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20 March 2020, Volume 28 Issue 3 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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New Coronavirus Pneumonia, Population Migration and Epidemic Prevention and Control YANG Hua-lei, WU Yuan-yang, LIN Xue-yu 2020, 28 (3):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.001 Abstract ( 725 )   PDF (1116KB) ( 597 )   Save Faced with the new corona virus pneumonia (COVID-19) that began in 2019 spread rapidly, what is the mechanism of its infection and what factors affect it? What role does population migration play in infection? By observing variables in population migration, the key points of prevention and control can be know. The answers to these scientific questions will help prevent the spread from the current epidemic and provide experience for similar epidemic in the future.The first step is to construct a kinetic equation for the new coronavirus. The increase in the number of infections is proportional to the product terms of the number of susceptible people S(t), the number of infected people I(t) and the transmission medium λ. Based on the infectious disease model, after the theoretical deduction, it is found that under the same transmission medium and medical conditions, the key to the spread of new coronavirus is the contact between infected and susceptible people, and the main channel to increase contact is population migration, especially related to Hubei. After further theoretical reasoning, it is found that vaccination of susceptible population will reduce the number of infections. The second step is to verify the above-mentioned theoretical inference from experience.Based on the timely big data report of the Baidu epidemic, the number of infected people in each province is obtained. Based on the data of the 1% population sample survey in 2015, the data of population migration variables related to Hubei is obtained, and based on the 2018 China Statistical Yearbook, other control variables is obtained that may affect the number of infected people in each province. Using the general least squares model and empirical proof, it is found that the number of people who moved to each province from Hubei and the number of people who moved to Hubei from each province produced a significant positive effect on the number of infected people in each province. After further research, it is found that the key factor that affects the population of Hubei to migrate to each province is whether the economic situation of the residents is better than that of Hubei Province. The permanent resident population of each province, geographical location and the convenience of transportation to Hubei significantly affect the number of people who migrate to Hubei from other provinces. From the perspective of population migration variables, how can we prevent and control the epidemic? For the destination of Hubei people's migration, we should focus on the prevention and control in those areas with better economic conditions than in the epidemic areas, such as Guangdong and Zhejiang, which are the first and second choice for people in Hubei to go. For the source of Hubei people's migration, we should focus on prevention and control of those provinces with large populations that are adjacent to Hubei and have extremely convenient transportation with Hubei, which are the main sources of non-local persons in Hubei, such as Henan and Hunan. In addition to reducing the population migration variables related to the epidemic area, the theoretical analysis also find that reducing the contact between the susceptible population and the infected population, weakening the transmission medium, improving the medical level, and vaccinating the susceptible population can also inhibit the spread of the disease. The theoretical significance of this article lies in timely analyzing the transmission mechanism of new coronavirus. The above theoretical inference is proved empirically: The key to the transmission of it is the contact between the infected and susceptible people and the main channel form of increasing the contact is the population migration,especially related to Hubei. The practical significance of the article is to provide some inspirations for early warning and to prevent current and future epidemic from the perspective of population migration. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Optimal Design of Emergency Logistics Network for Epidemic Controlling based on Service Level LIU Ming, LI Ying-zhu, CAO Jie, ZHANG Ding 2020, 28 (3):  11-20.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.002 Abstract ( 833 )   PDF (1982KB) ( 461 )   Save To optimize the emergency logistics network when facing an unexpected epidemic outbreak, an innovative definition of emergency service level is proposed in this paper. The new definition gives consideration to both the objectives of demand satisfaction in the infected areas and the total emergency operation cost. After that, an optimization model of emergency logistics network based on emergency service level is presented. The proposed model systematically integrates the real factors such as population flow among different affected areas, population density in different epidemic areas, the second-level circular prevention strategy in practice, and the service radius limitation of emergency distribution centers. The influenza A (H1N1) in Jiangsu Province is taken as our example. The test results demonstrate that the proposed model can provide effective policy recommendations and decision support for emergency management. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Joint Dispatch Optimization of Emergency Materials Considering Traffic Constraints and Capacity Limits XUE Xing-Qun, WANG Xu-ping, HAN Tao, RUAN Jun-hu 2020, 28 (3):  21-30.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.003 Abstract ( 470 )   PDF (2184KB) ( 342 )   Save Aiming at the difficulty of transporting emergency materials after large-scale disaster, the route optimization problem of vehicle-helicopter joint dispatching in emergency response is studied. Considering the post-disaster who only allow specific rescue tools, some affected areas and the rescue tools by quantity and loading capacity constraints, in this paper, with an average time of waiting for rescue affected areas the shortest and minimise the economic cost of emergency system as the target, emergency supplies with passage constraint joint multi-objective optimization model are constructed under the condition of capacity constraints,and then according to the random variable neighborhood search and classification the ideas of the cross, a kind of non dominated sorting hybrid evolutionary algorithm with elitist strategy (NSHEA-II) is designed to evaluate, and use the example analysis to the model and algorithm validation. Compared with NSGA-II algorithm, the NSHEA-II algorithm constructed in this paper has significant optimization effect and strong stability. This model and algorithm can provide effective technical support for the delivery of large-scale disaster emergency supplies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Emergency Materials Reserve Strategies Considering Expected Redeployment Based on Cloud Services REN Hui, WANG Dong-yu 2020, 28 (3):  31-39.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.004 Abstract ( 446 )   PDF (1387KB) ( 209 )   Save Emergency materials reserve is one of the effective means to deal with unexpected disasters. In order to satisfy the reserve principle of people-oriented, maintaining stability and overall coordination, this paper uses cloud service mode to redeploy materials uniformly under the shortage of reserves. According to population coverage rate and expected materials demand of each reserve point in the emergency system, an emergency material reserve model considering expected redeployment based on cloud services is built with the goal of the fair utility of material reserve and the expected redeployment cost. Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm with elitist strategy (NSGA-II) is designed to solve the model. Based on the research results of regional division of emergency materials reserve in China, the proposed model is used to optimize the deployment of emergency materials in the divided regions. Through the analysis of the statistical data of natural disasters in China from 2000 to 2011, the probability of disasters occurrence in different regions and the occurrence probability of different disaster degrees during the planning period are estimated. The developed NSGA-II is programmed by using MATLAB 2011b software to obtain the material allocation quantity of each reserve point under different preferences. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is made for the total amount of materials reserves. The results show that the expected redeployment cost is reducing with the increase of the total reserves. When the increase of the purchase cost is less than the reduction of expected redeployment cost, the total expenditure will decrease with the increase of total reserves. The optimal value of total reserves is obtained until the reduction of total expenditure reaches the maximum. The purchase cost and unit weight of materials are the decisive factors of the impact of the total reserves on the total expenditure and the expected redeployment cost. For the unit material with larger weight and smaller purchase cost, the total reserves should be more; on the contrary, the total reserves should be less. Therefore, this research is helpful for emergency command system to realize the unified allocation and sharing of materials, to avoid duplicate investment and to save money. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-period Optimization Model of Multi-type Emergency Materials Allocation Based on Fuzzy Information WANG Yan-yan, SUN Bai-qing 2020, 28 (3):  40-51.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.005 Abstract ( 506 )   PDF (1643KB) ( 172 )   Save Scientific and efficient material allocation is the essential prerequisites for successful emergency response, and are the important factors that affecting the overall effectiveness of rescue and reducing losses in disaster areas. Due to the suddenness of disasters and the urgency of emergency rescue, combined with the impact of secondary disasters, it is often impossible to obtain relevant information accurately during the emergency rescue process, which increases the difficulty for emergency material allocation. One critical issue in such extreme situation is how to formulate a scientific and rational emergency material allocation plan to achieve multi-period effective supply of relief materials, which meets the realistic demand of multi-period allocation of emergency materials for large-scale disasters. In order to form a reasonable material allocation scheme, this paper proposes an optimal decision model for multi-period dynamic allocation of emergency materials based on the suddenness of disasters, the incompleteness of information acquisition and the urgency of emergency rescue. Firstly, the interval number is introduced to describe the fuzzy uncertainty of the supply and demand of emergency materials, and the triangular fuzzy number is introduced to describe the maximum amount of material transportation per period under the condition of limited road network capacity. Secondly, considering the dynamic changes of demand, supply and maximum transportation amount in different emergency periods, a dual-objective model for dynamic allocation of emergency materials is constructed by introducing delay coefficient, aiming at minimizing the total delay time and total system loss. Thirdly, by designing the deterministic transformation method of fuzzy numbers and the objective weighting fuzzy algorithm based on two-dimensional Euclidean distance, the proposed model are solved. A case study based on the Yushu earthquake is carried out to verify the validity and feasibility of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model can form a multi-period optimal material allocation scheme based on effectively trade-off the delay time and system loss. Attaching importance to time preference coefficient may increase the total system loss, which indicates that the single consideration of time or loss preference coefficient is one-sided. The decision makers should grasp the "degree" of choice and play the mutual promotion role of their combination. Material allocation scheme is based on the preference of decision makers, and considers the vulnerability, importance, urgency of demand at different affected locations in each period, as well as the importance and timeliness of various emergency materials, which is conducive to improving the flexibility and practical applicability of multi-period decision-making. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Staged Modeling Analysis of the Dissemination Impact of Opinion Leaders MA Ning, LIU Yi-jun 2020, 28 (3):  52-58.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.006 Abstract ( 491 )   PDF (2261KB) ( 395 )   Save With the development of internet technology, social media has formed a complex internet society, with large-scale, complicated compositions and diversified forms. In the internet society, opinion leaders exert a crucial dissemination impact on the evolution of public opinion. Mixed with diversified rumors and false information, an emergency can easily trigger a public opinion crisis. The opinion leaders give play to their dissemination impact when internet marketers spread rumors and when official microblogs dominate the public opinion field. The internet marketer refers to people who spreading rumors online to earn big money, while official microblog refers to people or government organization who dispelling rumors to restore the truth. In this paper, the evolution process of public opinions is divided into two stages, each with different modeling methods to simulate the dissemination influence of opinion leaders in different stages. The first stage is when a public opinion crisis erupts, that is,when the public opinion crisis appears out of nothing. Regarding this stage, the paper mainly analyzes the diffusion influences of internet marketers. Based on the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), the paper aims to set up a model that considers the diffusion impact of internet marketers. In the new model, the three groups in the original SIR model are divided into four categories, thus broadening considerations regarding the dissemination impact of internet marketers. The second stageindicates the stage of quelling the public opinion crisis, namelywhen a public opinion crisis disappears completely. An analysis of the disproval impact of official microblogs at this stage is involved in this paper. Based on the Lotka-Volterra competition relationship model, how official microblogs give play to theirdisproval impact and compete with internet marketers isexamined. According to the measurement of the equilibrium point stability of the Lotka-Volterra model, there are four types of competition results between internet marketers and official microblogs, and the optimization result is that positive official microblogs win in the competition process. The paperconducts a simulation analysis of a staged model by combining specific public opinion cases. The research results show that the staged modeling of public opinion evolution can reflect the authentic evolution process. By emphatically analyzing the simulation of the communication influence of different opinion leaders, it is suggested that the government should improve its capacity to govern public opinion crises in four respects: ①the capacity to identify internet marketers,②the capacity of monitoring rumor propagation, ③the capacity of monitoring rumor propagation, ④the capacity of the competitiveness of official microblogs. When governing public opinion crises, the government should consider all aspects mentioned above in order to improve the governmental capacity to cope with emergencies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-scenario Evolutionary Game Analysis of Network Public Opinion Governance in Sudden Crisis QI kai, YANG Zhi 2020, 28 (3):  59-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.007 Abstract ( 857 )   PDF (2704KB) ( 341 )   Save In the internet era, online media has become an important carrier of rumors spreading, which seriously threatens the safety and social harmony and stability of China's network space. Compared with traditional media, online media has become an important force for informational dissemination in emergencies, with its characteristics of large users, fast informational dissemination, and strong interactive function. Facing the complex network environment, what is the evolutionary equilibrium strategy of the local government and online media after repeated games? What are the key factors affecting the choice of local government and online media to respond to online public opinion strategies? How to realize the co-ordination of local governments and online media to cope with sudden crisis events by adjusting the central government punishment mechanism? These new problems are worth studying. In this paper, considering the bounded rationality and information asymmetry of game subject, the evolutionary game theory is used to construct the evolutionary game model between the network media and the local government supervision department. Based on the introduction of the central government punishment mechanism, discussing the governance model of online public opinion,which is dominated by local government regulatory authorities and actively responded by online media. Firstly, constructing an evolutionary game model of local government and online media in response to the behavioral strategy of sudden crisis events, and solving the evolutionary conditions of the network's public opinion heat propagation system to the local stable equilibrium state. Secondly, in order to make the system evolve to a rational state, the central government punishment mechanism is included in the above evolutionary game model. Establishing an extended evolutionary game model in which local governments and online media collaborate to manage network sentiment in sudden crisis events and derive the optimal evolution strategy of behavioral strategy choices between local governments and online media. Finally, the different types of sudden crisis are selected as research cases, and multiple scenarios are derived from the behavioral strategies of online media and local governments. The evolution and stability of the behavior strategies of the two parties under different scenarios are compared and analyzed. The results of the study show that the public sentimental heat of sudden crisis events has a direct relationship with the choice of online media and local regulatory authorities. When the local government regulatory authorities are exposed to sudden crisis events, the economic losses and reputation losses caused by the vicious evolution of the network are constantly increasing, and the evolutionary systems of both sides will experience cyclical fluctuations. After the introduction of the central government punishment mechanism, if the punishment is higher than the punishment of the online media negatively responding to the Internet public opinion and the supervision input cost of the local government supervision department, and the system will ultimately evolve to a balance state. The conclusion of the study is providing a new idea for government departments to solve the network public opinion in sudden crisis. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evolutionary Game Analysis of Sudden Panic Buying Events Considering the Perceived Value of the Public WANG Zhi-ying, NIE Hui-fang, YANG Xue-liang 2020, 28 (3):  71-79.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.008 Abstract ( 550 )   PDF (1638KB) ( 296 )   Save The sudden panic buying event (PBE) could not only cause social disorder, but also bring huge economic losses. Thus it is of great significance to study the evolution mechanism of PBE to clear its evolution direction and regulation strategies. In view of the fact that the existing studies rarely consider the subjective perception behavior of the public and the problem of multi-player game in sudden panic buying events, the prospect theory is first used to describe the perceived value of the public in the situations of benchmark and panic buying respectively. Secondly, the role of participants (i.e., the public and government) and their game relationships in PBE are defined, and the game payment matrix is given considering the perceived value of the public. Then, an evolutionary game model between the participants is developed, and equilibrium points and their stability conditions of this model are deduced. Further, equilibrium results are analyzed in combination with different evolutionary stages of PBE. Finally, the validity of theoretical studies is verified by taking the salt panic buying in China in the 2011 Japanese nuclear accident as an example. Afterwards the impact of the rumor-refuting effect of governments and the expected value of the public on the evolution of PBE are tested. The results show that the rumor-refuting effect of governments could affect the steady state of PBE and the time it evolves to the steady state. The expected value of the public could not only affect the emergence of PBE and the speed at which it reaches steady states, but also affect the number of people at any time in the process of eliminating PBE. The above results could provide reference for identifying the evolution mechanism and law of PBE and formulating regulation strategies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Coordination Model of Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Considering Technology R&D and Logistics Distribution CHEN Xiao-chun, ZHANG Wen-song, GU Wei-jun 2020, 28 (3):  80-92.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.009 Abstract ( 549 )   PDF (3063KB) ( 576 )   Save As medical reform policies are implemented and consolidation in pharmaceutical distribution industry accelerates, pharmaceutical supply chain management is constantly upgrading, stiffer competition will improve market concentration. The two-invoice policy breaks the distribution pattern of benefits in the pharmaceutical supply chain. In order to prevent the disconnection of the supply chain due to the instability of supply chain restructuring, a rational pharmaceutical supply chain coordination strategy is explored to give pharmaceutical supply chain and its member appropriate incentives. It is important for improving the efficiency of supply chain management and broadening the profit margins of member companies. The pricing strategy and the coordination of pharmaceutical supply chain under two-invoice policy is investigated. The Stackelberg game model is used to analyze a three-echelon supply chain consisting of one pharmaceutical manufacturer, one pharmaceutical distributor and one retailer pharmacy or hospital. The R & D technology (e1) and logistics capability (e2) are both considered. The relationship between the pharmaceutical manufacturer and distributor are modeled as a Stackelberg game, where the manufacturer is the leader and the distributor is the follower. The manufacturer can employ e1 to improve the effectiveness of drugs. The distributor can employ e2 to improve distribution efficiency of drugs. Market demand is affected by the selling prices(Pr), e1 and e2.By analyzing the optimal pricing decisions and profits in centralized and decentralized systems, the paper puts forward 5 propositions. The optimal selling prices and order quantity are analyzed, and the profits of the supply and its member under both centralized and decentralized decision systems are compared. Then, to improve the performance of the decentralized system, price discount and revenue-sharing contracts combination are proposed to coordinate the supply chain and provide the conditions under which price discount contracts can coordinate the supply chain. In the first part numerical experiments are used to illustrate the effects of e1 and e2 parameters on the decisions of pharmaceutical supply chain. It is found that when the e2 assigned to a pharmaceutical distributor is adequate, the e1 has a positive effect on the supply chain and its members’ profit, and when the e1 assigned to a pharmaceutical distributor is adequate, the e2 has a positive effect on the supply chain and its members’ profit. The second part demonstrates the approach to find the interval of the revenue-sharing coefficient (δ1,δ2,μ,ε)and identifies the coordination effects between price discount and revenue-sharing contracts. Some valuable decision suggestions are provided. The results of the study will assist supply chain members to manage and optimize their R & D and logistics level and pricing decisions. Our results can provide decision-makers and policy-makers with some new managerial insights under the reform of Medicine. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Hospital Inpatient Bed Management Based on Two-stage Medical Service Process SONG Hong-fang, CHU Hong-rui, ZHANG Wen-si 2020, 28 (3):  93-102.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.010 Abstract ( 570 )   PDF (1764KB) ( 505 )   Save The gap between supply and demand in healthcare service is becoming more and more serously with the improvement of medical requirements. Moreover, one of the most significant problems is the shortage of bed capacity around the world. Furthermore, most patients should go through a treatment stage and recovery stage in medical service procedure which has not been studied sufficiently. In this paper, a resource allocation study of healthcare beds is present that formulates patient’s medical service process by a two-stage queuing model. The two-stage queuing model includes a compulsory treatment stage and a recovery stage. Firstly, dividing the state of healthcare service system into three situations, the probability equations of the treatment queuing are gotten by supplementary variable method under the fixed service number constraint respectively, then the partial differential equations is solved by characteristic equation method with boundary conditions and the probability expression of healthcare service system state. Using this expression, the customer deny probability and average recovery service time can be further calculated. Furthermore, considering the risk factors that a new patient is unable to get treatment and the patients who has recovered are early discharged due to bed capacity shortage, the medical bedroom allocation model is developed based on the queuing indexes, and dynamic programming analysis is given. Finally, the numerical analysis is to implement according to Chinese Health Statistics data and the simulation data. The result shows that the traditional one-stage model has a significant difference allocation result compared with our two-stage model, and patient’s arrival rate has significant impact on optimal bed allocation in the proposed model. Furthermore, management insights are provided according to numerical result and further work is given in conclusion. This study can be used to improve the efficiency of healthcare resource and be extend to support the similar researches about two-stage service system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-objective Dynamic Facility Location-transportation Problem in Emergency Humanitarian Logistics SUN Hua-li, Chai Li-ping, ZHANG Ling, ZHAO Zhe 2020, 28 (3):  103-112.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.011 Abstract ( 532 )   PDF (2022KB) ( 409 )   Save The sudden and destructive earthquake disasters often lead to some casualties cannot be transported quickly and timely, which will cause anxiety and panicto casualties andaffect the efficiency of emergency rescue. Transporting casualties from earthquake-affected areas to on-site clinics or general hospitals are vital after devastating earthquake strikes. On-site clinics are established near disaster areas such as racecourses or airports to provide simple treatment and general hospital can provide comprehensive treatment in EMS for casualties.At that time, not only the optimal locations of on-site clinics and general hospitals, butalso the scheme of casualty transportation should be decided. In this paper,a bi-objective dynamic mixed integer programming model combining emergency medical facilities location and casualty transportation for casualty response planningin various period safter earthquake is developed, in which all the casualties were transported to the on-site clinics by ambulance, then the more serious casualties in stable condition were transported to the general hospital for comprehensive treatment by helicopter. The dynamic change of the emergency medical resources, survival probability change and the psychological status of the various casualtiesover timeare considered. The objective is to maximize the survival quantity and minimize the psychological costof the casualties.The epsilon constraint method is used to transform bi-objective model effectively. Then CPLEX is used to solve the cases based on Yushu earthquake. Finally, sensitivity analysis shows that the capacity of on-site clinics and the number of the ambulances have greater effect on the objective value compared with the capacity of general hospitals and the number of the helicopters. The number of ambulances should be increased to transported more serious casualties in the early stage of the disaster and the capacity of temporary hospitals should be increased to transport more mild casualties in the middle and late period in order to improve the survival rate of casualties and decrease the psychological costs.The scientific decision-making basis for casualty response planning is provided and the basic theory of emergency medical rescue is developed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evolving Model of Information Towards Emergencies Based on Stochastic Petri Net WANG Zhi-ying, LI Yong-jian, WANG Wei-kang 2020, 28 (3):  113-121.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.012 Abstract ( 462 )   PDF (2426KB) ( 244 )   Save The evolvement of information towards emergencies (ITE) is usually triggered by emergences, and the negative public opinion crisis caused probably by the evolvement of ITE has a serious impact on the order in social life. Thus how to accurately grasp the evolving law of ITE is an important part of risk governance for public affairs under new situations of social development. However, few of the existing studies consider the problems of structured description and equilibrium changing law for the evolvement of ITE, and pay attention to modelling the evolvement process of ITE and its regulation mechanism from the perspective of system. Therefore, the internal and external attributes of the evolvement of ITE are first extracted by case analysis and structured description method. Then, an evolving system is designed according to the time sequence relationships of attributes. Further, a stochastic Petri net model of the system and its isomorphic Markov chain are constructed respectively. Finally, taking the evolvement of ITE in 2009 source blockage incident of Limin radiation factory in Qi county of Henan province as an example, some experiments of scenario simulation are carried out to study the system equilibrium changes and its regulation. The studies propose the structured description, evolving system and different evolving states of the evolvement of ITE, and obtain the changing law of system equilibrium and its regulation mechanism. The results not only can provide normative guidance for the equilibrium study of complex information evolving process, but also can help to identify the impact of regulation measures on the probability of information evolves to some negative states (negative public opinion, rumors and secondary events, etc.). On such basis, the problems of evolving law and its regulation for multiple ITE with collision and coupling mechanism are suggested to be taken into account in future studies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Investment Optimization and Resilience Enhancement of Power System under Ice Storm Disaster LI Jing, WANG Guo-qing, ZHU Jian-ming, XU Kang 2020, 28 (3):  122-131.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.013 Abstract ( 512 )   PDF (1065KB) ( 487 )   Save In recent years, resilience has become a hot topic in different research areas especially in infrastructure. Power system is the key to ensure the normal operation of hospital, school and other organizations. Natural disasters like ice storm have a great impact on the substation and transmission line, causing power outage and malfunction to users. So it’s important to enhance resilience of power grid and protect it from natural attacks. A resilience-oriented investment planning on power system infrastructure to minimize the load shedding and the investment budget is considered in this paper. A designer-attacker-defender model is proposed to enhance power system resilience in absorption and adaption. Transmission lines classification protection and DC deicer devices are taken into account as investment strategies to minimize impacts of ice storm. Differentiated dynamic protection is achieved. Tri-level optimization model is solved by two-level column and constraint generation algorithm(C&CG). Numerical simulation on power system of Qujing in Yunnan province is performed to demonstrate the rationality and effectiveness of the resilience-oriented investment planning. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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“Pricing of CMS Digital Range Notes” Based on Multi-factor LIBOR Model WU Ping, YUN Jun-chao, DONG Bin 2020, 28 (3):  132-141.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.014 Abstract ( 514 )   PDF (1080KB) ( 152 )   Save Nowadays, CMS derivatives have become a very important financial tool. It plays an essential role for investors to make profits and hedging risks. The pricing of CMS derivatives will also become more and more important as the demand increases. Due to the increase in usage, the use of the past hundreds of data to simulate the method is more and more cumbersome, and it will also consume a lot of time, is not conducive to the timeliness of the information. Calculating the analytical solution of CMS derivative pricing becomes an important issue. In the past, pricing for CMS derivatives was mostly calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. Thousands of data have greatly reduced efficiency. Moreover, investors prefer closed-form formulas because they are more convenient to calculate and are more conducive to calculating hedging risk parameters (Delta, Gamma, Vega). Using the multi-factor LIBOR market model as a framework to price CMS derivative products is a suitable method. It avoids the problem of insufficient one-factor model fitting, avoids the situation of big data simulation, and can solve the problem that CMS interest rates are not satisfied. The problem of normal distribution of numbers greatly simplifies the derivation process. In the later application, the model can be better promoted. In the first chapter, the analytical formula of the CMS interest rate is derived through derivation, and incorporates the formula into the framework of the multi-factor LIBOR market model. The second chapter derives the analytical solution of the CMS digital range bond. This is also the focus and innovation of the paper. At the same time, in order to test the results, the model was tested in the third chapter. The approximate formula of CMS interest rate is introduced gradually through the derivation of LIBOR market model, and the second-order variation method is used to obtain the approximate distribution of CMS interest rate and bring it into the subsequent model. The second-order variation method makes the pricing of the CMS interest rate closer to that of Monte Carlo, and the use of the LIBOR market model makes the simulation of the CMS interest rate not negative, making the CMS interest rate distribution more realistic. This provides good income expectations for investors investing or hedging. Solved the problem of effectiveness due to Monte Carlo data simulation. It solves the problem that the arithmetic mean of the lognormal distribution is not a lognormal distribution. At the same time, due to the introduction of the LIBOR market model, the negative swap rate is avoided. CMS interest rate derivatives are products that are traded in the OTC market and there is no price to look up. Unlike actual stock data, it is traded through the counter, so there are very few actual commodity prices that can be queried, which makes the actual product. The simulation becomes difficult to carry out. The third chapter data inspection is mainly done by comparing with the results of the Monte Carlo simulation. In practical applications, obtaining the analytical formula of the CMS interest rate is beneficial to the pricing of derivative products. The formula is in many ways similar to the BLACK classic pricing formula. The pricing of European bonds has a very good effect. Similarly, similar derivatives can be priced through the LIBOR market model to facilitate future research. The key is not to consider the big data simulation problem in the pricing process, avoiding a large amount of computing time, and providing investors with greater benefits. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Coordination for Non-instantaneous Deteriorating Item with Demand Dependent on Sales Price and Deterioration Time ZHANG Yun-feng, WANG Yong, GONG Ben-gang, DAN Bin 2020, 28 (3):  142-151.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.015 Abstract ( 538 )   PDF (986KB) ( 166 )   Save In a two-echelon non-instantaneous deteriorating items supply chain consisted of a single producer and a single retailer, the demand faced by the retailer depends on sales price and deteriorating time of the items. Non-instantaneous deteriorating items is selected which is widely existing in reality as the research object, and the time-varying demand function is constructed in accordance with the characteristics of consumer demand. The pricing and replenishment model of non-instantaneous deteriorating items supply chain under decentralized and centralized decision-making is established, and the equilibrium solutions of sales price and order quantity under two decision-making modes are obtained. By comparing the two decision modes, it is found that the sales price is lower and the order quantity and expected profit are higher under the centralized decision. Therefore, centralized decision-making is superior to decentralized decision-making from the point of view of supply chain system with non-instantaneous deteriorating items, and from the perspective of social welfare. In order to guarantee the expected profit and social welfare under centralized decision-making, the quantity discount contract is introduced to coordinate non-instantaneous deteriorating items supply chain, and the increment of expected profit after coordination is allocated with the help of the utility function of constant relative risk aversion and Nash's bargaining theory. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the process of solving the decision variables. The sensitivity analysis shows the influence on the decision variables caused by the variation of the characteristic parameters of the non-instantaneous deteriorating items. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Reference Point Adjustment and Purchasing Intention under Different Frame of Price Presentation DAI Jian-hua, MA Hai-yun, WU Ying-ying 2020, 28 (3):  152-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1318 Abstract ( 536 )   PDF (1561KB) ( 182 )   Save At present, most of the research on online consumers’ purchase intention is based on the statistical experiment method to analyze the factors that affect the consumers’ purchasing intention. The way that online store presenting their information is often mentioned as the characteristic factor. However, there is little research considered how "different forms" of information presentationaffect consumers’ psychology and their purchasing intention. The influence of different information presentation frameworks on consumers’ psychological reference points and purchase intention is studied. And a purchase decision model is built based on consumer psychological points. Then some advice for the future business is provided to present their information effectively. The results prove that:(1) The certain description and uncertain description of the same information will significantly affect the consumer's purchase intention under the risky framing effect, and the consumers' purchase intention and reference point under certain description is higher than that of the uncertain description. (2) Under the attribute framing effect, positive description and negative description will make the consumer purchase decision different. The consumer purchase intention and reference point under the positive description is higher than the negative description. (3)Under target framing effect, positive and negative information will affect the consumer purchase decision behavior. Consumers' purchase intention and reference point under the negative framework will be higher than the positive framework.Based on the above research results, the research of online consumers’ decision-making process is enriched from the micro level, and put forward management suggestions on how to effectively present information for online stores. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Modeling and Solving the Location-Inventory Problem with Nonstationary Demand Considering Carbon Cap-and-trade WU Jiang, WANG Min-ke, TAN Tao, Zhang Pei-wen 2020, 28 (3):  162-173.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.017 Abstract ( 474 )   PDF (1599KB) ( 233 )   Save Recently supply chain industry experiences a significant energy consumption growth drawing the attention of government, academia, and industry to its environmental impacts and the issue of low-carbon supply chain management. Supply chain businesses not only face the competitive market with uncertain demand but also realize the low-carbon competitiveness under the carbon emission compliance scenario. Thus, a green-focusedtwo-stage stochastic location-inventory model is required to integrate the inventory control decisions with the 3-stage network (i.e., supplier-DC-retailer) design decisions to deal with nonstationary demand, whose objective maximize the profits of the supply chain business including the sales profit and the low-carbon reward (i.e., trade extra carbon allowances).To be specific, given the allocated carbon-capΦcap, the carbon emissions associated with DC implementation (CEL), DC operations (CEO), and transportation (CET) are considered, then the carbon-cap difference is calculated as CEL+ CEO+ CET-Φcap. Thenegative difference reflects the low-carbon emitter can sell extra allowances to obtain incomes; otherwise, buy emission allowances to comply with the carbon-cap. To make inventory control decisions under the (t,s,S)policy, we explicit the formulations of optimal parameters based on the Newsboy adjustment method and linearization technique. Because the problem is of the NP-hard, a three-step hierarchical matheuristic algorithm is proposed, which features different initial solution construction modes, simulated annealing (SA) and intensification after SA. The case study from a supply chain company in China facilitates the verification of model validation and algorithm effectiveness. After investigate the impact of cost structures, demand uncertainty, and different carbon-caps on supply chain network design, costs, and profits of the supply chain business, managerial insights include: (1) integrated decision-making at strategic and tactical levels in supply chain management is necessary, separating them can only reach to sub-optimal results thus higher costs. (2) When facing nonstationary demand, supply chain businesses open more DCs to enhance the level of service; while the back-ordering cost is high, supply chain businesses alsoopen more DCs to reduce the probability of out-of-stocks. (3) The emission trading system encourages enterprises to achieve low-carbon through better operations to obtain the low-carbon reward, which is the most flexible and beneficial emission regulation; however, the most suitable caps and carbon prices depend on the environmental targets and the economic benefits. As the climate change is at issue around the globe nowadays, this model and algorithm provide solutions to supply chain industry’s operations and emission compliance also cast light on future carbon emission regulation schemes to be implemented in China. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Enterprise Collaborative Low Carbon Emission Reduction under Three-Dimensional Trading Mode XING En-feng, SHI Cheng-dong, YAN Xiu-xia, CHENG Shun-bin, LIN Jing, NI Shi-ping 2020, 28 (3):  174-181.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1456 Abstract ( 554 )   PDF (2291KB) ( 131 )   Save Under the low-carbon economy, the supply chain node enterprise transaction model has evolved from the traditional resource-product two-dimensional transaction to the three-dimensional transaction of resource-product-carbon emission rights. Faced with the change of trading methods, how the enterprises in the closed-loop supply chain of remanufacturing can cooperate with low-carbon emission reduction in the context of the uncertain low-carbon product sales market and the uncertain waste low-carbon product recycling market is studied in this paper. First, the "mean-variance" is used to describe the risk aversion characteristics of manufacturers, sellers, and third-party recyclers. Secondly, the objective function of expected utility decision making with differentiated weights in three-dimensional trading model is constructed. Then, with the Stackelberg game theory, the game relationship among the node enterprises in the closed-loop supply chain of low-carbon remanufacturing is analyzed, and discusses such important variables as the selling price of low-carbon products, the trading price of carbon emission rights, and the recycling grid of low-carbon waste products, as well as the change rules of expected utility of the node enterprises and the whole chain. Finally, through numerical examples and sensitivity analysis, the effects of carbon emissions, sensitivity coefficient of consumer low-carbon products and trading price of carbon emission rights on enterprises at all nodes under three game relations of zero sum, centralized decision-making and cooperative emission reduction are analyzed respectively. It shows that when enterprises cooperate in low-carbon emission reduction, the sales price and wholesale price of low-carbon products both decrease, the market share increases, and the expected utility of sellers and manufacturers both increase, which provides important enlightenment for the government to formulate low-carbon cooperative emission reduction policies. The degree of risk aversion, carbon emissions trading price, carbon emissions and low carbon products for consumers in sensitive coefficient and expected utility node enterprises, low carbon products market share, is a negative relationship, for how to design the relevant parameter, optimizing the low-carbon remanufacturing closed-loop supply chain management and collaborative reduction, has an important guiding role. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Risk Propagation Modeling and Simulation in R&D Network when Considering the Adaptive Behaviors YANG Nai-ding, WANG Jing-bei, ZHANG Yan-lu, SONG Yue 2020, 28 (3):  182-190.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.019 Abstract ( 496 )   PDF (2945KB) ( 257 )   Save In the modern society, faced with the complexity of technology, scarcity of the dynamic of market demands, it has become an effective mode for R&D project to form a network composed of many companies. Certainly, R&D network will help R&D firms to reduce costs and risks. However, when a firm in the network is not efficiently involved in the R&D project due to changes of the external market environment or its own poor management, this kind of event will have a negative effect on other firms that cooperate with him, which may propagate and result in paralysis of the network, this phenomenon is the cascading failure of the R&D network. According to literature review, many studies focus on analyzing the cascading failure of the R&D network from the perspective of static network, few studies research the cascading failure of the R&D network from the perspective of adaptive network. Compared with the static network, adaptive network concerns that the network can actively change its topology during the cascading failure process. This is a ubiquitous and very important phenomenon, which can help us further explain the law of the cascading failure of the R&D network. Firstly, the BBV algorithm is proposed to build the R&D network. And the roles are generated to describe the adaptive evolution process when a node is infected. The adaptive model consists of two steps, one is to choose the tie to break, the other is to choose the node to generate new tie for the susceptible node in the broken tie. Secondly, the cascading failure model of the R&D network is proposed, combined with the characteristics of the R&D network and the SIS model. Compared with other cascading failure models, such as the Load-capacity model and the Mean-field, this model can represent the discrete spatial and temporal evolution of the cascading failure of the R&D network. Finally, different effectiveness of these rewiring strategies is analyzed against the cascading failures of the R&D network under different values of some critical parameters. The simulation results show that (1) C1 strategy enhances the hierarchy and community strength of the R&D network and mitigates the propagation of risk in the R&D network to a certain extent. The establishment of new connections between nodes under C2 strategy is basically based on the proximity, which is easy to fall into path dependence and ability traps. (2) The adaptive behavior of R&D network will lead to the fluctuation of community strength, the decrease of average path length and the increase of average clustering coefficient reflect the effectiveness of C1 strategy. (3) Under the C1 strategy, there is a "U" correlation between the rewiring probability p and I*, and I* decreases gradually with the rewiring probability p under the C2 strategy. (4) Under the C1 strategy and the C2 strategy, as the parameter ζ increases, I* also increases. It is known that the level of organizational dependence is a key factor in the mitigation of the risk propagation of the R&D network. The rules of risk propagation of R&D network when considering the adaptive behaviors are revealed and a theoretical basis for R&D network governance in the context of network operation is provided. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Interactive Relationship between Individual Investor Sentiment and Stock Price Behaviors HUANG Chuang-xia, WEN Shi-gang, YANG Xin, WEN Feng-hua, YANG Xiao-guang 2020, 28 (3):  191-200.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.020 Abstract ( 597 )   PDF (978KB) ( 541 )   Save The measure of individual investor sentiment in Chinese stock message board Guba Eastmony and its interactive relation to the market returns and trading volume is investigated. In order to measure sentiment, the construction of sentiment lexicon is a key procedure. Traditional methods for lexicon acquisition are commonly based on Semantic Orientation from Pointwise Mutual Information(SO-PMI) algorithm. A novel algorithm Semantic Orientation from Laplace Smoothed Normalized Pointwise Mutual Information(SO-LNPMI) is proposed, which has the higher accuracy for sentiment classification. Empirical analyses on the interactive relationship between individual investor sentiment and market returns and trading volume show that: (i) positive sentiment is the cause of market return while passive sentiment does not cause it; (ii) investor sentiment and trading volume present two-side Granger causality. In addition, an interesting phenomenon is that individual investors are enthusiastic about the use of emoticons when individual investors are positive. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Bilateral Bidding Mechanism for Cloud-Based On-Demand Transport Services ZHOU Le-xin, XU Hai-ping, LI Ye 2020, 28 (3):  201-212.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1765 Abstract ( 492 )   PDF (1792KB) ( 116 )   Save Cloud-based on-demand transport service marketplaces are usually based on the take-it-or-leave-it trading mechanism, where passengers and drivers can only accept or reject prices offered by the systems. Due to a lack of consideration for user requirements in such systems, system-generated prices do not necessarily reflect different situations of the traders, such as a passenger’s urgency degree, the actual running cost, and a driver’s expected profit.Since private information related to user requirements is incredibly valuable for determiningthe reasonable prices of trips, to design a trading mechanism for transport services utilizing such information become increasingly important. In this paper, a bilateral auction mechanism is produced for cloud-based on-demand transport service markets, where passengers and drivers are allowed to submit their bidsindependently.Our approach takes both passengers’ and drivers’ personal valuation of transport services into consideration. When a trip distance is less than a maximal distance determined by the market maker, an initial rate with a fixed fee is applied; otherwise, a passenger must pay by a unit priceno less than the price charged by a driver. Two rounds of bidding processes is considered: bidding for the initial rate and bidding for the unit price. In either round, trading price is determined p* that is used by all winnersof an auction. For example, in the second round, suppose we have n passengers with bidding prices bi, i=1, 2, …,n, and m drivers is sorted with bidding prices sj, j=1, 2, …, m. The bidding prices of passengers and drivers into b1≥ b2≥ … ≥ bn and s1≤ s2≤ … ≤ sm, respectively. Then it is found the positive integer k, called the efficient number of trades, that satisfies the requirements of bk≥sk and bk+1 < sk+1, where 1≤k≤min(m, n). The lower bound price is defined as lb=max(sk,bk+1) and the upper bound price is defined as ub=min(bk, sk+1). The trading price can be determined as p*=(lb+ub)/2. Since there must be an overlapping between the two ranges [sk,bk] and [bk+1, sk+1], it is guaranteed that p* exists. To support analysis of our approach, a success-oriented bidder as a bidder who tries his/her best to win an auction with non-negative profit, and aprofit-oriented bidder is defined as a bidder who tries his best to get more profit even at a high risk of losing the auction. Speculative bid of traders will inevitably reduce the trading successful rate of a passenger or a driver when the increase of traders’ profit is limited. It is proved that honesty is a dominant strategy for all passengers and drivers with success orientation, and an approximate dominant strategy for all passengers and drivers with profit orientation when the number of traders tends to infinity. It is further performed experiments where passengers and drivers demonstrate their speculative behaviors. For example, by generating random numbers of passengers and drivers in simulated auctions, it is shown that a profit-oriented passenger may try to increase his/her utility by placing a speculative bid, namely underbid, at the risk of losing the auction. This is consistent with our previous analysis that underbid is not a good strategy for success-oriented passengers. In addition, with multiple speculative passengers and speculative drivers in each auction, how the successful rate and trading price may be affected is studied. The experimental results show that the trading price has no obvious changes for various speculation degrees and percentages of speculative traders. In summary, our proposed bilateral auction mechanismnot only satisfies certain desirable properties, such as individual rationality, but also ensuresallvaluable profitable trades between passengers and drivers be supported. Furthermore, by analyzing speculativebehaviors of traders, it is shown that this trading mechanism encourages traders to provide honest bids, which helps to optimize the resource distribution of the platform. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Research on Influence Factors of User Innovation Community Idea Adoption Based on Elaboration Likelihood Model WANG Nan, CHEN Xiang-xiang, QI Yun-li, WANG Li-ya 2020, 28 (3):  213-222.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.022 Abstract ( 674 )   PDF (1827KB) ( 573 )   Save With the continuous operation of online innovation community, the conflict between the increasing user’s ideas and the limited cognitive resources of the community is more and more prominent. However, prior research related to online innovation community mainly focus on how to motivate users to contribute ideas, only a small number of scholars have studied the phenomenon of idea adoption, not clearly revealing the phenomenon of user idea adoption and still having great limitations. Firstly, most previous studies have implicitly assumed that the ideas submitted by users can be fully evaluated, which is inconsistent with the reality. Secondly, most prior studies considered the impact of individual factors on idea adoption and lack a systematic analytical framework of influencing factors for idea adoption. Further, there not be consensus on the impact of various factors on idea adoption.It is urgent to introduce a new system perspective holistically analyzing the antecedents of users’ idea adoption to fill in above gaps in prior researches. Through the review of literatures on idea adoption and Elaboration Likelihood Model(ELM), a four-dimensional idea adoption model is constructed based on ELM, including user community status, user contribution behavior, community recognition and creative quality. The model is tested by Stata14.0 software based on more than 163,000 ideas submitted from June 2011 to February 2018 by users in New Function Recommendations section of Xiaomi MIUI Community. The results show that the user community status has a positive impact on idea adoption; user initiative contribution has a positive impact on creative adoption and response contribution behavior has no significant impact on idea adoption; the community recognition of ideas has a significant positive impact on idea adoption; creative quality includes both the idea Length and Argument have an inverted U-curve relationship with idea adoption; the community absorptive capacity positively adjusts the curvilinear relationship between idea length and idea adoption. Based on Elaboration Likelihood Model, a four-dimensional model of community creative adoption which reveals the phenomenon of community idea adoption is constructed. The research expands the research perspective of idea adoption, broadens the application areas of detailed models and deepens the understanding of various factors on community idea adoption. Some implications are also provided for guiding users to better publish ideas and solving the cognitive load problem existing in community idea adoption process. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Development Status and Trend of Management Science in China LI Ruo-yun, WU Deng-sheng, XU Wei-xuan, LI Jian-ping 2020, 28 (3):  223-230.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.023 Abstract ( 604 )   PDF (2845KB) ( 338 )   Save The development situation and trend of management science in China during 2009 and 2018 are summarized in this paper, based on the research grants and journal articles data. The analysis results show that the National Natural Science Foundation of China is the main ressearch funding agency for management science in China. The number of projects and the budget of rearch grants have increased steadily. Moreover, the journal articles published in the important journal by Chinese scholors have grown rapidly. The number of journal articles has increased from 1,314 in 2009 to 6,309 in 2018, with an average annual increase of 19.04%.In addition, the proportion of first author or corresponding author's articles also increased from 69.03% in 2009 to 88.57% in 2018. The number of total journal articles from 2009 to 2018 of Chinese scholars ranked third in the world, and the the number of journal articles in 2018 of Chinese scholars ranked second in the world. The average annual growth rate of journal artices is higher than the average annual growth rate of research grants, and the number and proportion of funded papers have been increasing year by year, which demonstrats that the funding effectiveness of the NSFC has been significant. References | Related Articles | Metrics