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20 October 2016, Volume 24 Issue 10 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Dynamic Dependence Between International Oil, Natural Gas and Exchange Market Based on a New Time-varying Optimal Copula Model JI Qiang, LIU Bing-yue, FAN Ying 2016, 24 (10):  1-9.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.001 Abstract ( 1465 )   PDF (2318KB) ( 1086 )   Save In this paper, a new time-varying optimal copula model is proposed to precisely identify the optimal dependence structure of bivariate time series at every time point. In this model, half-rotated copulas, i.e. CR1G(u,v;θ)=v-COG(1-u,v;θ) and CR2G(u,v;θ)=u-COG(1-u,v;θ), are constructed to capture the asymmetric negative dependence, especially for the negative extreme dependence, i.e. lower-upper tail τLU(α)=Pr(X< FX-1(α)|Y >FY-1(1-α)) and upper-lower tail dependence τLU(α)=Pr(X >FX-1(1-α)|Y< FY-1(α)) for a small α, e.g. 0.05. Meanwhile, the distribution-free test for independence is introduced to verify the dependent relationship and reduce the computation time. At last, the time-varying optimal copula model is employed to analyse the dynamic dependence between energy markets, i.e. crude oil and natural gas markets, and exchange market. It is found that for Brent-USDX pair the dependence is significantly negative, the proportion of half-rotated Gumbel copula is larger than that of the original Gumbel or rotated Gumbel, the lower-upper or upper-lower tail dependence is obviously larger than the upper-upper or lower-lower tail dependence especially in the crisis period, and above empirical results for GAS-USDX pair are similar but not very remarkable. However, the dependence between Brent and GAS is positive and the upper-upper or lower-lower tail dependence is larger than lower-upper or upper-lower tail dependence. Meanwhile, the types of dependence structureacross markets vary over time and that emergencies are usually the major cause of sudden changes in the dependence structure. Resulas also show that the TVOC model captures the dynamic characteristics of the direction and intensity of the dependence as well as the dynamic characteristics of the types of dependence structure. In particular, the TVOC model canbe employed to predict the copula-dependence structure in a newway, which provides an analytical tool for market investors and risk managers to adjust their portfolio strategy, hedge the investment risk and guard against risk spillover and even a financial contagion. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Coordination Mechanism of V2G Reserve Contract Based on B-S Option Pricing Model HUANG Shou-jun, YANG Jun, CHEN Qi-an 2016, 24 (10):  10-21.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.002 Abstract ( 1451 )   PDF (1579KB) ( 1069 )   Save Based on the risk-neutral transaction characteristics of V2G reserve market and common contract price mechanism of "buying price floor protected,price fluctuation in line with market conditions" in practice,the electric vehicle user's reserved electricity decision models before and after the grid corporation implementing option to hedge are constructed. The feedback equilibrium strategies and optimal benefits in Stackelberg game and cooperative game are comparatively analyzed. The results indicate that only simply adopting protective contract price mechanism makes the grid corporation undertake full transaction risk in V2G reserve market,thereby cannot prevent opportunistic behavior when the market quotation is not good. On this basis,the grid corporation chooses to purchase option for avoiding the risks brought by V2G market price fluctuations,but the equilibrium profit in decentralized decision is less than the optimal profit in integrated decision. For this,the perfect coordination of the cooperation system,and the Pareto improvement of both channel sides' expected profits are further achieved by introducing the contract mechanism of "B-S option pricing,reservation collaboration and margin". The analytical relationships among the equilibrium reservation collaboration coefficient of V2G reserve,transaction margin and contract electricity price are developed,and the results of numerical analysis verify the feasibility of the proposed models and the theoretical analysis. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study of Firm Specific Information Disclosure on the Price Variation with Nonparametric Intraday Jumps Detection in High Frequency Data LIU Zhi-dong, YANG Jing-yi 2016, 24 (10):  22-34.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.003 Abstract ( 1316 )   PDF (1037KB) ( 1406 )   Save Using an intraday LM non-parameter jump detection technique in a multivariate framework, firm-specific information disclosure and its impact on stock price reaction are explored in this paper. The three common avenues are linked for information disclosure:analyst recommendations, earnings announcements, and management guidance with jump in price, the sample consists of stocks listed on the Shanghai 180 index for the two year period between January 2012 and December 2013. After controlling for confounding events and through multivariate logistic regression based on two different models, empirical research indicates that management guidance are more likely than either earnings announcements or analyst recommendations to cause a stock price jump, and analyst recommendations are not so appear informative in China. Meanwhile, although the paper can reveal that relative importance of recommendations, earnings announcements and guidance to investment decision, but those information collectively explain only 20% of all firm-specific jumps calculated using the nonparametric intraday jumps detection in high frequency data. Even considering the impact of macroeconomic news releases or industry information on volatility and prices, the rate only increase to 40%. Thus, more research needs to be done to identify the types of other unknown events that cause jumps in the market. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing Catastrophe Bonds under the Doubly Stochastic Compound Poisson Losses and Numerical Simulation MA Zong-gang, ZOU Xin-yue, MA Chao-qun 2016, 24 (10):  35-43.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.004 Abstract ( 1260 )   PDF (1751KB) ( 1325 )   Save Due to an increasing risk of extreme losses caused by value concentration and climate change as well as due to a limited (and volatile) capacity of traditional reinsurance and retrocession markets. Against this background, Alternative risk transfer (ART) intends to provide additional (re)insurance coverage by transferring insurance risks to the capital market, which offers considerably higher capacities and can thus help satisfying the demand. catastrophe risk bonds are by far the most successful and importantART financial innovation,hence have large potential in China. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)(2013) projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events in the 21st century and the occurrence and severity of abnormal climate change presents an irregular cycle with an upward trend. To capture the two catastrophic characteristics, a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black DermanToy(BDT) intensity is proposed to model the arrival process for catastrophic risk events. The empirical results reveal the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the mean-reverting arrival process due to its larger E and d, and smaller RMSE, MAE and U. Second,to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, the Block Maxima Method(BMM) in extreme value theory(EVT) is adopted to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic risk loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using the graphics technology, the goodness-of-fit test, and model evaluation, it is found that the Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution is the best fit. Furthermore, a pricing formula is derived for catastrophe bonds in a stochastic interest rates environment with the losses following a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process using risk-neutralized measure method. Next, the parameters of the pricing model are estmated and calibrated using the catastrophe loss data provided by the Property Claim Services(PCS) Unit of the Insurance Service Office(ISO) from 1985 to 2010 and 12-Month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) based on U.S. Dollar. Finally, simulation results verify our model predictions and demonstrate how financial risks and catastrophic risks affect the prices of catastrophe bonds. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Closed-loop Supply Chain Logistics Strategy and Compensation Mechanism Considering Two-way Leading Dissimilarity ZHANG Fu-an, DA Qing-li, GONG Yan-de 2016, 24 (10):  44-51.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.005 Abstract ( 1315 )   PDF (1644KB) ( 910 )   Save At present, closed-loop supply chain is studied under the condition that forward leading enterprise and reverse leading enterprise are the same. However, forward supply chain enterprise attaches importance to product quality, reverse supply chain enterprise attaches importance to recycling channels, and logistics strategy of forward supply chain is not necessarily suitable for the reverse supply chain. Based on this, the dominant model of supply chain is divided into forward manufacturers dominated and reverse retailer dominated, logistics strategy is divided into forward logistics strategy and reverse logistics strategy. By building model and using game theory, the pricing strategy, subsidy mechanism and the stability of different closed-loop supply chain are discussed. Conditions of supply chain stability are obtained by choosing logistics strategy and subsidy mechanism for dominated enterprise. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Optimization of Quality Control in four Levels of Supply Chain Based on the Two Kinds of Strategies SHEN Qiang, YANG Wei-min, LIU Xiao-bing, HOU Yun-xian 2016, 24 (10):  52-59.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.006 Abstract ( 1282 )   PDF (1537KB) ( 955 )   Save Considering the structure of supply chain in practice and Shortcomings of quality control study in four-levels of supply chain present. In this paper, the product quality control problem in four-levels of the supply chain, which consist of suppliers, manufacturers, distributors and customers is studized based on the stackblerg game mode. Considering the uncertainty of customer demand,the variation of the product quality level and supply chain's profit with coordination of initial payment proportion and delay in payment between the manufacturers and distributors are analyzed. Also the optimal quality control levels of the manufacturers and suppliers are solved using the principle of optimization, after the simulation, the result shows:The quality levels of the supplier and supply chain will be affected by the coordination strategies between nonproductive parts indirectly. Whether increase the initial payment proportion or shorten the time of delay in payment, the quality levels of the manufacturer and supplier will be coordinated, especially, the quality level of raw material. However, both of the benefit variations of other subjects caused by quality control and the influence of the consumer demand because of the product market price changes must be considered, when the two strategies are used. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain two Part Tariff Contract with Fairness Preference and Carbon Emissions LIU Qi-you, ZHANG Cheng-ke, BIN Ning, ZHOU Ya, SHI Ping 2016, 24 (10):  60-68.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.007 Abstract ( 1447 )   PDF (962KB) ( 1371 )   Save In the low carbon economy, carbon emission rights, as a scarce, tradable resource, have radically overturned the competition law, cost structure and profit model for traditional firms. It is also regarded as key object of supply chain contract optimization and coordination. For supply chains, firstly, in decentralized decision mode, dual marginalization effect easily occurs due to local optimization based on players' individual interests. Secondly, for most research concerning supply chain contract coordination and optimization, full rationality is always assumed for decision makers. However, in real management practices, full rationality to maximize its profit is not the case at all. Partial rationality preference such as pursuit of fairness is the same prominent in reality. With the help of game theory, a supply chain composed of one manufacturer and one retailer is established considering their fairness preference from a low carbon view.Respectively with and without fairness preference, two types of pricing contracts proposed by the manufacturer when facing favorable and unfavorable unfair profit allocations are studied to see if coordination could be realized or not. And related issues including coordination parameters setting is also touched on when coordination reached for the supply chain. Results show that both pricing contracts could coordinate the supply chain if the manufacturer prefers fairness and meanwhile, the retailer takes maximal profit as its goal. The utility of manufacturer and retailer's profit relate only to fairness benefit parameter of the manufacturer, when the manufacturer faces unfavorable and unfair profit allocations. When the manufacturer meets favorable but unfair allocation, comparison between negative utility of such allocation and fair benefits the manufacturer hopes to get works in the supply chain profit allocation. When 1/1+μm< βm< 1, the manufacturer will monopoly the whole profit in the supply chain and the retailer's profit is zero without any interests driving it. But such a case seldom happens although both contracts can work. When fairness is preferred by both sides, when αm >1+αr/αrμmμr-αr-1 in competitive supply chains, the retailer gets negative utility with wholesale price higher than its marginal cost. Under such circumstances, the retailer has no incentives to join both pricing contracts, thus failing to coordinate the supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Incentive Mechanism of Closed-Loop Supply Chain under Double Information Asymmetry WANG Wen-bin, ZHAO Xue-juan, ZHANG Peng, LU Zhen-ye, CHENG Ming-bao 2016, 24 (10):  69-77.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.008 Abstract ( 1465 )   PDF (1722KB) ( 1337 )   Save Aimed at the closed-loop supply chain constituted by the remanufacturer, the collector and consumers in the market of waste electronic products, this paper researches that how the remanufacturer handles the adverse selection problem with the collector's collecting ability hidden and deals with the moral hazard problem with his effort level hidden. Though using incentive theory, how does the remanufacturer design the incentive mechanism, guiding the collector to collect the waste electronic products under the dual information asymmetry, is studied in this paper. The fact is that only a part of products collected can be used to remanufactured, so the incentive mechanism model of closed-loop supply chain under agent framework is constructed, according to the principal-agent theory, by using the principle of information screening. In addition, the model is solved, and the influence of the related factors on the degree of effort is discussed. Besides, through numerical simulation, we further validate the effect of related factors on screening contract parameters and the expected profit. The results showed that royalty coefficient of the number of remanufactured products, which low collecting ability collector gains, is downward distortion. To get retained profits, he has to report true type of collecting ability. The collector, with high collecting capacity, not only can get retained profits, but also can have additional information rent. The remanufacturer, signing high ability collector, can obtain more profit than that, signing the low ability collector. With the increase of the proportion of high capacity in the market, the manufacturer can obtain more profits by signing high ability collector. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study of the Reverse Logistics Quantity and Its Inventory Cost in Supermarket Chain Distribution Center WU Peng-Fei, DENG Ai-min, YANG Cong-cong, TIAN Hao 2016, 24 (10):  78-85.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.009 Abstract ( 1533 )   PDF (996KB) ( 1081 )   Save It is rarely known that the reverse logistics quantity in supermarket chain distribution center extraordinary takes up a large number of inventory space and capital cost. In this paper the causes of reverse logistics quantity in supermarket chain distribution center constituted by five categories returns——commercial return, terminal return, repair return, packaging return and production return are thoroughly analyzed; and the calculation model of the reverse logistics quantity in supermarket chain distribution center, which predicts on the coefficient of exponential smoothing and includes amplification factors, such as trend smooth coefficient, seasonal smoothing coefficient, return rate, damage rate, defect rate and so on, is built up and its inventory cost calculating model of reverse logistics quantity in supermarket chain distribution center is further deduced. Then, through the numerical example the reverse logistics quantity and its inventory cost in supermarket chain distribution center are calculated and the degree of influence of the reverse logistics inventory cost under different parameters is illustrated, and then the validity and practicability of the model are demonstrated. The ways to reduce the inventory cost of reverse logistics quantity in supermarket chain distribution center are given. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing and Promotion Strategies in the Dual-channel Supply Chain Considering the Free-riding Behavior of Consumers PU Xu-Jin, GONG Lei 2016, 24 (10):  86-94.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.010 Abstract ( 1471 )   PDF (2045KB) ( 1673 )   Save With the rapid development of the Internet, manufacturers are increasingly adopting a dual-channel approach to selling products, (i.e., a traditional retail channel and an online direct channel). Consequently, consumers can experience a product in a brick-and-mortar store while shopping online for the cheapest price. Using the two-stage optimization technique and the Stackelberg game, we examine the impact of consumer free-riding on sales effort and prices in a centralized and a decentralized dual-channel supply chain. We find that both the sales effort and the whole supply chain profit are much lower in the decentralized setting than in the centralized setting. Moreover, the sales effort and the whole supply chain profit decrease as the rate of free-riding increases in both centralized and decentralized settings. In order to improve supply chain efficiency, we propose a certain cost-sharing contract. This contract is proved to lead to a Pareto improvement for both supply chain partners. The numerical study demonstrates how the proposed contract is applied as well as how it improves supply chain efficiency. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Research of Virtual Enterprise's Supply Chain Formation Mechanism Bases on The Classical Grounded Theory JIA Xu-dong, HENG Liang 2016, 24 (10):  95-104.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.011 Abstract ( 1335 )   PDF (1857KB) ( 1784 )   Save In the management academic community, the research of real enterprise's supply chain has developed a knowledge system. However, the supply chain research which is related with virtual enterprise is just getting started. Typical virtual enterprises are selected as research cases, the classical grounded theory methodology is used, the method of cognitive map is integrated,and the first-hand interview contents are applied as data in order to deeply research the dynamic mechanism of supply chain in virtual enterprises. In the classical grounded methodology, there is a need to code from the first-hand interview data of the targeted enterprises with the coding technology, to explore the logic line in the special operation phenomenon to find out the hidden principles. Additionally, the cognitive method is applied to interlink the factors of formatting the virtual enterprise's supply chain in the stage of open coding. Another side, it is founded that the supply chain formation process of a virtual enterprise changes from simplicity to complexity under the effect of the brand influence force and the supply chain control force, so as to cause the supply chain configuration to change from "Building Blocks" to the "Building Blocks" Model. Above all, the discoveries and conclusions of this article fill the gap of the research between the virtual enterprise and supply chain, and put forward the foundation models for the further research. In the practice, guidance be provided for the enterprises to choose the right way to turn into a virtual enterprise and make its supply chain configuration better to obtain better performance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Optimal Strategies in a Closed-loop Supply Chain under NYOP and Posted Price Mechanism LI Jian-bin, ZHU Meng-ping, DAI Bin 2016, 24 (10):  105-116.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.012 Abstract ( 1270 )   PDF (1908KB) ( 1077 )   Save In the recycling and remanufacturing industry, used items are often recycled by a posted price (PP) mechanism. Recently, some online platforms of resource recycling also permit the seller to use the name-your-own-price (NYOP) mechanism, meaning that used items will only be recycled when the bid proposed by the seller is no larger than an opaque reserve price predetermined by the recycling agent. However, in the academic field of closed-loop supply chain, thus far, few researches have been conducted on investigating the NYOP mechanism. In this paper, it's aimed to investigate the optimal strategies in a closed-loop supply chain under three pricing mechanisms:posted price, single-bid NYOP and double-bid NYOP when consumers can additionally propose a second bid if the first bid fails. A Stackelberg game is employed to analyze consumers' and the manufacturer's strategies where the latter acts as the leader and the former act as a follower. Based on the nonlinear optimization, the optimal bid for the consumer and the optimal reserve price for the recycling agent under aforementioned three pricing mechanisms are obtained. Furthermore, the optimal strategies among those three pricing mechanisms are compared in terms of profit as well. Result shows that the double-bid mechanism brings about more expected utility for consumers, however, from the perspective of the manufacturer's profit, the double-bid NYOP mechanism is an inferior strategy. In addition, whether the manufacture adopts the single-bid NYOP mechanism or the posted price mechanism depends on saved cost due to remanufacturing activities and the upper bound of the reserve price. If the upper bound of the reserve price is lower than a certain threshold, as the saved cost increases, the optimal strategy is converted from PP mechanism to the single-bid NYOP mechanism. However, if the upper bound is higher than the threshold, PP mechanism is always the optimal strategy. Moreover, we investigate the effects of key parameters such as the ratio of green consumers on the manufacturer's profit through numerical studies, and obtain some managerial insights including that the manufacturer should reveal more information such as a lower upper bound of the reserve price to the consumers. Our research enriches the study of consumers' behavior in the closed-loop supply chain, and provides a reasonable explanation to observations in the recycling industry. These results can also help the manufacturer to choose the optimal pricing mechanism to enhance his profit as well as environmental performance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Information Sharing Model in Supply Chain Based on the Psychological Endurance Hypothesis GAO Xi-rong, LUO Yang 2016, 24 (10):  117-123.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.013 Abstract ( 1357 )   PDF (1326KB) ( 1114 )   Save Against expected utility theory and prospect theory's neglect of endowment, psychological endurance hypothesis is proposed, and a short slab optimizing model of information sharing in supply chain that taking firm's information-sharing value index as the decisionvariable is built in this paper. The model implies that the information sharing in the whole supply chain would be achieved eventually by boosting the information-sharing value index of the last firm in the chain. The results also showed that the firm's information sharing-value index has a positive relationship with the information sharing success rate,but a negative relationship with the cost elasticity of psychological vulnerability, the social risk level and the information sharing cost. The contribution of this paper is to draw the farebox recovery ratio into the constraint factors of the investment value, emphasizing the decisive role of the investment return or profit margin; and to introduce the concept of psychological endurance threshold and point out that the investment behavior has different performance between under and above the threshold.These findings could be used to design the policiesfor promoting the information sharing in supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research of Amelioration Items Joint Purchasing Decision With Non-instantaneous replenishment ZHANG Yun-feng, WANG Yong, GONG Ben-gang, Cheng Yong-hong 2016, 24 (10):  124-132.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.014 Abstract ( 1367 )   PDF (907KB) ( 1046 )   Save Joint purchasing tends to make the order quantity multiply, and enjoys the suppliers' price discount more easily, so the retailers favor this purchasing mode. During the period of holding, the ameliorating items will cause ameliorating phenomenon, and lead to ameliorating cost which affects the purchasing decision of the retailers. Moreover, it's common that the suppliers provide non-instantaneous replenishment mode in our daily life. Considering two-echelon supply chain of ameliorating items consisting of a single supplier and multiple retailers, the suppliers provide price discounts and supply in non-instantaneous replenishment mode. The function of cost per unit time of independent purchasing and joint purchasing for the retailers are set up separately,the cost per unit time of the two purchasing modes are compared in this paper, and the suitable condition that the joint purchasing is superior to the independent purchasing is gotten. In joint purchasing, it must be assured that the cost per unit time allocated by the purchasing alliance cannot be higher than the cost per unit time of retailers' dependent purchasing. Otherwise, the purchasing alliance will be disrupted. The alliance cost of joint purchasing is treated as the allocation object, multiple persons cooperative game theory is applied to transforming the cost allocation of joint purchasing problem into multiple persons cooperation game problem, and the model of cost allocation is established based on the Least Core method. Then the process of cost allocation is demonstrated according to a numerical example, the sensitivity analysis of the ordering parameters and the cost parameters for the net ameliorating rate are given, and the allocation results of Shapely Value Method, Simplified Minimum Costs-Remaining Savings Method, Two Programming Method and Least Core Method are compared. The research conclusion will provide a theoretical reference for the ameliorating items' joint purchasing and cost allocation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Production-Marketing Coordination under Demand and Leadtime Uncertainty YE Tao-feng, DA Qing-li, XU Xuan-guo 2016, 24 (10):  133-140.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.015 Abstract ( 1228 )   PDF (1041KB) ( 1110 )   Save A make-to-oder firm which satisfies the demand that is dependent on both price and quoted leadtime is considered in this paper. The firm operates in the decentralized framework in which pricing decision is delegated to the marketing department and replenishment and leadtime quotation decisions are delegated to the production department. The interactions between marketing and production are modelled as a Nash game and the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium decisions are demonstrated. A mechanism that enables the firm to coordinate the decisions of the two departments is developed. Moreover, extensive numerical studies are conducted to illustrate how the optimal/equilibrium decisions vary with different parameters and the situations under which the firm does not need to apply the complicated coordination mechanism are identified. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research Project Evaluation and Selection in the NSFC: An Approach Based on the Evidential Reasoning Rule with Reliability ZHU Wei-dong, LIU Fang, WANG Dong-peng, Jian-Bo Yang 2016, 24 (10):  141-148.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.016 Abstract ( 1357 )   PDF (1616KB) ( 1203 )   Save Research project evaluation and selection is one of the core research management activities in the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC). Through taking into consideration evaluation criteria and selection procedure, a systematic method of implementing the evidential reasoning rule is presented to aggregate evaluation information on multiple criteria by multiple experts. The proposed method has the following strengths:1) combine evaluation information with different weights and reliabilities effectively, 2) employ a confusion matrix for generating experts' evaluation reliabilities, as experts may have different knowledge background and expertise, and 3) use a belief distribution to represent the overall performance profile of research projects in a more informative way. The belief distribution can be further transformed as utilities which are used to support the decision making of project selection. A case study on the project evaluation and selection of the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) demonstrates the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Dynamic Combined Evaluation Method Based on Consistency LI Mei-juan, XU Lin-ming, CHEN Guo-hong 2016, 24 (10):  149-155.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.017 Abstract ( 1378 )   PDF (863KB) ( 1210 )   Save In order to get rid of the inconsistency among evaluation results from different dynamic evaluation methods and dynamic combined evaluation methods,a dynamic combined evaluation method based on consistency is proposed. The thinking of the dynamic combined evaluation method is as following. The dynamic compatible methods set is determined. The dynamic evaluation results from different dynamic evaluation methods of dynamic compatible methods set are combined by several dynamic combined evaluation methods. If the evaluation results are inconsistency, the dynamic combined evaluation results are combined and recombined by these dynamic combined evaluation methods, until the consistency dynamic combined sorting results are obtained. In practice, a dynamic combined evaluation is conducted on the independent innovation capabilities of the provinces in east China. The source data of the evaluation indicators for the regional independent innovation capacities come from China Statistical Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology, and the web site of People's Republic of China Ministry of Science and Technology which provides a database with the major indicators for the science and technology in China. Such an evaluation, as an instance, shows that the findings of this work are practically effective. The consistency evaluation results of the evaluation objects at a certain time and the overall evaluation results of the evaluation objects at a period of time are both obtained by this method. The method proposed in this study provides an idea in dealing with dynamic evaluation and the inconsistency among dynamic evaluation results, helpfully complements the comprehensive evaluation method, and facilitates the researches in related fields. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Impacts of Online Guanxi on the Performance of Small and Medium e-Tailers WANG Meng, GUO Xun-hua, CHEN Guo-qing, LI Zhi-jie 2016, 24 (10):  156-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.018 Abstract ( 1401 )   PDF (1015KB) ( 978 )   Save Factors influencing the performance of online sellers (e-tailerss) have attracted extensive interest from both academics and practitioners. This research aims to examine the implications of e-tailers' Guanxi in online marketplaces. Drawing on social network and social capital theories, a typology of e-tailers' Guanxi on e-commerce platforms is developed and different types of Guanxi are linked to the performance of e-tailers. In contrast to the previous studies that have mostly focused on Guanxi with peer sellers and paid little attention to Guanxi with buyers, the research gap is to be filled by proposing a theoretical framework that integrates the two sides. The model is validated through an empirical investigation using data collected from a real-world e-commerce platform. Results from regression analyses signicantly support the proposed hypotheses. The work contributes to related literature by providing a more coherent account of e-tailers' performance and offers useful managerial suggestions for e-tailers. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effects of Individual Trust Cognition on Cooperative Game ZHENG Jun-jun, LI Cheng-zhi, HAN Xiao, DONG Jin-hui 2016, 24 (10):  164-170.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.019 Abstract ( 1225 )   PDF (1112KB) ( 1624 )   Save Most of the current researches on trust and cooperation have been studied from the perspective of behavior or from the perspective of outcome. The former takes the trust equal to the individual cooperative behavior, and the later abstracts the trust as an impact factor of player's expected outcome. However, with the development of cognitive psychology, more and more scholars have found that trust belongs to psychological cognitive process essentially, and trust can lead to cooperation, but cooperation cannot explain the degree of trust completely. Hence, no matter studying the trust and cooperation from the perspective of behavior or from the perspective of outcome cannot match our current comprehension of the trust. Against this background, trust is portrayed from the cognitive perspective by the cognitive psychology and the trust is regarded as a faith that opponent will choose cooperation in the interaction. Dilemma game is taken as example and faith learning and updating is used to portray trust. By using dynamic trust forecasting cognitive model, equilibrium in one-time prisoner's dilemma game, finitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game and infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game have been studied, and thus the evolution of cooperation in short-term relationship, the medium-term relationship and long-term relationship have been observed. According to the results, in short-term relationship and medium-term relationship, when the trust degree exceeds a critical value, cooperating with opponents becomes the dominant strategy of the players, and cooperation turns to be the equilibrium of the game system. When players are in long-term relationship, whether the current round satisfaction degree, historical direct trust degree, direct trust degree, or indirect trust degree, and the active degree of the players and other factors have a certain impact on their cooperative behavior at equilibrium. At last, a numerical example has proved this study. According to our study, the generation and maintenance of cooperation can be promoted by improving trust degree between individuals. Generally speaking, approaches to enhance the trust degree between individuals are as follows:increasing indirect trust degree by establishing and maintaining a reputation, improving satisfaction degree by improving personal performance in each interaction. For those individuals who already have relatively good reputation, it is wise to enhance their active degree of the social system to endow more weight to their direct trust. In all, This study can help us understand the impact of trust on cooperation from the perspective of cognitive psychology. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimization of Load Distribution on Surface Mount Production Line Based on DNA Genetic Algorithm LI Zhi-Gang, WU Hao 2016, 24 (10):  171-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.10.020 Abstract ( 1571 )   PDF (939KB) ( 1331 )   Save The PCB assembly in the load distribution between the different assembly equipments in SMT production line is an important class of optimization problems in the electronics industry. Given the takt time and the actual production process constraints,its optimization objective is to make different placers load balanced and task allocation optimal,so that improving production efficiency and equipment utilization. Firstly, in order to balance the workload among different placers, based on a variety of different types of the surface mounters, nozzles and component matching particularity, the problem of task allocation optimization of placement machines is proposed; Secondly, the actual production line design information factor parameter components, assembly feasibility, the actual placement time, as well as the placement relationship optimization are analyzed, the mathematical model of load distribution combinatorial optimization is set up given optimization maximizing equilibrium conditions; Finally, aiming at the complexity and particularity of load distribution problems in SMT production line, the mathematical models are optimized through the combination of improved encoding of DNA genetic algorithm to calculate the fitness,and the problem is solved by using MATLAB, and then the optimal solution is found. The results show that:the load distribution optimization method proposed in this paper can effectively solve the problems in load optimization distribution of printed circuit board(PCB)assembly,advance the utilization and equilibrium of equipment,and promote the operation optimization of the production line. References | Related Articles | Metrics