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20 November 2017, Volume 25 Issue 11 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Monetary Policy, Investor Sentiment and Volatility of Chinese Stock Market:Theory and Evidence CHEN Qi-an, LEI Xiao-yan 2017, 25 (11):  1-11.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.001 Abstract ( 1216 )   PDF (2180KB) ( 646 )   Save The reaction of the stock market to monetary policy has always been an important issue for government regulatory departments, investors and academics. When investors have irrational psychological preferences such as optimistic or pessimistic mood, the effect of monetary policy on the stock market should be different from that when investors are completely rational. Therefore, systematically and deeply researching the relationship among monetary policy, investor sentiment and volatility of stock market is of great academic and practical significance. It will contribute to improving the government's regulatory efficiency on the stock market and ensuring Chinese stock market to healthily and stably development. First, referring to the utility measuration method of Holmstrom and Milgrom (1987), using interest rate as monetary policy variable, and taking the utility maximization as the investors' decision objection, the mathematical model is constructed to theoretically research the effect mechanism of monetary policies and investment sentiment on the volatility of stock market under the hypothesis conditions that investors are risk averse and have optimistic or pessimistic emotion. The results of theoretical model show that the volatility of stock market is positively related to investor sentiment and negatively related to interest rates. In addition, investor sentiment would weaken the regulatory function of monetary policies on the volatility of stock market to a certain extent, and make the actual reaction of stock market to monetary policies deviate from the regulation target of monetary policies. Then, the short-term Haodan index surveyed by Stock Market Trend Analysis Weekly is used to construct investor sentiment indicator. Taking the SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate) and the net currency issuance of Chinese open market as monetary policy indicators, the ARCH model is setting up to empirically test the results of above-mentioned theoretical model based on the weekly data of Chinese stock market from October 2006 to September 2014. The empirical results show that the SHIBORs would have significantly negative effects on the volatility of Chinese stock market, and the investor sentiment and the net currency issuance of Chinese open market would have significantly positive effects on the volatility of Chinese stock market. The volatility of Chinese stock market when investors are optimistic would be significantly greater than that when investors are rational and pessimistic. The reasonality and correctness of the above-mentioned theoretical model are further proved by these empirical results. In this paper, the investor sentiment is introduced to a new analysis framework to disclose the effect mechanism of monetary policies on stock market, and clarify the reaction behavior characteristics of stock market to monetary policies under the condition that investors are irrational such as optimistic or pessimistic. The theoretical and empirical results of this paper provide reasonable explanations to the monetary policy effects of Chinese stock market which are not accord with the traditional financial market theory based on the perspective of investor sentiment, and supplement and enrich the system of behavioral finance theory based on the operating practices of Chinese stock market to a certain extent. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Default Prediction Combined with Soft Informationin Online Peer-to-Peer Lending JIANG Cui-qing, WANG Rui-ya, DIGN Yong 2017, 25 (11):  12-21.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.002 Abstract ( 1152 )   PDF (1781KB) ( 575 )   Save P2P lending is a new type of loan mode formed by the intersection of Internet and traditional finance. It provides a more convenient loan platform and has been developing rapidly in China.However, the phenomenon of collapse in P2P is getting worse as P2P loans is facing default risk and bad debt losses seriously. Credit evaluation is an important basis for managing loan default risk and supporting lending decision. Compared with traditional loans, the financial data of borrowers collected by P2P platform is limited, which is also called the hard the information.However,there is lots of soft information generated during the loan application, such as loan description text,also involving some information about loans and borrowers. Therefore, a default prediction method combined with soft informationfor P2P lending is proposed. Firstly, the soft information is categorized according to the characteristics of P2P, and the LDA topic model is used to quantify valuable factors in the text of soft information. Secondly, some regression analysis and contrast experiments are performed to test the effect of soft information on P2P default probability. Moreover, a two-stage method is designed to selecteffective variablesets for default modeling, and the default prediction model is constructed through the random forest (RF) method.Finally, based on the data from a Chinese P2P platform—eloan.com, an experimental research is conducted to verify the effectiveness of methods we proposed.The results show that the soft information can improve the recognition rate of loan default, which can be used as the basis of P2P credit evaluation. The feature combination selection method proposed in this paper and the credit evaluation model based on Random Forest have achieved good classification accuracy.And the proposed method can improve predictionperformancesobviously compared withthe platform's own rating method, which has certain reference significance for the credit evaluation of P2P network lending. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Service Decisions Consideration Demand Shift Between Online and Offline in Supply Chain O2O System FAN Dan-dan, XU Qi, WANG Wen-jie 2017, 25 (11):  22-32.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.003 Abstract ( 1112 )   PDF (2525KB) ( 521 )   Save With the development of mobile internet, the emerging e-commerce O2O (Online to Offline) business strategy with the support of the widespread use of mobile apps and e-transactions has gained significant popularity in the retail industry. As a business strategy, O2O commerce draws potential customers from online channels to physical stores according to offline stores' service level,vice versa. Therefore, some of customers change their buying channel from one to the other when service level of online or offline changes, which is called demand shift. Thus, channel demand will be affected, as well as O2O system's profit. In this paper, with the consideration of impact of the service levels to demand in both online channel and offline channel, the optimal service decisions in supply chain O2O system are studied. The two kinds of situations are discussed, one situation is that demand does not shift, although affected by the levels of service; the other is that demand shift from one channel to the other with the change of service levels. In each situation, there exist two different decision models, i.e., the centralized and decentralized service decision models of O2O system, respectively. The centralized decision model means the brand supplier provides products to self-own stores; while the decentralized decision model means the brand supplier provides products to its franchise stores. The optimal service strategy of centralized system and decentralized system are investigated, respectively. More specifically, a two-echelon supply chain O2O system with one brand supplier and offline stores is considered. The brand not only sells the product to the offline stores but also sells directly to the end customer through its online stores. For centralized system, the total profit model is established to discuss the optimal service levels to maximize the total profit of the system. Further, similar to the centralized system, for the decentralized system, the profit models of the brand supplier and the offline franchisee are established, respectively. Then, the optimal service levels that make the brand and the franchisee achieve Nash equilibrium are discussed. Accordingly, the condition for Nash equilibrium solution is obtained. The research results show:1) for the centralized system, when one of online and offline provides services, the O2O system can achieve the optimal no matter demand no shift or not. If both online and offline services are provided, only in the case that the demand is not shift between online and offline, the O2O system can obtain optimal profits. 2) for the decentralized system, whether one of online and offline provides services or both provide services, only if some conditions are met, the O2O system always achieve Nash equilibrium both in demand shift and no shift situation. Finally, a typical clothing brand M in China is taken as an example for numerical analysis. Some parameters are assumed, and the impact of service levels on profits is discussed. Our research is helpful to companies who make optimal service decision as they practice the emerging O2O commerce. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Commission Contract Design in “Offline Evaluation, Online Purchase” (O2O) Supply Chain in the Presence of Cross-selling JIN Liang, ZHANG Xu-mei, DAN Bin, LI Shi-yang 2017, 25 (11):  33-46.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.004 Abstract ( 1079 )   PDF (2302KB) ( 641 )   Save With the rapid development of Internet technologies, more and more online retailers are exploring new ways to sell products. In this context, the "offline evaluation, online purchase" mode has been increasingly viewed as an effective and novel way to provide information of the product to the customers and this mode can mitigate information gap exists in the O2O supply chain. However, the existence of cross-selling behavior and information asymmetry leads to incentive misalignment in the offline to online (O2O) supply chain. To solve this problem, we study an offline to online (O2O) supply chain consists of an online retailer and an offline store under asymmetric cross-selling revenue information. The offline store provides consumers with offline evaluation service for the product the online retailer provides. The main work in this paper includes four parts. First, we proposed optimal commission contracts and analyzed the properties of the optimal commission contracts under asymmetric information and full information, respectively. Second, we analyzed the impacts of cross-selling revenue information asymmetry on the optimal commission contract and the impacts on the profit of online retailer, offline store and whole O2O supply chain. Third, we established a benchmark model in which the cross-selling revenue is set to zero to investigate the value of cross-selling within an O2O supply chain, and we analyzed the impact of cross-selling revenue on the profit of online retailer and offline store. Finally, we illustrate the impacts of the environment parameters on the commission contract parameters and the profits through a numerical example. The results show that, the online retailer will choose an optimal commission contract with both a unique commission rate and a fixed payment to effectively motivate the offline store. The optimal commission contract can motivate the offline store in different ways, since the adjustment of the fixed payment can encourage the offline store to participate in the cooperation and the adjustment of the commission rate can encourage the offline store to provide service. Meanwhile, cross-selling partially substitutes the incentive role the commission contract plays under certain conditions. But when the offline store's cross-selling revenue is high type, the cross-selling revenue will exacerbate the adverse effect of asymmetric information on fixed payment, while the low cross-selling revenue will counteract the adverse effect of asymmetric information on fixed payment. The existence of information asymmetry leads to the change of commission contract parameters. Further, the information asymmetry may not decrease the performance of O2O supply chain or generate extra information rent. Moreover, cross-selling is favorable for the online retailer under certain conditions, but not for the offline store. Practical and theoretical guidance is provided in this paper to improve the value of the offline to online supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis of Oil Consumption under Different Regional Industrialization-An Empirical Study Based on Path-STR Model CHAI Jian, LIANG Ting, ZHOU You-hong, WANG Shou-yang, KIN Keung-lAI 2017, 25 (11):  47-57.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.005 Abstract ( 1011 )   PDF (1765KB) ( 416 )   Save The economic globalization and the complexity of the oil demand-supply system complicate the relationship between oil consumption and its factors. In this paper the overall factor, structural factors and price factor which affect the oil consumption are obtained based on literature reviews and theoretical analysis. And then, the path analysis using the statistical data from 1995 to 2015 is applied to calculate the direct impact, indirect impact and total impact of the various factors on oil consumption, the results indicate that economic growth, industrialization and international crude oil prices are the main affect factors of oil consumption. And Johansen Co-integration test suggests that there is a long-term and stable relationship between these four variables. Next, the smooth transition regression (STR) method is employed to further examine the effect of factors on oil consumption and the following conclusion are drawn. Firstly, there is a nonlinear relationship between industrialization and oil consumption. Its obvious dynamic characteristics with regime conversion can be described by LSTR2 model perfectly. Secondly, when the first lagged industrialization dLnindt-1 is in the regime of below -0.0045 or in the high regime of above 0.0228, the first lagged industrialization have a negative impact on the oil consumption, which the nonlinear feature is most obvious. While the first lagged industrialization is in the mid-regime, the effect of industrialization on oil consumption is gradually shifted from the negative and passive influence to the stably linear and positive influence. The results also suggest that this nonlinear relationship makes economic growth and international oil price have a complex impact on oil consumption in economic-energy systems. This provides reference for our country to make economic policies adapting to energy conservation and energy structure optimization in different industrial period in China. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on International Supply Chain Production Planning with the Consideration of Different Carbon Emission Cap-and-trade Systems HUANG Zhi-cheng, ZHAO Lin-du, WANG Min, OUYANG Jiao 2017, 25 (11):  58-65.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.006 Abstract ( 987 )   PDF (4068KB) ( 720 )   Save In order to curb global climate change caused by carbon emission, an increasing amount of governments have launched carbon emission cap-and-trade systems to motivate emission reduction in their countries. The different carbon emission cap-and-trade systems in different countries or regions bring both challenge and opportunity to multinational corporations. The challenge lies on carbon emission reduction because emission causes extra operational cost. While corporations can take the opportunity to reduce operational cost by reallocating production in different regions. Therefore, under the background of international supply chain, traditional supply chain production planning model is extended and two cap-and-trade systems, one with fixed carbon emission price and another with variable carbon emission price are considered. After solving the international supply chain production planning model under different carbon cap-and-trade systems, the influence of different carbon emission price mechanisms and synchronous adjustment of carbon cap and trading price is analyzed. The influence analysis is made from perspectives of regions, the manufacturer, and the whole supply chain. It is shown that the production planning model established in our paper provides decision support for international supply chains on production allocation and factory location, and also brings suggestions to international and regional carbon policy-makers to reduce carbon emission. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Consumer Decision-making Interaction Behavior in New Product Diffusion Based on Regret Theory and Multi-Agent Simulation WEI Xiao-chao, LI Yan-feng, NIE Gui-hua, CHEN Dong-lin 2017, 25 (11):  66-75.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.007 Abstract ( 1203 )   PDF (5183KB) ( 639 )   Save The dynamics of new products diffusion not only emerge partly from the interaction among heterogeneous consumers in social ecommerce, but also depend on consumers' psychology behavior. Accordingly, the psychology theory is worth being introduced to explore the evolution of new product diffusion.An agent-based simulation model is built to study the new product diffusion, based on the regret theory and evolutionary game theory, which can be used to support dynamic management for new product marketing.Firstly, an evolutionary game model is proposed to depict the interaction between consumers in social ecommerce, by extending a traditional symmetric game to a dynamic game. Then, the evolution learning rules are designed based on the regret theory, taking the historical information and neighbor characters into consideration. At last, using Anylogic 6.5.0, a multi-agent simulation system is developed, and then a series of simulation experiments are performed and analysed. Simulation results reveal that:(1) The product benefit has a positive effect on the stability of diffusion dynamics.Higher product benefit can result in more stable (volatile) in the diffusion process. (2) The new product diffusion also depends on the cost of product diffusion and the loss from adopting refuse strategy. The group will more likely have the Tit-for-Tat (retaliation) issue when the two variables are equivalent. If the diffusion cost is higher,the dominate strategy is refuse, and vice versa. (3)The communication strength of consumers in market is positively associated with the volatility of diffusion dynamics. The greater communication strength of consumers indicates more obvious volatility of diffusion, while the weaker communication strength more likely result in the stability of group behavior. This research can make some contributions to new product marketing, and provides a new framework to combine psychology theories and simulation models. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Relationship Between Manufacturer's Targeted Advertising and Retailer's Targeted Pricing ZHANG Jian-qiang, ZHONG Wei-jun 2017, 25 (11):  76-84.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.008 Abstract ( 917 )   PDF (1372KB) ( 421 )   Save In this paper, studies the interrelationship between the manufacturer's targeted advertising strategy and the retailer's targeted pricing strategy is studied in a two-echelon distribution channel. The market is segmented into two types of consumers:the ones who have a high valuation for the product and the ones who value the product less. Consumers can be informed about the existence of the product only through the manufacturer's advertising. A four-stage game is modelled:In the first stage, the retailer decides whether to acquire the ability of targeted pricing. In the second stage, the manufacturer decides whether to acquire the ability of targeted advertising and once it owns the targeting capability, it also decides how many customers to advertise to. In the third stage, the manufacturer decides the wholesale price. In the fourth stage, the retailer decides the selling price and if it owns the targeting capability, it can charge different prices toward different consumer segments. Using backward induction method, the equilibrium results including the manufacturer's advertising strategy and the retailer's pricing strategy are derived. It is found that targeted advertising not only saves advertising cost but also helps the manufacturer extract more channel profits, thereby making the retailer worse off. This is because by advertising only to one consumer segment, the manufacturer is able to reduce the heterogeneity among consumers, under which the manufacturer needs not to sacrifice on wholesale price to induce full market coverage. The retailer, on the other hand, can use targeted pricing to extract more consumer surplus. However, the retailer may not enjoy the fruit of targeted pricing due to the manufacturer's free-riding behavior:expecting that the retailer has more pricing flexibility, the manufacturer will raise the wholesale price to appropriate more channel profits. Surprisingly, although harmful, the retailer may still apply targeted pricing to maintain equilibrium. This counter-intuitive finding lies in that targeted pricing can work as a strategic tool to discourage the manufacturer from launching targeted advertising. That is, if the retailer implements targeted pricing, the manufacturer tends to apply uniform advertising that will leave the retailer a fraction of channel profit; while if the retailer does not use targeted pricing, the manufacturer tends to introduce targeted advertising that will leave the retailer zero profit. As a result, the retailer will optimally choose targeted pricing in order to induce uniform advertising. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Trade Credit Contracts Design by an Informed Principal in Retailer-dominant Supply Chain YAN Ren-xiu, WANG Xian-yu 2017, 25 (11):  85-93.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.009 Abstract ( 953 )   PDF (1741KB) ( 438 )   Save Mechanism design by an informed principal needs to take into account the informational leakage taking place when offering a contract to the agent. In this paper, the problem of contract design by an informed principal under trade credit in supply chain is investigated. More specifically, a supply chain consisting of a risk-neural supplier and a risk-neural retailer is considered. As the core enterprise, the retailer finances the inventory using trade credit from the supplier. By the Revelation Principle, we design the low-information-intensity optimum allocation (LⅡ) with incentive compatibility is designed, to realize the informational leakage to the supplier, and avoid the imitation between different types of retailers. By means of the mechanism way of deriving the equilibrium applied by Tirole, it is found that under the weak monotonic profit assumption, the separating allocation is the LⅡ. It's also shown that to sign the true type to the supplier, the optimal contracts for the retailer with higher ability entails an upward distortion, which causes signaling cost. And the degree of distortion decreases with the increase of the retailer's initial capital. Meanwhile, the contracts have restrictions of the initial capital. Furthermore, the interim-efficient allocation (IE) is presented to analyze the perfect Bayesian equilibrium (PBE) of the game. It can be shown that the LⅡ is the unique PBE for certain supplier's ax ante belief. Otherwise, the set of equilibrium payoffs for the two types of retailers weakly Pareto-dominate the LⅡ. And the (IE) still present the same distorted characteristic as the LⅡ, but has lower restrictions on the retailer's initial capital. Our research will provide some theoretical basis and practical guidance for the mechanism design by an informed principal under trade credit in supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Method for Selecting Desirable Product(s) Based on Online Rating Information and Customer's Aspirations YOU Tian-hui, ZHANG Jin, FAN Zhi-ping 2017, 25 (11):  94-102.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.010 Abstract ( 1002 )   PDF (710KB) ( 495 )   Save In recent years, a large number of online ratings information about products has emerged on many ecommerce business websites, these online ratings information have significant impact on consumers' understanding products and making purchase decisions. In reality, to make purchase decisions, consumer usually pour their attention to online ratings information of each attribute for products, and give their aspiration of online ratings information of each attribute for alternative products according to their demands. Accordingly, how to select desirable product(s) based on online ratings information and customer's aspirations, it is a noteworthy research issue. On the basis, a method is proposed in this paper for the desirable product(s) selection considering online ratings information and customer's aspiration based on the prospect stochastic dominance. In the method, first, the online ratings information of each attribute for alternative products is crawled by web crawler software, and the gain and loss for the alternative products can be calculated using the attribute rating value and the attribute aspiration, and then the probability distributions about the gain and loss results of each attribute for products are determined according to the obtained gain and loss values. On the basis, the cumulative distribution functions of gain and loss results and their expectations are obtained. Then, based on the obtained cumulative distribution functions of gain and loss values and their expectations, the prospect stochastic dominance relation matrices on pairwise comparisons of products with respect to each attribute are established according to the prospect stochastic dominance rule. Next, the degree of dominance on pairwise comparisons of each attribute of alternative products are calculated using PROMETHEE-Ⅱ method, and the overall dominance degrees matrix for pairwise comparison of products is built using the simple additive weighting method, according to the obtained overall dominance degrees matrix, the "outflow", "inflow" and the ranking values of each alternative products are calculated, respectively. Furthermore, a ranking of the alternative products is determined based on the obtained ranking values Finally, in order to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method, a case study about car selection is provided based on the online ratings information from the auto-home website. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Concession Period Decision Model of the Traffic Franchise Project Under the Different Forms of Cooperation YAN Xue, XU Yuan, SHENG Zhao-han, WANG Ge, XU Feng 2017, 25 (11):  103-110.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.011 Abstract ( 1065 )   PDF (752KB) ( 503 )   Save In the process of the franchise project construction, there are two different forms of cooperation between the government and the private:the full cooperation and the non-full cooperation. Under the full cooperation, the government and the private sector are integrated into a whole body to jointly build projects, and the government shares profits and risks with the private sector. Under the non-full cooperation, the private undertakes the job of investment, financing, construction and management of the project, while the government only has the right to supervise the project, and they do not have its management right. This leads to the differences on the decision objects of the two forms of cooperation. Under the full cooperation, the government and the private have the same goal, namely maximizing the total social welfare of the toll road throughout its life cycle. Hence, a single objective concession period decision model is established. However, under the non-full cooperation, the government only focuses on the social welfare of the project during the transfer period, while the private only focuses on the economic benefits during the franchising period. Based on these, a bi-objective concession period decision making model is built to maximize the private's and the government's benefits. In this paper, there may be some conflicts of interest between the two sides, so the negotiation power is introduced to assess the ability of one side against the other side eroding its benefits. Then, the influence of the private's negotiation power on concession period decision is analyzed. The conclusions are:under the full cooperation, the negotiation power has no influence on the concession period decision, and the concession period is the entire project life; under the non-full cooperation, the private's negotiation power has a positive impact on the length of concession road and the total social welfare which is created by the toll road. Furthermore, when the private's negotiation power is weak, it can prove the bargaining position by raising the profit level of the unit operation cost to extend the concession period, and to gain more benefits. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Pricing for New and Remanufactured Products Based on the Competition Between OEM and IR MENG Li-jun, HUANG Zu-qing, ZHANG Bao-you, YANG Yu-xiang 2017, 25 (11):  111-121.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.012 Abstract ( 954 )   PDF (2036KB) ( 462 )   Save The residual value inherent in used products can make remanufacturing a profitable activity for OEMs, so many OEMS choose to sell remanufactured products. At the same time, there may be third-parties remanufacturers that remanufacture the used products originally sold by the OEM. However, in the academic field of closed-loop supply chain,thus far, few researches has been conducted on investigating the optimal pricing problem of new product and differentiated remanufactured product. In this paper, a two-period game-theoretic model with a monopolist manufacturer in the first period and duopoly of manufacturer and independent remanufacturer in the second period is developed. It is assumed that the OEM may remanufacture the used product returned by customer while manufacturing new product and the third-party remanufacturer competes with the manufacturer by remanufacturing the used product too. It is also assumed that customer's willingness to pay for remanufactured products is less than their willingness to pay for new products. Based on these assumptions, a Stackelberg game is employed to analyzed the OEM and independent remanufacture 's pricing strategies where the former act as the leader and the latter act as a follower.The optimal pricing strategies for the OEM and IR are obtained. The results suggest that, the OEM can use his first period price to blunt the independent remanufacturer's ability to compete in period 2. Based on numerical study, our results show the reduced remanufacturing cost of IR does not influence on the OEM's profitability and its optimal pricing strategy for new products. There exists a threshold on the valuation of remanufactured product for the monopolist. If the valuation is too low, OEM brings its own loss of profits while preventing IR into the market. If the valuation of remanufactured product, IR competes with OEM, that reducing the OEM's profit. These results can help the OEM to choose the optimal pricing strategy for its product to enhance his profit, and give some suggestion on how to guide the consumer perception of remanufactured product for OEM. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Interest-balancing Analysis on Metal Mineral Resources Ecological Compensation Under the Construction of Ecological Civilization System JIA Shu-xian, HUANG Jian-bai, ZHONG Mei-rui 2017, 25 (11):  122-133.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.013 Abstract ( 798 )   PDF (1890KB) ( 550 )   Save The exploitation of metal mineral resources is a complex and socially systematic project involving conflicts of the interests of all parties and ecological security. Ecological compensation is an effective system to coordinate the interests of all parties and to ensure the ecological security.Based on this background,the balance of interests of ecological compensation under the condition of the construction of ecological civilization system in the field of mineral resourcesis is analyzed.The interest equilibrium and dynamic evolutionary process of the central government,local government,local enterprises and local residents is analyzed by using the game theory in the exploitation of metal mineral resources.In addition to taking into account the complex interest demands of the interests and the existence of the strong reciprocity group,the conditions which are needed to achieve the desired equilibrium results are reached. The following conclusions are drawn through the analysis of the conditions.The strategy choice of the game between central government and local government is affected by the revenues,the cost of compensation,the financial transfer payment,the punishment dynamics,and the strong reciprocity behavior.The strategy choice of the game between local government and local enterprises is affected by the revenues,supervision costs,taxes and fees,fines,governance costs and government incentives.The strategy choice of the game between local enterprises and local residents is affected by revenues,compensation costs,cost of resistance and government incentives. And on this basis,in order to verify the conditions needed for the equilibrium,the Dexing copper mine which is a typical case of the complex interest demands is analyzed. In this process,not only the value of relevant parameters is estimated by using the ecological value equivalent method,corrected human capital method,cost of illness method,market value method,substitution method,opportunity cost method,shadow price method and modern space information technology,but also the data is calculated by using statistical data. After numerical simulation is carried out with MATLAB software,the consistency between the real equilibrium and the expected equilibrium is analyzed. Further more it is verified that the model and the equalization result is universal and extensible.Moreover,the corresponding counter measures of ecological compensation are out forward. It also provides a new thoughts and analysis theoretical framework to solve the problem of the balance of interests of ecological compensation in the field of mineral resources. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Change Rule of Loss Distribution Approach's Measurement Error under the Pareto Distribution MO Jian-ming, LV Gang, GAO Xiang, QING Shu-tao 2017, 25 (11):  134-142.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.014 Abstract ( 861 )   PDF (815KB) ( 477 )   Save According to the extreme value statistical theory, unexpected loss estimation in a heavy-tailed distribution objectively has uncertainty that cannot be neglected in a high confidence level. Existing empirical research shows that the operating loss intensity distribution has a significant heavy-tailed quality. Therefore, under the loss distribution approach, namely in the composite distribution compounded of heavy-tailed operating loss intensity distribution and loss frequency distribution, the regulatory capital of operational risk is in great uncertainty that cannot be neglected. The uncertainty of regulatory capital is mainly from model error and measurement error. In the existing theory, the model biases are unpredictable, and only the model parameter estimation error caused by the measurement error can be predicted. Therefore, in the condition of fixing measurement model and the model deviation is invariable, only the measurement error changes. Theoretical research shows that only Pareto distribution is heavy-tailed distribution in the generalized Pareto distribution. Therefore, the operational risk measurement is taken for example in this paper. After measuring error variation by loss distribution approach in Pareto distribution, it is found:As the operational risk increases and the regulatory capital increases progressively, and under the influence of characteristics parameters of loss intensity distribution, the measurement error increases. Under the influence of frequency parameters, when the shape parameter is greater than 1, the measurement error increases. However, when the shape parameter is less than 1, the measurement error trend line has multiple extreme points. Furthermore, according to the fitting results of operating loss frequency distribution and loss intensity distribution using the Basel committee operating loss data samples, they can verify the validity of the proposed theoretical model in this paper. Thus' it can be seen that with the changes in regulatory capital, the measurement error changes in high sensitivity, and this means that the measurement error of regulatory capital is unpredictable. Within the range of measurement error, there exists the extreme points, and in the condition of these extreme risk, the measurement error becomes very large (tends to infinity) in relative to the regulatory capital. At this moment, the reliability of the measurement results cannot be accurately evaluated. Obviously, when loss intensity distribution is a heavy-tail distribution, the measurement results may appear serious faults with the loss distribution approach in a high confidence level. Furthermore, the regularity of error variation measured by loss distribution approach when the loss intensity has a significant heavy tail and lays a theoretical foundation for applying LDA in heavy-tailed risk measurement is explored. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Early Warning Factor Analysis of Psychological Crisis of College Students Based on Double Limited Dominance Rough Set ZHANG Yong, LIU Xin-bao, ZHAO Li-xin, XIA Jing-fan, ZHANG Li 2017, 25 (11):  143-150.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.015 Abstract ( 944 )   PDF (868KB) ( 389 )   Save In order to recognize psychological crisis of college students effectively, according to the education statistics theory, a classification method based on dominance relation is used and a double limited dominance rough set approach and calculation method for early warning information system of psychological crisis of college students is established in this paper. According to the known properties values of each attribute of information system, the probability distribution is calculated. And the probability threshold is selected and compared with the obtained advantages of probability to realize the dominance relation judgment between each object. In addition, a comprehensive comparison and analysis of attribute reduction effect under different threshold probability is made to obtain the main factors of psychological crisis of college students. According to the questionnaire survey and comparative analysis and calculation, it indicates that the obtained simplified results is more applicable, and has higher accuracy and a lower error rate of classification. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Bi-level Programming Model and Algorithmof Location-routing Problem in Emergency Logistics LOU Zhen-kai 2017, 25 (11):  151-157.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.016 Abstract ( 1145 )   PDF (1029KB) ( 583 )   Save To optimize emergency logistics distribution system for natural disasters like floods and earthquakes, a bi-level programming model of location allocation-vehicle routing problem is set up by considering the characteristics that government and enterprises participate together but make decision separately. The upper level is to minimize the total time of emergency logistics system, and the lower level is to minimize the sum of distribution costs and time penalty cost. According to the characteristic of independent decision-making and interaction effect in upper and lower level in the model, the problem is broken up into two stages. In the first stage, viable gathers of distribution center are produced. In the second stage, vehicles and transport routes are arranged under viable gathers. A heuristic rule of two stage hybrid simulated annealing algorithm, one-phase tabu search,is designed to determine feasible emergency distribution center collections. The initial solution is construeted by principle of greedy proximity. Code is exchanged to search neighborhood feasible solution. The optimal solution is recorded and updated unloading and driving time is accumulated and output as the basis of the upper decision. Finally a numerical example and the comparing hybrid genetic algorithm are given to verify the validity of the model and the feasibility of the algorithm. A solution for emergency logistics system planning problem of multi-level decision is provided. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Coordination Mechanism of Government Emergency Supplies Procurement Under Price Flexibility Contract ZHANG Lin, TIAN Jun, FENG Geng-zhong 2017, 25 (11):  158-167.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.017 Abstract ( 949 )   PDF (2008KB) ( 483 )   Save Physical reserves with the shortest response time plays an important role in emergency situation to meet the urgent and huge demand, especially when sudden-onset disasters happen. As the entity who takes the responsibility of dealing with emergencies, the government must ensure abundant supplies are reserved in advance. Cooperation with supplier is necessary for the government to expand the holding capacity and to reduce costs. Contracts are widely used in commercial supply chain, but less popular in humanitarian supply chain because of the uncertain demands and complex situations. The contract form and factors to consider should adapt to unique characteristics of emergency situations. On one hand, when disasters happen, the market prices of necessary products are likely to increase. A moderately increased price is reasonable because of the high demand and rising costs. A recently published consultation paper also illustrates the legitimacy of slightly increased market prices. Therefore, for the purchased supplies under emergency situations,the rising market price should be considered to protect the supplier's profit and firm the government-supplier cooperation. Meanwhile, considering the uncertainty of demand quantity, subsidizing the contracted but unpurchased supplies is also necessary to cover the supplier's costs of production, holding, et al. In a contract, participants' goals and interests tend to be different, and then a game will exist. Since the emergency procurement is a buyer-led market, a government-led Stackelberg game is established in this paper. Considering the unique characteristics of emergency situation, a price flexibility contract is constructed, which consists of a basic payment, a price difference subsidy and a subsidy for unpurchased supplies. Through deduction and numerical calculation, it is proved and confirmed that the supply chain is coordinated under the price flexibility contract. Profits (saving costs) can be distributed between the government and the supplier by adjusting the basic payment. Besides, at a basic payment level, arbitrary combination of the price difference subsidy and unpurchased supplies subsidy increases the flexibility of contract's implementation. In this research, the abrupt market price's influence on participants' decisions is emphasized and proved by introducing price difference subsidy, and also its importance to the contract's feasibility and flexibility is demonstrated. In general, contributions are made to the literature on emergency supplies procurement management and contract theory, and assistace for the government is provided to decide how to cooperate with suppliers in reality for emergency purpose. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Organization-Employee Development Point Model and Its Application YU Shun-kun, YANG Wen-yin 2017, 25 (11):  168-178.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.018 Abstract ( 1043 )   PDF (3834KB) ( 553 )   Save The sustainable development of talents is necessary for the development of enterprises, and the employees' development is supported by the organization platform. To solve the imperfection of development paths and fuzziness of development criterion, first, by analyzing and comparing the existing theoretical results of career development paths, an "inverted cone career development model" is proposed from the Person-Post Matching perspective based on win-win concept of the organization's employee development. On its basis, a career development venation with representativeness is put forward. Second, a factor model which influences the organization's employee development is built based on the Grounded Theory, forming a quantitative study basis of organization's employee development management. Last, by converting the factors into development points' items, an organization's employee development points' model is constructed, which can quantify the staffs' career development as a periodic cycle from establishing developing goals, confirming development points' items, carrying the corresponding study through, passing the development points' evaluation to becoming a reserve talent. Above all, the results of this article provide a new research insight to the organization's employee development management,fill the gap of its quantitative study and has been practiced, demonstrated its validity. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis on Carbon Abatement Investment Strategy for Thermal Power Generation-Companies in Carbon Dispatching Mode ZHANG Xin-hua, LU Can-hua, CHEN Zhi-wei 2017, 25 (11):  179-188.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.019 Abstract ( 858 )   PDF (1917KB) ( 492 )   Save The Chinese government has already announced the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The survey report denotes that China's carbon emissions are mainly derived from the energy industry, primarily coal. At present, coal-fired power generation capacity accounts for about 75% of the total generation capacity, and thermal power generation accounts for about 80% of the gross generation in China. Therefore, the implementation of carbon abatement policy in the power market is crucial to achieve the goal of China's carbon emissions goals. Currently, carbon abatement measures in power market can be divided into two categories:long term and short term measures. The short-term measures are to reduce carbon emissions through optimize carbon dispatching mechanism,and the long-term measures include developing the renewable energy (e.g. hydroelectric, wind power, photovoltaic, etc.), or upgrading the existing thermal power generator units to reduce carbon emissions per unit. In fact, the generation of coal-fired power units is mainly determined based on its generation capacity, currently, and the carbon emission levels of generating units were neglected in China. Therefore, the generating units with high carbon emissions have no incentives to make investment in carbon abatement. In the other hand, most existing literatures are based on the assumption of mature carbon market. However, it may take some time to establish the real carbon market in China. Therefore, this paper establishes a framework aiming to minimize the power generation cost while satisfying carbon emissions constraints. Moreover, the carbon abatement investment model considering asymmetric carbon emission in oligopoly market was proposed based on the option game theory, to explore the carbon abatement investment strategy for naive and rational thermal power generation-companies, whose numerical analysis results show that, a) generation company's investment behaviours are largely affected by a threshold of feed-in tariff after the carbon abatement investment. When the feed-in tariff is lower than the threshold, only low emission generation-companies have the motives to make carbon abatement investment; when the feed-in tariff is higher than the threshold, high emission generation-companies will lead to the carbon abatement investment; only when feed-in tariff is equal to the threshold, two power generation-companies to invest carbon abatement at the same time. b) The threshold related to the parameters such as carbon emissions standards. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Joint Optimal Multi-product Production and Non-cyclical Preventive Maintenance Planning Model LIU Xue-juan, ZHAO Fei, MA Xiao-yang 2017, 25 (11):  189-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.11.020 Abstract ( 1010 )   PDF (910KB) ( 544 )   Save The production and maintenance activities share the same system in reality, so the conflict is inevitably generated. If the arrangement of the production plan and the maintenance schedule are not reasonable, the shortage of the products and the improper maintenance (inadequate maintenance or excessive maintenance) may occur. To avoid this negative influence, the integrated model of the production planning problem of discrete manufacturing industry and non-cyclical preventive maintenance is proposed in this paper. The finite production planning horizon is composed of several equal-length periods. in each period, the demands of multi product should be satisfied by the production quantity in this period and the inventory of last period, otherwise, the backorder will happen. The non-cyclical preventive maintenance can be carried out at the end of some production periods, and the minor repair is used to deal with system failures. The occupation of production capacity is composed of maintenance and system setup. In each period, the time can be used to product is equal to the length of the period minus the maintenance and setup time, and the actual running time of system is used to formulate the failure numbers. Furthermore, the maintenance time of failure can be presented. Then' the integrated production and maintenance model is developed in the form of mathematical programming. The objective of the model is to determining the optimal production panning and preventive maintenance sequence that minimizes the sum of the production cost, inventory cost, setup cost and maintenance cost. Based on the production data of steel grating gathered from a steel facility, a case study is presented to illustrate the integrated model, the optimal production plan and the optimal maintenance schedule are determined simultaneously. Moreover the result shows that the optimal maintenance schedule is not cyclical, since the non-cyclical maintenance policy presents more maintenance sequences than that presented by cyclical maintenance policy. References | Related Articles | Metrics