Table of Content

20 December 2018, Volume 26 Issue 12 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Does Economic Uncertainty Matter for Stock Market Volatility? An Analysis Based on GARCH-MIDAS XIA Ting, WEN Yue-chun 2018, 26 (12):  1-11.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.001 Abstract ( 931 )   PDF (1438KB) ( 783 )   Save The reaction of Chinese stock market to economic uncertainty has always been an important issue for practitioners and researchers. In theory, stock market tends to be more volatile when economic environment is unstable. With the rapid development of stock market in China, we are concerned about how uncertainty from economics impact stock market. The GARCH-MIDAS introduced by Engle et al. (2013) is employed to investigate whether information contained economic uncertainty can help to predict long-term components of the Chinese A-share and B-share variance. Economic uncertainty used in this paper includes macroeconomic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Our sample consists of daily stock returns and monthly economic variables from January 2003 through December 2016. ARIMA models are used to remove the trends, leaving residuals as economic uncertainty variables before incorporated into MIDAS specification. The empirical analysis indicates that economic uncertainty would impact stock market volatility in a slight way, and difference exists between A-share and B-share. IP (Industrial Production) growth rate and inflation rate contribute to the volatility of A-share and B-share, IP is the most significant factor. Neither monetary policy nor Chinese EPU contributes to A-share volatility, while they are factors of B-share volatility. American EPU doesn't significantly drive Chinese stock market fluctuate. Furthermore, variance decomposition verifies our conclusion. MIDAS approach is an appropriate way to investigate long-term component and short-term component of stock market volatility, which helps to identify economic factors driving Chinese stock market volatility. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Identifying the Main Turning Point of Stock Market: Based on improved Wavelet Leader and Bayesian Estimation of Approximation Technique TAN Zheng-xun, HUANG Jing-dong, YE Cheng 2018, 26 (12):  12-24.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.002 Abstract ( 680 )   PDF (1625KB) ( 342 )   Save By discussing the connections between mono-fractal model and multi-fractal model as represented by wavelet leader, intrinsic weaknesses of wavelet leader method are analyzed to make an improvement, and Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare the effect between traditional wavelet leader method and improved wavelet leader method. Within the framework of improved wavelet leader method. Bayesian estimation based on Approximation technique is used to compute the multifractal spectrum and the related parameters of the return rate series of the Shanghai Composite Index.Our theoretical analysis indicates that in the conventional wavelet leader method, the setting-wavelet sum of energy equals one-leads to inconsistence with both canonical R/S analysis method and the actual situation of the real stock market. Thus, conventional wavelet leader method can cause a significant underestimation of scaling index and other adverse outcomes. Under the improved wavelet leader method, based on approximation technology, Bayesian estimation method can not only reduce the parameters that need to be estimated, but also identify the significant turning point of China's stock market, and the result is also very robust. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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When does the Financial Bubbles Crash?——the Validity Test of LPPL Model Based on China Financial Market PAN Na, WANG Zi-jian, ZHOU Yong 2018, 26 (12):  25-33.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.003 Abstract ( 1116 )   PDF (2413KB) ( 704 )   Save This paper focus on the financial bubbles crash by establishing the Log Periodic Power Law Model, which translates one-dimensional price fluctuations of the financial time series into multidimensional variables reflecting the market microstructure about the bubbles. The Log Periodic Power Law Model is very useful to characterize the formation and crash of the financial bubbles. The LPPL model is: lnp(t)=A+B(tc-t)m{1+Ccos(ωln(tc-t)-φ)} where lnp(t) is the logarithm of index or assets price.tc is the critical point of bubble burst. The least square method is applied to estimate parameters in the model, and using Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm is used for finding the optimal parameters. Dynamic detecting the multidimensional variables, diagnosing bubbles that are in the making and to forecast their termination time, so as to effectively reduce or prevent the financial risk from the financial bubbles crashing. The Shanghai Composite Index, four futures contracts and two stocks are performed on, for testing the applicability of LPPL Model in the financial market of China. The empirical results show that when the financial asset price series presents hyper exponential acceleration, shocks rise or fall, the model modified can be used to obtain a stable estimation, and effectively predict the critical point of the bubble burst. This paper not only tests the validity of LPPL model based on China financial market, but also provides a powerful tool for detecting financial bubbles or forecasting the bubbles crash. Moreover, as a supplementary guide for trading strategies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Empirical Analyses between Financial Agglomeration, Productivity Growth and Urban-rural Income Gap-Base on Dynamic Spatial Panel Model LI Jian-xuan, ZHAO Lin-du 2018, 26 (12):  34-43.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.004 Abstract ( 631 )   PDF (922KB) ( 464 )   Save Analyzing the effects of financial agglomeration on productivity growth and urban-rural income cap can provide corresponding policy recommendations for the unification of efficiency and equality from the perspective of financial development. Based on the data of China's 285 cities in 2003-2014, the effects of financial agglomeration on urban overall productivity growth and urban-rural income gap are analyzed using a dynamic spatial panel model. The results show that although financial agglomeration is an important force to promote urban overall productivity growth, it is also a key factor that leads to the widening of urban-rural income gap. This is mainly because that financial agglomeration can significantly increase the per capita income level of urban residents, but the effect of financial agglomeration on the increase of the per capita income level of rural residents is not significant. The policy implication of this paper is that before the arrival of the spread stage of financial agglomeration, financial policies that aim to alleviate the urban-rural income gap may inhabit urban overall productivity growth. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Cross Market Regime Switching Multi-period Asset Allocation Based on Prospect Theory WANG Jia, JIN Xiu, WANG Xu, LI Gang 2018, 26 (12):  44-55.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.005 Abstract ( 639 )   PDF (1564KB) ( 498 )   Save With the increasing interactivity of financial markets, the single risk market cannot meet the actual investment needs. There have been academic studies indicating that the fluctuation of asset returns in the market can be influenced by the economic cycle which shows different characteristics under different market conditions. Meanwhile, in the actual investment, investors often deviate from the expected utility theory. In this paper, under the framework of prospect theory and behavioral finance, an asset allocation problem among cross-markets with regime switching is studied. Hidden Markov regime switching-mixture normal distribution is constructed to describe time-varying regimes in the stock market, the bond market and the commodity market, the parameters of which are estimated by the Baum-Welch algorithm. Moreover, with scenarios generated under regime switching, a multi-period stochastic optimized model is constructed. Further, against the background of the stock market, the bond market and the commodity market in China, the performance of multi-period stochastic model is empirically analyzed by the use of rolling window method, which is compared with the results of standard dynamic model ignoring regime switching, equally weighted portfolio and hs300 index. It is concluded that compared with other portfolio, regime switching portfolio helps avoid risk, and under the prospect theory, regime switching information of hybrid markets can have an effect on optimal decision of prospect theory investors. The conclusions show that compared with risk investment with single market, the multi-period asset allocation of cross-markets under the framework of the prospect theory contributes to avoiding risk. Especially when the market performs poorly, introducing regime switching information can affect the investment decision, and is beneficial for investors to obtain stable returns. Above all, certain reference meanings can be provided for the risk management of capital market in China and institutional investors and fund managers may be helped hold diversified portfolio. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Financial Market Supernetwork Equilibrium Considering Social Network and Internet Finance MI Chuan-min, LI Dan-dan, ZHANG Ting, QIAN Yuan-yuan, ZHOU Zhi-peng 2018, 26 (12):  56-65.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.006 Abstract ( 655 )   PDF (1209KB) ( 559 )   Save The wide application of social network and Internet finance brings opportunities and challenges to the development of the financial market. For example, Alipay is widely used for payment online and offline in China, and Lending Club is used in American as a P2P platform. The financial market is more complex and diverse than ever. Traditional financial markets and regulation theories are hard to adapt to the development of the financial market and risk management needs. What is the new equilibrium of the financial market which integrates social network and Internet finance? How do the social network and social relationship affect financial market? What is the role of Internet finance in the financial market? These are some new problems worth studying. In this paper, considering the complex networks relationships brought by social network and Internet finance, an integrated capital flow network and social network financial market supernetwork model is built to show the complex relationships among financial market participants, and variational inequalities method is used to study the equilibrium of the financial market. First,the credit punishment function and operational risk function that considered Intenet finance are given. And taking into account the strengthening of social network relations can improve the transparency of information, reduce transaction costs and risks, a four-layer supernetwork model which is composed by social network and capital flow network is established. The four layer are capital supplier layer, Internet financial layer, traditional financial layer, capital demander layer respectively. Then,an analysis of the behavior of the participants in the proposed supernetwork model is performed is performed, the multi-objective decision model that includs the maximum net income, the social network relationship between maximization and risk minimization goals si gotten. Next, using variational inequality theory, the financial market equilibrium conditions are studied. Finally, an example for simulating is given to test the validity of the model, and the management insight for Internet financial intermediaries and traditional financial intermediaries is discussed. The results show that when considering social network relationships, the financial market equilibrium is different. There are some effects on Internet financial intermediaries and traditional financial intermediaries. That is to say, as the development of social network and Internet finance, strengthening the cooperation and collaboration between Internet financial intermediaries and traditional financial intermediaries is of great significance to enhance the stability and effectiveness of the financial market and reduce the financial risk. The paper's result is useful for financial regulation department, Internet finance and traditional financial intermediaries. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Evolution of Information Strategy and Herd Behavior based on Dynamic Scale-free Network WANG Zong-run, PAN Cheng-cheng 2018, 26 (12):  66-77.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.007 Abstract ( 617 )   PDF (3390KB) ( 510 )   Save The market tends to be inefficient in the traditional artificial stock market,which lacks of economic implications for the heterogeneity of investors, and does not consider the influence of herd behavior that exists widely in the real market.Based on the heterogeneous information trading model in the call options market, the heterogeneous information strategy and the herd behavior in the dynamic scale-free neighbor relationship network are introduced into the traditional artificial financial market to construct the artificial stock market model, and the evolution of information strategy of the heterogeneous investor and herd behavior is studied. The influence of different mechanisms on the market is compared and analyzed and the result of information strategy evolution in dynamic relational networks is revealled. It is found that:on the one hand, the introduction of information strategy evolution mechanism speeds up the market equilibrium rate and improves the market efficiency, while also greatly reducing the level of investor wealth and widening the wealth gap. The evolution of information strategy and herd behavior does not lead investors to focus entirely on insider information traders, all the information grade investors will exist, and high information grade investors are mostly dominated and other information grade investors will not be out of the market.On the other hand, the introduction of dynamic relations network enhances the degree of infection of investors, and further narrows the wealth gap between investors, but also significantly improves the quality and efficiency of insider information diffusion.So,the investors in the high and low information grades have their own relative advantages in the process of evolution in the dynamic network,but the investors in other information grades will exist.And when the regulators seek a higher efficiency in the market, they should also make an appropriate trade-off among the market efficient,investors' wealth and total social wealth. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evolutionary Game Analysis of IPO Pricing in Book-building HUANG Shun-wu, YU Kai, JIA Jie 2018, 26 (12):  78-89.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.008 Abstract ( 589 )   PDF (1539KB) ( 544 )   Save As an important part of IPO, IPO pricing has always been one of the concerns in the capital market. Book-building has been widely proved to be highly efficient in the United States and other developed countries, but it has costed problems frequently in the operation of the Chinese stock market. The classic theories in related filed usually assume that the interests of the issuer and the underwriter are unified, and only the game within the group of investors has been studied. Differently, it is believed that the IPO pricing under the book-building is the result of multi-parties game and it is necessary to study the IPO pricing problem with the strategic choices of the issuers, investors and underwriters in the process of book-building. Based on this new perspective, an evolutionary game model of IPO pricing is built. With the model, evolutionary equilibrium processes of strategic behaviors of issuers' information disclosure, investors' bids and underwriters' pricing ways during IPO pricing in Chinese book-building are analyzed. The results show that the different payoff determines evolutionary equilibrium strategies of participants. 1) If issuers could not get matched payoff when they truthfully report their information, the follow-up companies would choose the strategy of dressing up economic performance and further, adverse selection would occur in IPO market. 2) Whether investors chase risk bidding or value bidding depends on net underpricing between offering price and aftermarket price. Only when net underpricing is compressed, could investors bid in accordance with value. 3) Underwriter would raise the offering price to gain more income and meanwhile, reputation could restrict the behavior of asking a high price. Only when the predatory profit could not offset reputation losses, would underwriters adopt the strategy of delivered pricing. Otherwise, the strategy of predatory pricing would be adopted. The evolutionary equilibrium process of the strategy choices of the issuer, investor and underwriter in the IPO pricing process is simulated using MATLAB,and the consistent results have been obtained. This paper helps to understand the internal mechanism of the Chinese book-building in theory profoundly, and it can provide some reference for deepening the reform of the new issue and pricing system in practice, and also a positive supplement to the existing related research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Infectious Risk of Major Projects Based onStructural Cooperative Gain Model ZHAO Na, CHENG T. C. E., SUN Ni-na 2018, 26 (12):  90-98.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.009 Abstract ( 564 )   PDF (1188KB) ( 267 )   Save Based on the synergic relationship assumption of structure among main bodies of the critical project, by taking into consideration root causing the infectious risk of the critical project and the infectious characteristics of the critical project, a structural synergistic gain model is constructed which synergizes the infectious risk of the critical project at the high limit and ensures normal and ordered construction. Through utilizing a mathematical analysis method and taking the subject behavior of the core leading factor "person" formed by the infectious risk of the critical project as the point cut, a mathematical comparative analysis is carried out based on the structural synergistic gain model of the infectious risk. The research result shows:(1) when the ratio of infectors capable of being synergized is less than the critical value, it shall hold back the infectious risk strategy by a large-scale constant-rate so as to prevent from damaging the structural balance between the infector and the other person and thus cause serious impact on the synergizer and other person unrelated or even cause local or large-area shut-down of the critical project. (2) When the oscillation period of the synergism infector is more than the critical value, it shall be not too frequent for implementing the oscillation synergism infectors so as to prevent a structural disequilibrium. At that time, the moderate oscillation synergism management can not only make the personnel structure free from collapse caused by the infectious risk but also digest and reduce the infector density in pro rata by synergism. (3) Through a comparative analysis, it is found that when the oscillation period is more than the shortest one, the oscillation synergism is better than the constant-rate hold-back; otherwise, the constant-rate hold-back is better than the oscillation synergism. Moreover, it is found that under two synergism means of constant-rate hold-back and the oscillation synergism, the critical value of the structural proportion unbalancing can be avoided between the infector and the synergizer so as to promote structural synergistic gain of the critical project. Therefore, the research not only discloses relevant mechanism of infectious risk synergism of the critical project but also en riches the coordinative management research theory. The structural synergistic gain model and its index provides references for selecting the coordinative management of the infectious risk of the critical project. It specifically inhibits and prevents the occurrence of large-scale infectious risk, protects personnel structure proportion of the critical project, reaches the effect of structural synergistic gain, protects national economic "stabilizer" and effectively promotes sound and stable development of the critical project. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Influencing Factors of Complete Energy Intensity of Manufacturing Industry based on Input-Output Methodology and SVAR Model LI Gen, LIU Jia-guo, WANG Xiao-min 2018, 26 (12):  99-112.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.010 Abstract ( 612 )   PDF (1073KB) ( 668 )   Save Since China's reform and opening-up, although the complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry has showed a trend of decline overly, it remains high compared with developed countries. Considering the two factors of economic efficiency and energy utilization, how to further reduce the complete energy consumption of manufacturing industry has become a hot issue in academic circles. It is also an important content to measure the effect of energy saving and emission reduction in manufacturing industry. In this paper, embodied energy of manufacturing industry is taken into account and the formula of complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry is constructed based on direct and complete consumption coefficients of input-output model. Based on the Wuli-Shili-Renli system methodology, the factors system of complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry, which contains technology progress, FDI, enterprise scale, energy consumption structure, industrial structure, etc is built. Based on time series data from 1980 to 2016, the SVAR model is used to explore the influence law of various factors on complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry. All time series that has been counted in currency are deflated into the price of 1980. Impulse response results show that in the short term, enterprise scale, industrial structure, energy price, technology progress, FDI, etc., have a relatively great influence on complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry. With the increase of enterprise average scale, proportion of heavy industry and technological progress rate, complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry starts to reduce; with the increase of energy price and FDI, complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry starts to rise. In the medium-long term, enterprise scale, property right structure, energy price, industrial structure, technology progress, etc., have a relatively large influence on complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry. With the increase of the energy price, the proportion of state-owned enterprises, and technological progress rate, complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry goes down and then goes up; with the increase of enterprise average scale and the proportion of heavy industry, complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry goes up and then goes down. Variance decomposition results show that enterprise scale, energy price, property right structure, industrial structure and technological progress have great contributions on complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry. In order to reduce complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry, it is relatively outstanding to expand enterprise scale moderately, regulate energy price reasonably, promote diversification of property right structure, etc.. The research of this paper fills the insufficiency of the research field, which is about the influence law of various factors on complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry, and extends the research perspectives of energy intensity from the perspective of embodied energy of manufacturing industry. The research results have a significant reference value to the state for making energy saving and emission reduction policies of manufacturing industry and the further achievements in reducing complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Cooperation in Reverse Factoring when Capital Constraints CHEN Zhong-jie, YU Hui 2018, 26 (12):  113-123.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.011 Abstract ( 734 )   PDF (1371KB) ( 356 )   Save Reverse factoring solves the seller's financing difficulty by using the good reputation of the buyer. In practice, core enterprises such as Carrefour China carry out a strategic cooperation on reverse factoring with financial institutions to ease the plight of suppliers and reduce the risk of supply disruptions.Previous studies usually explore the impact of reverse factoring on supply-side operational decisions which are finance-oriented.However, as a buyer-driven financing mode, will the relationship between the upstream and downstream affect the supply chain decision-making in reverse factoring?In addition, for commercial credits turning into bank credits, the core enterprises does not get financing but their credit risk increases in the reverse factoring. So what is the motivates of core enterprise to lead reverse factoring? In this paper, a two-level supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer facing stochastic demand is studied,and a game model is established based on the wholesale price contract to explore the operating rules of financing-constrained supply chain under reverse factoring. The credit risk loss coefficient A/l (where A represents the credit risk of the supplier and l represents the total amount of credit of retailer). They are introduced to describe the credit losses suffered by retailers because of credit transfer.By solving the Stackelberg game model inversely, the quantitative decision of reverse factoring in supply chain is obtained:When η ≥ QN*c, the supply chain has sufficient funds and the optimal order quantity is QN*. When η < QN*c, supplier's funding constraints, in this situation, when ,supply chain is not necessary to reverse factoring, the optimal order quantity is η/c;and when , reverse factoring is the best choice and the optimal order quantity is Q2*.Combined with numerical simulation, it is found that reverse factoring can enhance supply chain cooperation and plays an important role in increasing the supply chain participants' income, enhancing the stability of supply chain operations and the ability of supply chain to capture market opportunities. Furthermore, it is revealed that retailers can benefit more from reverse factoring,which explains the motivation of buyer-driven financing from the perspective of supply chain performance, and provides new support for the opinion of financial strengthening supply chain cooperation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Co-location Between Logistics Park and Industrial Park Based on the Total Cost and Carbon Emission Reduction TAO Jing-hui, GUO Xiao-wei 2018, 26 (12):  124-134.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.012 Abstract ( 614 )   PDF (1055KB) ( 364 )   Save With the deepening of economic globalization, countries all over the world pay more and more attention to build and extend the industrial chain, obtain more economic elements, occupy a larger market and achieve industrial transformation and upgrading through the industry linkage development between the regions, in order to reach the purpose of improving the regional industry competitiveness. The co-location of logistics park and industrial park, as well as optimal allocation of the goods, is beneficial to strengthen synergies between the regional industry, so as to promote the overall development of regional economy. Under the premise of an alternative point being determined, the theory of multiple objective with total costs and total carbonemissions being used as objective function according to co-location problem of logistics park and industrial park, the multi-objective location model is established, and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ is designed, thought the algorithm to solve the logistics park and industrial park of collaborative construction address and optimized allocation of goods. The algorithm is analyzed by an example, and the results show that the proposed algorithm is highly efficient, and the stability of the model is verified by sensitivity analysis of the main parameters. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Path Selection of Servitization of Manufacturing Enterprises XIE Ji-fei 2018, 26 (12):  135-145.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.013 Abstract ( 597 )   PDF (1308KB) ( 318 )   Save Servitization has become an important way for manufacturers to obtain and maintain competitive advantages, the nature of which is the extension of enterprise value chain, including input and output servitization. When servitizing, manufacturers can choose to internalize or externalize the input and output service functions. A theoretical model is built from the product level to study and compare four kinds of servitization paths:(1) Externalize input service and output service; (2) Externalize input service, internalize output service; (3) Internalize input service, externalize output service; (4) Internalize input service and output service. Firstly, by analyzing model variables of demand quality elasticity and quality cost coefficient, quality and price of product and service of manufacturers, quality and price of service of producer service enterprises, and market base of manufacturers and producer service enterprises, etc. the maximum profit of manufacturers under each path is obtained. Secondly, by comparing the maximum profit of manufacturers under each path, the critical conditions of path selection are obtained. Lastly, the effectiveness and practicability of the model is verified by a MATLAB numerical experiment and the case analysis of shipping business of Baowu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. The results show that, which path becomes a better choice depends on the manufacturers' own conditions and the market environment. Under the premise that the quality cost coefficient is larger enough than the demand quality elasticity, (1) if market base of output service is larger than the critical value of market bases of input service and product, Path 1 is better than Path 2, otherwise, the reverse; (2) if the market base of input service is larger than the critical value of market bases of output service and product, Path 1 is better than Path 3, otherwise, the reverse; (3) if market bases of input and output services are larger than the critical values, and market base of product is relatively small, Path 1 is better than Path 4, otherwise, the reverse; (4) if market base of input service is larger than the critical value of market bases of output service and product, Path 2 is better than Path 3; if market base of input service is larger than the critical value of market bases of output service and product, Path 3 is better than Path 2; (5) if market base of input service is larger than the critical value of market base of product, Path 2 is better than Path 4, otherwise, the reverse; (6) when the quality cost coefficient is larger than square of demand quality elasticity, if market base of output service is larger than the critical value of market base of product, Path 3 is better than Path 4, otherwise, the reverse; when the square of demand quality elasticity is between one and two times the quality cost coefficient, Path 3 is better than Path 4. The results provide theoretical basis and solutions for manufacturers to make the optimal servitization path selection according to their own conditions and the market environment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Factors that Influence Emergency Events Public Preparedness Intention——Based on Empirical Research HUANG Lv-jun, SHE Lian 2018, 26 (12):  146-157.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.014 Abstract ( 716 )   PDF (1356KB) ( 389 )   Save Emergency events are low-probability and high-consequence events. Since emergency events risk exists objectively, public preparedness intentions and behavior have an important impact on risk mitigation and damage reduction. It has been widely observed that people often fail to act, or do very little, to lessen their risk of emergency events damage. In order to explain the variance in public's precautionary action to avoid emergency events damage, a model of emergency events public perception and preparedness intention is develeped. This article aims to predict public preparedness intentions by testing a path model, including risk perception and coping appraisal based on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). Causal relations are tested by means of hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling (SEM). Risk perception is composed of the variables "probability" and "severity", and coping appraisal is comprised of the three variables "response efficacy", "self-efficacy", and "response cost". Data are collected through questionnaire surveys in seven administrative areas in Wuhan of Hubei province (n=405). Overall, the results indicate that both risk perception and coping appraisal influence public preparedness intentions. And the coping appraisal is better than the risk perception at predicting preparedness intentions. In addition, the data show the explanatory power of three demographic variables, including age, education, and income. To motivate the public to take their share in emergency events risk preparedness intentions and behavior, it is essential to communicate not only the risk of probability and its potential consequences, but also the response efficacy, self-efficacy and response costs, which are statistically significant factors influence public preparedness intentions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Information Propagation Model of Microblog Network Based on Petri Nets LIU Yu, LIANG Xun, YANG Xiao-ping 2018, 26 (12):  158-167.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.015 Abstract ( 563 )   PDF (2563KB) ( 355 )   Save Information propagation model in the micro-blog is the basis of many researches, including analyzing user behavior, discovering the ways of spreading, confirming leaders and detecting public opinion hot spots. At present, a1though there has been extensive research on information propagation models which from different angles, these models often lack the intuitionistic description for the information dissemination process. Based on the structure and characteristics of Petri nets, a simple and intuitive description model is presented for the process of information dissemination in micro-blog network. This model first describes the objects in the process of dynamic information dissemination in micro-blog network.According to the micro-blog network information dissemination process, a simple and intuitive description model based on Petri nets is proposed. This paper uses the theory of Petri nets to explain and define the basic objects of message propagation based on the user structure of micro-blog network, and more directly shows the user behavior, including reposting, commenting, replying and so on. On this basis, in the combination with colored Petri nets and timed Petri nets, the feature of Petri nets is used to present the message transmission path from the perspective of Petri nets system. the dynamic property and propagation conditions of micro-blog network are also studied, so that the information propagation model can simulate the message transmission more actually. Finally, the case study of the information diffusion model is carriedon and real data on Sina micro-blog are used to do experiments and analysis, which demonstrate the feasibility and availability of the model and provide supports for public opinion analysis and user behavior research. Meanwhile, this model can further provide a new idea for describing user behavior in message propagation system of other social networks. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Enterprise Eco-innovation Strategy Based on Carbon Trading System CAI Wu-gan, LI Guang-pei 2018, 26 (12):  168-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.016 Abstract ( 601 )   PDF (1163KB) ( 373 )   Save Eco-innovation is an effective carrier and basic way to realize energy saving and emission reduction.In the end of 2017, China started the national carbon trading system. In this context,it is a very important theoretical and practical significance to study the optimization of enterprise eco-innovation decision. Eco-innovation is divided into the ecological process innovation and the end-of-pipe treatment. By building a three-stage game model of cooperation and competition strategy within carbon trading system, the inverse method is used to obtain the equilibrium solution of each stage, then the level of ecological process innovation, end-of-pipe treatment, the optimal carbon emission standard and social welfare are compared. Results show that:the cooperation strategy is better than the competition strategy. Based on the data of electric power industry in Hubei Province,the simulation further finds that the reduction of carbon emission standard will reduce the level of ecological process innovation, increase end-of-pipe treatment. There is a negative correlation between R&D cost coefficient and the level of ecological process innovation. In addition, the socially optimal technology spillover coefficient is 0.8. The article provides several implications for both policy makers and enterprise managers. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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On Relationship between Shared Value Propositions and Firms' Innovation Capabilities: Customer Empowerment as Mediator ZHANG Jun, CHEN Xiao-ping, JIANG Zhong-shuang 2018, 26 (12):  177-185.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.017 Abstract ( 556 )   PDF (915KB) ( 565 )   Save Coming the era of time-based competition, since the term of "gaining the users, gaining the markets" has been recognized as a consensus, more and more firms tend to employ users to participate into their innovation processes to help them to gain competitive advantage. While users' participation in a firm's innovation will make the loop of value creation and consumption closed which does facilitate a firm to create value more effectively and efficiently, it also makes firms' innovating process much more complex to be handled for the reason that a firm has to open its innovation processes to outside. Then, what on earth is the effect of users' participation in a firm's innovation processes on a firm's innovation? Theoretically, by taking users as external source of innovation, scholars of user innovation pay more attention to incentives that drive users to innovate or participate in a firm's innovation processes, with ignorance of the effect of user's participation in a firm's innovation processes on a firm's innovation capabilities. Literature of marketing on users or customers' participation in the processes of new product development focuses more on customers' satisfaction or a firm's financial performance or market share than innovation capabilities influenced by user's participation. However, the mechanism of how a firm attracts its users to involve into the processes of innovating and translates the efforts of both the firm and their users make in the processes of innovating into the firm's innovation capabilities has not been explored systematically. Based on the theories of value co-creation, user innovation and firms' innovation capabilities, using data collected from 202 domestic enterprises, the mechanism of how users' participation in a firm's innovation influences a firm's innovation capabilities is explored. The construction of user-enterprise shared value propositions is explored firstly. Following the logic of "incentives construction empowerment introduction capabilities' development", the mechanism of a firm's innovation capabilities' leveraging is explored from perspective of value co-creation by the user and the enterprise. Findings are got as follows:(1) Social value expectation holding both by user and enterprise facilitates a firm to leverage its innovation capabilities, including incremental and radical innovation capabilities, namely, ambidextrous innovation capabilities. (2) Functional value expectation of uniqueness holding both by user and enterprise could improve a firm's incremental innovation capabilities. (3) Customer empowerment plays a role of mediator between social value expectation and incremental innovation capabilities. Our findings contribute theory of user innovation by identifying conditions of application of theory of user innovation. They also contribute to the theory of value co-creation by operationalizing the construct of shared value proposition in context of firms' innovation. Finally, our findings may provide firms guidance to design their organizing process and incentives to attract users to take part in innovation processes to leverage their innovation capabilities effectively. Meanwhile, a firm has to be warned not to keep in too close touch with their usual users, because too close relationship between a firm and its users may produce lock-in effect, which may drop a firm in success-trap, especially when the environment changes radically. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on the Inner Mechanisms of Knowledge Distribution, Depreciation on Industrial Clusters' Innovation Patterns ZHANG Ying-qing, FAN Ru-guo, LUO Ming 2018, 26 (12):  186-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.018 Abstract ( 598 )   PDF (1914KB) ( 309 )   Save It has not been fully understood what the mechanisms are responsible for industrial cluster's innovation. In this paper, to investigate the mechanisms and effects of knowledge distribution and depreciation on industrial cluster's innovation patterns, endogenous knowledge spillover willingness and absorptive capacity are cossidered from the perspective of knowledge flow. Then, a modified industrial cluster's evolutionary model is proposed, including three kinds of innovation patterns. The simulation experiment is carried out on a cluster network. The results of simulation indicate that blending innovation demonstrates the best of innovative output, and different evolutionary paths of innovative output are presented between the external absorptive innovation and internal independent innovation. And in terms of the external absorptive innovation and blending innovation, industrial cluster with evenly knowledge distribution performs the best of innovative output, followed by industrial cluster with concentrated knowledge distribution and industrial cluster with heterogeneous knowledge distribution, while in terms of internal independent innovation, the best of innovative output comes from the industrial cluster with concentrated knowledge distribution. In addition, sensitivity for knowledge depreciation shows the phased differences among three kinds of innovation patterns. The conclusions would have good theoretical and practical significance for industrial cluster's innovation and sustainable development. References | Related Articles | Metrics