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30 May 2020, Volume 28 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Testing the Nonlinear Cointegration Relation of Monetary Models of Exchange Rate Determination ——An Analysis Based on the Deep GRU Neural Network LU Xiao-qin, FENG Ling, DING Jian-ping 2020, 28 (5):  1-13.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.001 Abstract ( 505 )   PDF (3185KB) ( 241 )   Save The monetary model of exchange rate has been the focus of academic that many scholars have conducted linear cointegration test on it, which the results are not satisfactory.In this paper, three versions of monetary models of exchange rate determinations (Flexible price, Forward-looking and Real Interest Differential Models) are tested for six selected countries with floating exchange rate regimes, by applying the nonlinear Johansen cointegration tests, facilitated by the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network technique. The GRU technique has the advantages of intelligent memory, autonomous learning and strong approximation ability in deep learning. Based on country-by-country analysis, evidence of nonlinear cointegration between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals is found. This suggests the validity of monetary models and the advantage of advanced deep learning tools in testing economic theory. The concrete steps of the nonlinear cointegration test in this paper are: First, the long memory characteristics of the sequences are tested, because if there is a nonlinear cointegration relationship between the data sequences, it means that the sequence data must have the long memory characteristics. Secondly, the deep GRU neural network method is used to construct the nonlinear cointegration function, which has the transfer memory function that the ordinary neural network does not have, and has the advantage on the time series data mining. Finally, test whether the residuals of the constructed GRU model are short memory sequences (SMM). If the residuals are short memory sequences, the GRU can extract the non-linear characteristics between the sequences and prove the existence of nonlinear cointegration relationship between the sequences. The results show that: (1) The original sequence after normalization has the feature of long memory, which is suitable for the discussion with the nonlinear cointegration theory. (2) The residual of the nonlinear cointegration model constructed by GRU neural network is short memory sequence, which found evidence of nonlinear cointegration between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. In this paper, advanced deep GRU technology is introduced into nonlinear cointegration test, which can play a role in attracting valuable contributions to expand the tool box of cointegration empirical test. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Evaluation of Systemically Important Financial Institution of China: Based on Multivariate Extreme Value Theory LI Hong-quan, HE Min-yuan, HUANG Ying-ying 2020, 28 (5):  14-24.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.002 Abstract ( 513 )   PDF (2063KB) ( 119 )   Save After the 2008 financial crisis, too-big-to-fail issue for financial institutions and its systemic risk have attracted more and more attention. In this paper, based on the theory of multivariate extreme value theory (EVT) and copula function, the multidimensional evaluation indexes are proposed, and a comprehensive assessment of systemic importance is made for 26 listed financial institutions in China. The results of the empirical study show that: (1) The banking sector in our country has made great contributions to systemic risk and plays an important role in the financial system;(2) Scale is the main factor in assessment of systemic importance, meanwhile there are also other factors having impact on systemic importance, some joint-equity commercial banks and city commercial banks should also be included as the focus of the financial regulatory. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Empirical Study of Home Bias in Online Investments: Evidence from Online Financing Market GUO Li-huan, GUO Dong-qiang 2020, 28 (5):  25-38.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.003 Abstract ( 384 )   PDF (2569KB) ( 127 )   Save The rise of online financing has contributed to the prosperity of crowdfunding market. Investors' participation in a crowdfunding project is influenced not only by economic factors, but also by psychological factors. Among these factors, home bias is one of the factors. Investors' preference for local resources has been proven to be widespread in many other industries, but there is a lack of in-depth discussion in the area of crowdfunding filed. Home bias is often found in traditional transactions, leading the locations of buyers and sellers to converge. However, as the informationpresentation and the investment of crowdfunding campaigns are usually accomplished online, the crowdfunding theoreticallybreaks the limitation of geographical space, and home bias may not be significantly. To verify the home bias in online financing, we proposed the following three questions:(1) Is there any home bias in the crowdfunding market? And what is the difference between home bias at different levels? (2) The impact of home bias on investment behavior and pledge results; (2) How to explain the home bias of investors? We investigate Kickstarter by empirical models, we established the models of home bias incountry-level, regional-level and micro-level respectively. The key equations, such as c=sin(LatA)*sin(LatB)*cos(LonA-LonB)+cos(LatA)*cos(LatB) and Distance=Arccos(c)*R*Pi/180 are employed to calculated the distance between the fundraisers and the backers. At the meantime, dyadic analysis model is employed to estimate the economic impact of home bias on the pledged results, and the main model is prob(Investori backs Founderj)=β*SamePlaceij+f(InvestorInfoi,FounderInfoj,ProjectInfo)+εij. The following process is followed to solve the problem:first, whether there is conclusive evidence of home bias in crowdsourcing investment behavior is examined; then, if there is home bias unequivocally, what is the impact of hoe bias on crowdfunding financing results? Will home bias promote financing success or vice versa? Finally, the home bias in online financing for the psychology, behavior and economics perspectives is explained. The results of our study indicate that home bias is in crowdfunding investment exactly, but showing diverse patterns among different levels and projects. Drama projects are the most influenced by home bias, followed by food projects, while the game projects are the least impacted by home bias. A superimposed effect of home bias in crowdfunding is also shown, for example, the founder is able togain the support from investors of both areas when the campaign is launched outside the hometown, thus, obtaininghigher success ratio. For the distance between the investors and the founders, the average distance of drama projects is the shortest at 1474km, while the largest distance is found in game projects, which reached 4624km. The research of Internet financial and behavior pattern is enriched, and new perspectives for researches and practices in crowdfunding are provided. It is demonstrated that home bias exist and play a role in online financing, which makes up for the deficiency of existing theoretical research. In addition to E-commerce and other trading areas, the investors in online financing will also consider the geographical location of the project, and we set a fire for future theoretical research and practice. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Trading Strategies and Extreme Return Predictions based on the Recurrence Interval Analysis WU Jing, JIANG Zhi-qiang, ZHOU Wei-xing 2020, 28 (5):  39-51.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.004 Abstract ( 452 )   PDF (2199KB) ( 176 )   Save Predicting such extreme financial events as market crashes, bank failures, and currency crises is of great importance to investors and policy markers because they destabilize the financial system and can greatly shrink asset value. A number of different models have been developed to predict the occurrence of financial distresses. Here, an early warning model is built to predict the recurrence of financial extremes based on the distribution of recurrence intervals between consecutive historical extremes. The extreme returns are determined according to quantile thresholds which includes 95%, 97.5%, and 99%. By taking into consideration the time in which extremes occur, our prediction of extreme returns is based on the hazard probability W(Δt|t), which measures the probability that following an extreme return occurring at t time in the past there is an additional waiting time Δt before another extreme return occurs, where the hazard probability W(Δt|t)=. In this paper, three common functions are employed to fit the recurrence interval distributions, and it is found that the recurrence intervals follow q-exponential distribution. Using the hazard probability, an extreme-return-prediction model is developed for forecasting imminent financial extreme events. When the hazard probability is greater than the hazard threshold, this model can warn when an extreme event is about to occur. The hazard threshold is obtained by maximizing the usefulness of extreme forecasts. In order to test the validity of our extreme-return-prediction model, a recurrence interval analysis of financial extremes in the Shanghai Composite Index during the period from 1990 to 2016 is performed. The data before each turbulent period are used to calibrate the model and each turbulent period that follows for out-of-sample forecasting, which obtains three in-sample periods:2000-2002,2006-2009 and 2014-2016. It is found that the recurrence intervals exhibit the characteristics of positive skewness, fat-tailed distributions, and positive autocorrelations. Both in-sample and out-of-sample tests indicate that our model has great predicting power. Two trading strategies, including a long strategy and a short strategy, are further designed to check whether our model is able to provide significant profits. When the extreme positive return is greater than the threshold, a buying signal is gotten. When the hazard probability is less than the positive threshold after Δt time, a selling signal will occur, which is defined as a long strategy. For the extreme negative return, a short strategy is also defined. In addition to the Shanghai Composite Index, four stock indexes of CAC40, FTSE, HIS and N225 are also researched. The back tests reveal that the two trading strategies can efficiently avoid the decline stage, and the long strategy earn higher profits. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Product Differentiation Competitive Strategy Before and After IPO: Introducing the Stock-Price Information HU Zhi-qiang, HU Yuan, DI Chen-chen 2020, 28 (5):  52-61.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.005 Abstract ( 479 )   PDF (916KB) ( 159 )   Save A product differentiation decision-making model including the learning mechanism of stock price information is constructed, and the micro decision-making mechanism of product differentiation and the dynamic characteristics of enterprise strategy changes before and after IPO are discussed. Thetheoretical research shows that product differentiation strategy is only a short-term strategy choice for enterprises after their IPOs. The effect of product differentiation strategy will weaken annually, and the stock price of competitive enterprises can affect the implementation intensity of differentiation strategy.The empirical samples of this paper include 996 A-share listed companies with IPOs from 2005 to 2015.The empirical test is conducted based on the measurement of the degree of product difference and the matching of enterprises with homogeneous products, which support above conclusions.This paper is the expansion of the existing product market competition mechanism based on product differentiation. The research conclusion has certain enlightenment for the construction of the internal correlation between the domestic securities market and the product competition market, and the display of the reference value of stock price for enterprise decision-making. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Study of High-dimensional Volatility Estimators and Forecasting Models based on Volatility Timing Performance QU Hui, ZHANG Yi 2020, 28 (5):  62-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.006 Abstract ( 427 )   PDF (1636KB) ( 116 )   Save The selection of high-frequency data based covariance matrix estimators and forecasting models, jointly influence the forecasting performance of covariance, which therefore influences the performance of volatility timing portfolio strategies. When the number of assets is large, a lot of intraday data are not utilized in common high-frequency data based covariance matrix estimators due to non-synchronous trading, implying a loss of efficiency in information usage. Therefore, the KEM estimator which employs all the intraday price information is used to construct the high dimensional covariance matrix estimator in China's stock market, and its performance is compared, with two commonly used estimators. In addition, each of these three estimators is used in five forecasting models, namely the multivariate heterogeneous autoregressive model, the exponentially weighted moving average model, and the short-term, medium-term and long-term moving average models, and their economic performance under three risk-based portfolio strategies is compared. Empirical experiments with the tick-by-tick high-frequency data for 20 constituent stocks of the SSE 50 index show that: (1) The long-term moving average model is the best choice to forecast high-dimensional covariance estimators, since it achieves the lowest cost and the highest return for all the volatility timing strategies, no matter the market is stable or extremely volatile. (2) The KEM estimator is the best choice to estimate high-dimensional covariance matrix when the market is stable, since it achieves the lowest cost and the highest return for all the volatility timing strategies. However, the KEM estimator only achieves the lowest cost when the market is extremely volatile. (3) Among the volatility timing strategies, the equal risk contribution portfolio strategy always achieves the lowest cost, while the global minimum variance portfolio strategy always achieves the highest return, regardless of the market condition. The research not only for the first time evaluates the effectiveness of the KEM estimator in common volatility timing strategies, but for the first time empirically proves that the easily implemented long-term moving average model has significant superiority in high dimensional covariance matrix forecasting, and thus is of critical importance for applications such as investment decision making and risk management. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Decision of Economic Production Quantity with Quality-Contingent Demand and Perfect Preventative Maintenance LU Zhen, XU Jian, YANG Yun-feng 2020, 28 (5):  71-78.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.007 Abstract ( 412 )   PDF (1073KB) ( 198 )   Save Based on the classical EPQ model, and considering the quality-contingent demand and periodic perfect preventive maintenance strategy, the decision model of economic production quantity is constructed with the goal of maximizing profit per unit time. In the construction of enterprise unit time profit model, the dynamic preventive maintenance cost, recovery cost, defective repair cost and product demand rate are constructed according to the actual problems of quality-contingent demand and equipment degradation. Due to the complexity of the objective function, this paper uses genetic algorithm to solve the model numerically, and verifies its rationality by comparing and analyzing EPQ decision-making without considering the quality-contingent demand. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Soybean Future Prices Forecasting based on Dynamic Model Averaging XIONG Tao, BAO Yu-kun 2020, 28 (5):  79-88.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.008 Abstract ( 605 )   PDF (3062KB) ( 323 )   Save In view of the complexity of soybean futures price fluctuation and the diversity of influencing factors, soybean futures price forecasting is conducted by introducing the dynamic model averaging theory. It should be noted that this technique is capable of dynamically choosing the explanatory variables and coefficient of variation, which will maximize the utilization of various information to control the models effectively and coefficients uncertainty, and finally improve the forecasting performance. More specifically, an analysis framework on influencing factors of soybean futures price is proposed. The time-vary characteristics of soybean futures price's influencing factors are identified from the perspective of futures markets and economics environment, and then a forecasting model for soybean futures price is constructed. Furthermore, covering an out-of-sample period from July 30, 2009 to June 15, 2017, the forecasting performance of the proposed forecasting model is evaluated and compared with six benchmarks on the basis of accuracy measures and Diebold-Mariano test. The experimental results show that the dynamic model averaging can effectively identify the influence degree of each explanatory variables on soybean futures price, and at the same time, outperform the Bayes model averaging, time-varying parameter model, and random walk in soybean futures price forecasting. Policymakers should be cognizant of the fact that there are many potential predictors that can help to forecast the Chinese soybean futures price, and the predictive powers of these predictors vary over time. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Designing Contracts for A Closed-loop Supply Chain with Information Asymmetry under the Government's Reward-penalty Mechanism ZHANG Pan, YU Li-ting, XIONG Zhong-kai 2020, 28 (5):  89-100.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.009 Abstract ( 527 )   PDF (2062KB) ( 703 )   Save In order to develop recycling economy and realize sustainable development of human society, many countries have issued recycling regulations with the nature of reward and punishment. Under the regulations of reward-penalty, more and more manufacturers begin to recycle their waste products through retailers and then remanufacture them. However, the retailer's information of recycling cost is private and cannot be observed by the manufacturers accurately, which will reduce the performance of recycling operations and supply chain. Hence, in order to solve this problem, incentives contracts are designed by using information-screening model. In detail, the following questions are investigated: How to design the information screening contracts of the manufacturer? Whether is it necessary for the manufacturer to provide information-screening contracts to the retailers of all cost types? What are the characteristics of the information-screening contracts and the impact of information asymmetry? What are the impacts of mechanism of reward-penalty on the information-screening contracts and other equilibria results? A Stackelberg model between the manufacturer and the retailer is constructed. The manufacturer first provides a two-part contract menu to the retailer. Second, the retailer declares its cost type base its true cost information, and then decides sale price and collect rate. The model is solved by the methods of standard backward induction, i.e., first the retailer's optimal decisions are solved and then the manufacturer's optimization problem is solved, which includes the incentive compatible constraint and the individual rational constraint. Through using the principal-agent theory, revelation principle and optimal control theory, the optimal two-part contract menu and other equilibrium outcomes are derived. Based on these results, other questions are further investigated by comparison analyses and sensitivity analyses.The results show that as the retailer's collection efficiency decreases, the manufacturer increases the whole price and decreases the transfer payment. The profits of the manufacturer and the supply chain decrease and the profit of the retailer increases due to the asymmetric information of collection cost. Moreover, the execution of the reward-penalty mechanism induces the manufacturer to decrease the whole price and to increase the transfer payment. Furthermore, when the government's requirement of collection is high and the level of reward-penalty is low, the execution of the reward-penalty mechanism decreases the supply chain's profit; otherwise, the supply chain's profit increases. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Secondary Supply Chain Optimization with Social Responsibility Sensitive Consumption under Government Subsidy CAO Yu, ZHOU Mo-ting, HU Han-li 2020, 28 (5):  101-111.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.010 Abstract ( 502 )   PDF (2166KB) ( 536 )   Save With the development of global economy, corporate social problems become more and more prominent. Managers and researchers have begun to explore how to effectively encourage enterprises to undertake more corporate social responsibility and promote sustainable development, which has become a growing concern. In this paper, the decision problem of decentralized supply chain with government subsidy and corporate social responsibility under random demand is studied. Based on the game analysis model, a secondary supply chain composed of a supplier and a retailer is established. The influence of government subsidies on the optimal production and social responsibility input decision of supply chain is dicussed, and the supply chain efficiency under the leadership of suppliers and retailers is compared. The results show that in the centralized supply chain, the effect of price elasticity on the quantity of procurement and the total input of CSR is more prominent. When the government subsidy factor is added to the decentralized supply chain, the total income shows the trend of inverted U shape, and the retail dominated decentralized supply chain shows a rapid decline trend. And in the cost of corporate social responsibility input, increase government subsidies, in the supplier-led decentralized supply chain will enable suppliers to reduce the corporate social responsibility investment in unit products, But it has little impact on the retailers-led decentralized supply chain. By considering the optimal decision of the leader of the supply chain who considers the government subsidy in the decentralized supply chain to invest in the corporate social responsibility, the motivation of the enterprise is put forward to invest in CSR and the necessity and the optimal amount of the government subsidy. At the same time, it provides the foundation for the research on the coordination and sharing of corporate social responsibility input. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Strategy of Trust-based Supply Forecast Information Sharing ZHANG Yu-hua, DAI Geng-xin, SUN Hao, HAN Guang-hua, WANG Lei 2020, 28 (5):  112-121.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.011 Abstract ( 506 )   PDF (1006KB) ( 156 )   Save Information sharing has always been a hot issue in supply chain management research. Most of the literature focuses on demand forecast information sharing, assuming that the supply is deterministic. However supply uncertainty is a common phenomenon in reality and supply forecast information sharing also plays an important role in improving supply chain performance. The literature on supply forecast sharing assumes that the recipient of the information either absolutely trusts in the sender of the message or not at all. zer et al. (2011) confirmed through behavioral experiments that both parties trust each other to a certain extent according to their own judgments. Therefore, the supply forecast sharing strategy of supply chain members is studied from the perspective of trust.In order to explore the impact of trust on supply forecast information sharing and supply chain coordination, the operation of supply chain in centralized decision-making is analyzed. Secondly, the Stackelberg game is used to analyze the cases that the retailer absolutely trusts, completely distrusts, and partially trusts in the manufacturer. Finally, the operation of supply chain where the retailer trusts in the manufacturer to some extent is analyzed and the buyback contract is used to coordinate the supply chain. The results show that: the trust of retailers in manufacturer affects the performance of supply chain; the larger the psychological negative utility coefficient of manufacturer's lying, the more the manufacturer inclines to tell the truth; the buy back contract can promote the manufacturer to share the supply information truthfully; when the psychological negative utility coefficient of manufacturer's lying is larger, there exists an optimal buy back price which can achieve the supply chain coordination. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Drug Quality Supervision Strategy Considering Patient Feedback Mechanism under the Background of “Internet+Medical Health” ZHU Li-long, RONG Jun-mei 2020, 28 (5):  122-135.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.012 Abstract ( 652 )   PDF (5039KB) ( 305 )   Save Drug quality is related to public life and health, national economic development, social stability and national security, and has always been one of the hot issues concerned by the government and the whole society. Accelerating circulation of medicines in the context of "Internet + medical health" has expanded the scope of drug safety issues, therefore, establishing a patient feedback mechanism is an effective way to promote Internet drug quality supervision. Considering how to design an Internet drug quality supervision strategy under the patient feedback mechanism, based on the evolutionary game theory, a four-party evolutionary game model of drug quality supervision is constructed by drug manufacturers, medical e-commerce companies, government regulatory authorities and patients. The government regulation strategy and patient feedback mechanism to promote the supply of high-quality drugs by drug manufacturers are explored by analyzing the stability of the each player's strategy selection and the stability of 16 equilibrium points of replication dynamic system based on Lyapunov first rule. And the impact of each element on the evolution of various strategies is performed simulation analysis using Matlab 2017. The results show that: 1) The more likely patients are to have a distorted evaluation or a lower complaint rate, the more likely medical e-commerce companies are to choose not to test the quality of drugs, which is not conducive to the quality and safety of drugs on the Internet; 2) Under the evaluation of patient distortion, there is no stable strategy combination for drug manufacturers to provide high-quality drugs, and the effective feedback mechanism and supervision mechanism under real evaluation can make the quality of Internet drugs stable; 3) Improving the reputation added or reputation loss brought by patients' evaluation for pharmaceutical e-commerce companies and pharmaceutical manufacturers will make drug manufacturers choose to provide high-quality drugs as a stable strategy; 4) Reducing the rate of distorted comment of patients and increasing the behavior of complaining to defend rights both can enhance the stability of drug manufacturers in providing high-quality drugs. Finally, combined with evolutionary game model and simulation analysis results, the countermeasures and suggestions for improving the drug quality supervision mechanism are proposed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Discussion on the Effectof Social Control on Supply Chain Performance: Mediating Effect of Dependence and Supply Chain Integration FENG Hua, SHI Yu-ling, WEI Jiao-jiao 2020, 28 (5):  136-145.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.013 Abstract ( 417 )   PDF (1165KB) ( 108 )   Save In the context of economic globalization, in which the high market uncertainty and the diverse demand motivate the competition subject to change from single enterprise to overall supply chain, the key point for core enterprise to obtain competitive advantage is to effectively manage its supply chain. Although supply chain integration is an important practice to improve performance according to theoretical and practical views, there are still some obstacles that facing by supply chain integration researchers and practitioners, such as integration may lead to conflict between goals and resources, and the resulting opportunistic behaviors as well. Social control, a relational governance mechanism, can thus help to effectively solve these problems. Moreover, how managers use interdependence relationship between enterprises and adopt appropriate relational governance mechanism to promote the establishment of mutually beneficial dependence relationship, and further enhance overall competitiveness of the supply chain,may assume important strategic significance. Based on the above analysis, this article intends to explore the improvement mechanism of supply chain performance from two aspects, say, to regulate transaction behavior and reduce transaction costs through relational governance;and to implement of social control, from the perspective of creating value, to promote the formation of mutually beneficial dependence and the harmony operation of supply chain integration practices, thereby helping to create value and improve performance.By regarding of social control mechanism and dependence as the breakthrough point, this paper intends to discuss the resulting correlation mechanisms that may exist among social control and dependence, supply chain integration and supply chain performance, and then use Structural Equation Model (SEM) to simulate the probable action paths, with dependence and supply chain integration as mediating variables. Empirical results are as follows: 1) Social control has a significant positive effect on dependence, supply chain integration and supply chain performance;2) Dependence plays an incomplete mediating role in the interaction of social control over supply chain integration, and the indirect effect is greater than the direct effect;3) Social control can indirectly affect the supply chain performance through dependence and supply chain integration and the causality of the two,but the mediating effect of dependence is the largest(44%), the mediating effect of the causal relationship between dependence and supply chain integration is the second(37%), and the mediating effect of supply chain integration is the smallest (19%); 4)Enterprise scale moderates the relationship between social control/dependence and supply chain integration/supply chain performance. This paper attempts to enrich the research on the role of governance mechanisms to improve performance and clarify the role of supply chain integration practices as well.Empirical results demonstrate that through appropriate governance mechanisms, supply chains can make better use of dependence to enhance their overall competitiveness, which may exert a high reference value for managers to utilize supply chain network resources and gain competitive advantage. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Information Sharing Strategy among Competitive Companies with Capacity Constraints in a Supply Chain WU Jiang-hua, JIANG Fan 2020, 28 (5):  146-158.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.014 Abstract ( 553 )   PDF (1793KB) ( 524 )   Save In supply chains, it is increasingly popular that many companies start to share information with each other in order to gain competitive advantage. It is commonly observed that a significant amount of information is being exchanged between suppliers and manufacturers, between manufacturers and retailers, between retailers and consumers, and also among competitors to improve collaborations. Most supply chains literatures study vertical information in the absence of horizontal information sharing. Some papers investigate horizontal information sharing among competitors in a one-level market, in which interactions between vertical parties is not considered. Therefore, the present study focuses on the effect of horizontal information sharing across buyers on the supplier and how the supplier can affect downstream information sharing strategy using wholesale pricing in the absence of vertical information sharing. In this paper, the effect of bound equilibria of manufacturers on supplier's pricing and horizontal information sharing strategy is investigated by using a two-echelon supply chain comprising one upstream supplier and two downstream manufacturers. In this model, the supplier offers same wholesale price to both manufacturers, and the two manufacturers produce substitutable final products and engage in quantity competition with capacity constraints. By constructing a Cournot competition model, equilibrium order quantity and information sharing strategy for manufacturers are solved and the profit of the manufacturers and the supplier and the wholesale price under different information sharing strategies are analyzed and compared. In numerical study, an algorithm is developed to derive supplier's optimal wholesale price and the effect of capacity constraints on information sharing strategy and profit of supplier and manufacturers is studied by using a Matlab program. The results show that the incentives can be reversed when some equilibrium solutions are binding on capacity and we identify some conditions under which full information sharing or no information sharing is the dominant strategy. Upstream supplier can influence the manufacturer's information sharing strategies by adjusting the wholesale price. Manufacturers' ordering decisions and an algorithm for supplier's optimal pricing decisions under different situations are established in this study. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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JIT Assembly Line-based Order Picking Process Optimization Method for Online Supermarkets HUANG Min-fang, ZHANG Yuan-kai, WANG Yan-xin, HU Xiang-pei 2020, 28 (5):  159-166.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.015 Abstract ( 589 )   PDF (1463KB) ( 375 )   Save The online supermarket has become one of the most powerful engines that drive the online retailing market in China. It always sells huge number of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and normally has to store enormous stock-keeping units (SKUs) at multiple zones. How to efficiently and accurately pick up the ordered items from tens of thousands of commodities and package them? From the perspective of JIT assembly line, a new optimization method is proposed to streamline the processing of order fulfillment operations in warehouses, including order picking, order sorting (item collecting and checking) and order packing. Three working time calculation formulations are present first and then a joint optimization model of order batching and sequencing is formulated. The model is solved by a two-stage heuristic solution procedure, which decomposes the original model into a batching model with the consideration of the workload balance of multiple storage zones, and a Permutation Flow Shop Problem (PFSP) to sequence the order batches. The batching model is solved by improved relocate and exchange operations in Local Search algorithm while the PFSP is solved by the NEH algorithm. Finally numerical analysis is conducted to verify the effective of the proposed method. The results indicate that compared with the traditional wave picking method, the proposed method can substantially increase the efficiency of order picking for online supermarkets. The principle of JIT assembly line is introduced to order picking. A new problem solution idea is present for order picking and a theoretical guide for optimizing the whole process of order picking in online retailing is provided. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Systems Dynamics Based Strategic Model for Recycling Used Household Appliances with Environmental Protection TIAN Li-ping, SUN Qun, LI Wen-long 2020, 28 (5):  167-175.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.016 Abstract ( 540 )   PDF (3717KB) ( 259 )   Save Improper treatment of recycled household appliances could cause serious environment pollutions. However, in the current recycling and treatment system, the government recycles only a small portion of used household appliances with environmental protection while the private section does a large portion of them without environmental protection. Therefore, it is appealing to study the strategies for recycling and treating used household appliances via building dynamic systems based models. In this study, Beijing's recycling and treatment system of used household appliances is investigated, its inventory flow chat is created and the dynamic model of inventory flow is established. The numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of our model. Furthermore, analysis based on our model show that the collaborations among the government, the appliance manufacturers and the recycling companies can not only improve the recycling and treatment system with environmental protect, but also increase the profit of enterprises. The theoretic basis could be provided for the government to optimize the recycling and treatment of used household appliances. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Coordinated Acquisition of Trust Elements and Evolution of Potential in Low Molecular Decision-making Subjects XU Cheng-lei, ZHAO Chen-fang, DUAN Wan-chun 2020, 28 (5):  176-188.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.017 Abstract ( 476 )   PDF (3421KB) ( 71 )   Save The present studies on the algorithm of the consensus in a group decision are a general foundation on the hypothesis of the standardization and homogeneity. It tends to the general objects and hides the complexity of the decision-making among special groups. For low molecular subjects, it is very weak for the decision-making in cooperation in terms of the trust foundation. The capacity of the adjustment to the conflict is insufficient and the effective feedback of the communication is also insufficient. Based on the traditional method of the group decision, the model of a trust consensus acquisition for the low-molecular decision-makers is constructed. Firstly, differences among the subjective and objective trust, evolution of the inter-relationship, changes in the weight and trust consensus under discontinuous trust differences among the low-molecular decision-makers are focused on. After introducing the concept of the trust element to master the subjective and objective connotation of the trust element among the low-molecular decision-maker, it is based on the cosine similarity to study the consistency of the subjective and objective trust to use the algorithm of the multi-trust dynamic transformation, which ca demonstrate the subjective and objective trust range in the process of the subjective interaction. Then the discontinuous trust function is utilized and use the hesitant obscurity Einstein is used to seduce the ordered weighted set operator. And then it needs to calculate and gather of the discontinuous trust and the improved OWA operator should experience the subjective trust and weight transmission. It can describe the levels of the trust among the subjects and the evolution of the cooperation trend. Finally, the coordinated acquisition of the trust elements is becoming among the low-molecular decision-makers. The comparison shows that improved model of the coordinated acquisition of the trust elements is superior to the tradition method in terms of the speed of the acquisition and the consensus levels, which overcomes the vagueness of the characteristics of the traditional model, the lacking in comprehensive analysis of the content and the insufficient feedback information. It can be better to establish trust basis during the process of the decision-making among the low-molecular subjects, decrease the conflict and increase the effect of the inter-communication. This paper tends to explain the connotation of the trust element among the decision-makers and the norms of the transmission, which make further development in terms of the general premise and the research scope. It can offer a new type for dynamic acquisition of the trust consensus in an uncertain condition. It is a theoretical and empirical study. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Differential Game Models for Carbon Emission Reduction Competition Considering Horizontal Cooperation in Oligopoly Electricity Market YU Xiang-yu, HUANG Shou-jun, YANG Jun 2020, 28 (5):  189-199.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.018 Abstract ( 438 )   PDF (2160KB) ( 170 )   Save Under multi-oligopoly competition,mitigation competition considering horizontal cooperation in electricity market is studied using differential game theory. The duopoly competition model proposed by Bass et al. is developed,the carbon emission reduction model of multi-oligopoly competition differential game is constructed,and the optimal on-grid price,initial competitive and horizontal cooperative carbon emission reduction inputs as well as the generators' equilibrium value functions of the model are solved with Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. In the case of asymmetric generators,the impact of horizontal cooperative carbon emission reduction on market share is considered,and the analytical formula of market share of generators in stable condition is given,which extends the conclusions of Prasad and Sethi on market share. In the case of symmetrical generators,the correlation between the proportion of cooperative carbon emission reduction costs to total carbon emission reduction costs and market share is analyzed,and the parameter constraints satisfied by the optimal number of generators in the market are discussed. The results show that the initial market shares of asymmetric generators are equal,and the generator with the largest cost of carbon emission reduction has the largest market share when it is stable,while the generator with the smallest cost of carbon emission reduction has the smallest stable market share. Even though the initial market shares of symmetrical generators are different,there will not emerge an extreme situation in which a symmetrical generator monopolizes the whole market completely. Instead,each generator tends to undertake the same electric power supply task. Both the duopoly and triopoly electricity markets can always guarantee positive profits for symmetrical generators. Once the number of generators increases to more than three,it will not be guaranteed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Line of Sights of Competition Driving Strategic Transformation by Human Capital ——Evidence from Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturing Firms in Tianjin TIAN Li-fa, SU Zhong-xing 2020, 28 (5):  200-211.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.019 Abstract ( 436 )   PDF (1938KB) ( 114 )   Save At the beginning of the new round of industrial revolution, Chinese manufacturing enterprises need to stop and think: Enterprises should pursue low-cost strategy or differentiation strategy; How does HRM system, human capital and knowledge management play an complex mediating role when strategies guide innovation and enterprise performance; How can human capital and knowledge management stimulate enterprise's incremental innovation and radical innovation and improve enterprise's performance. Answering the above development problems at strategic level and resource level, visual pathways should be first explored in the research paradigm of "external environment, strategy, resources, innovation and enterprise performance" based on the line of sight theory and help managers and employees to "pursue shared goals and work in unison" around the enterprise development strategies. Chinese manufacturing firms usually implement low-cost strategy rely on order production with low-cost advantage of labors, and their products have less innovation and quality assurance, therefore hardly establish a brand image. In the twinge of transformation and upgrading, manufacturing firms can succeed in reform only by implementing differentiation strategy and promoting radical innovation, and then can be survived and form a core competence in the fierce competitive markets. Take an example of questionnaire data from 154 small and medium-sized manufacturing firms in Tianjin's industrial parks, this paper examines the line of sight of innovation inversely driving strategic transformation by human capital resource. Results indicate that there is one strategic line of sight which are "environmental competitiveness, differentiation strategy, radical innovation, and firm performance". The two resource line of sights are "differentiation strategy, HRM system, human capital resource, incremental innovation, radical innovation, and firm performance" and "differentiation strategy, HRM system, knowledge sharing, and firm performance". The three line of sights point out the specific path how to achieved strategic transformation and innovative change to Chinese manufacturing firms. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Price Competition Game among Electric Vehicle Rental Companies Considering Consumer Anticipation HUANG Yi-xiang, PU Yong-jian, XIONG Ai-lun, SHI Le-feng 2020, 28 (5):  212-220.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.020 Abstract ( 510 )   PDF (1628KB) ( 225 )   Save The purpose of establishing the electric vehicle rental market is to let consumers better understand the electric vehicle and solve the contradiction between supply and demand of electric vehicle in the short term. China began to subsidize new energy vehicles in 2010, and began to reduce taxes and fees in 2012. With the increase of government support, the automobile manufacturer has begun to produce electric vehicles on a large scale. However, due to the concerns of high purchase cost, battery safety and mileage, the consumer purchase rate remained at a lower level. Therefore, the automobile manufacturers setting up car rental companies to solve the short-term sales problems, so as to let consumers know more about electric vehicles. And this way of promotion has been positively responded by the market. But with the increasing number of participants, price competition is inevitable in order to compete for market share. Then, what are the optimal strategies for each participant in the competition? What is the equilibrium of game? These issues have aroused attention of both companies and academic researchers. Unlike general commodities, the electric vehicle rental market is deeply integrated with the Internet, which reduces the information asymmetry between renting businesses and consumers. Therefore, the companies can make more profits by dynamic pricing, and consumers also can make smarter consumer decisions. Some consumers will decide their best consumption opportunity by comparing the utility of consumption under current price conditions with that under future expected price conditions. When they observe a company reducing its price, they expect other companies to follow the price reduction, so they chose to wait. Therefore, it is necessary to take consumer expectations into account when studying price competition game in electric vehicle rental market, a point which has been neglected by previous studies. Based on the above analysis, a game model, which includes N rental companies, is constructed and the demand of companies is a function of all company prices. And it is assumed that the demand is a decreasing function of its own price and an increasing function of other companies' prices. At the same time, consumer expectations are incorporated into the model, which assumes that some consumer will not consume immediately, but will choose to wait, the proportion of this kind consumers is 1-θ. It is proved that this game is a super modular game that has a unique Nash equilibrium, and the impact of the price cut percentage, crossover price and the proportion of price sensitive consumers on equilibrium price, equilibrium demand quantity and profit are analyzed, so as to depict the complexity relationships between these variables. The results show that: the price cut behavior of any car rental company will lead to the same reaction of the entire market, and the range of price cut decreases gradually with the advance of the stage game, and eventually converge to the equilibrium price; the dynamic pricing game has an optimal combination strategy. The car rental company should be aware of the range of price cut and avoid excessive price competition; the equilibrium price is the decreasing function of consumers' expectations; the larger part of consumers that are sensitive to prices, the more fierce the competition and the equilibrium price is lower; the profit of large car rental company is the monotone increasing function of price sensitive consumers, and to the small car rental company is monotonous decreasing function. This means that the more price sensitive consumers in the market, the more benefit brought bring about to the big enterprises rather than small and medium-sized enterprises. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impacts of China's Energy Subsidies on Resource Efficiency and Environmental Pollution Control XU Xiao-liang, XU Xue-fen 2020, 28 (5):  221-230.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.05.021 Abstract ( 548 )   PDF (2584KB) ( 227 )   Save Efficient energy subsidy policy is considered to be one of an effective means to improve industrial competitiveness, but will also induce excessive energy consumption and environmental pollution problems. The paper constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium model(dynamic CGE model)to simulate the impact on Chinese economy, carbon emissions reduction, and smog emissions from a long-term span by energy subsidies. The research shows that: energy subsidy has a positive role in promoting macroeconomic for China, but will stimulate the energy consumption intensity to a certain extent; and the different types of energy subsidies program have differences affect on promoting economic growth. At the same time, energy subsidy will have an adverse impact on environmental improvement and carbon emission targets. In particular, coal subsidies can reduce energy use costs and greatly promote total industrial output and economic growth, but it will not help the environment, and subsidies for renewable energy will benefit. To improve the environment and carbon emissions, coal subsidy policy can directly reduce energy prices, the cost of the total industry output and the greatest impact on economic growth. Energy subsidy policy will have major environmental pollutants and carbon emissions greater negative impact, and renewable energy subsidies are in favor of energy efficiency and improve earnings per capita resources; hence, under the comprehensive view of economic growth and reduction of energy subsidies, the government must focus policy program coordination and integrity to adjust the energy policy of the socio-economic and environmental systems. In the short term, we should focus on fossil energy subsidies. In the long run, Gradually increasing subsidies for renewable energy is more conducive to low-carbon transformation and environmental improvement. References | Related Articles | Metrics