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20 November 2016, Volume 24 Issue 11 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Does Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Promote Integration between Hong Kong and Mainland China's stock market YAN Hong-lei, ZHAO Sheng-min 2016, 24 (11):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.001 Abstract ( 1677 )   PDF (992KB) ( 1599 )   Save Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is a cross-boundary investment channel under which investors in each market are able to trade shares on the other market using their local brokers and clearing houses. After the successful launching of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program in 2014, it is expected Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect program will be launched in 2016 according to Government Work Report 2015 and 2016. Does Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect enhance stock market integration between Hong Kong and Mainland China? What predictions does it have on the launch of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and How to promote stock market integration between Hong Kong and Mainland China? Differ from previous research, the stock market segmentation and integration is studied from a micro perspective focusing on the dynamics of the cross listed companies' A and H shares' prices. Under the assumption of efficient market, arbitrage will eliminate unreasonable gaps thus the stock prices (or return) of identical companies are apt to converge. If not, arbitrage opportunities arise and arbitrage capitalizes on unreasonable gaps while eliminate them and provide liquidity. The daily close prices of all together 84 cross listed companies from 2014 April, 10th to 2016 March, 25th are collected as our sample and the H shares' prices are adjusted to RMB prices by the exchange rate of identical day. The evolvement of price discrepancy between the cross listed A and H shares is first studied to analyze the impact of Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect on market integration with application of transition model and log t test. And then arbitrage strategy between cross listed A and H shares is proposed to improve stock market integration by constructing arbitrage free interval with application of value at risk (VaR) model based on the assumption that gaps follow generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) and test its profitability.Empirical result shows that convergence between the cross listed A and H shares vary among individual companies and time, only 7 pairs of A and H shares of identical firm converge across the whole sample period, moreover there is no sign of uptrend as the number declines from 24 in 2014 to 8 in 2016 Q1. Therefore the integration level is unsatisfactory and Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect has not fully functioned. However, arbitrage can contribute to market integration and the strategy produces significant average return of 3.64% for one week and 6.59% for two weeks. Out of sample test verifies the aforementioned findings and shows the strategy is effective and profitable. In this paper the evolvement of the Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect's policy effect is systematically studied. Besides, feasible strategy by arbitrage between cross listed stocks which facilitates market participants' spontaneous trading against unreasonable gaps as a solution of market segmentation is proposed. And our research provides enlightenment and empirical reference for Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Foreign Penetration, Privatization Degree and Social Welfare with Product Differentiation ZHANG Wei, ZHONG Wei-jun, MEI Shu-e 2016, 24 (11):  11-18.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.002 Abstract ( 1347 )   PDF (1477KB) ( 1058 )   Save Since the beginning of the reform and opening in 1978, China has implemented company type joint-stock reform of state-owned firms, private firm. Joint venture enterprises continuously increase, and promote the rapid economic development in our country. In September, 2015, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued "Guidelines on Deepening the Reform of State Enterprises", pointing out that there still exist some problems for state-owned enterprises to be solved, to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises. At the same time, attracting foreign investment actively has become one of the important development strategies in developing countries. Advanced production technology can be introduced through the penetration of foreign investment, which is conducive to the development of firms and the improvement of the production rate of domestic firms indirectly. Therefore, studying the degree of privatization of public firms, the foreign penetration of joint venture is of great significance to the firms and social development. Considering the factors such as the product differentiation of firms, the degree of privatization and foreign penetration,the relationship among the degree of privatization, foreign penetration and social welfare is researched, and the impact of the degree of privatization and foreign penetration on the mixed duopoly market under Bertrand competition is analyzed. A mixed duopoly model of Bertrand competition is first established, and the Bertrand equilibrium solution is obtained, then the optimal degrees of privatization respectively for substitutes and complementary goods under government's social welfare maximization are derived. Furthermore, the impact of foreign penetration or domestic stockholding of joint venture on the degree of privatization and the mixed duopoly market is analyzed. The results show that, while the firms producing substitution goods compete in prices, the degree of privatization is reduced to zero, which means that the firm becomes a pure public firm, to achieve the maximum of social welfare, increase in proportion of domestic stockholding of joint venture will improve the optimal social welfare. The decrease of product differentiation will reduce the maximum social welfare, the profits of firms become larger with the increase of domestic stockholding of joint venture in proportion. When the firms producing complementary goods compete in prices, the government can adopt the policy of partial privatization policy in order to maximize social welfare, and should reduce proportion of privatization with the increase of domestic stockholding of joint venture in proportion. The government should encourage product diversification and reduce penetration of foreign capital to obtain the maximum social welfare. From the whole society and the enterprise's point of view, joint-stock reform of state-owned firms or part privatization of public firms is the best strategy. Finally, the conclusions are verified through a numerical example of simulation, which is consistent with the results. In this paper, the relevant conclusions can provide some implications for related firms' managers in decision-making to promote social and economic development. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Performance-based Contracting Design Models Integrated with Business Interruption Insurance for the Maintenance Services of Mission-critical Equipment QIN Xu-wei, YANG Yu-pei, KANG Wan-gen, DOU Na 2016, 24 (11):  19-28.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.003 Abstract ( 1967 )   PDF (1713KB) ( 977 )   Save Maintaining a high level of system availability is the fundamental gurantee of the profitability of firms operating mission-critical equipment in an environment characterized by low-frequency, high-impact events such as equipment failures. Once an operational disruption occurs, the firm hardly affords significant operational downtime and often causes financial distress. To mitigate the severe impact of the unexpected disruptions, a proper incentive mechanism has to be in place so that the service supplier would commit the necessary capacity for recovery. Meanwhile, the financial distress risk can be mitigated by transferring the financial liability away to a third party insurer. Performance-based contracting (PBC) is an emerging incentive mechanism where the supplier receives compensation based on realized availability. Business interruption insurance (BI) can protect against the potentially financial risk for the firms. In the paper, the principal-agent contracting models are proposed for an outsourcing setting in which the firm cannot write the supplier's service capacity decision directly into the contract but instead must incentivize the supplier using the PBC and where the firm makes decision on purchasing the BI to eliminate the downtime loss and transfer financial distress. The service performance of the PBC between the firm and the supplier is measured by not only the cumulative downtime but also the individual service experience. The PBC contract design model is presented firstly as the benchmark, in which the firm has to choose the optimal pair of contract terms consisting of the fixed payment and the penalty rate to maximize profit composing the expected production profit of the equipment uptime, the payment to the supplier, production downtime loss, financial distress loss and the goodwill loss, while the supplier chooses optimal service capacity to maximize his utility composing the payment from the firm and the capacity cost. Secondly, the PBC contract model with the BI is proposed, where the insurance premium term is added and the downtime loss and financial distress loss are eliminated in the firm's objective function. Finally, it is explored how the BI impacts on the optimal PBC contract terms and whether the BI need be purchased. The major insights from our analysis are followed: (1) the frequency of disruptions is an important factor in determining contract terms and the supplier's capacity investment decision. (2) The BI and the performance incentive of the PBC contract are partly substitutable. (3) The BI can reduce the sensibility of which the frequency of disruptions influences on the the supplier's capacity, contract terms and the firm's profit. The study is a first attempt on the understanding of the interplay between operation and insurance in the maintenance service of the mission-critical equipment. The theoretical results contribute to the decision-making of the operation-finance interface in the firm operating mission-critical equipment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Design and Selection of Optimal Compensation Contract for PPP Project Based on Private Overconfidence WU Xiao-ling, LIU Xiao-feng, ZHOU Jing, LU Meng-ying 2016, 24 (11):  29-39.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.004 Abstract ( 1496 )   PDF (1879KB) ( 1170 )   Save The current new-type urbanization measures of Chinese government will pull tens of thousands of billions of investment in the infrastructure. However, the government's financial capital is so limited that it is difficult to meet the demand of a large number of infrastructure investment. Thus a model called PPP (Private-Public Partnership) is put forward to solve the shortage of government funding. The infrastructure project using the PPP generally has a quasi public goods attribute, which leads to its low operating revenue unable to take back the private huge initial investment. That means the proper compensation should be given to the private investor, if the government wants the PPP project to be successful. The compensation for the PPP project is not easy to determine before the event because the excessive or insufficient compensation will cause that the project's social welfare or the private interest is damaged. Only the compensation after the event will reduce the enthusiasm of private investment, which will also cause the compensation to be inefficient. Based on the governmental decision-making dilemma for the compensation, a single period compensation contract is introduced for the private investor. The contract specifies that the government should promise the concession revenue before the event to the private investor and then give a certain post-compensation to the investor by comparing the project's real revenue with the concession revenue.When the contract is accepted, the governmental compensation is likely to imply that the private investor show the excessive optimism and confidence on the PPP project's future expectation. That is,the private investor has the overconfidence behavior under the governmental compensation. For this reason, the private overconfidence is considered in the study on the governmental compensation contract for the PPP project.Firstly,the private investor's overconfidence is described by the "Mean-Variance" in which the private overconfidence coefficient is introduced. Thus the private expected utility function related to the overconfidence preference is proposed. Accordingly, the private overconfidence investment strategy is given out and its effect on the governmental optimal compensation contract is studied by the method of Stackelberg game. Secondly, under the circumstance that the private overconfidence can't be observed, the design and selection of governmental optimal compensation contract is discussed. Finally, the obtained conclusions are verified and expanded through a computing example.The studying results show that the private excessive investment behavior doesn't necessarily help to improve the expected social benefits for the project, but the government can always adjust the contract parameter to design the optimal compensation contract (maximizing the project's expected social benefit) which can adapt to the private different overconfidence behavior, and when the private excessive investment can't be observed, the government can select the optimal contract leading to the project's larger expected benefit according to the probability distribution for the private overconfidence.In summary, the results obtained in this paper not only contribute to the governmental compensation strategy, but also provide a better theoretical support for the implement of PPP project. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Project Portfolio Selection Model with Divisibility and Resource Constraints LI Xing-mei, WEI Han-jing, QI Jian-xun, GUO Xiao-ling 2016, 24 (11):  40-46.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.005 Abstract ( 1347 )   PDF (882KB) ( 1064 )   Save With the development of scientific technology and the acceleration of economic globalization, managers who own much capital face more and more projects to choose. How to invest the scarce resources such as budget, people and time. on a most profitable subset is crucial for a firm/organization. This is the main concern of project portfolio selection problem. In real world, managers note that project interruptions may happen, which come from some managerial concerns, such as the lack of cash, materials and technicians. When managers consider the project interruptions as a strategy in choosing the best execution scheduling for projects, i.e., in fact, they try to optimize the project execution by running the projects by portions, and the consideration of the project interruptions as the above strategy is manager's initial intent. These types of interruptions are called divisibility. In this paper this type of project portfolio selection problem considering divisibility is mainly concerned. To the best of our knowledge, there is yet not research about resource constraints introduced into the project portfolio selection problem considering divisibility. Therefore, based on the model of project portfolio selection considering divisibility, a new model considering consumptive and renewable resource constraints is constructed. This model is a mixed integer programming problem with a linear objective function. And then a model of project portfolio selection problem without divisibility is set up. This model is an integer programming problem. The comparison analysis of the above two models is presented.More specifically, the second model is the special case of the first model under some assumptions. Secondly, for the purpose of simplifying the above models, the capital present value presentation is introcluced and proved. Finally, one numerical example is given to illustrate the characteristic of the new model with using GAMS. The result shows that: 1) unlike the research of the past, project divisibility can bring positive influence for the enterprise under the resource constraints. 2) Those projects with more profits and less use of resources are required precedence over all others. 3) When resources are limited, resource constraints are key factors for the selection of projects. A practical case provides the proof for the above results. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Hub-and-spoke Shipping Network Optimization with Service Constraints in a Competitive Environment ZHAO Yu-zhe, ZHOU Jing-miao, KUANG Hai-bo 2016, 24 (11):  47-57.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.006 Abstract ( 1294 )   PDF (1704KB) ( 1146 )   Save The current trend of global trade enhance the importance of shipping service, since it is in charge of transporting up to 90% of the trade volume. Recently, a number of shipping alliances have emerged to dominate the shipping market, and most of the smaller shipping companies are suffering from an ongoing loss of their profits. It is therefore essential for the smaller shipping companies-that are not operating in shipping alliances to seek for ways of competing with the shipping alliances in order to achieve some higher profits or at least to recover the lost market shares. An integer nonlinear programming model is propesed for the hub-and-spoke shipping network optimization with service constraints in a competitive environment to address the considered problem. An existing shipping alliance, called the leader, utilizes a transportation network with a multi-allocation hub-and-spoke topology. A new shipping company, the follower, wants to offer its shipping service in the same shipping market, using its own multi-allocation hub-and-spoke shipping network and setting service quality, service time and service cost so as to maximize its profits. The question to be answered is: Can the follower obtain profits under these conditions, even with same service quality, service time and service cost ofthe leader? In order to answer this question, our procedure finds how many hub ports to locate, where should they be located, what is the best route network. The contributions of this paper are as follows. In the first place, continuous hub location model (the domain of hub ports is a plane not a series of particular ports) is formulated. Secondly, the numbers of routes existing in the origin-destination ports are extended. Third, an attraction function which is a proportional model not a discrete choice model is provided to simulate the consignors' choice behavior. Finally, the integer nonlinear problem is solved using an augmented Lagrange function method based on NCP function and coagulation function. Consequently, the conclusions are achieved by example simulation that, (1) the follower will obtain certain profits by opening moderate number of hub ports in the case of service cost is considered by consignors (θ>0), even if there is no economies of scale (α=1.0); (2) the follower's benefits will be the most significant if there are high economies of scale (α=0.2), but its profits in the case of the leader has different amount of hub ports (PA) located will not unified converges to a certain value if there is no economies of scale (α=1.0) by the fact of a proportional model is applied; (3) the follower can obtain much profits by opening more hub ports if the leader has one hub ports (PA=1), but its capability of obtaining a higher profits will be reducing if the leader has operated more than two hub ports (PA>2) for the 12-node versionof the shipping network. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Hybrid Hub-spoke Express Network Decision with Point-to-point Direct Shipment ZHAO Jin, ZHANG Jian-jun, YAN Cai-hua 2016, 24 (11):  58-65.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.007 Abstract ( 1312 )   PDF (1236KB) ( 1147 )   Save The research issue of this paper is from the practice of CPEL, China Postal Express and Logistics Company, the largest express company in China. It is found find that, in the network operation of express business, the point-to-point direct shipment is permitted when the business volume is big enough. In order to make up the drawback in local optimum in operational rules, a hybrid hub-spoke express network decision-model permitting direct shipment is built on the basis of global optimum target, to answer the following questions: 1) which nodes of the network should be chosen as hubs; 2) which nodes should each hub cover; 3) between which nodes should the point-to-point direct shipment exists. In this paper, it is appointed that, if the total business volume of forward logistics and reverse logistics between any pair oforigin-destination, then it can be believed that the express service demand between the two cities (origin and destination) is frequent, and then, a point-to-point direct shipment is needed to replace the transshipment at the hub. In the model, the object is to minimize the total transport costs of the network, which include three parts: the first part is the transport costs between hub nodes and non-hub nodes, the second part is the transport costs between all hub nodes, and the third part is the transport costs on the directly connected paths between non-hub nodes. The decision variables include binary variables Xk, which means node K is chosen as a hub when Xk=1, and a non-bub when Xk=0. Similarly, for binary variables Xij, if Xij=1, then node i is connected by node j, else, the two nodes are not connected. Here, we use binary variables δij are used to judge whether non-hub nodes i and j should be directly connected: if the total business volume of forward logistics and reverse logistics between the two nodes is beyond a critical value W0,then δij =1, which means the two nodes should be directly connected, else, the two nodes should not be directly connected. The corresponding solving process is also designed and a genetic algorithm is built for its allocation relationship. The calculation of the data from the domestic benchmarking enterprises proved the effectiveness of the model and the solution. The results also illustrate that compared with the pure hub-spoke structure, the direct-shipment-permitting hybrid hub-spoke network can contribute to the total cost reduction, and at the same time can decrease the detour and increase the timeliness and service level. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Evolutionary Game Model of Agri-food Transaction in Consideration of Dealers' Price fraud and Government's Double Intervention HUANG Jian-hua 2016, 24 (11):  66-72.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.008 Abstract ( 1321 )   PDF (1371KB) ( 1440 )   Save The scattered and small-scale production mode, together with asymmetric business information results in the Chinese farmers' weak position in agricultural supply chain. Chinese government has implemented some effective intervention measures, such as minimum price for agricultural products procurement and price subsidy, to safeguard farmer's benefits. By establishing a tripartite evolutionary game model in consideration of price gouging and information asymmetry, the relationship among farmers, dealers of agricultural products and government is analyzed, the boundary of administrative control is also discussed. A case study is given to demonstrate the interrelationships among action, evolutionary path and evolutionary stable strategy(ESS) in the end. The results show that the government would take intervention to punish price gouging, when the size of illegal dealers or the number of farmers involved in trading reaches a certain scale; the probability of dealers choosing fraud strategy is affected by two main factors: the strength of government's intervention and the scale of agricultural products in trading, it declines with the increase of the amount of the fines and increase with the deal size of agricultural products; the minimum price system for purchasing agricultural products can't ensure a positive effect, but an unreasonable discount coefficient may destroy the market system. Therefore, it illustrates that taking reasonable and effective intervention measures makes great significance to protect farmers and maintain market order. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Promised Lead Time and Capacity Decision-Making Based on Demand is Uncertain XIE Xiang-tian, ZHANG Bi-xi 2016, 24 (11):  73-80.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.009 Abstract ( 1489 )   PDF (1195KB) ( 1273 )   Save In the market of online-customized products, demands possess uncertainty in both amount and time.In this paper, a promised lead time and capacity decision-making model is proposed by taking expected profit as the objective function with the Activity Based Costing, considering the demands are sensitivity of promised lead time and stochastic. A recursive mathematical expression of the optimal promised lead time and the optimal capacity is obtained by analyzing the model. On this basis, building up the M/M/1 model by taking the reliability of promised lead time as limiting condition with the queuing theory. It is proved that the M/M/1 model is Concave Programming, and equations of the optimal promised lead time and the optimal capacity are obtained. At last, through numerical example the optimal promised lead time and the optimal capacity are restricted by the reliability of promised lead time, and with the improvement of the reliability of promised lead time, the optimal promised lead time is increasing; the optimal capacity and the optimal expected profit are decreasing. The research shows that the optimal promised lead time and the optimal capacity are got through combining with the reliability of the promised lead time, which can improve the utilization rate of capacity and the accuracy of lead time. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Strategies of the Information Leakage in the Supply Chain Under Horizontal Competition ZHOU Jian-heng, JIANG Bi-yun 2016, 24 (11):  81-93.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.010 Abstract ( 1343 )   PDF (1596KB) ( 1582 )   Save Many upstream supplier may sell their products indirectly through various reselling channels, some large resellers is often better informed than the other small resellers of the market demand. It is assumed that the large reseller can observe the true market type privately, before production, while the small reseller knows only the prior distribution of the market type. Since the small reseller does not observe the market demand directly, he may want to use the information revealed from the large reseller's order quantity though the supplier to make his decision on the direct sale quantity. Anticipating the supplier and small reseller's decision, the large reseller may purposely block information dissemination by ordering the same quantity for any market size or reveal the market size truthfully. So in this paper, how information leakage influences the supply chain strategic in the presence of asymmetric information is investigated, with different bargaining power of two retailers, when revenue sharing and wholesale price contract are used, respectively. This issue is discussed though a one supplier-two reseller setting where the supplier may leak the market information learned from order quantity of the large reseller who is better informed of the market size to a small reseller. The market information of large retailer is leaked to its competitor though the supplier thereby affects the supply chain. By analyzing and comparing the features in the process of the two retailers' decision game in two cases, with or without the information leakage, the mechanism of supply chain information leakage under asymmetry information is revealed. Then under the premise of the assumptions that the manufacturer will always leak information, the decision-making model based on the signaling is constructed, to discuss the two retailers' ordering strategies as well as profits under both separating equilibrium and pooling equilibrium. On the basis, the situation in which from the perspective of own interests, the manufacturer takes the initiative to choose whether leak information or not, when information leakage phenomenon may exist, the two retailers' strategies choice is extended. The analysis shows that the manufacturer will always leak information to gain better interest. Therefore when making decisions, retailers should take the manufacturer's such a selfish behavior into account, big retailer's strategies selection are related to the degree of market demand fluctuation: pooling equilibrium performed better with small-fluctuation demand while separating equilibrium performed better with large-fluctuation demand. In particular, when the market demand is low, the optimal order quantity of big retailer distorted downwards, that is to pay a certain "information rent" as the expense to deal with the information leakage. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Strategic Volume Flexible Technology Decision of Startups under Competitive Setting CAO Guo-zhao, QI Er-shi 2016, 24 (11):  94-102.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.011 Abstract ( 1447 )   PDF (1308KB) ( 1205 )   Save As the main body of entrepreneurial activities, startups face larger demand uncertainty and market competition, and thus need to undertake greater bankruptcy risk. They concern more about survival rather than growth during the operations. Volume flexible technology choice is one of the most important operational decisions of startups, which can help them to reduce the mismatch between supply and demand, and enhance their competitiveness. It also has a higher capacity cost, which leads to a higher investment cost and bankruptcy risk. So, the startups need to weigh the advantages against the disadvantages of volume flexibility. In this paper, the volume flexible technology decision of the startup is analyzed under competitive setting. Using the game theory the model in which a startup company and an established firm engage in output competition in the market is first built. Both of them can choose volume flexible technology or traditional technology. The startup company maximize its survival probability while the established firm maximizes its profit. Then it obtains the optimal capacity investment decisions of the 2 firms, the optimal survival probability of the startup, and the optimal profit of the established firm under different competitive strategies. Nash equilibrium is used to obtain the equilibrium technology choice of the 2 firms. Finally, it conducts a numerical experimentation to analyze the factors that influence the equilibrium strategies of the two firms. The result shows that under competitive setting, the startup company pays more attention to the cost factor, is more likely to choose non-flexible technology, which has a lower cost than the volume flexible technology. However, the established firm is more sensitive to the demand variance, will choose volume flexible technology when the demand variance is high. As the frictional cost of the volume flexible technology increase, both of them prefer non-flexible technology. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Establishment of Partial Ordered Relations among Decision Making Units in Data Envelopment Analysis Method MU Ren, MA Zhan-xin, WEN Zong-chuan 2016, 24 (11):  103-108.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.012 Abstract ( 1390 )   PDF (1042KB) ( 1178 )   Save Based on the defects that are unable to determine the partial order relations other than constant returns to scale model of the data envelopment analysis method based on partially ordered set theory, a new method and algorithm which determine partial order relations of three different frequently used models are provided. This algorithm can not only give the partial order matrix among the various decision making units but also visualize the results directly, which should provide important decision making information for decision-makers. At last, this method is used in the evaluation of a Provincial Natural Science Fund. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Efficiency Evaluation of Technology Innovation Centered on Enterprise Based on DEA and T Test LI Hong-xi, CHI Guo-tai 2016, 24 (11):  109-119.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.013 Abstract ( 1469 )   PDF (1921KB) ( 1117 )   Save The efficiency evaluation of technology innovation is aimed to measure the output of technology, efficiency of resource utilization centered on enterprise and find out important factors of technology innovation efficiency. The enterprise is the main part of technology input and output in this research. Data Envelopment Analysis is used to do empirical analysis of 15 sub-provincial cities in China. The pure technology efficiency and scale efficiency is measured to determine the scale is big or small. By screening the important factors that signally influence technology efficiency, the key problem of every sub-provincial city is find out. The innovations and characters: firstly, in this paper the efficiency evaluation model included all indicators is the basic model and the efficiency evaluation model without one indicator Xi is the comparison model. By t test, it is verified if the efficiency difference between basic model and comparison model is significant. If the difference is significant, the indicator Xi is the key factor. It changes the existing research can't screen the key indicators by DEA. Secondly, empirical result shows that the key indicators include "R&D expenses of industrial enterprises above designated size" "financial funds to technology" "technology professionals" "new products output of industrial enterprises above designated size" "technical market turnover". Thirdly, empirical results show that the reasons why technology efficiency is low for different sub-provincial cities are different. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on the Interactive Evaluation in Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making DU Juan, HUO Jia-zhen 2016, 24 (11):  120-128.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.014 Abstract ( 1471 )   PDF (1059KB) ( 1117 )   Save In this paper, a group is composed of dependent members who are supposed to be evaluated via multiple attributes and participation in determining these attributes' weights. In order to seek the attributes' weights in multiple attribute group decision making, an iterative algorithm is proposed, which starts with equal weights and solves a programming model with weight parameters for each group member to obtain a set of optimal weights. The optimal weights to each attribute decided by every group member are then averaged and used as the new weight parameters in modeling solving during the next iteration. This iterative procedure repeats until for each member, the consecutive weighted average values of all attributes converge within a specified small enough positive value. The optimal attributes' weights of the group are therefore obtained as the current parameter weights when the iteration terminates. Such a set of attributes' weights are jointly determined by all group members, in which sense the related results and decisions are supposed to be accepted and satisfied by all (or at least most) members. A numerical example and an application of R&D project selection are studied to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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System of Evaluation Indices of Emergency Facility Location and Model Based on Facility Failure Scenarios ZHANG Min, ZHANG Ling 2016, 24 (11):  129-136.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.015 Abstract ( 1565 )   PDF (943KB) ( 1334 )   Save Because of the destructive power and uncertainty of emergencies, it is possible that the emergency facility will fail. System of evaluation indices and model of emergency facility location based on the facility failure scenarios are studied in this paper. At first, failure scenarios of emergency facility are defined. Evaluation indices of facility location are studied based on the definition of failure scenarios. The evaluation indices of global, efficiency, equilibrium, reliability and economy are defined. Multi-covering concept is used to present the reliability evaluation index. It is helpful to improve the material security degree of emergency resource for the demand region and the reliability of the emergency system. The system of general scenario evaluation indices, the system of facility failure scenario evaluation indices and the system of multi-region scenario evaluation indices, which have the different evaluation target-oriented, are designed in the end, the measure of more indices of input and output is involved in the emergency facility location generally. The data envelope analysis which is the predominant method to solve the problem of multiple inputs and multiple outputs is used to evaluate the rationality of emergency facility location.The computational experiment shows the practicability and validity of the proposed system of facility location evaluation indices. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Influence of Risk and Fashion on Consumer Information Searching-based on Social Network WANG Li-li, ZHAO Bing-xin, D.Nebenzahl 2016, 24 (11):  137-145.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.016 Abstract ( 490 )   PDF (963KB) ( 1249 )   Save Consumer decision-making is the core of consumer behavior. As the first step of consumer decision-making theory, information searching receives more attention. In the network era, consumer environment changes quickly and presents network characteristics. Consumers pursue fashion and personality. Technical complexity increases consumer's perceived risk. all these factors embed consumers into the complex social network. Despite a plethora of research in the respective domain of consumer information searching and social network, little study has been focused on the relationship between the two domainants. As the main channel for information, social network provide information and resources support. So from the perspective of network, taking risk and fashion as the point of entry, how social network influences consumer's information searching behavior is studied in this article.In network construction, the main literature use analogue simulation or friend-network/communication network to instead of the network which influences consumer decision-making. Different from those articles, structure index and regression model are put together in this paper. Starting with the network structure, this paper along the line of propose hypothesis, survey design, data collection, model validation to study whether the structure indexes in complex network also play a role in consumer information searching. First, an assumption is made that there is a positive correlation between consumer's risk/fashion sensitivity and information searching behavior. With the social network as the moderator variable, the structure model is established.By reviewing related literature, the network scale which includes network size, network structure-hole, network cohesive sub-group and tie strength is built, The method of regression is adopted to reveal the relationship between consumer's social network and information searching. Data is collected by using a convenience sampling. It is found that consumer's fashion sensitivity has positive correlation with information searching. Social network has a moderate effect. Especially, network size and tie strength have positive/negative effect respectively. This conclusion provides instructions to the study of network and consumer behavior on network construction. For enterprise, this research verifies that social network can influence information searching, so company can use social network as a tool, in product design, brand marketing and so on, to expand product/brand influence and improve the pertinence and effectiveness of promotion and strategy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Price on Fresh Agricultural Products by C2B Based on F2F SHAO Teng-wei, LV Xiu-mei 2016, 24 (11):  146-152.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.017 Abstract ( 408 )   PDF (1104KB) ( 1125 )   Save It usually undergoes multistage links for fresh agricultural product from field to kitchen in China. Very link will add transaction cost to fresh agricultural product accordingly, which makes the fresh agricultural product price very high. Furthermore, the price of fresh agricultural product changes radically and the quality of product becomes insecure because of information asymmetry and supply chain opaque. With the arrival of internet era, e-commerce which can reduce the transaction cost and information asymmetry gives out a new idea to solve the problems of agricultural product quality security and dislocation between production and need in China. Based on the transaction cost theory, the supply chain management theory and the internet thought, a direct docking of production and marketing model between consumers and producers is made by the advance booking of crowd-funding on fresh agricultural goods. Firstly, it builds a joint utility model on the side of demanders that many scattered consumers join to an organized consumer group. The theoretical analysis shows that the delivered value increases obviously when these scattered consumers join to a consumer group. Secondly, a Nash bargaining model is built on the side of suppliers that small-scale farms join to a polymerized producers group, it finds the polymerized producers can not only obtain scale economy, scope economy and ecological economy but also improve the bargaining power of producers to enter the market and further improve the operating efficiency of agriculture. Thirdly, the accounting equation containing all costs and between organized consumer group and polymerized producers group is used and further reduction on transaction costs for producers and consumers is shown, which can make the supply chains of fresh agriculture products transparent to ensure food safety. Finally, a ladder price is designed to encourage consumer to take an active participant in the advance booking of crowd-funding by the means of online and offline. It shows that, compared with traditional multistage circulation of offline, fresh agricultural products being directly circulated from farms to families by the advance booking of crowd-funding exists obvious advantages such as the reduction of intermediate links, logistics costs, circulation loss, the risk of market and quality, which not only makes consumers to get more customer delivered value but also polymerize bulk of orders for the producers by the attract of ladder prices. Therefore there exists an unique Nash equilibrium to realize the Pareto improvement between agricultural producers and consumers. In addition, a practical example is given to test the validity of the research result. The data from the example's actual operation affirms that the price strategy of advance booking by crowd-funding is much better than the price strategy of traditional booking of spot goods. Solutions are provided for the direct docking of production and marketing on fresh agricultural goods by the means of internet plus. It can help agricultural crowd-funding projects to increase the success rate if research findings are used availably. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricingstrategy of Supply Chain Based on Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price LIN Zhi-bing 2016, 24 (11):  153-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.018 Abstract ( 429 )   PDF (1176KB) ( 1570 )   Save The manufacturer's suggested retail price as consumer's reference price is introduced into the supply chain system for describing its effects on pricing strategic of supply chain. This system is studied by game theory and it is found that while the manufacturer's suggested retail price is low, the retailer will offer a lowest reference price strategy; while the manufacturer's suggested retail price is high, the retailer will offer a highest reference price strategy; while the manufacturer's suggested retail price is medium, the retailer will offer a resale price maintenance strategy. Based on these, the effects of the relevant parameters on the three strategies, as well as the differences among them, are analyzed. The results indicate that: both the lowest or highest reference price strategy could maximize the manufacturer's profit, the condition of choice is also given. Finally, the profits of supply chain system under different strategies are compared by numerical analysis, the results showed that the profits of system with the highest reference price strategy is optimal. The conclusions of this paper offer a theoretical reference for the decision of manufacturer's suggested retail price. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Financing Decisions for Confirming Warehouse with Core Enterprise's Buyback Guarantee WANG Zong-run, MA Zhen, ZHOU Yan-ju 2016, 24 (11):  162-169.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.019 Abstract ( 508 )   PDF (1434KB) ( 1027 )   Save Using core enterprise's credit for reference and confirming warehouse emerge as the times require to strengthen SMEs' credit condition make it easier for them to get financial support from banks. However, with the deterioration of market conditions, many SMEs go bankrupt and the core enterprise then undertake huge joint indemnity. In the supply chain, a bi-level Stackelberg game in which the bank acts as the leader, the manufacturer as the subleader, the retailor as the follower is formulated. Taking the retailer's bankruptcy probability into account, the manufacturer buys back a certain percentage of unsold products and retailer takes the acceptance draft as a settlement tool to finance products. By adopting backward induction method, the decision of the retailer's optimal order quantity, manufacturer's optimal buyback rate and the bank's optimal interest rate is analyzed. Through numerical examples, it is found that the increase of the buyback rate can encourage the retailer to order and improve the profit of the supply chain. However, the change of the buyback rate to the bank's profit is greatly influenced by the retailer's bankruptcy probability. Higher buyback rate can stimulate creditworthy retailer to order more, and thus increase the bank's profit. To the poor credit retailer, the increase of order quantity will make bank a greater probability to suffer from loss, with expected profit reducing at the same time. So, when adopting any form of buyback contract, special attention should be paid to the side effect of bringing manufacturer to assume partial risk of market fluctuation. When demand recession resulting in SMEs' failure to repay bank acceptance bills, core enterprise can not make a full compensation either. Before signing for confirming warehouse agreement, bank should focus on both SMEs and core enterprise's credit repayment ability, as well as strengthen fund supervision, to avoid misusing of credit. With more and more people are concerned about the supply chain finance, the risk it brings to the entire supply chain system should not be neglected. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Bayesian Analysis of Field Reliability for a Repairable System ZHOU Yu, KOU Gang, ERGU Da-ji 2016, 24 (11):  170-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.11.020 Abstract ( 363 )   PDF (2032KB) ( 1116 )   Save Reliability, maintainability and availability are three important attributes to describe the quality of a large-scale device. A certain large-scale device is in the prototype testing phase and clearly exhibits reliability growth. However, the high environmental stress and operation cost result in the difficulties to collect field data. Moreover, the downtime constraint should be considered when the availability analysis is carried out. Therefore, it is very difficult to carry out device reliability, maintainability and availability assessments. In this paper, the empirical analysis is first carried out based on the field failure and maintenance data, then the device reliability improvement trend is determined with a piecewise linear model. For the small sample question of the field failure and maintenance data, the Bayesian method is introduced, and the field reliability and maintainability parameters are calculated by the soft WinBUGS. Then the most appropriate description of the system availability—mission availability with closed expression form is presented. In order to illustrate the effectiveness of the method, the field data from June 4, 2007 to May 17, 2010 has been couected. Through the case study, two reliability change-points are determined and thus the device reliability and maintainability are analyzed with Bayesian method. As a result, the average relative error of Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods are 0.42% and 8.78% respectively. Then it can be concluded that using the Bayesian method to carry out field reliability analysis is more effective compared to the maximum likelihood method. References | Related Articles | Metrics