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20 December 2017, Volume 25 Issue 12 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Performance-sensitive Debt on the Asset Liquidity LIU Qi, YANG Zhao-jun 2017, 25 (12):  1-8.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.001 Abstract ( 1310 )   PDF (2306KB) ( 906 )   Save In practice, the financing process is not only expensive but also hard to handle with. The tax reduction effect for the debt provides many firms with a good choice to seek more debt financing tools in the market. A newly innovation product, performance-sensitivity debt(PSD), is then revived in the bond market. The good feature it owns is that it tights its coupon rate with the performance of the firm by the factor θ. For a financially-constrained firm, the financing cost differs from inside to outside, so there exists the optimal financing choice when the cash inventory is considered as a state variable. It is known that the cash inventory is an important factor in the ordinary management process for it not only provides the precaution demand but carries some opportunity cost. Thus the equity-holders need to avoid costly liquidation process and choose a proper payout boundary. By deciding the region where the cash inventory lies, the ODEs for the equity value and debt value can be gotter, and then the financing choice problem is formulated. By numerical simulations, it is found that the higher desire for the debt will promote the equity-holder to choose this new type of debt. Higher correlation with the performance of the firm will increase the equity value and decrease the leverage. Besides this, an exact financing solution is given for the data. Comparative statics states that the payout process is delayed, the firm value is increased and the the leverage is decreased with a higher profitabilityμ, a higher interest rate rand a small tax rate τc. In addition, PSD can restrain the firm to overuse the high volatility behavior. The economic phenomena "debt conservation effect" is valid under this framework. Therefore, our analysis provide theoretical and practical guide to use this debt financing tools and build a proper financing structure using PSD. As a vice product, how PSD affects the liquidity of a financially-constrained firm is stated. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Inventory Optimization Model of Perishable Product with Controlled Deterioration Rate under Trade Credit WEI Guang-ming, QIN Juan-juan, WANG Kun, ZHANG Xi 2017, 25 (12):  9-16.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.002 Abstract ( 1031 )   PDF (616KB) ( 868 )   Save Many firms selling the perishable products adopt the trade credit strategy; meanwhile, they employ a certain technology to reduce the deterioration rate of the products. Therefore,in this paper, the affection of the preservation technology investment is considered to the deterioration rate of the perishable goods, to discuss the purchaser's optimal ordering strategy and technology investment strategies in the trade credit payment mode. First of all, according to the trade credit period and the ordering cycle, the relationship between the purchaser's interest income and the interest payments are divided into the two cases.Secondly, by theoretical derivation, the optimal order strategies can be obtained and give out the optimal preservation technology investment strategy is given out. Finally, the theorem and the conclusions of this paper are verified by the numerical analysis, and also make sensitivity analysis of parameters. It is found that, when the preservation technology investment has a strong influence on the deteriorating rate, the purchaser preservation technology investment is low and the optimal order cycle is prolonged; when the natural deteriorating rate of the product increases, the purchaser increases the investment amount of preservation technology in order to reduce the deterioration rate, and its profit decreases; when the credit period given by supplier to procurement business increases, the firm's optimal preservation technology investment amount and order cycle decrease and its profit increases. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Duopoly Enterprises' Strategies for Consumer Environmental Awareness under Carbon-Emission-Trading Mechanism DENG Wan-jiang, MA Shi-hua, GUAN Xu 2017, 25 (12):  17-26.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.003 Abstract ( 1239 )   PDF (2786KB) ( 1048 )   Save As it has become a worldwide concern that how to reduce carbon emissions effectively, more and more firms take low-carbon operations into account when producing and selling eco-friendly products. On one hand, in China, the reform of carbon-emission-trading provides firms with new opportunities to develop the market; on the other hand, the increment of environmental awareness makes consumers prefer eco-friendly products. So,in this paper, the integrated impact of carbon-emission-trading mechanism and consumer environmental awareness on duopoly enterprises is investigated. A two-stage duopoly competition model is built, where two manufacturers simultaneously decide the investment levels on low-carbon technologies in the first stage and then simultaneously set the selling prices of their products in the second stage. Based on that, the backward induction method is adopted to derive the optimal decisions about the low-carbon investment and the selling price for each firm. Similarly, another scenario wherein both firms are assumed as the price takers is dissussed, which means that the product selling price is exogenously decided by the market. Under either scenario, comparative analysis is also implemented based on the equilibrium results for two manufacturers with unequal initial market shares. The results reveal that the carbon-emission-trading price, the unit environmental improvement cost and the consumer environmental awareness jointly exert a significant effect on firms' optimal strategies, including both the carbon reduction investment strategy and the pricing strategy. In specific, our main findings are concluded as follows:1) No matter whether the duopoly manufacturers are price takers or not, there always exist the equilibrium results. 2) When the cost of emission reduction technologies is high and the price of carbon emission permits is low, the firm with a larger initial market share will invest more on new technologies; but when the investment cost becomes low and the permit price becomes high, the firm with a smaller initial market share tends to invest more on the new technologies to attract more consumers with high environmental awareness. 3) The numerical results show that the firm with a larger initial market share will make more profit when the investment cost is high and the permit price is low, but when the investment cost becomes very low and the permit price becomes very hign the firm with a smaller initial market share could make even more profit than the larger firm. However, the numerical studies also imply that the reverse that the smaller firm exceeds the larger firm in the aspect of either the emission reduction level or the profit occurs rarely. All in all, the integrated impacts incured by the carbon-emission-trading price, the carbon reduction investment cost and the consumer environmental awareness on the duopoly firms' competitive strategies about low-carbon investment and pricing are investigated. The equilibrium results provide an important managerial insight that the smaller firm can make more profit than the larger firm if he seizes the opportunity of carbon-emission-trading mechanism to increase the investment on low-carbon technologies when either the cost on new technologies is very low or the trading price of carbon emission permits is very high. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing and Channel Strategies in Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Considering Price Cap Policy and Public Welfare DAN Bin, Li Shi-yang, ZHOU Mao-sen, Wang Da-fei 2017, 25 (12):  27-38.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.004 Abstract ( 1104 )   PDF (2321KB) ( 828 )   Save In the era of the Internet, the self-medication becomes an important method to keep healthy because of the convenience of consulting and buying pharmaceuticals online. To achieve more market share, pharmaceuticals providers choose to add an online channel to sell pharmaceuticals, which competes with medical institutions. However, medical institutions need to get profits from pharmaceuticals profits for self-development because of the policy named "pharmaceuticals-maintaining-medicine". The addition of online channel leads to the profit decrease of medical institutions, which causes the resistant of medical institutions. To prevent the profit decrease of pharmaceuticals caused by the prescription leakage, some medical institutions adopt "code prescription". Thus, there exists one reality problem which needs to be solved in pharmaceuticals supply chain, namely, how to mitigate the impact of profit decrease of medical institutions when an online channel is added. Focused on the channel conflict caused by pharmaceuticals providers adding an online channel to sell pharmaceuticals, the price cap policy and public welfare are taken into consideration to establish price decision models in different channel strategies, where the medical institution was the leader and followed by pharmaceuticals providers. Further, the impact of some parameters, including price cap policy and public welfare and self-medication, on the equilibrium results is analyzed. And then, the optimal channel strategies are proposed and the impact of added online channel on traditional pharmaceutical supply chain from the perspective of supply chain and the perspective of public welfare is analyzed, respectively. Finally, the pharmaceutical policy and proposed corresponding managerial insights combined with the analysis result are analyzed. Firstly,the impact of price cap policy and public welfare of medical institution on the pricing and performance of pharmaceutical supply chain in single channel strategy and dual channel strategy is analyzed respectively. The studies show that, when the price cap is low, the optimal price of medical institution equals to the price cap, while the price of online channel won't be influenced by the price cap. When the pharmaceutical price of medical institutions is regulated, lowering price cap can increase supply chain profit and enhance social welfare. When the price cap of medical institutions isn't regulated, improving public welfare of medical institutions would decrease the pharmaceutical price and increase supply chain profit along with social welfare. Afterwards, the system performance in the single channel strategy is compared with that in dual channel strategy. The results show that, when the pharmaceutical providers add the online channel, the profit of pharmaceutical providers and consumer surplus will increase while the profit and utility of medical institution will decrease,which causes the resistance of medical institution. Furthermore, it is found, when the price cap is relatively low, the channel conflict between the medical institution and pharmaceutical providers cannot be coordinated. When the price cap is relatively low and the public welfare is high or the price cap is unconstrained, the channel conflict can eliminate by coordination contracts and generate larger social welfare. Finally, the opportunity and challenge of pharmaceutical providers to add an online channel is evaluated and management enlightenments are put forward correspondingly. The results show that, when the price cap is relatively low, increasing the price cap or abolish the price cap policy is benefit for the development of pharmaceutical dual channel supply chain. When the price cap is relatively high, the resistance of medical institution for the added online channel will be eliminated by designing the appropriate profit transfer contract. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis of Supply Chain Model of Business Interruption Insurance Under the Supply Risk YU Hui, WU Teng-fei 2017, 25 (12):  39-47.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.005 Abstract ( 1071 )   PDF (2598KB) ( 1128 )   Save A variety of emergencies and disasters are more and more frequently striking the supply chain, and the supply chain globalization further exacerbates the supply chain risk, especially supply risk. The business interruption insurance is an important means of risk management. So the application of business interruption insurance in supply chain risk management is an important opportunity for combining operation with finance. From the perspective of supply chain risk management and combination of operation and insurance, a supplier is considered to transfer the supply risk through the business interruption insurance in the context of supply and demand uncertainty. By depicting a supply chain model with the supplier, retailer and insurance company involved in the game, interactions of the supply chain with the business interruption insurance and the problem of premium rate are explored. In the model, the insurance company makes the premium rate r first, then the supplier decides the wholesale pricewand the insurance coverage L at the same time, lastly the retailer decides its order quantity q. The double integral and convex optimization method are applied to study the trilateral game model, and by the zero point theorem, monotonicity and concavity and convexity of continuous function, the existence and uniqueness of the optimal rate is proved. In this paper, the model without insurance of supplier is regarded as basic model, By contrasting the insuring situation with it, the interaction between supply chain and business interruption insurance is discovered. The numerical analysis shows the comparison of the order quantity, the wholesale price and the profit of supply chain members between the insuring situation and the situation without insurance. The study finds that the insuring can achieve a tripartite win-win situation after the insurance company makes a reasonable rate by weighing the premium investment income and supply risk. Not only have profits of supply chain members been increased, but also the insurance company can benefit, and the supply chain cooperation and application of the insurance promote each other. The combining supply chain with insurance is investigated, providing a brand new perspective for the study of the traditional supply chain risk management. The exploring to the return effect of supply chain cooperation on business interruption insurance offers an entry point for the popularization study of the insurance. In addition, a preliminary exploration on the decision making of business interruption insurance premium rate is made, which lays a foundation for the further study on the premium rate decision of the business interruption insurance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Decision-making of Hidden Interest Delivery for Multinational Supply Chain with Transfer Pricing LI Ji-zi, WANG Zhong-rui, LIU Chun-ling 2017, 25 (12):  48-58.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.006 Abstract ( 1077 )   PDF (4793KB) ( 659 )   Save With the development of global economy, the multinationals search for relevant resources worldwide and optimize its supply chain. Domestic companies, due to increase in labor cost and fierce competition, are forced to invest overseas and establish the factories, and shape its own supply chain network system through integrating domestic and oversea market. In this way, domestic companies ease competition press and sharp the advantages through allocating resources worldwide. Beyond profit from market demand, another unique profit channel for multinational is from interest delivery via transfer price. Up to now, while existing literatures focus on transfer pricing policy and its effect under a single supply chain scenario, there is still a lack of understanding of how hidden interest delivery is conducted under supply chain networks including local chain and oversea chain. In this paper, based on the literature from fields of global supply chain and transfer price, a framework of across-chain cooperation in domestic and overseas markets is developed, and the precondition of hidden interest deliver by multinational supply chain is explored. Then, through introducing Transfer Pricing (TP), decision-making models of delivering hidden interest without and with horizontal cooperation for multinational supply chain are established. Then the single TP and duel TP modes are designed. What's more, the relevant tactics and conditions of different TP modes are studied. Finally, the models is optimized, and the sensitive analysis under different TP modes is conducted. It is found that corporate income tax is playing an important role in hidden interest deliver via transfer pricing. Meanwhile, in the setting of single TP, due to simple trigger mechanism, multinational supply chain hidden interest delivery is more prone to be supervised and identified, it is normal to apply it into practice combined with variety of cost. In the setting of duel TP, it is more elusive for two transfer prices changed with diverse direction to delivery interest than with the same directions. In addition, profit rate from hidden interest delivery is higher than that from increasing demand in the context of horizontal cooperation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Optimization Method for the Complex Network Structure Combination in Collective Behavior ZHANG Kai-qi, DU Hai-feng, WANG Jing-jing 2017, 25 (12):  59-67.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.007 Abstract ( 1169 )   PDF (3017KB) ( 726 )   Save The interpersonal relationship in collective behavior can be denoted as the complex network structure. Changes of network structure will influence characteristics and functions of network. Such changes, with the characteristics and functions of network structure as optimal objectives, can be defined as the optimization problem of network structure. The combination of network structure is a common way of network changes, and the combination with a certain kind of structure characteristics is a practically significant optimization problem. Through the description of the mathematical model on the optimization problem of combination of network structure, the optimization problem with the average path length is solvable and sociologically significant. Thus' based on the genetic algorithm, a corresponding optimization is proposed on the combination of network structure. It is found through the experiment of the combination of random network models that the different connected rules have a marked impact on the performance of the combination of network structure, and the optimization problem of the combination of network structure does exist. While the results of proposed algorithms in this paper prove to be better than that of the existing connection rules, additionally, the connected rules of proposed algorithm is a mixed connection rule consisting of both assortative connection rule and disassortative connection rule. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Game Analysis of Mitigation Tournament Considering Generator Heterogeneity in Duopoly Electricity Market HUANG Shou-jun, YANG Jun 2017, 25 (12):  68-77.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.008 Abstract ( 1201 )   PDF (1181KB) ( 994 )   Save The grid corporation is considered to develop potential mitigation space in generation side by using mitigation tournament mechanism. The duopolistic optimal decision models of mitigation competition are constructed based on parameter definition of generators' initial dispatching endowment and mitigation capacity. The equilibrium marginal probabilities of winning and optimal mitigation efforts with different superior generators are determined respectively,and the equilibrium results in these three game structures are comparatively analyzed. Due to losing causes superior generator to suffer a psychological loss and vulnerable generator winning garners an additional psychological benefit,the models are extended to behavioral economics models which take into account social comparison of generator's mitigation decision. The analytical relationships between optimal solutions and behavioral parameters are given. It's found that equilibrium mitigation quantities in the same circumstance are always equal,no matter the number of superior generators in a two-player asymmetric tournament. However,compared with the two cases of homogeneous generators competing,both superior and vulnerable generators will choose to decrease their optimal mitigation levels as the policy response of grid corporation defining generator heterogeneity. The equilibrium mitigation efforts of different types of generators in the generalized models considering psychological factors are greater than the results in the basic models,and respective increment is positively correlated with the value of behavior parameter. The optimal mitigation levels under heterogeneous generators competition are no longer identically equal,and not necessarily less than the equilibrium values in homogeneous circumstances. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Interval-Valued Least Square Nucleolus and Its Application in Cooperative Profit Allocation of Supply Chain LIU Jia-cai, LI Deng-feng, HU Xun-feng 2017, 25 (12):  78-87.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.009 Abstract ( 1074 )   PDF (1248KB) ( 675 )   Save Due to the character that values (or characteristic functions) of coalitions of players are usually expressed with intervals rather than real numbers in real situations, two quadratic programming methods are proposed, which can quickly and effectively compute n-person interval-valued least square prenucleolus and nucleolus of interval-valued cooperative games. In this methodology, based on the square excess e(S,x)=(υL(S)-xL(S))2+(υR(S)-xR(S))2 which can be interpreted as a measure of the dissatisfaction of the coalitions, the quadratic programming model is firstly constructed for interval-valued least square prenucleolus of interval-valued cooperative games and obtain players' interval-valued imputations xiE*=[xLiE*,xRiE*](i∈N), where xLiE*=(υL(N))/n+1/(n2n-2)(naLi(υ)-???20171209???aLj(υ)),xRiE*=(υR(N))/n+1/(n2n-2)(naRi(υ)-???20171209???aRj(υ))(i∈N). Then, taking into account the individual rationality, the aforementioned optimization mathematical model is extended and all players' interval-valued least square nucleolus is solued. Moreover, some useful properties of the interval-valued least square prenucleolus and nucleolus are discussed,such as existence and uniqueness, efficiency, additivity, symmetry, and anonymity. Finally, the quadratic programming models and methods are illustrated with a numerical example about the optimal profit allocation of supply chain and the computational result is analyzed to show the validity, applicability, and advantages. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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On the Dynamic Effect of Environmental Protection Technology,Energy Saving and Emissions Reduction Policy on Ecological Environmental Quality and Transmission Mechanism: Simulation Analysis Based on Three-sector DSGE Model WU Xiao-li 2017, 25 (12):  88-98.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.010 Abstract ( 1011 )   PDF (5377KB) ( 857 )   Save In recent years, the air pollution has seriously affected the sustainable development of China's economy, and the key to solve this problem is improving the environmental protection technology and implementing the effective environmental policy. In this paper' a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model containing energy saving and emissions reduction factors is buit, to research the dynamic effects of environmental technology, energy saving and emissions reduction subsidies, government spending and pollution treatment on China's macro economy, especially for the actual carbon emissions, energy conservation and emission reductions, and ecological environment quality. At the same time, the transmission mechanism of measures based on the impulse response of economic variables is analyzed. First of all, the parameters based are estimated on China's macro economic data by two ways,one is to estimate the static parameters by calibration, and the other is to estimate the dynamic parameters by the bayesian estimation method. Then, the parameter estimation results are used to simulate the theoretical model. The simulation results show that:(1) Improving environmental protection technology can reduce the actual carbon emissions and emission reductions, improve the quality of the ecological environment effectively with economic growth. (2) The energy saving and emissions reduction subsidy only has obvious inhibitory effect on actual carbon emissions and emission reductions in the short term, the long-term effect is relatively smaller, and has a little impact on the environment quality, and show some delay at the same time. (3) Government pollution spending has little effect in the short-term, can effectively reduce the actual carbon emissions in the long-term, and improve the ecological environment quality, but has the negative effects on macro economy. (4) The efforts degree of manufacturer rising can quickly improve energy saving and emission reductions, and effectively reduce the actual scale of carbon emissions, and effectively improve environmental quality. Overall, the environmental protection technology and efforts degree of manufacturer are the key factors of affecting the environment quality. Raising the environmental protection technology and the degree efforts of manufacturers' energy saving and emissions reduction are the key of effectively improving ecological environmental quality. The research provides useful guidance for enterprises to make investment in the environmental protection technology and government make effective policy in energy saving and emission reduction. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Non-affine Option Pricing in the Presence of Microstructure Noises: An Empirical Study Based on the High-frequency Shanghai 50ETF Options Data WU Xin-yu, LI Xin-dan, MA Chao-qun 2017, 25 (12):  99-108.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.011 Abstract ( 1044 )   PDF (1338KB) ( 779 )   Save It has been well documented in the market microstructure literature that observed asset prices can diverge from their equilibrium values due to market microstructure noises (e.g. illiquidity, price discreteness and non-synchronous transactions). In markets where the microstructure noise effect is material, it will be ill-advised to ignore its presence. In the specific context of option pricing models, ignoring microstructure noise could non-trivially inflate one's estimate for the "true" asset volatility. Since the asset volatility plays a key role in the option pricing models, one is then likely to produce misleading estimates for option prices. In the past two decades, the study of option pricing has made rapid development, which highlights the importance of stochastic volatility for option pricing. In particular, the affine stochastic volatility model has attracted a great deal of attention in the finance literature, because the model can provide computational tractability that leads to closed-form solution for European option. At the same time, many studies have found that the affine stochastic volatility model is not sufficient to describe the dynamics of the underlying asset and option prices, and provide strong evidence to support the non-affine stochastic volatility models, such as the GARCH diffusion model, which can characterize more realistic volatility paths and volatility distributions and significantly improving asset allocation and option pricing. In this paper, the problem of the pricing of Shanghai 50ETF options is considered under the non-affine stochastic volatility model in the presence of market microstructure noises. Firstly, based on a power series expansion method, an approximation formula to price European options under the non-affine stochastic volatility model is obtained. Secondly, by applying the Kalman filter, the microstructure noises in the observed Shanghai 50ETF prices are filtered. Then based on the data of the filtered Shanghai 50ETF efficient prices and iVX volatility index, an efficient importance sampling-based maximum likelihood (EIS-ML) method is proposed to estimate jointly the objective and risk-neutral parameters of the non-affine stochastic volatility model. Finally, our model and approach is illustrated using 5-minute high-frequency data on the Shanghai 50ETF options. The empirical results demonstrate that the microstructure noises have an important effect on option pricing. The option pricing performance of the model can be improved when the microstructure noises are considered. The non-affine stochastic volatility model outperforms the Black-Scholes model regardless of whether the microstructure noises are considered, which implies that the specification of non-affine volatility plays an important role on option pricing. The non-affine stochastic volatility model without considering the microstructure noises outperforms the Black-Scholes model with microstructure noises, which demonstrates that the inclusion of non-affine volatility has a larger effect on option pricing than that of the microstructure noises. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Cost-sharing Procurement Contracts Based on Reciprocal Behavior XU Jiang-Wei, JIANG Li 2017, 25 (12):  109-116.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.012 Abstract ( 1067 )   PDF (877KB) ( 686 )   Save The cost-based procurement contracts can usually be classified into the cost-sharing contract, and the fixed-priced contract, and the cost-reimbursement contract. A fixed-price contract provides the strong incentives for the cost-reducing effort, but leaves all risk with the supplier. A cost-reimbursement contract removes all risk from the suppliers, but yields few incentives to decrease cost. The cost-sharing contract is in the middle. The cost-based procurement can be formulated as a principal-agent problem. The buyer is the principal and the supplier is agent. The buyer's objectives are to ensure cost within budget and minimize the cost under delivering high quality finished projects on time in order to obtain the maximization profit, which are affected not only by the future uncertainties, but also by the action of the supplier. Although the buyer can monitor the supplier's behavior, the buyer can't entirely observe the action of the supplier. This asymmetric information always leads to some loss in efficiency due to moral hazard and adverse selection. In consideration of this fact, a simple linear formulation of cost-sharing procurement contract is developed,that the reciprocal behavior is embedded into, in which the buyer firstly formulates some kind, and then the supplier is willing to reciprocate the buyer's kind by reciprocal cost-reducing effort. After modeling this reciprocal behavior, it is found that the efficiency on the procurement contract inserted the reciprocal behavior, under the very modest restrictions, can also reach the level or social surplus secured by a fully optimal contract even if the purchaser cannot observe the supplier's effort on the cost reduction. The reciprocal model has the double significant in theory and practice. The model, relative to the traditional cost-based procurement contracts, is a Pareto improvement because the buyer and the supplier both can get more benefits from their reciprocal behavior. In practice, the buyer can adjust his kind level based on the project's risk and the supplier's management ability and technical level to promote the project's success. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Based On the Double Product Hotelling Model Flexible Product Pricing Strategy Research Of Online Advertising XU Shu-jun 2017, 25 (12):  117-125.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.013 Abstract ( 961 )   PDF (1868KB) ( 958 )   Save Online advertising has grown at a fast pace over the past decade and the growth is not expected to slow down in the future. But it is challenging for online pages supplier that online AD pages capacity is perishable and its market demand is of great uncertainty. It makes AD pages supplier adopt the Flexible Page Strategy (FPS) to increase their revenue. In this paper, based on the substitutability between the online advertising spaces, a Double-Page Hotelling Model with perfect information is proposed to analyze the demanders' strategic behavior to the different price combination considering demanders' preference and consumer surplus. Our analysis thus highlights the importance of coordination the specific page (SP) pricing and flexible page (FP) pricing to maximize the supplier's revenue. Studies have shown that in order to maximize their revenue through FPS, the supplier shall coordinate price SP and FP, otherwise will be falling for two price trap resulting in reduced revenue. It is found that there is the optimal pricing for FPS of the supplier. When pricing of SPis moderate, if the capacity is large enough, FPS can always make the supplier revenue maximum, which increase as the demand preference utility sensitivity will monotonously increase.And if the capacity is not very big, as long as the preferences utility sensitivity of the demanders is enough big, FPS can improve the supplier's revenue.If the capacity is too small, it is not necessary to adopt FPS. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Rescheduling Driven Decision for Virtual Manufacturing Cellular under Sequential Orders Arriving HAN Wen-min, ZHU Tao, LI Zheng-yi, WENG Hong-bing, JIANG Jia-shang 2017, 25 (12):  126-137.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.014 Abstract ( 1084 )   PDF (3736KB) ( 651 )   Save In the actual production environment, new orders arrive in succession. Usually, a new optimal scheduling plan is built every time a new order arrives, to make the production system runs more efficiently. As the scheduling plan changes too frequently, the "nervousness" of scheduling production has appeared. The control of the workshop is affected, and the stability of the production system is weakened. At present, studies on rescheduling problems mainly focus on the optimization of rescheduling method and the evaluation of rescheduling performance. The rescheduling driven decision-making has not gained enough attention.The rescheduling driven is a mechanism which determines when to reschedule. The rescheduling driven in the virtual cellular manufacturing system is proposed, in order to reduce the times of rescheduling with new orders arriving continually, while keeping the high efficiency of the production system. A new rescheduling driven decision-making method is propsed through the loss and gain of scheduling in virtual cellular manufacturing system. In this paper, loss and gain of scheduling is assessed from the perspective of time. The starting time deviations of tasks which exist in both the new scheduling plan and the old one are calculated, to measure the loss. Difference between the completion times before and after the rescheduling is considered as the profit of scheduling. To ensure the optimization of rescheduling, a nonlinear 0-1 integer programming mathematical model with multi-objectives is established according to the characteristics of virtual cellular manufacturing system. Then a discrete particle swarm optimization algorithm with genetic operation is designed to solve the rescheduling model. Based on the rolling time horizon theory, the whole plan is divided into several periods by rescheduling points. Alternative rescheduling points are generated by a mixture of periodic and event strategy. At each point, the loss is compared with the gain of rescheduling based on the mathematical programming model, to find out whether it is appropriate to implement the rescheduling. If the gain can make up for the loss, the rescheduling will be carried out immediately; otherwise, this alternative time point will be canceled. With the proposed decision-making method, the reasonable rescheduling points are selected and the unnecessary ones are filtered out. As a result, the frequency of rescheduling is reduced. The case of shipbuilding verifies that the proposed rescheduling driven decision-making method is feasible and efficient. The analysis of the case indicates that, compared to other driven strategies, this method can obviously decrease the rate of changing production plan without worsening scheduling performance index. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Design of Dynamic Double Incentive Evaluation Mechanism and its Application Under Mixed Information ZHANG Fa-ming, XIAO Wen-xing 2017, 25 (12):  138-146.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.015 Abstract ( 1046 )   PDF (1022KB) ( 726 )   Save Dynamic comprehensive evaluation of hybrid information is a major research issue in comprehensive evaluation. How to effectively transform and dynamically aggregate hybrid information on the premise of avoiding information distortion has always been a hot debated and difficult point in this research area. Previous research generally presents problems such as monotonous time series data, improper transformation of hybrid information, and insufficient dynamic aggregation. To solve these problems, in this paper concentration is put on dynamic comprehensive issues with index values comprised of real number, interval number, and natural language, and an "explicit-implicit" dynamic double incentive evaluation mechanism is put forward. Firstly, to solve the problem of hybrid information transformation, two-tuple linguistic information is employed to transform natural language to ordered real number, then whole sequence method is adopted to process interval number and real number through standardization, finally a relative superiority model is proposed to statically aggregate standardized hybrid information. Secondly, LN-double incentive control line is introduced, and an "explicit-implicit" geometric double incentive model is built to dynamically aggregate time series data (static aggregated value at each time point). Dynamic comprehensive evaluation values of each plan are obtained then sorted. Thirdly, partial data from previous research is cited to analyze a vendor selection case. The case analysis results show that the proposed method is effective and superior to previous ones. The method proposed in this paper provides a new research thought and technical option for further research of similar type, including taking into consideration expert weights, collective interaction, unknown index weights or other uncertain situations. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Mechanism and Quantity Modeling of Information Diffusion in Social Networks WANG Yi, LIANG Xun, FU Hong-jiao, XU Zhi-ming 2017, 25 (12):  147-157.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.016 Abstract ( 1301 )   PDF (3736KB) ( 978 )   Save With more sources, higher speed and broader spreading, the public opinions in the network are more difficult to be monitored and controlled. In order to improve the ability of controlling the online public opinions, it is necessary to model the process of information diffusion quantitatively so that we can understand the characteristics of information dissemination. In this paper' the mechanism of information diffusion is first analyzed from the micro perspective, considering both the structural characteristics of networks and the time efficiency of controlling. By taking the state of node into consideration, which corresponds to a user's online or offline, the traditional independent cascade mode is developed into discrete-time oriented bi-probability cascade model. Then, the process of information diffusion is analyzed and quantified from the macro perspective. The dynamic diffusion equation with the quality of information, features of the network and the impact from external platforms is established. Compared with previous studies using only model simulations or numerical fitting, the process of information diffusion in social networks is descrbed more accurately. The experimental results show various forms of information dissemination with different characteristics. Besides, it also shows that less time would be taken for information to burst out with larger size of user network, closer relationship of users and higher quality of information. These findings are helpful to predict the trend of information diffusion and make it easier to recognize important propagators in time when managing the public opinions in social networks. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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GMDH Based Hybrid Model for China's Energy Consumption Prediction XIAO Jin, SUN Hai-yan, LIU Dun-hu, CAO Han-wen, WANG Shou-yang 2017, 25 (12):  158-166.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.017 Abstract ( 1060 )   PDF (2171KB) ( 719 )   Save Energy is the material basis for the survival and development of human society and it plays an important strategic role in national economy.With the development of society, it shows an increasing demand of energy, so effective management is important for energy use. Energy consumption prediction is the theory premise of energy supply and demand management, therefore, establishing a reliable energy consumption forceasting model is particularly significant. At present, the existing models mainly includes two types:single prediction models and hybrid prediction models.In this study' a group method of data handling (GMDH) based hybrid forecasting model (GHFM) is proposed for China's energy consumption prediction. In this model, GMDH based auto-regression is first constructed in the original energy consumption time series, the linear trend of time series is predicted, and residual series (i.e., non-linear sub-series) is obtained. Considering the complexity of non-linear sub-series prediction, BP neural network, support vector regression, genetic programming and RBF neural network are constructed respectively, and then combined forecasting model is condueted selectively by GMDH in non-linear sub-series and the combination prediction are obtained for the non-linear sub-series. At last, the total energy consumption forecast values are integrated from the two parts above. Empirical analysis is conducted on the total energy consumption and oil consumption time series from China Statistical Yearbook of energy statistics data (2014) and the results show that the forecast performance of GHFM model is better than other models. In addition, the out-of-sample forecasts of China's total energy consumption from 2015 to 2020 is given based on GHFM model. The proposed model can be used to improve the accuracy of energy consumption forecasting. The model can also be applied to other time series forecasting problems, including container throughput forecasting, crude oil price forecasting, electricity load forecasting, stock price forecasting, et al. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multiple Attribute Large-group Decision-making Method with Incomplete Information by Considering Expert's Knowledge Structure DU Yuan-wei, WANG Su-su, YANG Ning, ZHOU Wen 2017, 25 (12):  167-178.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.018 Abstract ( 1097 )   PDF (2036KB) ( 723 )   Save With management practice problems becoming more and more complex, the large-group decision making based on modern information technology has been a noteworthy research topic recently. The large-group decision making may be influenced by expert's knowledge structure,which is not considered in existing methods. In order to solve above problem, the properties and characteristics are described and defined from three perspectives such as territoriality, incompleteness and reliability, and the mechanism for extracting incomplete inference information is presented by applying basic belief assignment function. Then the methods and theorems are constructed for fusing inference information of individual expert and expert's group respectively with compensatory strategy and non-compensatory strategy, both of which are technologically based on evidence reasoning rule. The procedure of multiple attribute large-group decision-making method with incomplete information by considering expert's knowledge structure is proposed by following the fusion thought that "from individual fusion to group fusion". The numerical comparison analysis shows the proposed method is scientific and effective finally. The innovation points of the proposed method are not only to reflect the influences by expert's knowledge structure within the mechanism for extracting incomplete inference information, but also to distinguish the differences between expert reliabilities and attribute weights and reflect the compensatory among attributes and the non-compensatory among experts. This will play an important supporting role in improving and ensuring the efficiency and effectiveness of large group decision making. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on a Combined Method of Subjective-Objective Weighting Based on the Ordered Information and Intensity Information LI Gang, LI Jian-ping, SUN Xiao-lei, WU Deng-sheng 2017, 25 (12):  179-187.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.019 Abstract ( 1329 )   PDF (1325KB) ( 1063 )   Save The key issue of multi-attribute decision making is to determine the reasonable weights of the attributes. Considering the different advantages of the subjective weighting methods and the objective weighting methods, focus is put on studying the combination of Subjective-Objective weighting and its rationality. Firstly, according to the information conveyed by the attribute weights, a method is put forward to decompose the attribute weight information into the "ordered information" and "intensity information",The "ordered information" and "intensity information" of Subjective-Objective weights are then compared and analyzed.Furthermore, the principle of combined weights on balancing "ordered information" and "intensity information" which laid the foundation for an optimization model of the combination weighting is put forward. Secondly, an optimization model of the combined weighting method is established to find the Subjective-Objective weighting. The objective function is to minimize the deviation between the combination weight and the objective weight, the constraint is to minimize the deviation of the sequence between the combined weight and the subjective weight which balance the "ordered information" and "intensity information" of the attribute weight. Finally, the validity and the interpretability of the model is verified by an example and the feasibility of the combined weighting method is verified by an example of efficiency evaluation in a bank. Based on the decomposition of subjective and objective weight information, a combination weighting model, which balances "ordered information" and "intensity information" from a single attribute level is established. The combination is more flexible and ensures the compatibility and interpretability. It provides new ideas and references for the empowerment of multi-attribute decision-making. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Closed-loop Supply Chain Pricing Strategy and Coordination Mechanism under the Difference of Dual-channel Recycling Cost ZHU Xiao-dong, WU Bing-bing, WANG Zhe 2017, 25 (12):  188-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.12.020 Abstract ( 1179 )   PDF (3272KB) ( 1062 )   Save Internet-based online recyclers are a useful complement to existing e-waste recycling systems. Considering the differences in the collection cost of dual-channel and remanufacturable ratio of recycling products, the Stackelberg pricing model of manufacturer, retailer and online recycler is established. In this paper, the optimal collection price and profits of dual channel are determined separately under centralized and decentralized decision making. The impact of remanufacturable ratio of recycling products, collection competition coefficient, the consumer sensitivity of collection price and other factors on the collection prices, quantities and profits through numerical simulation is also analysed. Finally, the benefit cost sharing model is used to coordinate the subjects of the supply chain, and numerical examples are used to verify the efficiency of the coordination contract. The results show that:The profit of the whole closed-loop supply chain under the centralized decision making is the largest, whereas double marginalization results in loss of efficiency under decentralized decision making. Remanufacturable ratio of recycling products, collection competition coefficient, the consumer sensitivity of collection price are related to the collection amount of discarded product and profits of supply chain. To design a benefit cost sharing coordination contract can effectively improve the efficiency of closed-loop supply chain and increase profits of each party, and encourage manufacturer, retailer and online recycler to implement the contract. References | Related Articles | Metrics