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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    25 April 2024, Volume 32 Issue 4 Previous Issue   
    An Industry Allocation Model Based on BL Model and Complex Network
    Zhongfei Li,Qi Zhou
    2024, 32 (4):  1-13.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0382
    Abstract ( 203 )   HTML ( 27 )   PDF (1198KB) ( 324 )   Save

    Industrial allocation is one of the indispensable steps in portfolio investment process. The traditional allocation models of industry ignores the overall correlation of the industry network. Based on the Black-Litterman (BL) model (the predictive values of machine learning and time series models are subjective points of view) in industrial allocation together with complex network theory, a graphical presentation of the BL model is proposed, the mathematical relation between the optimal portfolio of the BL model and the graphical presentation is proved and the corresponding empirical analysis is done. Then an industry allocation model is proposed, named BL+Network model. The model perfects the application framework of complex network method in “top-down” portfolio management. Empirical comparison with some traditional models finds that BL+Network model improves evidently Sharpe ratio and gain-loss ratio, industries whose eigenvector centrality degree are in near of the median sequence number should be allocated more, but fewer industries is not always better. This research provides a new perspective for asset allocation study, and extends the cross application of BL model and complex network method to portfolio management.

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    Tail Risks in Developed and Emerging Markets——Test of Spillover, Contagion and Contagion Determinants
    Xuetong Zhang,Weiguo Zhang,Chao Wang
    2024, 32 (4):  14-25.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2441
    Abstract ( 169 )   HTML ( 15 )   PDF (882KB) ( 180 )   Save

    It is examined whether there are cross-market tail risk spillovers and contagion between developed markets and emerging markets during the financial crisis in this article. The determinants of cross-market tail risk contagion are analyzed using the multivariate and multi-quantile conditional autoregressive model (MVMQ-CAViaR) to measure the tail risk spillovers between developed and emerging markets during the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis. While the cross-market contagion effect of the tail risk in the crisis period is analyzed through the test of the difference of the degree of tail risk spillover between the stable period and the crisis period. A international factor model is used to test risk contagion channels, including macroeconomic fundamentals, global risks and investor behavior. The impact of investor behavior is considered from the three perspectives:investor information asymmetry, liquidity constraints and herd behavior. The factors of investor behavior are incorporated into a unified framework to examine how to led to cross-market tail risk contagion during the two crises. Evidence shows that the two financial crises exist spillovers and contagion of tail risks between developed markets and emerging markets. Furthermore, macroeconomic fundamentals, global financial panic, and liquidity crunch are the main causes of cross-market contagion of tail risks. Last, investors’ information asymmetry, liquidity constraints and herding behavior are also causes of the cross-market contagion of the tail risks of the two crises.

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    Bitcoin Price risk, Macroeconomic Environment and Risk Contagion in China's Stock Market:An Analysis Based on Quantile Coherency Network
    Yunzhou Huang,Jionghao Huang,Xiaohua Xia
    2024, 32 (4):  26-37.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2541
    Abstract ( 144 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (18199KB) ( 123 )   Save

    The cryptocurrency market represented by Bitcoin is becoming more and more mature, and it is of great significance to study the impact of Bitcoin price fluctuations on China's financial market. Whether and how Bitcoin price volatilities could propagate through the sectoral financial interconnectedness network and result in larger scale financial turmoil in China’s stock market is investigated in this paper. Using the quantile coherency method, the financial interconnectedness is quantified and the general dependence structure between returns of 28 industries in China’s stock market is evaluated. By constructing a spatial autoregressive framework based on the quantile coherency network, the overall impact of Bitcoin price shocks is further decomposed into direct effects and indirect effects propagating through the financial interconnectedness of industries. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, Bitcoin price volatility has a positive impact on the returns of industries, and it can propagate among different industries through financial interconnectedness. Secondly, the risk contagion effects under the steady state, prosperity and downturn of the market weaken in turn. Thirdly, the mid-term (weekly) Bitcoin risk contagion is stronger than the short-term (daily) risk contagion effect. Fourthly, in the steady state of the market, the risk contagion effect under the weekly frequency financial interconnectedness network is stronger. Finally, lower interest rates and price levels can significantly reduce the risk contagion effect of Bitcoin price shocks on the Chinese stock market. The contributions of this paper are as follows. Firstly, the general dependence structure of 28 industries’returns is constructed and the financial interconnectedness network is further depicted under different frequencies and market conditions. Secondly, spatial autoregressive framework is used to decompose risk shocks into direct effects and indirect effects, which helps to understand the role of financial interconnectedness in risk propagation and empirical evidence is provided for the formulation of policies and regulations to prevent Bitcoin-related risks.

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    Investor Sentiment Based on Naive Bayes Method and Its Impact on Stock Idiosyncratic Risk
    Haiyuan Yin,Wenjuan Kou
    2024, 32 (4):  38-47.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0028
    Abstract ( 113 )   HTML ( 15 )   PDF (585KB) ( 164 )   Save

    With the vigorous development of web2.0 and the rapid development of text mining technology, different subjects create and share content on social media. In the process of information dissemination and sharing, the information structure of the stock market has been changed, which further strengthens the sentiment tendency of investors and ultimately affects their decisions. Investors driven by sentiment will induce noise trading and cause changes in stock prices, which is manifested as changes in stock idiosyncratic risk. However, the influence of investor sentiment on idiosyncratic risk is rarely mentioned. Therefore, by crawling the real-time post content of the individual stock bar of Oriental Fortune.com, the daily investor sentiment of individual stock is constructed using the Naive Bayesian method. A panel regression model is used to investigate the influence of investor sentiment on idiosyncratic risk.The research is supplemented on the impact of investor sentiment and the influencing factors of idiosyncratic risk, which is helpful for a deeper understanding of the influence mechanism of investor sentiment on stock risk from the perspective of a high frequency, and has certain guidance and reference value for investors, listed companies and regulators.The results show that (1) Investor sentiment in the lagging period and the current period all have a significant positive impact on idiosyncratic risk(IR), indicating that idiosyncratic risk increases when investor sentiment tends to be optimistic. (2) The effect of investor sentiment on idiosyncratic risk varies with the change of the difficulty of stock valuation. Stocks with a lower book-to-market and analyst tracking number are more difficult to value, and investor sentiment has a greater impact on idiosyncratic risk. (3) Considering the effect of arbitrage restriction, with the increase in the degree of short-selling restrictions, the effect of investor sentiment on idiosyncratic risk is significantly enhanced. After a series of robust tests, the above conclusions are still robust.

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    Ultimate Ownership Structure and Entrusted Loan Behavior of Enterprises
    Xiaoyan Wang,Shenggang Yang,Kekun Zhang
    2024, 32 (4):  48-57.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0462
    Abstract ( 69 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (564KB) ( 44 )   Save

    As China’s economy steps into the “new normal”, structural problems caused by economic growth have become prominent one of the important problems, “Moving from real to virtual” attracting extensive attention from the business and academic. In particular, entrusted loan transaction develops rapidly and has become an important part of the social financing system. A large number of entity enterprises engage in financial activities and allocate their own funds to entrusted loan transaction, which has gradually become an important feature of capital allocation behavior of entity enterprises in China. In this context, it is very important to clarify the influencing factors of entrusted loans for the normative development of corporate governance. Using manually collected dataset of entrusted loans of A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2016 in China, the effect of ultimate ownership structure on entrusted loan behavior of enterprises is examined. Our results show that different structures of ultimate shareholder ownership have different effects on enterprises engaged in entrusted loans. Cash flow right significantly decreases the behavior of entrusted loans with the tunneling motivation. The divergence between control right and cash flow right significantly increases the behavior of entrusted loans with tunneling motivation. Furthermore, the different effects of cash flow right and control-ownership wedge are significantly reflected in affiliated entrusted loans. State-owned property of enterprises weakens the significant effect of cash flow right and control-ownership wedge on entrusted loan behavior. New evidence is provided for a comprehensive understanding of the economic consequences of ownership structure, and enlightenment is also provided for understanding the influencing factors of enterprise entrusted loan behavior in this paper.

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    Graph Network Risk Perception and Sparse Low-rank Portfolio Management Strategy
    Aizhong Li,Ruoen Ren,Jichang Dong
    2024, 32 (4):  58-65.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0579
    Abstract ( 72 )   HTML ( 13 )   PDF (557KB) ( 132 )   Save

    The linkage of assets has strong network characteristics, and the contagion and spread of risks has gradually evolved from a simple one-way driving relationship to a network-like cyclical interaction relationship. Incorporating the contagion and spillover of risks into the framework of optimal allocation of investment portfolios, and studying the effects of asset volatility clustering and network spreading effects of risks, can provide a new perspective and thinking for avoiding investment risks and comprehensive risk management.Sparse low-rank algorithms and graph network structure-based entropy uncertainty risk models are used to dig deeper into asset characteristics and capture the dependencies between them. Then, using the dynamic tracking strategy of kernel-norm multi-objective matrix regression and adaptive weight learning method to optimize the allocation of portfolios in uncertain environments, the portfolios under nonlinear risk superposition and sparse low-rank optimization Strategy are obtained. It is found that the uncertainty risk model based on network structure entropy can effectively capture the non-linear superposition effect between assets, and the sparse, low-rank optimized portfolio can effectively select high-dimensional assets, and better focus on the allocation of high-quality assets. The income balance is more reasonable, the portfolio performance is more advantageous, and the robustness is stronger. The empirical conclusions have important guiding significance for comprehensive risk management, quantitative portfolio analysis, index fund investment, and risk asset pricing.

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    Evolutionary Game Study on the Cooperative Behavior of Multi Agents in the World-Class Competitiveness Cluster
    Pei Zhang,Bing Bai,Ziwei Zhao
    2024, 32 (4):  66-75.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0257
    Abstract ( 94 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (891KB) ( 107 )   Save

    By constructing the evolutionary game model among enterprises, universities, research institutions and support institutions, the behavior strategies of multi-agent in the process of network cooperation in the world-class competitiveness cluster and the conditions of gradual stability are analyzed, and MATLAB is used to simulate the evolution process of multi-agent interaction behavior. The result shows that it is an evolutionary stability strategy that multi-party entities in the world-class competitiveness cluster cooperate with each other. That is, enterprises, universities, research institutions and supporting institutions interact and rely on each other to jointly promote the network construction and operation in the whole network operation of the world-class competitiveness cluster. Therefore, to cultivate and construct world-class competitive clusters, it is necessary to make overall planning, to improve the layout of infrastructure, and to give full play to the functions of cluster organization so that build a multi-party network collaborative operation pattern.

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    Stochastic Multi-item Joint Replenishment Problem Considering Trade Creditunder China-Europe Trade
    Ligang Cui,Xiaolin Liu,Jie Deng,Dongyang Xu
    2024, 32 (4):  76-88.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0344
    Abstract ( 73 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (865KB) ( 47 )   Save

    With the uncertainties increase in market demands,fragmentary orders are becoming common practices in foreign trade between China and Europe, which brings great pressure on choosing the best transportation means for traders replenishing multi-items. Based on the fast development of China-Europe railway express (CERE), it provides a new option for transportation mode selection after CERE by passing its survival stage. Facing orders with many varieties and small batches, China-Europe businesses traders can make synthetically and flexible decisions between maritime and train transportations based on the time sensitivities of commodities in market and time consuming in transportation. In academic, joint replenishment problem (JRP) is the research area that dealing with multi-item joint replenishment and transportation. Therefore, under China-Europe trade circumstance, the stochastic demand JRP is expanded by considering trade credit during the transportation period in CERE. In specific, with the objective of minimum total cost, by considering the time cost of lead-time and assuming the trade credit is introduced to the business trader, a novel stochastic JRP model with trade credit during the period of CERE transportation is constructed, in which 0-1 decision variables are utilized to control whether a transportation mode is selected. In light of the NP-hard nature of JRP, a new hybrid differential lightning search algorithm (DLSA) is developed to solve the proposed JRP. In numerical experiments, the best combination of searching parameters, the searching stableness and effectiveness of DLSA have been analyzed. Through experimenting on different scale of JRP cases, DLSA shows the best stableness and searching effectiveness comparing to DE, BBDE and LSA in solving SJRP and JRP-T but with the worse searching efficiency. Managerial insights are obtained: (1) Trade credit not only helps traders positively response to the trends of small orders and replenishment increasing, but also shortens retailers’ replenishment lead-time. (2) Under a specific transportation mode, traders are inclined to choose carriers with lower prices than those with shorter transportation time. (3) From the perspective of traders, it is confirmed that the best strategy for improving the competitiveness of CERE in the short term is adopting a lower freight transportation rate. (4) Government plays a vital role in promoting CERE development, especially for CERE at different maturity stages.

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    On Grey Shapley Value Model for Evaluating the Contribution Rate of Weapon Equipment System
    Liangyan Tao,Li Wang,Xiaoxia Qi,Ding Chen,Sifeng Liu
    2024, 32 (4):  89-96.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1233
    Abstract ( 73 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (610KB) ( 152 )   Save

    Aiming at the problem that the existing system contribution rate evaluation method, i.e., “With or without” comparison method, ignores the emergence effect between equipment, a system effectiveness contribution rate evaluation framework from the perspective of a cooperative game is proposed in this work. First, equipment is regarded as participants in the cooperative game and forms different alliances of a cooperative game; then, considering the complexity of the system effectiveness evaluation process, the uncertain information and other characteristics, the interval grey number is used to characterize the relevant parameters, and the grey ADC model is designed to measure the characteristic function of each alliance; on this basis, a grey Shapley value model is constructed and the calculation formula is given according to the marginal contribution of equipment to the overall system efficiency so that the efficiency can be fairly and reasonably allocated to each equipment, and their respective contribution rates are calculated. Finally, the calculation of the system contribution rate of a certain air defense missile weapon system is taken as an example to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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    A Hybrid Multiple Attribute Large Group Decision-making Approach Based on TTDWAA Operator and TPBM Operator
    Weiming Wang,Haiyan Xu,Jianjun Zhu,Xin Huang
    2024, 32 (4):  97-107.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1031
    Abstract ( 95 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (868KB) ( 153 )   Save

    In the face of some complex multiple attribute group decision-making problems, the type of information with regard to multiple attributes is inconsistent, and the number of decision makers is or exceeds 20. In such situations, a new hybrid multiple attribute large group decision-making problem occurs. The hybrid multiple attribute large group decision-making problem can be seen everywhere in real life, and it has attracted much attention from domestic and overseas experts over the last years. However, so far hybrid multiple attribute large group decision-making methods are rare. In order to overcome this kind of deficiency, a novel hybrid multiple attribute large group decision-making approach is proposed based on three-dimensional two-tuple linguistic density operator and two-tuple linguistic power Bonferroni operator. First, 4 different conversion functions are designed to transform the hybrid information of decision-makers that contains precise numbers, interval numbers, linguistic variables, and uncertain linguistic variables into two-tuple linguistic information. Then, the three-dimensional two-tuple linguistic density operator is defined to aggregate the multiple attribute decision-making matrices of decision-makers with two-tuple linguistic information. Finally, the two-tuple linguistic power Bonferroni operator is investigated to aggregate to the collective multiple attribute decision-making matrix with two-tuple linguistic information. A numerical example concerning the selection of ERP softwares is provided to illustrate the validity and rationality of the proposed approach. The research shows that not only can the proposed approach solve the problem of handling the hybrid information and consider large group consensus, but the proposed approach can also reflect the correlation relationships among attributes and alleviate the adverse influences of the abnormal attribute values.

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    Door Assignment and Time-dependent Vehicle Routing Problem with Multiple Cross-Docks
    Houming Fan,Xue Bai,Panjun Tian,Yueguang Zhang
    2024, 32 (4):  108-119.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2021
    Abstract ( 102 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (1051KB) ( 191 )   Save

    The thesis is about the optimization of time-dependent vehicle routing problem with multiple cross-docks and door assignment, considering collaborative distribution of multiple cross-docks, time-dependent speed and time windows of customers. An optimization model is established to minimize the sum of pick up, delivery and transfer vehicles’ dispatching cost, vehicles’ energy cost, forklifts’ transportation cost and penalty cost on earliness and tardiness. A variable neighborhood search algorithm is designed according to the characteristics of the problem. In order to improve algorithm’s searching speed and solving quality, neighborhood search is simultaneously carried out in the interval of pick up, delivery, door assignment and cross-docking operation process, and the neighborhood structure includes inserting, switching and 2-opt. The validity of the algorithm is verified by multi-group examples. The results show that: (1) Considering the time-dependent vehicle speed and collaborative distribution of multiple cross-docks, the vehicle scheduling and cross-dock door assignment scheme could effectively reduce the operation cost and improve logistics distribution efficiency of urban areas. (2) The neighborhood search within each interval enhances the optimization ability of variable neighborhood search algorithm designed in this paper, improves the solution quality and provides an effective algorithm for solving the cross-dock door assignment and vehicle routing problem optimization. (3) Compared with fuel vehicle delivery and mixed fleet vehicle delivery, electric vehicle delivery could save cost. Therefore, logistics enterprises should increase the use of electric vehicles and give priority to dispatching electric vehicles for delivery services. The research results expand and enrich the research of vehicle routing problem with cross-docking, and provide theoretical basis for logistics enterprises to formulate the decision distribution scheme scientifically.

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    Research on Blockchain Network Consensus of International Trade Logistics Based on Big Boss Game
    Xiaoli Du,Dengfeng Li
    2024, 32 (4):  120-129.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0312
    Abstract ( 91 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (788KB) ( 180 )   Save

    Trust building is a key element in the international trade digitized process. As an emerging distributed ledger technology, blockchain has become the bond of establishing trust mechanism in the process of international trade digitization. Consensus mechanism which is the key engine of the blockchain technology plays a decisive role in trust building. In order to better apply blockchain technology to the international trade logistics, based on analysis the international trade logistics business, the blockchain consensus of the critical business where the regulator is a direct business participant is studied.The international trade logistics business is first analyzed from a consensus perspective. And the feature of the critical business is explained, that is, there is a key decision maker which is mostly the central authority obtaining the common trust of many business main bodies in practice. To further illustrate the business operation way under the blockchain system, from the point of consensus, the correspondence between the business operation in reality and the business operation blockchain-based is researched.To embody the importance and the decision-making power of the supervisor in the critical business, the participation of regulators is set as the essential condition to reach the effective consensus. Meanwhile, the consensus process and rule are elaborated. Firstly, the blockchain consensus is treated as a cooperative game process, and the blockchain consensus model is built by using the big boss game. More specifically, the meaning of consensus for the monotonicity, the veto power, and the average boundary payment decreasing of the big boss game is first shown. Then, considering the consensus resource input and the consensus vote of the consensus nodes, the big boss game consensus model is built. Thirdly, the constraint condition and its proof that guarantee the consensus model to conform to the big boss game is also given. Furthermore, the principle for deciding the final consensus alliance and the benefit way of the consensus nodes under this model is stated. And the τ value is used to the solution of the consensus model, and its blockchain consensus meaning is also analyzed. Finally, the effectiveness of the model is verified by the numerical analysis.The research results show that (1) The enthusiasm of the nodes for consensus voting can be motivated by the big boss game consensus model, and thus can better maintain the system operation. (2) More effective consensus and faster transaction processing speed can be created under the consensus model. (3) For the critical business where the regulator is a direct business participant, setting the consensus role which the participation of regulator as the essential condition to reach the effective consensus is consistent with the actual business rule. Simultaneously, the credibility and security of consensus process and result are enhanced. In short, the application of blockchain technology in international trade logistics can be inspired by this study, and the realization of a regulatory friendly blockchain system is also guided.

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    Competition Strategy of Crowdsourcing Logistics Service Quality Based on Big Data Technology
    Xiuli Meng,Jing Yang,Bo Liu
    2024, 32 (4):  130-140.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0350
    Abstract ( 140 )   HTML ( 12 )   PDF (1167KB) ( 164 )   Save

    In order to realize the rapid increase of transportation capacity, crowdsourcing logistics distribution mode is gradually adopted by O2O platforms in recent years. Meanwhile, the adoption of big data technology, such as real-time tracking of packages and receivers based on GPS and disclosure of identity information of receivers, is conducive to the improvement of crowdsourcing logistics service quality, such as optimizing distribution path and realizing more accurate and rapid matching between the service platform and receivers. Therefore, how to achieve long-term profits in the competitive environment is an urgent problem to be solved for crowdsourcing logistics enterprises.A quality competition differential game model of the platform and its receiver is constructed. The two parties’ optimal quality control level, profits and the optimal service quality track under three cases are solved by using the optimal control method. The impact of big data technology on the decision-making of both sides is also discussed. The results suggest that: the higher the service price, the higher the quality control level and big data technology level of the service platform, the receiver’s quality control level is motivated by higher commission rate and service price. The higher price competition coefficient is, the higher the profits of the service platform and the receiver are. With the increase of the competitive enterprise’s service price, the two parties’ profits are improved when the price competition coefficient exceeds a certain value. When the initial service quality and service quality sensitivity coefficient are lower than a certain value, the higher service quality sensitivity coefficient, the lower the two parties’ profits. When the initial logistics service quality is higher than a certain value, the higher service quality sensitivity coefficient, the higher the two parties’ profit. The competitive platform’s quality control level is not affected by the service platform’s big data technology strategy, however, its own quality control level is improved. Choosing to improve the level of big data technology is more beneficial to the increase of profits of the platform and its receiver. No matter whether the platform improves the big data technology level or not, the receiver’s quality control level remains unchanged. The conclusions are employed to provide targeted suggestions on improving the quality control level and profits of both sides, the big data technology selection strategy of service platforms and controlling the crowdsourcing logistics service quality.

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    Adoption of New Energy Vehicle in the Post-Subsidy Erawith Heterogeneous Consumer Demand
    Dongdong Li,Chenxuan Shang,Hongjun Lv,Jingyu Yang,Ling Zhang
    2024, 32 (4):  141-152.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0007
    Abstract ( 114 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (745KB) ( 145 )   Save

    In the post-subsidy era, how to design effective policy tools to achieve the sustainability of new energy vehicle promotion has become an urgent problem. By constructing a game model of government-enterprise-consumer, this paper investigates two kinds of new energy vehicle consumption promotion policies (price discount policy and green tax policy) with heterogeneous consumer demand, and then discusses the optimal promotion policy of new energy vehicle. The results show that: (i) the implementation of price discount and green tax incentive policies can improve the demand of new energy vehicle and the profit level of new energy vehicle manufacturers and has a good promotion effect. (ii) the consumer’s basic demand preference and the green degree of new energy vehicle affect the government’s optimal incentive policy choice. The optimal incentive policy is the green tax policy when the consumers prefer the fuel vehicle and the new energy vehicle is less green; the optimal incentive policy is the price discount policy when the new energy vehicle is more green. When consumers prefer new energy vehicles, the effect of price discount policy is limited, and the optimal incentive policy is green tax policy. (iii) consumer demand heterogeneity affects the implementation of policies and its effects. When the consumer’s basic demand preference is fuel vehicles, the implementation of the policy is stronger, resulting in greater demand, profit and social welfare effects. On the contrary, as consumers become more enthusiastic about new energy vehicles, the government will need less incentive, and the optimal green tax rate and its effects will decline. The conclusion of this paper is of great significance for the promotion of new energy vehicle and the transformation and upgrading of new energy automobile industry in the post-subsidy era.

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    Competitive Strategies for E-tailers in the Presence of Showrooming Caused by Match Uncertainty
    Yong Ma,Cuihua Zhang,Chunyu Li,Zhitang Li
    2024, 32 (4):  153-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2353
    Abstract ( 74 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (844KB) ( 81 )   Save

    With the glorious development of ecommerce and mobile Internet related information technology, more and more consumers tend to purchases online. Products match uncertainty acts as a major barrier for consumers purchasing online directly, indirectly affects demands as well as profits of both offline and online channels. Consumer showrooming behavior arises from their evaluation uncertainty about product attribute. For selecting proper items, consumers prefer to visit offline stores to touch and fell products.To counteract product match uncertainty, two practical strategies are proposed for the online retailers, i.e., introducing a virtual showroom and offering the complimentary return-freight insurance. After experiencing products through the virtual showroom, consumers can update their beliefs about product’s suitability according to Bayes’ rule. And then consumers can select suitable products more precisely. Four duopoly competitive models consisting of a physical store and an online retailer are constructed. By solving the profit-maximized problems, the optimal prices of two players are obtained. Further, through comparing the online retailer’s profit among four scenarios, the roles of the two strategies in mitigating product match uncertainty and whether it is profitable to adopt them are explored.Results show that both introducing a virtual showroom and offering the complimentary return-freight insurance induce the online retailer to raise its price. And the former generates growth in e-channel’s demand, but the latter causes a reduction. Generally, introducing a virtual showroom and offering the complimentary return-freight insurance are two complementary methods. And in the condition when the cost for building a virtual showroom is not too large, it is advisable for the online retailer to adopt both of them. Further, the smaller the proportion of consumers with low travel cost is, the more willing to adopt the two counteractive strategies the online retailer is. Additionally, introducing a virtual showroom compels the physical store to reduce its retail price and leads to a reduction in its demand. As a result, the physical store’s profits are hurt. On the contrary, offering the complimentary return-freight insurance even motivates the physical store to raise its pricing and brings in growth in the demand. Therefore, the physical can benefit from this return police.

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    Product Distribution Strategy underOffline Experience, Online PurchaseMode
    Tingting Xiao,Fuhai Nie
    2024, 32 (4):  164-175.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0055
    Abstract ( 104 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (949KB) ( 94 )   Save

    The product distribution strategy under “offline experience, online purchase” mode, and the impact of different distribution methods on supply chain performance are studied. Considering the consumer utilities, the game model with an online brand supplier, an e-commerce platform and a third-party logistics service provider (TPL) is constructed, the influence of parameters such as the service level of showroom and technical service rate on delivery strategy is discussed, and the supply chain profit under different circumstances is further analyzed. The results show that when the service level of showroom is low, the optimal strategy of online brand supplier is to outsource distribution service to TPL. When the service level of showroom is moderate or high, the technical service rate will also significantly affect the expected profit of the online brand supplier, and he should choose self-supporting distribution service or outsourcing distribution service to the e-commerce platform. The introduction of TPL will aggravate the double marginalization effect, resulting in low efficiency of the supply chain system, while the supply chain profit in other situations is affected by the parameters such as the delivery costs, the service level of showroom and the technical service rate.

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    Quality Guarantee Decision and Coordination of Service Supply Chain with Cost Disruption
    Wenlong Wang,Qiannan Ren,Yuchun Zhu,Tianjun Liu
    2024, 32 (4):  176-186.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0292
    Abstract ( 77 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (1027KB) ( 51 )   Save

    Cost Disruption inevitably breaks the equilibrium of the service supply chain, and service quality guarantee as an effective strategy to attract customers is affected by it. In the volatile economic climate, original quality guarantee should be modified to alleviate the negative impact of cost disruption on a service supply chain. The majority of the existing researches into cost disruption just focus on product supply chains, and only a few pay attentions to service supply chains, which all ignore the coordination with cost disruption. The gap between theoretical research and management practice indicates that it is imperative to analyze quality guarantee and coordination in service supply chains with cost disruption. Therefore, quality guarantee is taken into consideration in this paper. A service supply chain system consisting of a provider and an integrator is constructed. The equilibrium decisions of service supply chain are analyzed before and after the integrator’s cost disruption under centralized and decentralized decisions. Furthermore, the revenue-sharing contract is designed to coordinate the service supply chain with cost disruption. The results show that (a) when the disruption is small, the service price, quality guarantee level and service capacity are robust; when the positive disruption is big, the service price increases, the quality guarantee and service capacity decrease; when the negative disruption is big, the service price decreases, the quality guarantee and service capacity increase. (b) If the positive disruption is big, the integrator is willing to adjust original decisions; if the negative disruption is big, the provider is willing to adjust original decisions. (c) The profits for centralized supply chain and integrator vary according to the change of cost, while provider’s profit has certain robustness. (d) The revenue-sharing contract can coordinate the service supply chain before and after the cost disruption, and achieve Pareto optimality. In this paper, quality guarantee is introduced into the research of service supply chain with cost disruption, and expands related research, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance.

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    Impact Analysis of Fairness Preference on Industrial Development of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Projects
    Lili Ding,Zhimeng Guo,Yu Bai,Ping Wang
    2024, 32 (4):  187-197.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0368
    Abstract ( 67 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (1055KB) ( 56 )   Save

    As the problem of global climate change, the industrial development of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) projects attracts extensive attention from governments around the world. The fairness preference makes participants who make decisions pay more attention to the fairness of benefit distribution in cooperation than to their own absolute benefits. In the industrialization operation model of CCS, energy enterprises are in the core position, and their fairness preference will directly affect the success of the model. It aims at the fairness preference and the capital constraint of energy enterprises in the process of CCS industrial operation in this paper. An evolutionary game model between energy enterprises, CCS operators and banks is constructed. The different fairness preference types on the strategic interaction among the three parties and its sensitivity analysis are presented. Taking Guohua Shenmu Oxygen Enriched Combustion Transformation Project as an example, a simulation analysis is provided. Simulation results are shown as follows. (1) In the absence of fair preference or competitive preference, it is difficult for CCS to effectively promote the industrialization operation, and the competitive preference of participants is even worse for the long-term operation of CCS industrialization projects. (2) In the case of social welfare preference, the higher the preference coefficient, the more conducive to promote the industrialization of CCS project into the Pareto state. (3) The improvement of the participation willingness of banks and CCS operators have a positive impact on the industrial operation of CCS, among which the former has a more significant effect, and the effect is further amplified under the influence of social welfare preference. (4)The high operating cost of CCS technology cooperation among energy enterprises has a negative impact on the industrial development of CCS projects, but the social welfare preference can improve the willingness of energy enterprises to bear the investment cost, so as to reduce this negative impact. Hence, in order to promote the sustainable development project of CCS industrialization, it is very necessary to guide the fair preference of participants, stimulate the enthusiasm of financial institutions to participate, and reduce the operating cost of CCS.

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    Retailer Product Differentiation Strategy Analysis Based on Consumer Learning Behavior under the Showrooming Phenomenon
    Xiao Zhang,Xiang Xu,Yan Zhang,Fang Fang
    2024, 32 (4):  198-207.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0372
    Abstract ( 77 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (678KB) ( 80 )   Save

    With the rapid development of e-commerce and the rise of multi-channel retail models, more and more online retailers are adding offline brick-and-mortar showrooms to meet consumers' individual needs with the help of product features and uniqueness displays. Likewise, more and more offline retailers are opening up online channels to increase product sales. When online and offline channels coexist, product purchase channels are gradually diversified, and the "showrooming style" of "offline experience + online purchase" is popular among consumers, but it has also intensified the competition between online and offline retailers. In this paper, the product differentiation strategy of retailer competition under the showrooming phenomenon are studied and the impact of the showrooming and product differentiation strategy on offline and online retailers is explored. The consumer decision process is divided into two stages: the information search stage and the purchase decision stage, each of which has both online and offline channels. First, the learning behavior of consumers in the information search stage are considered, and the self-learning model for offline experience and social learning model for online information search are established. Then, the consumer utility models for different information search-purchase channels are built on this basis, i.e., the S-S channel, O-O channel and S-O channel, respectively. Based on the Hotelling model and the consumer utility model, the competitive game of offline and online retailers is analyzed. Furthermore, a competitive model of product differentiation of retailers are constructed and the impact of showrooming and product differentiation strategy on offline and online retailers is studied by comparing the base competition model and the product differentiation competition model. The result shows that under certain conditions, the showrooming intensifies the competition between offline and online retailers, while product differentiation strategy alleviates the competition between offline and online retailers to a certain extent and increases the profits of offline retailers. In addition, consumer learning behavior has an impact on retailers, where good Internet Word of Mouth (IWOM) has a positive impact on the profits of online retailers, while the number of online reviews has a positive impact on consumer learning. Some guidances are provided to alleviate the channel conflict between offline and online retailers and promote retail development.

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    Research on Group Buying Coordination Mechanism of Asymmetric Retailer's Drug Volume-based Procurement
    Songbo Guo,Xingzheng Ai,Li Zhong,Hua Tang
    2024, 32 (4):  208-217.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0471
    Abstract ( 93 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1002KB) ( 154 )   Save

    Volume-based procurement refers to the group-buying model in which the required quantity of procurement is announced in the bidding, and the price and corresponding production capacity are considered in the bidding. The drug volume-based procurement can promote the reform of the drug sector, enhance the attractiveness of bidding, effectively solve the problem of falsely high drug prices in China, give full play to the advantage of “quantity for price”, and play a positive role in improving patient welfare. At present, China’s centralized use of procurement prices for similar drugs has been carried out and has achieved remarkable results. However, in addition to prices, the improvement of the overall efficiency of the pharmaceutical supply chain is also a key issue in management practice and research. Therefore, when considering downstream asymmetric retailers competing, what kind of effective mechanism should the government design to achieve the optimization of the pharmaceutical supply chain system? In view of this, it aims to design a more effective coordination mechanism to thoroughly solve the problem of profit distribution in asymmetric retailer group buying in this paper. From the perspective of horizontal competition in the supply chain, a competitive supply chain model between a single drug manufacturer and two asymmetrically competing drug retailers is constructed, in which drug manufacturers dominate the supply chain. Since drug retailers in asymmetric competition jointly purchase drugs in a group-buying model, drug manufacturers provide drugs to retailers with different purchase volumes at wholesale prices, that is, the drug purchase prices of competitive asymmetric drug retailers are the same. The Stackelberg game sequence of the three is as follows. Firstly, a single drug manufacturer sets a wholesale price based on the principle of profit maximization. Secondly, two competing asymmetric drug retailers with different market sizes set their own retail prices.The results of the research show that (1) The price sensitivity of drugs and the degree of competition among drug retailers are the reference indicators for drug retailers’ group buying, that is, the selection of drug types in the “volume-based procurement” mode of purchase and sale. At the same time, drug manufacturers can formulate appropriate wholesale price and quantity discount rates are used to reduce the price of medicines and increase the benefits of medical medicines for patients. (2) Considering quantity discount contracts in the drug group-buying supply chain cannot achieve the coordination of asymmetric retailer group-buying, and pharmaceutical companies and smaller hospitals or pharmacies may be reluctant to participate. (3) In the supply chain of drug group purchases, pharmaceutical companies and hospitals (pharmacies) use a combination of quantity discounts and two pricing contracts, and drug manufacturers can adjust fixed costs to realize transfer payments of profits. Further the Pareto improvement of the profit of each member in the supply chain is realized, and a long-term effective drug group purchase mechanism is formed. The research results of this article supplement the theoretical research of group buying, and enrich the management enlightenment of group buying on drug procurement in the pharmaceutical supply chain.

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    The Manufacturer's Optimal Waste-disposal Policy Considering By-product Encroachment
    Li Jin,He Xu,Pin Zhou
    2024, 32 (4):  218-226.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0490
    Abstract ( 56 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (872KB) ( 55 )   Save

    By-product synergy (BPS) is a new and environmentally friendly way to process wastes in practice. A third-party processor with the BPS technology can help a manufacturer reduce the waste-disposal cost. However, the processor can convert wastes into useful commodities, which may have a weak substitution effect on the manufacturer’s prime product (i.e., a low-quality substitutable product). Considering the opposite two effects: the by-product encroachment effect brought by the BPS technology and the manufacturer’s waste-disposal cost reduction effect, a manufacturer’s optimal decisions (i.e., the prime product’s production quantity and waste-disposal policy) and a downstream processor’s optimal by-product production decision are analyzed.Consider a supply chain comprising an upstream manufacturer and a downstream waste processor. The manufacturer generates wastes in the prime production process. The processor with the BPS technology needs to purchase wastes at a unit wholesale price from the manufacturer and convert them into saleable by-products. The by-product has a lower quality than the prime product and can’t completely substitute the prime product. The interactive decisions between the manufacturer and the processer in a Stackelberg game are analyzed with the manufacturer serving as the leader.Firstly, the manufacturer determines the production quantity of the prime product and the wholesale price of wastes. Then the processor decides the by-product’s production quantity and these products are sold in the market thereafter. A backward induction method is used to solve this problem.The main results are as followings:a) The processor will buy all wastes when the wholesale price is relatively low and withdraw from the market when the wholesale price is relatively high. When the wholesale price is medium, the processor will buy only partial wastes.b) The manufacturer's waste-disposal policy depends on the prime product’s production quantity. When the quantity is relatively low, the manufacturer focuses more on the waste-disposal cost reduction. He will choose to sell all wastes to the processor (strategy F). When the quantity is relatively high, the manufacturer is willing to mitigate the competition in the market and don’t sell wastes to the processor (strategy N). However, if the quantity is medium, the manufacturer will sell a part of wastes (strategy P), which trades off the waste-disposal cost reduction and the competition effect caused by the by-product encroachment. c) The prime product’s production decision depends on the processor’s waste processing cost. When the BPS technology is not mature and the cost is high, the manufacturer doesn’t sell wastes to the processor because he is worried more about the intensive competition brought the by-product encroachment. With the improvement of BPS technology, the manufacturer begins to accept BPS and is willing to use the technology to reduce the cost.Therefore, the proportion of wastes sold to the processor gradually increases. Our research enriches the theory of BPS operations and the findings can help managers to better understand the interactive decisions of decentralized supply chains with the BPS Technology adoption.

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    Do Factors Driving Prosocial Behaviors Promote Fundraising in Medical Crowdfunding?
    Zhiqiang Jiang,Yiming Wang,Peng Wang,Weixing Zhou
    2024, 32 (4):  227-236.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0660
    Abstract ( 89 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (872KB) ( 70 )   Save

    Medical crowdfunding solves the problem of lacking medical expenses for poor patients with severe illnesses though online donations. Thus, finding the key factors to improve the fundraising performance is of great significance for patients and their family. Here, with the high-frequency data of 125,893 medical crowdfunding projects on Qingsong Chou in China, these factors are uncovered from the perspectives of creators, projects, backers, and prosocial behavior mechanisms. Differing from previous studies, the variables of prosocial behavior mechanisms are defined from the perspective of help-seeker’s characteristics, benefactor’s ability, and external environment. The linear regression model and logistic regression model are employed to check the validity oftheseprosocial factors.It is found that social network and social capital of creators and project quality have a postive effect on the fundraising performance. It is also found that the period of projects negatively affect on raising funds, and the goal of projects may decrease the probability of success and increase other project performance. More importantly, the factors driving prosocial behavior play a significant role in promoting money collection in the medical crowdfunding. Females, children and cancer patients who can attract more help are much easier to raise funds. Furthermore, projects from high-income areas and those created during the Spring Festival have a strong ability to attract funds. However, emphasising on the poverty will inhibit fundraising. In addition, the effectiveness of prosocial behavior mechanisms is further confirmed through robustness tests. It is found that the donating willingness of potential supporters only increases during the Spring Festival and children is the mostcrucial factorto improve the fundraise in comparison of females and cancer patients. These findings can not only provide effective strategies for project creators to improve fundraising, but also provide new thoughts for relieving the regional imbalance of online donations and promoting the sound development of medical crowdfunding.

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    Evolutionary Path Analysis of Multi-channel Epidemic Information Release of Major Infectious Diseases
    Fengjiao Chen,Dehai Liu
    2024, 32 (4):  237-249.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0793
    Abstract ( 72 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (1007KB) ( 128 )   Save

    Public information release and response to public concerns are key links in the prevention and control of major infectious diseases.The release of epidemic information requires the coordination and cooperation of government departments, medical experts, and the public. Promoting the linkage between government departments and medical experts in the early stages of the epidemic to quickly obtain and share real-time information plays an important role in curbing the spread of the epidemic. However, due to the differences in national conditions and social environment there are great differences in epidemic information release systems in various countries. Government departments and medical experts should timely adjust various epidemic prevention and control strategies, including information release, according to the development trend of the epidemic situation.According to the different subjects and channels of epidemic information release, four epidemic information release modes are summarized in the environment of highly uncertain information in the early stage of epidemic, namely linkage mode, government monopoly mode, expert disclosure mode and delay mode. Then the evolutionary game model of multi-channel information release of government departments and medical experts is constructed.Firstly, the Nash equilibrium was solved by a one-time simultaneous game to analyze the optimal effort level and the optimal income of both parties under each information release mode in the short term. Then, both sides continuously adjusted their information release strategies in a long period of time and analyzed the evolution path and equilibrium conditions of each epidemic information release mode.Finally, the influence of correlation coefficient on the evolution of information release mode is analyzed through a case.The results show that the trade-off between the short-term benefits of social stability maintenance and the long-term benefits of epidemic prevention and control is the key factor affecting evolution.There are multiple evolutionary paths in the information release mode. Increasing the long-term benefits of epidemic prevention and control is conducive to the linkage mode becoming an evolutionary equilibrium.In addition, the information release model also has multiple evolution paths such as “government monopoly” and “expert disclosure”, and it is necessary to avoid the multiple equilibrium of “government monopoly” and “expert disclosure” or the reciprocating fluctuation caused by information release disorder.As the leading force in the fight against epidemic diseases, government departments have taken a series of measures to promote the formation of a joint force between government departments and medical experts in the fight against epidemic diseases by improving the construction of epidemic information release system, reducing the cost of fighting epidemic diseases, changing the working mode of “tightening inside and loosening outside”, giving professionals a higher tolerance, and strengthening the monitoring and prediction of epidemic information, so as to improve the authority, accuracy and efficiency of epidemic information release.In case selection, the epidemic response measures and relevant data of China and the United States are selected to study the impact of cost coefficient and synergistic benefit coefficient on the evolution of information release mode.Four information release modes are summarized in the context of high information uncertainty at the early stage of the epidemic, then the optimal decision-making and the long-term evolution path of different information release modes combining the short-term benefits of social stability maintenance and long-term benefits of epidemic prevention and control are analyzed. Relevant research has certain theoretical reference significance for further improving the information release of major emergencies.

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    Order Splitting Optimization Method of Multi-item Order Fulfillment in Online Supermarkets with Multi-warehouses in a City
    Shan Zhu,Bo Zhang,Xiangpei Hu
    2024, 32 (4):  250-260.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0799
    Abstract ( 64 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (834KB) ( 70 )   Save

    In recent years online supermarkets such as JD.com have developed greatly in the e-commerce environment. Order splitting has been a common phenomenon in practical operations due to two main features of the online supermarket: one is the multi-warehouse network in one big city, the other is the vast multi-item customer orders. Serious order splitting problem intrigues some challenges such as high delivery disturbance, high fulfillment cost. The complexity of this problem is that the solution space will be large because of the explosive increased number of splitting solutions with the increase in the number of orders and the number of items in each order. Synthetically applying the theories of combinatorial optimization and clustering analysis, the order splitting optimization problem is investigated to minimize the order splitting fulfillment cost. For the sake of decreasing the solution space, the product link-based hybrid heuristic large neighborhood search algorithm (PLBH-LNS) is proposed. The effectiveness and practicality of the PLBH-LNS algorithm are verified using a series of generated small-scale datasets and a real large-scale dataset from an online retailer in China. The results show that, compared with the myopic order splitting strategy in practical operations, the PLBH-LNS algorithm could decrease the average order fulfillment cost by 22.48%. A new method and idea for the online supermarket order splitting in e-commerce is provided, which also supports the order fulfillment decision for decreasing the order splitting.

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    The Impact of Knowledge Transfer among Overlapped Projects on the Program Clustering
    Qing Yang,Yingxin Bi,Mingxing Chang,Tao Yao
    2024, 32 (4):  261-270.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2274
    Abstract ( 54 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (914KB) ( 31 )   Save

    Concurrent execution and knowledge transfer among projects are fundamental characteristics of multi-project management, especially for the new product development (NPD) project. The accumulated knowledge and experience can be transferred from one project to other projects in the overlapping and concurrent process, thus improving the performance of the program. However, existing research on multi-project management don’t take the influence of knowledge transfer and learning among projects into account, as well as the clustering analysis for multi-project. Using the dependency structure matrix (DSM), knowledge transfer theory and two-stage clustering algorithm, a new multi-project management method is proposed. It attempts to solve three key problems: 1) how to measure the knowledge maturity and acquirement model of projects; 2) how to analyze the interaction relationship among projects through knowledge transfer and learning; 3) how to cluster projects into programs via the improved two-stage DSM clustering algorithm.Hence, the knowledge transfer and learning process among projects is analyzed from the perspective of overlapping which is the basic characteristic of NPD projects. First, the knowledge transfer and learning among projects is analyzed in the overlapping and concurrent process. Then, the knowledge maturity model is built for transferring knowledge projects and knowledge acquirement model for receiving knowledge projects in the concurrent process using the DSM method. Next, the interdependency strength models resulted from knowledge transfer among projects is established. Additionally, by taking account the “knowledge transfer-learning” process, quantitatively measure model for the shorten time is built using the improved learning curve model. Further, a two-stage program DSM clustering algorithm with maximizing “Added Internal and External Average Crashed Time Ration” criterion is defined as an objective function. Finally, an industrial example is provided to illustrate the proposed model and method. The results indicate that the clustered program can enhance the dependency strength and shorten the time of the program, reducing the total coordination costs, and significantly improve the performance of program management.

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    Identification of Key Quality Characteristics in Multistage Manufacturing Process Based on PLS-Aenet
    Ning Wang,Shuke Tian,Yumin Liu,Zheyun Zhao
    2024, 32 (4):  271-278.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1658
    Abstract ( 77 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (647KB) ( 54 )   Save

    The complex multistage manufacturing process contains many quality characteristics which are characterized by high dimensional multicollinearity and group effect. In the actual production process, subjected to the cost and technology constraints, all quality characteristics cannot be monitored. How to identify the key variables from a lot of quality characteristics with high dimensional multicollinearity and group effect has become increasingly necessary. To solve this problem, The Partial Least Squares- Adaptive Elastic Net (PLS-Aenet) method is applied to model and analyze the complex multistage manufacturing process and identify the key quality characteristics of the process. The PLS-Aenet method is used and the state space idea is integrated to model and identify the key quality characteristics of complex multistage manufacturing processes, and the specific steps are given to identify the key quality characteristics based on the PLS-Aenet Net method. Finally, the applicability and effectiveness of the PLS-Aenet Net method and the variable selection method such as Ridge Regression、Lasso、PLS-Lasso、Elastic Net method in the identification of key quality characteristics of the complex multistage manufacturing process are compared through simulation analysis. The simulation and real case results show that the PLS-Aenet method achieves a more effective performance when the key quality characteristics are strongly correlated with each other.

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    Evolutionary Game Analysis of Cooperative Innovation of Automakers under Dual-credit Policy
    Dan Zhao,Xiaochen Yan,Heping Wang,Yan Li
    2024, 32 (4):  279-292.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1443
    Abstract ( 107 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (1061KB) ( 127 )   Save

    In order to adapt to the development of the automobile industry under the conversion of new and old kinetic energy in China, the five ministries have implemented dual-credit policy. However, a single market mechanism has not met what government expects. Therefore, a dynamic evolutionary game model of cooperative innovation of blade electric vehicle companies and oil-fueled automotive companies is constructed under or without government supervision. The impacts of factors such as NEV credit ratio, standard vehicle calculation method, and reward and punishment mechanism on the evolution of cooperative innovation are analyzed. The research shows that under the dual-credit policy, appropriately raising the requirement of NEV credit ratio helps blade electric vehicle companies quickly respond to market cooperation needs, which avoids the loss of market share caused by slow response. Besides, the correlation among various factors should be fully considered. Enhancing multiplicative coefficient contributes to innovative subjects evolving in the direction of active cooperation, which promotes the market diffusion of blade electric vehicles. Under the combined guidance of government supervision and dual-credit policy, moderately enhancing degree of awards and punishments can effectively encourage innovative subjects to evolve in the direction of active cooperation. Also, promoting function of punishment mechanism is more powerful.

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    Optimization of Emission Reducing and Pricing Decisions Based on Differentiated Green Preference and Carbon Constraints under Information Asymmetry
    Jing Li,Jiaping Xie,Aisaiti Gulizhaer
    2024, 32 (4):  293-305.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1185
    Abstract ( 99 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (1032KB) ( 213 )   Save

    The rapid development of human society brings about the continuous deterioration of the environment, leading many countries put the green development on the agenda. Enterprises should concurrently satisfy the carbon policy constraints and consumer behavior in order to achieve sustained development. Therefore, it is important to optimize the pricing and emission reduction strategy for firms and the carbon policy decision-making for government under various market structures.Based on consumer preference differentiation and information asymmetry, a two-stage game theory model consists of strategic consumers, emission-constraint enterprise and government is built: Firstly, the enterprise’s decisions on emission reducing and pricing is optimized by adverse selection method; Then the carbon policies are designed which can improve both economic and environmental benefits for government; Ultimately, the results are simulated under three market structures.(1) When there are more green consumers in the market, the carbon trading price increases with the growth of green preference, while when less green consumers, the trading price decreases; (2) The carbon reduction degree will be raised with the improvement of reduction technology and the aggravation of information barrier. When marginal reduction cost is high, the government should increase carbon quota, reduce carbon price or implement stricter labeling policy. (3) When the government implements carbon policies for high-pollution enterprise, the carbon quota should be reduced with the aim of higher reduction degree and less product differentiation. Otherwise, the carbon constraint should be relaxed and trading price should be increased with the goal of higher social welfare. (4) In order to stimulate emission reduction, the government should raise the carbon trading price in a low-preference and normal-preference market, and reduce the price in a similar-preference market. On the other hand, in order to optimize the enterprise’s profit, the government should control the trading price higher or lower than a certain value in a low-preference market, increase the carbon price in a similar-preference market and decrease the price in a normal-preference market.

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    Four-dimensional Evolutionary Games Analysis for Local Governments Atmospheric Governance Considering Multiple Behavioral Strategies
    Yi Jing,Liu Cao,Wenqiu Zhang
    2024, 32 (4):  306-314.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1005
    Abstract ( 69 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (824KB) ( 55 )   Save

    Atmospheric pollution governance has experienced three stages including negative governance, local governance and collaborative governance. The systematic air protection policy was not formulated and the attitude of air pollution control was negative in early days due to the lack of awareness of air protection. With the promulgation of “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Law” in 1987, the territorial governance model was formed.The governance idea of regional air pollution joint prevention and control was formally proposed in 2010 to solve the regional and compound air pollution which territorial governance is unable to deal with and the related work has also been continuously promoted in recent years.Local governments are regarded as the main force of air pollution control because of their authority and regionality. The effectiveness of atmospheric governance is directly affected by their behavioral choices. By constructing a binary group to improve the classical evolutionary game method, local governments’ multiple behavioral strategies including negative governance, territorial governance and collaborative governance are depicted. Taking local government 1 as an example, the binary group is denoted as (wx),where w represents the probability of local government 1 actively controlling air pollution, x represents the probability of it participating in coordination between governments, 0<w<10<x<1. Accordingly, the probability of local government 1 choosing collaborative governance is wx, the probability of choosing territorial governance is w(1-x) and the probability of choosing passive governance is 1-w. The binary group (1,1) corresponds to collaborative governance, (1,0) corresponds to territorial governance, and (0, x) corresponds to passive governance. On this basis, a four-dimensional evolutionary game model of local governments in regional air pollution control is established, the system stability state and evolutionary trajectory are analyzed and the impacts of different factors on the collaborative governance relationship are mainly discussed in this paper.The results show both direct governance cost and collaborative incremental cost have a negative impact on collaborative governance relationship, and the negative impact of collaborative governance cost is greater than that of direct governance cost. Both direct governance benefit and collaborative addition benefit have a positive impact on collaborative governance relationship, and the positive impact of direct governance benefit is linearly stable, while that of collaborative addition benefit will decrease marginally. Ecological compensation between local governments is not necessarily conducive to collaborative governance relationship. Only by enhancing supervision and improving the probability of random inspection can ecological compensation really play a promoting role.

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    The Evolutionary Game Logic of the Improvement of Quality and Safety Awareness of Food Enterprises ——Based on the Repeated Purchase Behavior of Consumers in the Dairy Industry
    Bo Li,Chunyan Zhang,Junbiao Zhang
    2024, 32 (4):  315-324.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1521
    Abstract ( 72 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (1514KB) ( 52 )   Save

    Under the new development pattern of “double reunification”, my country's food safety issues have received higher social attention. In the environment of social governance, the dairy industry still has many hidden safety hazards. The lack of awareness of quality and safety in food companies is the fundamental reason for the existence of risks. In order to explore the internal driving force for the improvement of the quality and safety awareness of food companies, this article is based on the two-phase consumer purchase market, through the analysis of the evolutionary game process of dairy companies, source suppliers, government regulatory agencies, self-media, and consumers. Construct a micro-equilibrium model of dairy enterprises under the profit-seeking motive. On this basis, the economic and social benefits brought about by changes in corporate quality and safety awareness are further observed through market simulation. The research results show that: ①In a certain social co-governance market environment, the improvement of quality and safety awareness has a positive effect on the market profit of food companies. ②For food companies that adopt technological innovation and development strategies, improving quality and safety awareness will bring higher economic benefits. ③There are roles of complementarity and substitution between social supervision subjects, and the complementary relationship between government departments and self-media>substitution relationship. ④ The elasticity of consumer demand, the increase in government supervision and the influence of the media will expand the economic benefits brought by enterprises to enhance their awareness of quality and safety.

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    Stability of Food Safety Social Co-governance Evolutionary Game with Multi-agent Participation
    Song Yang,Yancai Zhang,Aifeng Wang
    2024, 32 (4):  325-334.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1008
    Abstract ( 94 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (1071KB) ( 105 )   Save

    Food safety is related to people's health and life safety, and the 20th report of the Communist Party of China proposes to strengthen food and drug safety supervision. On the one hand, information asymmetry leads to market failure, on the other hand, China's food enterprises are generally characterized by small scale, a large number, and low concentration, which also leads to government supervision failure. Therefore, in the case of market failure and government failure, third-party supervision is needed. Food safety involves multiple stakeholders, each of which has its interest demands, and there are often contradictions and conflicts among different stakeholders. So, how do different stakeholders choose strategies in food safety governance? Can they achieve the desired stable equilibrium? How do different game players dynamically adjust their equilibrium strategies?A game model composed of local government, food enterprises, and the public is built. Secondly, the equilibrium point and evolutionary stability strategy of the system under different situations are analyzed by using the replicative dynamic equation. Then, numerical simulation is used to verify the stability strategies in the three situations, the influence of different initial states on the system evolution results is analyzed, and the influence of the change of main parameter values on the evolution path of each participant is also analyzed.The results show that there are three stable equilibrium strategies in the social co-governance game system of food safety, and the system evolution equilibrium evolves to different stable equilibrium strategies with the change of illegal profits of food enterprises, government punishment intensity, and government reward to the public. The intensity of government punishment, the cost of government supervision, and the illegal profits of food enterprises are the main factors that affect the evolution path of participants' behavior. The three stable equilibrium strategies correspond to different stages of the evolution of China's food safety governance system. In order to alleviate the risk of food safety governance, the government should increase the punishment, reduce the cost of supervision, strengthen the self-discipline of enterprises, guide the public to participate in governance, and construct the social co-governance pattern of multi-subject mutual coordination.

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