the non-intervention situation of the government， the minimum repurchase price decreases with the increase of government subsidies. （iii） When the government implements the subsidy-punishment policy， the battery supplier and the battery manufacturer choose recycling strategy if the government subsidies are greater than the threshold. （iv） The government’s subsidy-penalty policy significantly shortens the time it takes for these to carry out the business of recycling waste power batteries. This research provides some ideas for the government to promote the recycling of waste power batteries by the battery supplier and the vehicle manufacturer.Some management insights based on the research results are provided. The effect of the government's subsidy-punishment policy is affected by the cost recovery of the battery supplier and the vehicle manufacturer. Therefore， the government can increase investment in technology for the dismantling of waste power batteries and use information technology to reduce recycling costs. Not only can it save the government part of the subsidy costs and better play the role of the subsidy-punishment policy， it can also reduce the waste of metal resources and environmental pollution.Our research has certain limitations. The model we designed only considers the game between the battery supplier and the vehicle manufacturer on the recycling of waste power batteries. The tripartite game needs to be further studied if the third-party recycler participates in recycling. In addition， how consumers’ green behavior and environmental awareness affect the strategic choices of the main body of power battery recycling also need to be further explored. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Quality Positioning of Poverty Alleviation Agricultural Products under Consumers' Perception Chun FENG,Qian-yun GUO 2023, 31 (11):  103-113.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2476 Abstract ( 213 )   HTML ( 11 )   PDF (1026KB) ( 844 )   Save The backwardness of agricultural development has led to low incomes of farmers in poverty-stricken areas of our country. In order to solve the income problem of farmers in this area and strengthen the “hematopoietic function” of poverty-stricken areas， the government adopts the consumption poverty alleviation model to give great support in the sales link of agricultural products. The market competition between the poor-quality agricultural products and the original two agricultural products with different quality is analyzed under the consumer's perception of quality， and it aims to get the retailer's introduction decision.It is found that （1） the introduction of poverty alleviation agricultural products will not necessarily reduce the sales of the original agricultural products in the market， but can increase the overall market coverage； （2） regardless of the quality structure of the introduction of poverty alleviation agricultural products， retailers and consumers are willing to actively participate Poverty alleviation， under certain conditions， the total social welfare will also increase； （3） The quality positioning of poverty alleviation agricultural products is close to brand agricultural products， which is most beneficial to retailers and farmers themselves.Combining the above conclusions， this article provides management inspiration for the long-term operation mechanism of consumer poverty alleviation based on farmers， retailers and the government. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Comparative Study on Sequential Topics of Automobile Brand Quality Based on Stochastic Kriging Wen SHI,Yu-jie QU,Guo-yin JIANG 2023, 31 (11):  114-127.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0446 Abstract ( 220 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (872KB) ( 352 )   Save The automobile industry is the leading and pillar industry of the national economy， and the quality and safety of cars have aroused broad public concern. Most of the research has been conducted from the aspects of the automobile recall system， its impact， and the discovery of defective products. However， no investigations are found to mine the topics of automobile recalls from large-scale text data of quality defects. The differences and the advantages and disadvantages of different automobile brands in each dimension of automobile quality under the joint venture background are studied from the perspectives of consumer complaints and automobile recalls. Since the texts of automobile recalls do not show a strong sequential correlation， the latent Dirichlet allocation （LDA） model is used to analyze it. Due to the strong sequential correlation in the texts of consumer complaints， such texts are studied based on the sequential latent Dirichlet allocation （SeqLDA） model. Considering that the SeqLDA model has more input parameters that affect the effect of model fitting， the optimized model （SK-SeqLDA）， which combines stochastic Kriging （SK） and the SeqLDA model， is proposed to analyze the texts of complaints.Research shows that LDA is suitable for the texts of automobile recalls， and SeqLDA is suitable for consumer complaints. The SK-SeqLDA model can significantly enhance the fitting effect of the sequential latent Dirichlet allocation model. In addition， body accessories and upholsteries are involved in many topics in the dataset of consumer complaints. A number of topics relate to the problems of braking in the automobile recalls dataset. The recalls of imported automobiles are more proactive， mainly focused on engines； the recalls of joint venture automobiles are primarily focused on vehicle controls and brake pedals， and the proportions of topics in self-owned brands are balanced. The results provide theoretical references for automobile manufacturers in management decisions， relevant government departments in defect investigation， and consumers in purchase and vehicle maintenance. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on the Influence of Consumer Structure with Bounded Rationality on Asymmetric E-commerce Pre-sale Strategy Peng ZHANG,Yun XIA,Hui-juan WANG 2023, 31 (11):  128-139.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0566 Abstract ( 296 )   HTML ( 14 )   PDF (873KB) ( 376 )   Save As a new business model to improve consumers’ presale experience sinking presale is attracting the attention of many e-commerce companies. More and more e-commerce companies adopt sinking presale mode since 2019.On the other hand， consumer structure affects the e-commerce companies’ decision-making. Therefore， is the sinking presale mode is a better choice for asymmetric e-commerce platforms in presence of bounded rational consumers？ Can the asymmetric e-commerce platforms win the competition by adopting differentiated presale strategy？ How the consumer structure affect the asymmetric e-commerce platforms’ strategy choosing？ In this paper， the Hotelling model is utilized to construct the duopoly market and four scenarios are analyzed： （1）Both of the asymmetric e-commerce platforms adopt regular presale mode， （2）the e-commerce platform with better logistic service adopts regular presale mode while the other one adopts sinking presale mode， （3）the e-commerce platform with better logistic service adopts sinking presale mode while the other one adopts regular presale mode， and （4）Both of the asymmetric e-commerce platforms adopt sinking presale mode. After deducing the optimal pricing of the asymmetric e-commerce platforms under different competition scenarios， the decision results are compared and the Nash equilibria are obtained. The study shows that （1） only when the proportion of bounded rational consumers in the market is below a certain threshold， two logistics service asymmetric e-commerce platforms will adopt the sinking presale mode simultaneously. （2） When the proportion of bounded rational consumers is higher than a certain threshold， the two logistics service asymmetric e-merchants will still adopt the general presale mode simultaneously. （3） When the proportion of bounded rational consumers is moderate， if the e-commerce platform with logistics service advantage in the general presale mode decides to maintain the logistics service advantage in the sinking presale mode， it will eventually not adopt the sinking presale mode， and its competitors will adopt the sinking presale mode to compete with it； if the e-commerce platform without logistics service advantage in the general presale mode decides to choose better logistics service than its competitor in the sinking presale mode， its competitors will adopt the sink pre-sale model， while this e-commerce platform can only compete with it by adopting the general presale mode. In addition， the impact of the product delivery time of the e-commerce platform with logistics service advantage in the general presale mode and the proportion of bounded rational consumers on the decision outcomes of the two e- commerce platforms is analyzed， and the comparisons between the decision outcomes of the two e-commerce platforms are obtained in the four different presale competition scenarios under different conditions. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Financial Distress Prediction of “New Third Board” Firms by Integrating Soft Information in Current Reports Xi-mei LV,Cui-qing JIANG,Yong DING,Zhao WANG 2023, 31 (11):  140-150.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0773 Abstract ( 185 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (762KB) ( 780 )   Save Chinese “New Third Board” market plays an important role in providing financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises. However， with the rapid expansion of this market， the number of firms in financial distress is increasing year by year， which brings severe risk for investments. With the emergence of China as one of the leading markets for international investors， the “New Third Board” market has attracted increasing attention. Hence， predicting financial distress of firms in this market could provide strong support for investors and creditors， especially those in China， to make investment decisions and avoid investment risk. However， compared with listed firms， “New Third Board” firms have longer disclosure cycle of accounting information， and poorer continuity of market trading information， which makes their financial distress prediction faced with severe challenges. In order to alleviate the problem of information asymmetry effectively， a method of financial distress prediction by integrating soft information in current reports is proposed. At first， extract effective features from current reports using a topic model， and combine with accounting features to predict financial distress for Chinese “New Third Board” firms. At the same time， the prediction performances using soft information in current reports or in periodic reports are compared. The results show that soft information in current reports can significantly improve the accuracy of financial distress prediction， while soft information in periodic reports has no significant predictive effect. The study is important in theory meaning and practical value. First， our research broadens the literature on using textual information for financial distress prediction. Second， the proposed method can also be applied to other similar scenarios where the current reports are available， such as credit risk evaluation of listed firms. Third， investors may consider combining soft information in current reports with accounting information to make better investment decisions. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Fintech, Outward FDI and High-Quality Economic Development: Based on the Perspective of “Mutual Promotion of Dual Circulation” Dan-yang LIU,Zhi-gang HUANG 2023, 31 (11):  151-164.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0246 Abstract ( 280 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (759KB) ( 701 )   Save Under the construction of “Dual Circulation”，as a major driving force for achieving high-quality economic development， Fintech’s economic effects should not be limited to the “Domestic Circulation”， but also to the "Mutual Promotion of Domestic and International Circulation".However， the research and practice on how to give full play to Fintech's driving force for economic development is often limited to domestic perspective. Comprehensively analyzing the impact of international economic cooperation on Fintech’s economic effect， and seeking new breakthroughs in Fintech’s healthy development from international perspective has been neglected. This is a research weakness in the background of building a “Dual Circulation”. In view of this， by innovatively integrating Fintech， outward foreign direct investment （OFDI） and high-quality economic development into a unified framework， the following subjects are discussed from the angle of “Mutual Promotion of Dual Circulation”： What is the effect of Fintech on high-quality economic development？ Can OFDI， an external circulation factor， promote this effect？ It is shown inthe theoretical model that strengthening the application of Fintech and promoting its spillover effect can effectively improve financial efficiency and economicdevelopment quality in the case of over-investment in the financial sector. This conclusion is verified by dynamic SAR model （dynamic spatial auto-regression model）： Fintech has no significant effecton improving economicdevelopment quality， whileits application in OFDI promotes it to play a greater economic effect. The function of “Domestic Circulation” and “International Circulation” in the high-quality construction of China’s economy is objectely and dialectically analyzed， and a new track forguiding the standard and healthy development of Fintech under the “Dual Circulation” is provided. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing and Coupon Strategies in an Online Platform-based Supply Chain Dan LI,Yong-mei LIU,Xiao-hong CHEN 2023, 31 (11):  165-173.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1614 Abstract ( 369 )   HTML ( 24 )   PDF (715KB) ( 922 )   Save Preferential strategy is one of the important ways for firms to promote the growth of online retail. There are two kinds of preferential strategies implemented by third-party sellers and platforms， as well as two kinds of preferential forms： proportional discount and amount discount. This study aims to answer the following research questions： how do different preferential strategies and different preferential forms affect the firms’ price decision-making， preferential strategies and profits. Does preferential policy always benefit consumers？ Is preferential strategy implemented by the platform always beneficial to third party sellers？By comparing the equilibrium solutions of the four preferential modes， the impact of different preferential strategy implementation modes and market characteristics on the firms’ decision-making and profit is analyzed. In addition， by comparing the consumer surplus in different situations， the impact of the implementation of preferential policies on consumers is discussed.The results show that　first of all， consumers can not always enjoy the real preferential price benefits， and the actual price paid by customers after the implementation of preferential strategy may be higher than that when the preferential strategy is not implemented. When the seller implements the preferential policy alone or in collaboration with the platform， the consumer can enjoy the price discount， but when the preferential policy is implemented by the platform， the consumer can not always enjoy the preferential price. Second， firms should adjust the price preference strategy according to the demand characteristics of the market to achieve higher profits. When consumers' valuation differentiation is small in the market， sellers only need to put in small coupons to promote undervalued customers to buy， and they can ensure their marginal revenue. When the demand of undervalued customers is relatively high， the platform creates a kind of cheap psychology to customers by setting a larger preferential force， so as to attract more undervalued customers to buy. Third， compared with the unified pricing model， the implementation of preferential policies on the platform will not always improve the seller's profit， but will interfere with the seller's decision-making and damage their interests under certain conditions. In addition， the platform is not always motivated to implement preferential policies， and the optimal preferential policy mode of the platform depends on the characteristics of market demand. Compared with the unified pricing model， the preferential strategy implemented by the seller can always improve the platform profit， and is the best choice for the platform under certain conditions. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Bilateral user Introduction and Value-added Service Strategies for the Third-party Platform with Cross-network Effects Rong-hua SUI,Xu-mei ZHANG,Bin DAN,Meng-li LI,Mo-lin LIU 2023, 31 (11):  174-183.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1683 Abstract ( 237 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (751KB) ( 658 )   Save With the development of the new generation of information technology， the third-party manufacturing platforms are booming. Such platforms are typical two-sided markets， and cross-network effects （CNEs） exist between their bilateral users. That is， one side users’ market scale will affect the willingness of the other side users to access platforms. Specifically， only if there are a certain number of manufacturers on platforms， suppliers will be willing to access， and vice versa. Therefore， the third-party platforms usually need to ensure the participation of one side users first， and then attract the other side users. In practice， the third-party manufacturing platforms can attract manufacturers or suppliers to access first. Affected by the CNEs of manufacturers and suppliers， different introduction strategies of the third-party platforms will bring a differentiated access volume of users， which affects the development and profitability of the platforms. Consequently， the third-party platforms need to strategically introduce their bilateral users. Meanwhile， to expand the scale of users， many platforms pay attention to value-added service （VAS） investment. Due to the existence of CNEs， providing VAS for the users on one side will affect the access volume of bilateral users simultaneously， which complicates the platform’s user introduction and related VAS and pricing decisions.The main work of our paper includes the following four parts. First， considering CNEs affecting the utility of users accessing the platform， the platform’s user introduction strategies are analyzed by developing a game model under different user access sequences. Second， under optimal user introduction decisions， the bilateral VAS and pricing strategies of the platform are studied， and the impacts of VAS investment on pricing strategies and the value of VAS are explored. Finally， through numerical examples， the main conclusions are verified， and some new insights are obtained.The main results of our paper are as follows.It is found when the manufacturers’ CNE strength is strong， the platform should always introduce manufacturers first. However， when the manufacturers’ CNE strength is weak， the platform can introduce manufacturers or suppliers first. In particular， the platform will benefit more from introducing suppliers first if its marginal investing cost to suppliers is high and that to manufacturers is low. No matter what user introduction strategy is formulated， under certain conditions， the platform should offer a high level of VAS to the users who access first but charge them a low fee， while a low level of VAS to the users who access later but charge them a high fee. Moreover， VAS investment of the platform brings a different impact on its pricing for bilateral users. For the users who access later， the platform should charge them more after providing VAS. However， for the users who access first， the platform may charge them less when it offers VAS. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Inventory Research for Omni-Channel Retailers Based on Customer Channel Preference Jian LIU,Rong-rong YIN,Jie CHEN,Xin-yue SUN,Si-feng LIU 2023, 31 (11):  184-194.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2151 Abstract ( 276 )   HTML ( 14 )   PDF (561KB) ( 628 )   Save It aims to maximize the retailer's revenue based on the inventory of omni-channel retailers in this paper. The impact of return loss on the retailer's maximum revenue is analyzed， considering customers' channel preference， product quality， and types of customers. It is assumed that customers can purchase products from both the online and offline channels. Drawing from existing surveys， how retailers should determine the optimal store inventory is explored， especially when a few customers prefer offline shopping channels. The characteristics of the optimal store inventory concerning product quality， return loss， and the probability of customer channel preference are detailed. Four new customer utility functions and retailer profit models are established corresponding to the four cases proposed. Firstly， the basic model is deseribed， which allows customers to return products from both online and offline channels without considering customer loss. Secondly， the mode is introduced that accounts for customer loss when stores face shortages and yet allows returns from both channels. To prevent customer loss， the third mode is then described， which suggests that retailers establish showrooms to alleviate customers' uncertainty regarding products. Finally， based on the third mode， a model is presented where setting up showrooms can reduce both the probability of returns and customer loss， though some customers may still leave if store shortages occur. The optimal inventory outcomes are then compared from the above scenarios. Our research reveals that， firstly， when customers' belief in a product is low， they will prefer offline purchases. From the retailer's perspective， increasing the store's inventory can minimize customer loss and maximize profit due to the relationship between inventory levels and loss probability. Secondly， when retailers introduce showrooms， they should reduce store inventory to maximize revenue. This scenario significantly reduces the likelihood of returns and customer loss. Thirdly， when the probabilities， influenced by product quality， are high for both channels， the decision to increase or decrease store inventory is determined by the return loss from both channels and the probability distribution of customers with channel preference. Our research offers valuable insights for omni-channel retailers to set reasonable inventory levels while considering return losses. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Altruistic Preference of Shipping Company and Vertical Cooperation in Shipping Supply Chain Jian LI,Jin-yang SHI,Bao JIANG 2023, 31 (11):  195-207.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1137 Abstract ( 250 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (629KB) ( 522 )   Save In the world's shipping market， where demand fluctuates， both abundant marketing investment and market demand fluctuations impose dual cost pressures on shipping companies and shipping agency companies. As a result， shipping agency companies can be incentivized by shipping companies' ‘altruistic’ behavior to maintain their market share and competitiveness. A risk-averse shipping supply chain， comprised of a single shipping company and a single shipping agency company， is studied in this paper. The influence of shipping companies' "altruistic preferences" on shipping market decision-making and vertical cooperation within the shipping supply chain is analyzed using a Stackelberg game model.By comparing the benefits of centralized decision-making， decentralized decision-making， and altruistic preference decision-making， the main results demonstrate that： 1） Altruistic behaviors of shipping companies will encourage shipping agency companies to increase the marketing investment for expanding markets demand， which will enhance the overall profitability and competitiveness of the shipping supply chain； 2） Even the effect is less than the ‘vertical alliance’， ‘altruistic preference’ of shipping companies can strengthen the vertical cooperation of shipping supply chain； 3） ‘Revenue sharing and cost sharing’ contract can realize coordination in the risk-averse shipping supply chain with more profit and stability of shipping supply chain； 4） The ‘altruistic preference’ of shipping companies can improve the flexibility of the coordination contract， which is benefit for the stability of the vertical cooperation in shipping supply chain. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Market Structure,Social Welfare and Platform Anti-trust Cong GU,Ying LIU,Ben-fu LV,Geng PENG 2023, 31 (11):  208-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0286 Abstract ( 226 )   HTML ( 10 )   PDF (661KB) ( 692 )   Save Market structure and social welfare are the focus of anti-trust policy. The existing research paid more attention to the determining of market structure， while the study on how the change of market structure will influence social welfare is still lacking. Based on Armstrong's work， a new platform model is established that is able to analyze and compare the social welfare under different market structures. The results show that although a decentralized market structure and competition can reduce the platform's ability to charge monopoly price， the effect of the competition is limited by factors like user stickiness and cross externalities. At the same time， the cross externality loss caused by the decentralized market structure also has a negative impact on social welfare. Under the simultaneous effect of these two factors， the decentralized market structure and competition will decrease social welfare， not increase. As a result， a structuralist antitrust system is not applicable in the platform economy. Under a centralized market structure， if the government can effectively control the monopoly power of the platform， such as banning monopoly acts and reducing platform prices， the optimization of social welfare can be realized. Therefore， the anti-trust policy of the platform economy should not focus too much on the market structure， but on improving social welfare by supervising the behavior and price of platforms. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Return Policies of Omni-channel Retailer Considering Consumers Disappointment Aversion Si-jia CHEN,Zhen-zhong GUAN 2023, 31 (11):  217-227.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2441 Abstract ( 268 )   HTML ( 12 )   PDF (821KB) ( 587 )   Save In the omni-channel retail environment， online and offline channels are highly integrated， which provides great convenience for consumers to purchase products anytime and anywhere or return products that do not meet their own needs. While consumers are usually uncertain about the product value in the online channel they may feel disappointed when the ex-post product value is worse than their prior expectation， elation when it is better， generally， the effect of disappointment on utility is stronger than that of elation， thus， the compounding effect of disappointment and elation is captured as disappointment aversion behavior， which has a significant influence on their decision making， for example， consumers’ disappointment aversion reduces their willingness to pay， so sellers must make a lower price to attract these consumers to purchase products. Taking into account consumers’ uncertainty about online product valuations and their disappointment aversion， in response to the problem of returns in an omni-channel environment， the omni-channel retailer’ return policies options were studied， starting from the product return channels， consumer utility function and omni-channel retailer profit model with non-return， same-channel return policy， omni-channel return policy were constructed. Firstly， based on the utility obtained by consumers purchasing products through different channels， consumers' purchasing and return decisions under different return strategies are analyzed， and the omni-channel retailer's market demand， optimal pricing and optimal profit are obtained. Secondly， the omni-channel retailer's optimal profit under different return strategies is compared and analyzed， and then the optimal return strategy choice is obtained. Finally， a numerical analysis is conducted to explore the impact of consumers’ uncertainty and disappointment in product valuation on omni-channel retailer's market demand， optimal pricing and profit. The results shows that the return policies can increase the omni-channel retailer's market demand in some conditions， but the return policies are not always beneficial to the retailer. The retailer will implement the return policies only when consumers’ disappointment aversion level is high， and when the product matching rate is high and the degree of disappointment aversion level is medium， the retailer provides the same-channel return policy； when the consumers’ disappointment aversion level is high， the retailer provides the omni-channel return policy； which provides decision support for the omni-channel retailer's choice of return policy. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Decision and Coordination of the Retailer Recycling Closed-loop Supply Chain Considering Corporate Social Responsibility Juan TANG,Bang-yi LI,Ben-gang GONG,Zhi LIU,Xiao-dong ZHU 2023, 31 (11):  228-237.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1809 Abstract ( 196 )   HTML ( 11 )   PDF (985KB) ( 428 )   Save Aiming at a closed-loop supply chain （CLSC） in which a manufacturer holds corporate social responsibility （CSR） and commits the collection of used products to the retailer， a centralized and a decentralized decision-making models are constructed to study the optimal pricing of new products， CSR investment， and collection rate decision-making issues， and the impact of the transfer price of used products on the equilibrium decisions and profit of each player in the CLSC is discussed. Then， a revenue sharing contract model based on Nash bargaining and a two-part tariff contract model are constructed， and the coordination effect of the two contracts is explored considering the influence of the manufacturer’s bargaining power， unit cost savings from recycling， consumers’ sensitivity coefficient on the CSR effort level and CSR investment scale coefficient， and then the advantage of two contracts is compared from the economic perspective of different channel players. Results show that if the manufacturer transfers all cost savings from recycling used products to the retailer， the CSR performance， collection rate， the profits of each player and channel can be maximized in a decentralized-decision situation without coordination contract. The revenue sharing contract based on Nash bargaining can attain partial coordination and the coordination effect increases in the bargaining power of the leader of the CLSC. The two-part tariff contract can coordinate the CLSC completely， and appropriate fixed fees can make the two-part tariff contract become a common choice of the players compared to the revenue sharing contract. However， when the economic benefit of the manufacturer’s CSR commitment is beyond a certain threshold， the difficulty of complete coordination of the two-part tariff contract increases（decreases） in the CSR investment scale coefficient （consumers’ sensitivity coefficient on the CSR effort level）. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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New 0-1 Mixed Linear Optimization Formulations for a Special Local Resource-constrained Project Scheduling Problem Zhi-xiong SU,Jian-xun QI,Xin ZOU,Han-ying WEI,Ya-feng WEI 2023, 31 (11):  238-247.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1040 Abstract ( 266 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (692KB) ( 749 )   Save Resource constraints are often broadly impacting， unavoidable impediments in project execution procedures. A number of recent， topical project management issues， such as the resource-constrained project scheduling problem （RCPSP）， have their roots in the resource constraint problem. The RCPSP is NP-hard in the strong sense， and current research mainly focuses on the global problem in which all activities are constrained by resource constraints during the whole project process. However， following the development of productivity， enlargement of project size， and diversification and complication of resource capacities， etc.， the “local resource-constrained” has been a more significant feature of resource capacities for projects. For example， most time the capacities of common resources could be guaranteed， but the capacities of scarce and expensive resources are constrained and restrict partial related activities requiring them. The recent extensions of RCPSP also reflect the “locality” features of “resource-constrained”， such as reactive RCPSP， RCPSP with resource capacities and requests varying， and multi-RCPSP. However， due to the lack of exploration for the “locality” feature， the computations for the optimal solutions of the above problems are inefficient. In this paper， these RCPSP with the “locality” feature are summarized as local RCPSP， and a typical sub-problem of the local RCPSP is studied， that is， a local RCPSP with “parallel structure” （the activities are parallel to each other）. Many other types of scheduling problems， such as the waterway ship scheduling problem， are also equivalent to RCPSPs with “parallel structure”.First， a new perspective for the deterministic local RCPSP is proposed. The problem could be represented in another way. First “resource-unconstrained” is assumed and an initial schedule for the project is proposed such as scheduling each activity to start at its earliest start time. Then “local resource-constrained” is considered and the related activities are adjusted for minimum lengthen of project duration under the resource constraints. In this representation， the scheduling is to sequence the initial n parallel activities as a sequential activity-chain in order to satisfy the resource constraints.Second， the work of exploring the “locality” of the considered local RCPSP is started. The project under finish-to-start-type precedence relations can be represented as a CPM network. The activity time parameters are studied and the considered local RCPSP itself is examined from the angle of the CPM network paths. The relations between the “local scheduling” and the “global optimization” are discovered， which is formulated using activity parameters. This discovery enlightens and helps to draw out the “locality” of the local RCPSP， and the formulations help to compute the project makespan determined by the local scheduling. The formulations are the keys to solving the problem， and result in the considerable reduction of the difficulty of the combinatorial optimization problem.Third， based on the above relations and formulations， 0-1 mixed linear programming models for the local RCPSP are formulated. The models only cover the “local scheduling activities” but could globally optimize the project scheduling problem， therefore have competitiveness compared to the usual formulation models.The competitiveness of the proposed models is evaluated by comparing with current models， and the proposed models are much more competitive to compute tie optimal solutions of medium- and large-size instances. For example， considering instances that arrange 1 renewable resource to execute some 10 parallel activities in a project including 120 activities， computational experiments test that the CPU times for computing the optimal solution using the proposed models and CPLEX solver are over tens of thousands of times faster than the usual models. And furthermore， considering instances that arrange 1 renewable resource to execute some 300 parallel activities in each project including 9000 activities， computational experiments test that the average CPU times for computing the optimal solutions is 236.16 using the proposed models.The works of exploring the “locality” of the local RCPSP， the relations between “local scheduling” and “global optimization”， and the methods of modelling， are foundations to explore more effective algorithms for the larger- or super large-size problem instances. Furthermore， these works， theories， modelling， and algorithms are also helpful to solve other types of local RCPSP， or even the general RCPSP， which can be extended for application to these problems， and may enlighten ideas and theoretical tools to improve current approaches and explore new ones.The problem statement is the following（1） For the project structure， a project constituting of activity-set V=\left\{\mathrm{0,1},\mathrm{2},\dots ,M,M+\mathrm{1}\right\} is represented by a topologically ordered acyclic activity-on-node （AoN） network G=\left(V,A\right)， in which the set A is used to represent the minimum finish-start precedence relations between activities with a time-lag of zero and the set V represents the activities of the project， embodied by the nodes in the graph. The activities are numbered from a dummy start node \left(\mathrm{0}\right) to a dummy end node \left(M+\mathrm{1}\right)， such that there are M non-dummy nodes. The dummy nodes have a duration of zero and no resource usage. （2） For the resource restraints， the activities （amount of n， n?M） in subset V^{\mathrm{*}}?V are executed by one resource. There are no precedence relations between these activities so that they are named as “parallel activities”. The resource is renewable and masters skills required by each activity i\in V^{\mathrm{*}}， and can only be assigned to one activity i at each time instead of more activities simultaneously. The goal is to generate a baseline schedule， with starting times s_i and finishing times f_i， and to assign the resource to each activity i\in V^{\mathrm{*}}， while minimizing the project makespan. Although the scheduling is “local”， the number of schemes for it reaches n！， and the systematic project causes the local scheduling to be “far-reaching”， and the problem may yield to no problems of global scheduling. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Strategies for Powerful Retailers' Gray Market Channel Structure Selection Xiu-mei WANG,Jun LI 2023, 31 (11):  248-257.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2289 Abstract ( 211 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (642KB) ( 243 )   Save Gray marketing emerges when gray marketers stealthily resell a branded product without themanufacturer's authorization. Previous research has examined the influence of the gray market on the manufacturer's channel selection strategy， but therelacks of research on how retailer choose channelbased on gray market condition. In this paper， based on the background of gray market， a supply chain system consisting of a retailer， a manufacturer is studied， in which the retailer is the leader and need to choose among three possible channel structures： A local gray market channel， where a retailer diverts products to unauthorizedsellers operating in the same region as the retailer， a multinational gray market channels， where the retailer diverts products to unauthorized sellers in another market where the manufacturer sells through a directchannel， and dual channel. A supply chain model considering the difference in unit service cost between gray channel and authorized channel is built. The equilibrium in each type of gray market is characterized and conditions under which the retailer will divert products to the gray market are identified. It is shown that characteristic of the industry where the gray market trade is booming. Furthermore， the retailer’s optimal profits are compared and it is found that the retailers' optimal channel structure selection strategy. Interestingly， it is also found that the firms benefit from the retailer’s diversion to a gray market when service cost and brand loyalty is large. It is also found that when the service cost is high， the retailer should choose the multinational gray market channel； when the service cost is moderate， the retailer should choose the local gray market channel；when the service cost is small， the dual channel gray market structure is the best choice. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Green Product Development Investment with Supplier Encroachment Ci-wei DONG,Qing-yu LIU,Bin SHEN 2023, 31 (11):  258-267.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1263 Abstract ( 204 )   HTML ( 9 )   PDF (648KB) ( 644 )   Save In this paper， the supplier encroachment strategy and the green product development （GPD） investment strategy are studied in a supply chain， which consists of one supplier and one retailer. With the supplier’s encroachment strategy， the GPD’s optimal endogenous investment decision is solved. After that， the supplier’s optimal endogenous encroachment decision is derived， by comparing the expected profits of the supply chain members under none investment strategy， retailer investment strategy and supplier investment strategy. Finally， numerical studies are conducted to examine the impact of the consumer green sensitivity and channel substitution rates on the retailer and the supplier profits under different strategies. The main findings of the study are： （i） Both the retailer’s and supplier’s profits are the highest when the supplier invests in GPD， regardless of the supplier’s encroachment strategy. （ii） When no one invests in GPD or when the retailer invests in GPD， the supplier should not encroach into the retailer’s market； when the supplier invests in GPD， if the cost of investment is small or if consumers are more green-sensitive， then the supplier should choose the encroachment. （iii） The supplier’s green investment level is higher than the retailer’s green investment level. Given a GPD investment strategy， compared to no-encroachment strategy， supplier’s encroachment increases the level of green investment when the supplier invests in GPD and decreases the level of green investment when the retailer invests in GPD. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis Approach for Evaluating Decision-making Units with Fixed-sum Shared Outputs Feng LI,Yue WANG,Liang LIANG,Gang KOU 2023, 31 (11):  268-278.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1432 Abstract ( 287 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (692KB) ( 510 )   Save Data envelopment analysis is one of the most important methods for organization performance assessment. The conventional data envelopment analysis method assumes that the output level can be changed freely for each decision-making unit， while the fixed-sum constraint which is common in many managerial applications invalids the independence assumption， implying that the output level cannot be changed freely for decision-making units. Although it has attracted much attention on evaluating decision-making units with fixed-sum outputs， there has been few previous studies in the environment with network production structures. Alternatively， a two-stage network structure with fixed-sum shared outputs is considered， where the first stage uses inputs to generate intermediate outputs and a proportion of shared outputs， while the second stage uses intermediate outputs and some additional inputs to produce another proportion of shared outputs and other final outputs. To address the fixed-sum shared outputs， a two-stage data envelopment analysis approach is proposed for evaluating decision-making units with fixed-sum shared outputs. Furthermore， models are develiped to decompose the two-stage overall efficiency into sub-stage efficiency scores. Finally， the proposed approach is illustrated with an empirical study of energy generation-utilization activities for 30 provincial regions in China by considering the carbon peak policy. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Dynamic Pricing and Replenishment Strategy of Perishables Considering Green Distribution Technology Investment Tian-shan YANG,Gong-lin YUAN 2023, 31 (11):  279-287.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1016 Abstract ( 220 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (732KB) ( 465 )   Save With the improvement of consumers' awareness of environmental protection， the impact of consumers' green consumption preferences on consumer demand has become more and more obvious. The joint decision-making problem of green distribution technology investment， dynamic pricing and replenishment of non-out-of-stock perishable products is studied in order to stimulate consumption demand by online retail enterprises， and the goal of maximizing the total profit per unit time of online retail enterprises is established. Based on the Pontryagin maximum principle， the optimal green distribution technology investment， dynamic pricing and replenishment strategy of perishables are obtained. Finally， numerical examples and sensitivity analysis of key system parameters are carried out. It is found that： online retail enterprises' investment enthusiasm and replenishment volume of green distribution technology decreased under high perishability rate， and the same perishable rate also showed the same law over time； under high green distribution technology recession rate， green distribution technology investment Enthusiasm and replenishment volume also decreased， and the decline rate of the same green distribution technology also showed the same law over time， but the decline rate of different green distribution technologies did not affect the pricing strategy. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evolutionary Game Analysis of Graded Diagnosis and Treatment Strategies Affected by Patients' Emotions under Regional Medical Association Shu-hui SUN,Qiang SU 2023, 31 (11):  288-299.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1886 Abstract ( 235 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (1012KB) ( 638 )   Save In recent years， with the continuous economic development， the masses have become more concerned about their own health. When they are unwell， they often skip the primary medical institutions and go directly to the second and third-level hospitals， thus causing the second and third-level hospitals to become "overcrowded." The phenomenon of few people visiting the primary medical institutions has exacerbated the unreasonable allocation of medical resources. The overkill of the second and third-level hospitals has caused a shortage of medical resources， while the idle medical resources of the primary medical institutions have caused “difficult and expensive medical treatment”. The establishment of a graded diagnosis and treatment system is an important measure to solve the problem of “difficult and expensive medical treatment” and improve the allocation of medical resources of the masses， which is related to the life and health of the masses， social stability， and the smooth development of the national medical and health undertakings. The graded diagnosis and treatment system follow the principle of patient voluntariness. The patient's willingness to cooperate has an important impact on the implementation of the graded diagnosis and treatment policy. Because the public attaches great importance to health conditions， when oneself or relatives are sick， they cannot be rational and have subjective emotions. Obviously， completely rational assumptions cannot reflect real social situations. Hence， the RDEU （rank-based expected utility） theory and game theory are combined， considering the impact of the patient's strategy under emotions on the construction of the graded diagnosis and treatment system， and a three-party evolutionary game model of the government， the medical service system and the patient is constructed. Based on the Lyapunov first rule， the stability of the strategy combination of game subjects in the three emotional states of the patient is analyzed， and MATLAB R2020a is used to simulate and analyze the impact of key elements （such as the system construction cost， the cure rate of primary medical institutions， and the government financial support amount.） on the evolution of the game system. It is found that： 1） Compared with pessimistic emotion， the evolution of the entire system is more ideal and the evolution speed is faster when patients are rational or optimistic； 2） When the cure rate of primary medical institutions is low， the patients’ best strategy is no cooperation in rational state， but when considering that patients have subjective emotions， if the construction cost of the graded diagnosis and treatment system can be lower than a certain level， the best strategy for patients will be to actively cooperate； 3） As the amount of financial subsidies increases， the willingness of the medical service system to participate in the construction of a graded diagnosis and treatment system will gradually decrease. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Moran Process Stochastic Evolution Model of Anti-terrorism De-extremalization Source Governance Strategy Shan-song WU,De-hai LIU,Lei WANG 2023, 31 (11):  300-311.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1860 Abstract ( 191 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (812KB) ( 663 )   Save China's Xinjiang region has gradually explored a successful experience of “de-extremization” to remove the ideological roots of terrorism and extremists by “combining attack and prevention， focusing on prevention”. In accordance with the relevant laws and regulations， through the establishment of vocational skills education and training center in Xinjiang， the source control of de radicalization for the groups participating in terrorist activities and extremist activities is realized. Due to the different degree of influence of extreme thoughts on trainees， their behavioral motivations for training are also quite different. The degree of cooperation of trainees is affected by the efficiency and effect of vocational skills training， the degree of fanaticism of extreme thoughts and the coercion of overseas religious extremist forces. However， this successful anti-terrorism experience has been maliciously discredited by the United States and other western countries. For the first time， the successful experience of “de-extremization” activities such as establishing vocational skills education and training centers in accordance with the law in Xinjiang is systematically demonstrated.According to the decision-making motivation of three different types of students， such as mild extreme behavior， severe extreme behavior and being coerced by overseas extremism， the expected return function is expanded into irrational factors and external random interference factors respectively. The stochastic evolutionary game model of limited group is established， and the dominant condition of “active cooperation” strategy becoming evolutionary stable strategy in student group is discussed. In this paper， Hetian vocational skills training center as a case， the relevant data and content are from the “vocational skills education and training in Xinjiang” white paper and other public information channels.The research shows that the strategy evolution of trainees mainly depends on the effect and efficiency of training， the development benefits of eliminating extremes and the scale of training center. For the students with mild extreme behavior， the positive cooperation strategy needs to meet certain income conditions to become the evolutionary stable strategy. For the students with severe extreme behavior， the negative treatment strategy is always an evolutionary stable strategy. When the external random interference factors occupy the dominant position， these interference factors will seriously hinder the de extreme teaching and training work. The above research results show that the combination of economic motivation means to improve the training effect and efficiency with non economic motivation means such as criminal investigation， intelligence interception and training scale is conducive to the development of de-extremization.The following problems have not been considered in this paper. First of all， there is no in-depth discussion on the infiltration process of overseas extremism， that is， the types of external interference factors and the ways to deal with them. The incentive of students' behavior is often the entanglement of economic interests， ideology and external random factors. Secondly， in the aspect of data analysis， it is helpful for the international community to formulate anti-terrorism de-extremization measures according to local conditions by analyzing the real behavior characteristics of students based on big data. Third， in the practice of international anti-terrorism de radicalization， countries are constantly exploring the source governance path in line with their own national conditions. In the future research， a comparative analysis can be made from a horizontal perspective， and strong theoretical proof and guidance can be provided for China's anti-terrorism “de-extremization” work in the next step. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Pricing Model for Multi-class Problem Considering Air Passengers' Choice Behavior Meng-xi CHEN,Peng TIAN,Xiang-yong LI 2023, 31 (11):  312-320.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1200 Abstract ( 223 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (631KB) ( 288 )   Save In this paper， the dynamic pricing problem of multi-class considering passengers’ choice behavior is studied by empirical research. The passengers’ choice behavior is modelled using a Multinomial Logit model. This passengers’ choice model characterizes observable attributes of passengers， including price， the number of tickets， transfer limits， refund limits and advance booking days. Then Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the parameters of passengers’ choice model and passengers’ arrival rate based on real operational data of airline industry. On this basis， a new dynamic pricing model applying the arrival rate and the parameters of passengers’ choice model is proposed to present the optimal price decision making process. The choice model estimates are then used to access the revenue performance of the current pricing strategy by the airline relative to pricing strategy optimized to account for passenger’s choice behavior. Empirical results show that， the optimal price decision according to the available seats of each class in each time period can be obtained. When the decision time is approaching the departure date， the optimal price of each class will increase accordingly. The price of each class will increase with the reduction of available seats at the same decision period. Our results show 22.32% average revenue improvements using the pricing strategy considering choice behavior. Especially， expected revenue of the flights with low revenue in actual will significantly increase by the pricing strategy considering passengers’ choice behavior. Overall， it is suggested that pricing strategy based on passengers’ choice behavior is both feasible to execute and economically significant in real-world airline environments. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Method and Application of Multi-value Chain Collaborative Data Mining in Power Equipment Enterprises Based on Deep Learning Dong-xiao NIU,Zhuo-ya SIQIN,Dong-yu WANG,Xiao-min XU,Huan-fen ZHANG 2023, 31 (11):  321-331.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0286 Abstract ( 261 )   HTML ( 9 )   PDF (1421KB) ( 585 )   Save In the digital transformation of power equipment manufacturing enterprises， it is necessary to mine and analyze the high-dimensional data of multi-value chain collaboration in the data space. The preprocessing of purchase， sales and inventory big data in power equipment manufacturing industry is studied. Firstly， the preprocessing method of data outlier checking and correction based on the combination of change point method and Local Outlier Factor method （LOF method） is given. Secondly， the data dimensionality reduction processing method of Stack Sparse Auto Encoder （SSAE） based on LASSO （Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator） deep learning algorithm is proposed （SSAE-LASSO）， which can compress and reduce the features， remove the noise information that seriously interferes with the data regression analysis， and filter the fault-tolerant redundant data with low influence， so as to realize the denoising and dimensionality reduction processing of the data. Finally， the method proposed in this paper is applied to different algorithms to test. By comparing the two preprocessed data， it is found that the method proposed in this paper can effectively improve the accuracy of the intelligent prediction of the sales volume of electric power products. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Digital Resource Aggregation and Recognition Method of Multi Value Chain Collaborative Data Space of Manufacturing Enterprises Based on Semantics Jie-ping HAN,Dan ZHAO,Xiao-long YANG,Mei-ling GU,Huan-fen ZHANG 2023, 31 (11):  332-340.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0287 Abstract ( 205 )   HTML ( 10 )   PDF (818KB) ( 399 )   Save In order to solve the problem of digital resource aggregation and identification caused by large data volume， low data value density， large data object granularity and fuzzy digital resource boundary in multi value chain collaborative data space of manufacturing enterprises， based on semantic theory， the digital resource aggregation and recognition method of manufacturing enterprise multi value chain collaborative data space is studied. Firstly， the digital resource aggregation model of manufacturing enterprise multi value chain collaborative data space is constructed； Secondly， a method for calculating the domain correlation of multi value chain collaborative data space of manufacturing enterprises is proposed； Then， based on the concept degree distribution and D-S evidence theory， the trust function and likelihood function are introduced， and the node discovery method of manufacturing enterprise multi value chain collaborative data space semantic network is proposed， forming a systematic digital resource aggregation and identification method. Taking the data of a power equipment manufacturing enterprise as the sample for simulation， the results show that the constructed manufacturing enterprise multi value chain collaborative data space semantic network has close connection， clear semantics and clear system. The proposed method has good aggregation effect and high purity， and can provide effective support for digital resource aggregation， knowledge resource discovery， knowledge service and intelligent decision-making of intelligent factory. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Correlation between Product Knowledge Attributes and Sales Forecast in Multi-Value Chain Collaborative Data Space of Manufacturing Industry Jian ZHANG,Ting-yu XIE,Peng PENG,Hong-wei WANG 2023, 31 (11):  341-348.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2692 Abstract ( 207 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (930KB) ( 775 )   Save During the processing of ontology modeling multi-value chain collaborative data space knowledge engine in the manufacturing field， it should be aimed at the problem of low efficiency of knowledge management and sharing caused by incomplete product knowledge. It is necessary to analyze the relationship among ontology， attributes and features. This is to complete the ontology modeling method of multi-value chain collaborative data space， including production， sales， supply and service. As one of the key links in knowledge engine application scenarios， the construction of multi-value chain collaborative data knowledge engine ontology in manufacturing industry needs to fully mine the characteristic relationship in data space. The tree integration sale forecast model is constructed based on LightGBM， XGBoost and Random Forest， and a feature correlation analysis method of manufacturing multi-value chain collaborative data space is proposed. On the prediction results of the tree integration model， the correlation between the characteristics and the influence of the characteristics on the sales prediction results are analyzed through the SHAP value. The effect of feature correlation obtained by using SHAP value on sales forecast in tree ensemble model is demonstrated through ablation experiments. The tree-integrated sales forecast model proposed in this paper and the feature correlation analysis method of SHAP value provide reliable theoretical and data support for the automatic screening of ontology and attributes in the modeling process of manufacturing knowledge engine. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Multi-value Chain Management Risk Identification and Control of Electric Power Manufacturing Industry Oriented to the Construction of Data Space System Ming-yu LI,Dong-xiao NIU,Zheng-sen JI,Bo-wen SHI,Xin-yi LAN,Huan-fen ZHANG 2023, 31 (11):  349-360.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2138 Abstract ( 259 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (1356KB) ( 655 )   Save With the rapid development of electric power industry and the continuous advancement of intelligent manufacturing in China， electric power manufacturing companies are facing problems such as insufficient technological innovation and weak competitiveness. For power manufacturing companies， how to effectively identify and control operating risks and form a new multi-value chain risk management model is of great significance to strengthen the level of risk management and control of power manufacturing companies. Based on data space and text mining technology，16，034 related risk policies and news reports of the electric power manufacturing industry are collected through big data crawler technology. The LDA text mining model is used to mine text topics and identify key business risk factors and risk topics. Then the results of risk identification are used to construct a safety data space for the entire life cycle of power manufacturing enterprises from the perspective of multiple value chains. Finally， the production and operation data of a power manufacturing company in the past 20 years are used to conduct a case analysis to verify the effectiveness of risk identification and control. The research results show that it is reasonable to identify the operating risks of power manufacturing companies from the perspective of multiple value chains. The construction of a safe data space for operating risks in the entire life cycle of power manufacturing enterprises can achieve reasonable risk avoidance and intelligent management in all links. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics