Table of Content

20 April 2023, Volume 31 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Long Memory Volatility and Cross-section Stock Returns: Empirical Research in Chinese Stock Market CHEN Miao-xin, HUANG Zhen-wei 2023, 31 (4):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1410 Abstract ( 590 )   PDF (1006KB) ( 739 )   Save Long memory processes are time series with long-range dependence and exist in numerous fields such as physics, hydrology, economics and finance. Long memory processes have drawn extensive attention from academics and practitioners since Hurst (1951). However, most of the existing studies have analyzed the long memory only in the time-series dimension. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first to examine the relationship between long memory volatility and expected returns in Chinese stock market from cross-sectional perspective. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Asymmetric Driving Effect of Investors’ Attention Frequency on Trading under Different Market Situations——An Empirical Analysis Based on Data on Users’ Behavior in Securities Service Mobile Applications CAI Wen-wu, LU Jing, ZHAO Yu-yang 2023, 31 (4):  11-25.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0105 Abstract ( 382 )   PDF (3293KB) ( 372 )   Save How investors’ information acquisition behavior affects their trading decisions is a basic issue in the capital market. Research in the field of behavioral finance holds that attention is a scarce cognitive resource for individuals. Therefore, investors usually selectively pay limited attention to a few assets, which results in the phenomenon of “attention-driven trading”. Although abundant existing literature supports investor attention's driving effect on trading, whether such an effect is asymmetric under different market situations is far from being revealed. To fill this gap, this study examines the asymmetric driving effects of investor attention frequency on market trading at good and bad market times. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Purchase Strategy of Business Interruption Insurance under the Risk of Operational Interruption LIU Chun-xia, CHEN You-yu, WANG Shou-yang 2023, 31 (4):  26-34.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1048 Abstract ( 404 )   PDF (1334KB) ( 418 )   Save As an important means of risk management, business interruption insurance can effectively transfer the risk of business interruption and help enterprises resume normal operation. In this paper, it is assumed that there is a supply chain system composed of only a manufacturer, a retailer and an insurance company. The manufacturer sets wholesale price and the retailer sets order quantity to meet the definite market demand, the insurance company sets appropriate price (premium rate) for insurance products to attract manufacturers or retailers. Supply disruption risk coefficient was introduced to describe the operational disruption risk, and disruption penalty coefficient, goodwill loss and financing cost loss were used to analysis the impact of disruption on the supply chain. On the basis of the above, four strategies in purchasing BI insurance qre explored: manufacturer's individual purchase strategy, retailer's individual purchase strategy, joint purchase strategy (joint purchase by manufacture and retailer) and non-purchase strategy. Double integral, convex optimization method and zero-point theorem are used to explore the purchase boundary of business interruption insurance, and to analyze the differences in risk transfer effects of different strategies and the similarities and differences in the value realization process. It is found that： (1)In terms the effect of transferring the risk of operation interruption, joint purchase strategy is better than no purchase strategy and retailer purchase strategy, manufacturer purchase strategy is better than no purchase strategy, and whether joint purchase strategy is better than manufacturer purchase strategy is determined by the value of ξR－φ; (2)Joint purchase strategy and manufacturer’s purchase strategy can realize the insurance value and increase its value. Whether the retailer has the same effect depends on the value of ξR－φ; (3)The premium rate is negatively correlated with the insured amount and the return on premium investment. Among the four strategies, the joint purchase strategy has the highest insurance amount and premium investment yield. To increase revenue, insurance companies should set the price of business interruption insurance on the basis of comprehensive consideration of premium rates, insured amount and investment yield, and actively develop new insurance products and insurance models;(4)The introduction of BI insurance can promote the cooperation of supply chain members, transfer the risk of business interruption, achieve a win-win situation for multiple parties, and ensure the continuous stability of the cooperative relationship through the conclusion of contracts. In conclusion, the exploration on the strategies in purchasing BI insurance offers decision support for companies in dealing with operational interruption risk, and studies on insurance pricing and product development provide theoretical guidance for insurance companies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Early Warning of Financial Crisis Based on the Spillover Effects HAO Jun, LI Jian-ping, FENG Qian-qian, SUN Xiao-lei 2023, 31 (4):  35-45.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1190 Abstract ( 392 )   PDF (6987KB) ( 284 )   Save Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and falling oil prices, global financial markets are under tremendous downward pressure. There is great concern and vigilance about whether the turmoil in the US financial market will evolve into a financial crisis. At the same time, the spillover effects between financial sub-markets have multiplier influences on the financial crisis. Under this circumstance, this study focuses on effectively describing the spillovers among financial sub-markets and accurately realizing the early warning of the financial market crisis in the United States. Firstly, based on the characteristics of recent financial market volatility under the impact of the epidemic, 15 financial crisis warning indicators covering 9 sub-markets are selected. Secondly, a novel volatility spillover network method, which is based on generalized prediction error variance decomposition and complex network technology, is adopted to characterize the spillover features among financial markets. Then, two integrated strategies for crisis warning signals are generated based on traditional integration weights and considering the spillover effects of warning indicators. Finally, the KLR signal model is operated to extract and quantify the crisis early warning signals of the US financial market under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, which will help our country avoid or reduce the possible damage caused by the financial crisis, ensure high-quality economic development and maintain social prosperity stable. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Impact Mechanism of Low-carbon Classification Standards on Carbon Emission Decisions of Heterogeneous Corporate LINGHU Da-zhi, WU Xin-li, LI Yi-na, YEI Fei 2023, 31 (4):  46-55.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0304 Abstract ( 383 )   PDF (1121KB) ( 588 )   Save The problem of global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions has become an important obstacle to promoting sustainable development. With the strengthening of environmental protection publicity and the intensification of climate change, consumers are paying more and more attention to the environmental image of enterprises, tending to buy low-carbon and environmentally friendly products, and willing to pay more for this. In order to better guide consumers to purchase low-carbon products and encourage enterprises to transform into low-carbon production, governments have divided and marked the low-carbon level of products by formulating low-carbon classification standards. At this time, the low-carbon classification standards of products, the relationship between the standards and consumers' low-carbon preferences, and how the two together affect the production decisions of enterprises have become the focus of government and enterprises. Considering the impact of product low-carbon characteristics and consumer low-carbon preferences on consumer purchase behavior, a heterogeneous corporate competition model is employed to study the relationship between the low-carbon classification standards of product and consumer low-carbon preferences, and the impact on corporate production decisions. The result shows that industry competition and emission reduction effects are affected by low-carbon classification standards and consumer low-carbon preferences, the changes in consumer low-carbon preferences is the key power to achieve emission reduction incentive. However, the direction and strength of the action of preferences are determined by the low-carbon classification standards of product. The classification standards can be divided into strict and loose; the strict standard will alleviate the problem of “pick-up” and have a two-way incentive. Moreover, the transformation of consumer low-carbon preferences into low-carbon behavior is significantly affected by the price system of products; the industry can achieve the goal of reducing average unit carbon emissions under the combined effect of these factors, but can’t reduce total emissions. At the same time, it revealed the inherent reasons for the increase in carbon emissions demand of low-emissions corporate and the shortcoming of traditional emission reduction mechanisms. A reference is provided for the development of China’s emission reduction policy, corporate production decision. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Product Innovation and Pricing Strategies in the Presence of Strategic Consumers LIU Jing-chen, ZHAI Xin 2023, 31 (4):  56-65.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0997 Abstract ( 506 )   PDF (1985KB) ( 480 )   Save In order to introduce new products to the market, firms can adopt either the incremental innovation strategy, where new products are introduced sequentially from low innovation level to high innovation level, or the radical innovation strategy, where high innovation products are introduced directly to the market with low innovation products being jumped. In this paper, the firm’s optimal product innovation and pricing strategy in the presence of strategic consumers are studied. Using game theory, the pricing and purchasing game between a monopoly firm and strategic consumers under both incremental innovation and radical innovation strategy is considered. Based on the rational expectation of strategic consumers, a two-period dynamic model is developed and the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium is solved. How the extent of the firm’s and the consumers’ strategic behavior would impact the optimal product innovation strategy is then studied. The main results are as follows. First, the optimal product innovation strategy critically depends on the degree of the innovation increment of the high innovation product, the cost difference between high and low innovation products, and the extent of the firm’s and the consumers’ strategic behavior. Second, with the consideration of strategic consumer behavior, the equilibrium radical innovation strategy can not only provide higher profits, but also generate larger market shares for the firm especially when the degree of the innovation increment of the high innovation product is large enough, and/or the cost difference between high and low innovation products is small enough. Third, the more strategic the consumers and/or the firm are, the more the firm can benefit from adopting radical innovation strategy relative to incremental innovation strategy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Decision and Contract Design Considering Demand Change and Service Impact on Product Quality REN Ting-hai, WANG Da-fei, YUAN Kai-fu, KOU Yan, ZHANG Xu-mei 2023, 31 (4):  66-78.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1179 Abstract ( 362 )   PDF (1164KB) ( 515 )   Save At present, many countries and regions in the world, such as China, are advancing the integrated development of the internet, big data, artificial intelligence, manufacturing, agriculture, and service industries, and simultaneously promoting the development of manufacturing, agriculture, service industries in the direction of digitalization, networking and intelligence. However, informatization construction is the foundation for enterprises to realize the development of industrial integration and the development of digitalization, networking and intelligence. In the process of informatization construction, software developers such as ERP vendors and APP venders need to cooperate to provide software products (such as ERP systems, CRM systems, etc.) and related services (such as consulting, demand analysis, installation and testing, maintenance, upgrades, etc.) to client enterprises. The present research investigated the supply chain decisions and contract design strategies under the constraint of exogenous factors in the tripartite interaction process, such as a customer enterprise's quality perception, delivery sensitivity and demand change, by establishing profit-based decision models of ERP manufacturers and APP developers from the perspective of game theory, and designing the cooperation contract based on fixed compensation, service commitment and time penalty. Results of the present research show that: Firstly, according to the requirements of customer enterprises on software quality, delivery time and the possible changes in the software development process, the software developer can choose four delivery strategies, including on-time delivery with demand quality, on-time delivery with high quality, early delivery with demand quality and early delivery with high quality. Secondly, the default risk borne by the ERP manufacturer is largely affected by the cost of software repair or maintenance. For example, when the repair or maintenance cost is less than a certain threshold, the risk increases as the cost goes up, whereas when the cost is greater than this threshold, the risk correlates negatively with the cost. Thirdly, under certain conditions, the customer's demands and requirements changes will not affect the software developer's product delivery decision. However, the emergency rush cost has a great impact on APP manufacturers' efforts and time delivery decisions in these conditions. When the emergency rush cost falls into three different ranges, the APP manufacturer has three contract design strategies accordingly, namely increased effort investment with extended delivery time, increased effort investment with shortened delivery time, and reduced effort investment with shortened delivery time. Lastly, in addition to cooperation contracts based on fixed compensation, service commitment and time penalty, the ERP manufacturer can also provide cooperation contracts based on fixed compensation, service commitment and delivery time, and the cooperation performance generated by the two contracts is equal. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Integrated Buffer Monitoring and Control Based on Activity Criticality ZHANG Jun-guang, WAN Dan 2023, 31 (4):  79-88.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0718 Abstract ( 322 )   PDF (2216KB) ( 928 )   Save Project delay and cost overrun have been common in all industries nowadays. In order to solve these problems, an effective method—critical chain project management (CCPM) is proposed based on the theory of constraints. It is well known that managers will add a large amount of safety time to the project plan. However, this safety time will be consumed during the implementation of the project owing to various factors, such as the student syndrome, which contribute to the project being delayed and increase project costs. CCPM accordingly adopts the concept of buffer to absorb the uncertainties. As one of the core aspects of buffer management, buffer monitoring plays an important role in ensuring the on-time delivery and providing the project with sufficient protection. Although CCPM has improved the efficiency of project management, project duration delay and cost waste still exist due to the unreasonable buffer monitoring procedure. To deal with the problem that the monitoring focus of existing methods is not prominent and the decision information is not comprehensive in the process of buffer monitoring, an integrated buffer monitoring method based on the important characteristics of the activity is proposed in this paper. First, the new method introduces the activity importance information in the project schedule risk analysis method as a basis for identifying those critical activities that needs more attention and stronger actions. The activity importance of the project is measured by comprehensively considering the variability of the activity's duration, the impact of the activity's duration on the completion of the project, and the network location of the activity. And the judgment threshold of the importance index is dynamically set according to the fluctuation degree of the activity duration. Then, the subsequent trend of buffer consumption was forecasted quantitatively based on gray neural network. Considering the project buffer consumption and project follow-up information comprehensively, the degree of deviation of the buffer consumption state is described by the membership function, corrective actions are differentiated for the activity according to the buffer deviation degree. Meanwhile, the buffer monitoring areas and the action threshold of buffer consumption are set during the dynamic project execution. Finally, the computational experiment based on YS company’s smart party building software development project is carried out to validate our model. The results show that the proposed method can control the progress of the project comprehensively and systematically compared with the traditional monitoring methods. It has better performance in indicators such as monitoring the regional frequency distribution, buffer consumption rate, actual project duration and cost performance, thus realizes the dynamic feedback between project planning and schedule adjustment and improves the efficiency of buffer management. Our research will help scholars better to understand the essence of activity criticality and subsequent trend information in buffer monitoring process, and provide guiding strategies for enterprises to improve the performance of project schedule management and ensure the on-time delivery of projects. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Triple Competition in the Green Supply Chain on the Issuance of Substitutable Products HAN Meng-yuan, FENG Liang-qing, ZHANG Lei 2023, 31 (4):  89-100.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0794 Abstract ( 347 )   PDF (4063KB) ( 569 )   Save With the rapid development of green economy, more and more supply chain companies have begun to expand their original production lines to develop more environmentally friendly substitutable products. In the supply chain, price, low-carbon quality level, and service effort of products are the key factors that affect consumers' purchasing decision, as well as the key factors that affect corporate profits. Recently, there are many literatures which focus on competition in the green supply chain. However, the influence of the triple competitive factors (quality, price and service) for substitutable products in a green supply chain has not yet been investigated in the literature. In fact, the relevant decisions of traditional products will affect the company's decisions on substitutable products. Therefore, the impact of the triple competitive factors (quality, price and service) among substitutable products on green supply chain decisions is investigated, and the optimal retail price, quality and service of newly launched green products are determined in different scenarios. Based on game theory, a quality-pricing-service decision model with manufacturers and retailers is built to maximize profits. The reverse induction method is used to solve the game equilibrium problem of the green supply chain in three modes: (1) centralized decision-making scenario; (2) Nash game decision-making scenario; (3) Manufacturer-led Stackelberg game decision-making scenario. Through theoretical analysis and numerical experiment comparison, the influence of the degree of triple competition on the balance decision of supply chain system is analyzed. It is found that in the case of substitutable products, the more intense the competition for product quality and service, the lower the equilibrium price. Increased price competition does not always improve the quality of green products, but it can improve service levels. And from the simulation results, it can be seen that the supply chain profit under the influence of multiple factors is more complicated than that of a single factor. These conclusions expand the scope of application of the conclusions that “the degree of competition of non-price factors affects product prices” and “the degree of competition of prices affects decision-making on non-price factors”, and at the same time provide a basis for supply chain members to make decisions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Dynamic Decision Model of Service Quality Level in Product Aftermarket XIA Yu, XIE Jia-ping, ZHU Wei-jun 2023, 31 (4):  101-110.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1038 Abstract ( 304 )   PDF (1304KB) ( 413 )   Save The actual service levels provided by firms in the product aftermarket may be different from what were promised, which affects customer satisfaction and realized demand in both product primary market and service aftermarket. Therefore, it is worth studying the service level decisions dynamically during the whole product life cycle. In this paper, service level dynamic models are developed to investigate the firm’s service level decisions during the whole product life cycle. Firms usually promise a service level before product release, but could shift to a different one in product life cycles. The difference between the actual service level and the promised service level affects customer satisfaction and realized demand. The problem when the marginal cost of service correlates and does not correlate to service level, respectively is investigated. When the marginal cost of service does not correlate to service level, the optimal strategy of the firm is solved and analyzed by Pontryagin Maximum Principle; when the marginal cost of service correlates to service level, a numerical study is performed and the properties of the optimal strategy is discussed. Our results show that when firms make decisions of the actual service level provided during the product life cycle, they will not consider their promises made in the past. With the time passes, the actually provided service level decreases and drops to the lowest level when the product life cycle ends. The optimal strategy of the initial service level promise is a threshold policy. Firms will offer the highest service level promises only if the product life cycles are short enough. On this basis, however, firms may actually provide a low service level during the product life cycle. Our work helps practitioners in making decisions on both the initially promised and the actually provided service levels during the whole product life cycle. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Default Prediction Based on Sentiment Data DONG Bing-jie, CHI Guo-tai 2023, 31 (4):  111-120.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1344 Abstract ( 329 )   PDF (974KB) ( 441 )   Save The application of text data in the financial field has always been a hot research topic.The problem studied in this paper is how to use emotion data to build a default prediction model to improve the ability of financial institutions to identify default customers. The characteristics of this article: (1) to measure the emotional characteristics of the loan description by 21 emotions.This method present the multi-dimensional emotional characteristics implied in the loan description; (2) to use emotional data and numerical data to construct the optimal critical point default discrimination model, which avoids the shortcomings of using single type data to construct default discrimination model.The research shows that: in the comparative analysis, the use of sentiment data and digital data in this paper to construct the optimal critical point hybrid model has the highest accuracy of default prediction, of which the second type of error drops significantly; regression analysis shows that in the positive direction in the emotion, the customers who convey the “believe” and “praise” emotions in the loan description are more than the customers who convey “wish”, “love”, “happiness”, “respect”, “relief” and other emotions are less likely to default; negative emotions have a weaker ability to identify defaults; “derogatory” emotions have a significant positive correlation with defaults; “sadness” emotions have a significant negative correlation with defaults; After the customer’s economic characteristics, the above relationship is still established, and the results are solid. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Co-op Advertising in Competing Supply Chains under Different Power Structures LI Tao, LIU Bin 2023, 31 (4):  121-129.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0562 Abstract ( 354 )   PDF (2462KB) ( 398 )   Save Since the confliction in cooperative (co-op) advertising fails to be coordinated by the popular unilateral participation strategy, three game structures, such as Manufacturer Stackelberg (MS), Retailer Stackelberg(RS)and Vertical Nash (VN), are first developed to investigates the impact of endogenous and exogenous cost-sharing rates on co-op advertising coordination. The result shows that the exogenous cost-sharing rate is capable of coordinating the entire supply chain when the competition is not fierce, while the endogenous cost-sharing rate doesn’t work well. Then, the egalitarian bargaining model is developed to examine the influence of endogenous cost sharing rate on co-op advertising coordination under different game structures. The result indicates that the endogenous cost-sharing rate can coordinate the entire supply chain under VN game. These results can provide manufacturers and retailers with decision support in terms with co-op advertising coordination. Specifically, managers who make advertising decisions should take into account both the cost sharing rate and the channel competition. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Strategies Choice of Participating in CYKS Platform YAN Meng-ying, AI Shi-zhong, DU Rong 2023, 31 (4):  130-141.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1289 Abstract ( 276 )   PDF (1207KB) ( 723 )   Save As the rapid development of social commerce, the online social platform-based CKYS has emerged, which uses the WeChat social network for information dissemination and product sales. The purpose of this paper is to study the strategy choices of whether retailers should join CKYS. By establishing a demand function and then a profit function model, the profitability of WeChat social networks of retailers is measured using both consumer net utility and social influence. The two independent variables in the demand function are the probability of that consumer net utility is non-negative and social influence. In the consumer net utility, the impact of reference price and unfit on utility are considered. Social influence measured by interaction rate and embeddedness is computed as a logistic model to express the probability that a retailer can make potential customers in the WeChat buy products under the conditions of certain interaction rate and embeddedness. Through the mathematical simulation of the profit function, some joining strategies can be proposed to help retailers to make joining decisions. The results of the study show that: When other variables take different values, there are two kinds of relations between average interaction rate and profit: 1) When the time cost of retailers is less than the profit threshold, the profit decreases first, then increases, and finally decreases as the average interaction rate increases. At this time, retailers can join the platform and should improve the average interaction rate. When the average interaction rate reaches the maximum value point of profit function, retailers should not increase the average interaction rate. 2) When the time cost of retailers is greater than or equal to the profit threshold, the profit decreases as the average interaction rate increases. At this time, the retailers should not join the platform. At the same time, the retailers can also make the decision whether to join CKYS according to the length of the time required to recover the initial registration cost. The results of the study can not only provide some strategies for retailers who intend to join CKYS, but also provide reference for follow-up research about social commerce. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Online Strategy and Competitive Analysis of Production Order Scheduling Problem with Rental Cost of Shared Machines XU Yin-feng, ZHI Rong-teng, ZHENG Fei-feng, LIU Ming 2023, 31 (4):  142-150.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1663 Abstract ( 411 )   PDF (1007KB) ( 389 )   Save In sharing economics era, it arises a new manufacturing mode where one manufacturer may temporarily rent social processing resources or machines, if necessary, to complete its customer orders and pay a reasonable rental fee. This work investigates an online scheduling problem where one manufacturer owning two parallel identical machines may lease a number of external machines to satisfy its jobs via a manufacturing resource sharing platform. The objective is to minimize the sum of the total completion time of jobs and the total leasing cost of sharing machines, where the rental cost consists of fixed cost and variable cost. The online over-list model is focused on such that jobs with unit processing times are released one by one, and each job has to be assigned on its arrival to one of the currently rented machines for processing without the knowledge of any future jobs. Moreover, the decision on leasing one more external machine may be made concurrently by the manufacturer. Several fundamental properties are presented for an offline optimal solution, and a lower bound 1+6a－312a－3+118a+(6b+3)12a－3+6b2+6b－1 of competitive ratio is proved, where a and b (0≤b<a) are the coefficients of fixed and respectively variable costs, and both are assumed to be integers. The lower bound approaches 4/3, provided that a approaches infinity and the ratio of b to a approaches zero. Secondly, an online algorithm named TS is proposed, which assigns arrival jobs almost evenly between the manufacturer’s own machines or between the rented external machines. The difference between the upper bounds of the number of jobs assigned to the above two types of machines is equal to either b or b+1. It is proved that TS is of a competitive ratio of 4/3 for a=2 and 1.89 for a≥3, respectively. The results indicate that when the manufacturer has to make decisions on the processing schedule of jobs and the time points for machine leasing in the online mode, the total cost spent is less than twice of the optimal one. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Freight Revenue Robust Optimization for Container Liner Shipping Considering Vessel Sailing Speed Deviation LI De-chang, YANG Hua-long, SONG Wei, ZHENG Jian-feng 2023, 31 (4):  151-160.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1298 Abstract ( 287 )   PDF (1104KB) ( 646 )   Save Container liner shipping is an important backbone for international trade marine transportation of industry products and general consumer goods. It has the characteristics of numerous and scattered customers, many kinds of high value goods with frequent transportation and strong timeliness. In order to meet customers' transportation service requirements, shipping companies need to provide round-trip liner shipping services. They usually employ a certain number of containerships on the designed shipping route to visit each port of call punctually on a weekly basis. Due to the susceptibility to various uncertain factors such as bad weather, bad sea conditions and harsh route environment, the actual sailing speed of the containership in each leg often deviates from the planned one. This will not only change the fuel consumption of the containership in each leg, but also affect the voyage fuel cost and freight revenue. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the revenue optimization of container liner shipping considering the sailing speed deviation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Electric Vehicle Charging Optimization Considering Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation CHEN Hao-ran, ZHAO Xiao-li 2023, 31 (4):  161-170.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2127 Abstract ( 483 )   PDF (3688KB) ( 593 )   Save Promoting the development of renewable energy is an important way to mitigate climate change. However, the output of renewable energy is fluctuating. When renewable energy grows in a large amount, it will bring challenges to the operation of the power grid. At the same time, with the rapid development of electric vehicles, it will also bring risks when a large number of electric vehicles are connected to the grid. Therefore, the charging strategy can be used to schedule the charging behavior of electric vehicles to promote the consumption of renewable energy. How to optimize the charging behavior of electric vehicles, smooth the grid load and promote the consumption of distributed photovoltaics is studied. The Monte Carlo simulation method and the travel characteristic data of private cars, taxis and buses are used in this research to analyze the electric vehicle charging strategy in Beijing. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Central Environmental Protection Inspector and Air Pollution Governance：Evolutionary Game Analysis Based on Vertical Governments and Polluting Enterprises ZHANG Ming, SUN Xin-ran, SONG Yan 2023, 31 (4):  171-182.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2621 Abstract ( 439 )   PDF (2066KB) ( 471 )   Save The central environmental protection inspector embodies the system optimization and tools innovation of China’s vertical environmental governance. Based on the evolutionary game model of vertical governments and pollution enterprises, the key factors influencing the strategy selection of each subject is analyzed, and with the help of system simulation, the influence of main parameters on the system stability and convergence trend is depicted, and the effect of central environmental protection inspector on air pollution governance is studied. The main results show that: (1) At present, the central environmental protection inspector can effectively motivate polluting enterprises to carry out rectification, but the incentive effect on the local governments' regulatory strategies need to be further improved;local governments tend to opt for non-regulatory strategies by shifting responsibility to polluters.(2) The cost of inspector will have an impact on the effectiveness of the central environmental protection inspector system. If the cost of inspector is too high, it is easy for local governments and polluting enterprises to choose non-regulatory strategies and non-rectification strategies for air pollution control. (3) Compared with the evaluation index of atmospheric environment quality and environmental taxes and fees, improving the punishment of non-regulatory strategies can more effectively achieve the combination of local governments’ regulatory strategies and the polluting enterprises’ rectification strategies. Further, policy recommendations are put forward from the aspects of promoting the normalization of the inspector system, exploring objective and effective environmental policy tools, and building a collaborative environmental supervision system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Peer-Induced Unfairness and BBP Strategy in Hybrid E-Commerce Platform ZHANG Kai 2023, 31 (4):  183-193.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0586 Abstract ( 408 )   PDF (1895KB) ( 411 )   Save ‘Setting higher price to their past consumers’ is a quite common pricing strategy in e-commerce platforms, and also is one of disputed marketing strategies recently. Compared with the traditional duopoly competition, third-party sellers need to pay the e-commerce platform a fraction of their revenues as fee for accessing his customers, expect for directly competing with the platform’s self-operated business. Two phenomena about behavior-based pricing (BBP) are observed in hybird e-commerce platforms. The first is some BBP were implemented by e-commerce platforms, and the others by third-party sellers. The second is consumers have different reactions to BBP. Some like it, some don’t. The effect of peer-induced unfairness and fairness on BBP in an extremely simple vertical differential hybird e-commerce platform model with only one third-party seller is studied, and the difference of who implementing BBP is investigated, and the choice of optimal pricing policy, BBP or uniform pricing (UP) is also analyzed. It is found that “setting higher price to their past consumers” is always true in hybrid e-commerce platform, no matter who implements BBP. The seller who implements BBP not only keeps all of his past consumers, but also attracts some new consumers from his competitor. (UP, UP) is a Nash equilibrium. Compared with the platform implementing BBP, the third-party seller implementing BBP can enhance competition, drive more consumers switching in period 2, improve consumer surplus, and increase social welfare. Both peer-induced unfairness and fairness increase positive effects of BBP, and decrease its negative effects. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Pricing of Service System with Providing Experiential Service under Customer Loss Aversion JIANG Tao, RAO Wei-zhen, LIU Lu 2023, 31 (4):  194-204.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1118 Abstract ( 268 )   PDF (1356KB) ( 542 )   Save Reasonable service mechanism design and service pricing strategy are important regulation mechanisms to ensure the efficient operation of service enterprises. Due to the heterogeneity of customers' access to service-related information, in some service enterprises, the service providers usually adopt the classification service model, and experience service is provided for potential customers to learn about the quality of service. After trying out the experience service, they can use the newly acquired information to decide whether or not to join the queue for the regular service. Based on the service strategy, the service providers could expand the market demand and increase the revenue by attracting potential customers to purchase regular service. However, due to the limitation of service resources, the customers who cannot receive the service immediately will wait in the line, which could also lead to the loss of customers. Therefore, how to reasonably set the service strategy is the key to guarantee the service revenue of the service providers. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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High-Quality Service Capacity Reallocation Decision and Profit-Sharing Coordination Scheme Design in the Hierarchical Healthcare Systems LI Zhong-ping, WANG Jian-jun 2023, 31 (4):  205-217.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1356 Abstract ( 378 )   PDF (3064KB) ( 462 )   Save The mismatch between the supply of and demand for care services has recently increased pressures on Chinese healthcare systems, fueled by aging populations and scarce high-quality medical resources which is especially concentrated in some 3A hospitals. Our central government has repeatedly emphasized the significance of reallocating high-quality service capacity to some community hospitals to promote the effectiveness and efficiency of the overall healthcare services. However, the problem of interest conflicts between different levels of hospitals pertaining to implementing the high-quality service capacity reallocation program in the hierarchic healthcare systems has not been formally analyzed and addressed. In this paper, three profit-sharing schemes including a Profit-Sharing-for-Capacity (PSC) scheme, Performance Profit-Sharing (PPS) scheme, and Hybrid Profit-Sharing (HPS) scheme are designed, as well as their operating performance for better coordinating the service capacity reallocation is evaluated. By developing a game-theoretic framework with a queueing model, the interactions among the patients, the 3A hospital, and the community hospital are captured. First, all three participants’ equilibrium decisions (patient visit rates, 3A hospital’s service capacity reallocating rate, and community hospital’s profit-reallocation price) and equilibrium outcomes (care accessibility, operating profits, and social welfare) associated with the PSC and PPS schemes are analyzed. Second, the optimum results of the overall centralized healthcare system as compared with those under the two profit-sharing schemes are examined. Finally, the operating performances of the HPS scheme which is a combination of PSC and PPS schemes are investigated. Our findings of studies indicate that when the total high-quality service capacity is sufficiently low, three profit-sharing schemes are equally efficient in accelerating implementing the capacity-reallocation program and improving both care accessibility and social welfare. When the total service capacity is medium, the HPS scheme is always more efficient than the PPS scheme, but only for a relatively low weight parameter of performance sharing in the hybrid scheme, the equilibrium outcomes of the hybrid profit-sharing scheme are closer to the benchmark case associated with the centralized system than those of the PSC scheme. However, when the total service capacity is high enough, the sinking capacity is not beneficial for the overall system and thus reduces social welfare. Through numerical illustration, the operating performances of the three profit-sharing schemes at different levels of high-quality medical resources and the weight parameter of operating profits are further assessed. These useful managerial insights can be readily leveraged by healthcare service providers and regulators to create appropriate policies that are effectively implemented in a high-quality capacity-reallocation program in the hierarchical healthcare delivery system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Action Logic and Adjustment Strategy of the Participants in the Community Medical and Nursing Service YANG Zhe, CHEN Si-si, CHEN Yong-yan 2023, 31 (4):  218-227.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0258 Abstract ( 321 )   PDF (1130KB) ( 786 )   Save Under the background of an aging population, the elderly have overlapping demands for community medical services and old-age care services, but there is an imbalance of interests on the supply-demand side, resulting in insufficient effective supply of community medical and old-age care services. In order to relieve the pressure of pension for aging, based on stakeholder theory, in the construction of local government - community - a combined with institutions based on static game, the three of the elderly into the structure of dynamic supervision game model, clarify the relationship between the three interests and behavior, and evolutionary game model is analyzed using lyapunov criterion asymptotic stability of the equilibrium. The research shows that the introduction of dynamic supervision can better restrain the behavioral strategy fluctuation of stakeholders and make the compliance operation of community medical and nursing institutions the optimal choice. At the same time, local governments provide appropriate financial subsidies to community medical and nursing institutions and community elderly groups, so as to ensure fair and reasonable distribution of benefits among various subjects. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Information Cooperation Mechanism of Cross Border E-commerce Logistics Alliance Based on Tripartite Evolutionary Game DU Zhi-ping, OU Yu-xian 2023, 31 (4):  228-238.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0416 Abstract ( 425 )   PDF (3567KB) ( 584 )   Save Through the actual investigation, it is found that the cross-border e-commerce logistics alliance has the following problems in the operation: First, the language of China’s information system is mainly Chinese, and it is inconsistent with the conversion format, data table processing, concept and other standards of foreign information systems. Second, due to cross-border and cross-regional restrictions, it is difficult to integrate information resources between alliance enterprises, which led to the phenomenon of “information islands”, and it is difficult to track international logistics information in real time. A cross-border e-commerce logistics alliance model is proposed based on information collaboration to promote the effective integration of cross-border information systems, the seamless connection of cross-border electronic documents, and the real-time transmission and sharing of cross-border information. Then the evolutionary game theory is used to analyze the dynamic game process between cross-border e-commerce platforms, domestic logistics company and foreign logistics company, and a tripartite evolutionary game model based on information collaboration is constructed. Based on the investigation of enterprises and experts, system dynamic is used to simulate and analyze the dynamic game process of the three-party information coordination selection. The results show that: (1)Only when the information collaboration standardization level is higher than 0.47, can we promote cross-border logistics alliance members to choose information collaboration strategies. (2) Compared with other factors, the three parties of the alliance are the most sensitive to the impact of information collaboration risk, and the convergence speed of strategy selection is the fastest. (3) Equalized income distribution can further promote the choice of alliance members’ information coordination strategies. If the income distribution coefficient of the cross-border e-commerce platform is higher than 0.7, information coordination will be difficult to implement. (4) Compared with other alliance members, domestic logistics companies are more sensitive to the four influencing factors of information synergy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Integrated Production and Transportation Scheduling Problem Based on 3D Printing Technology HE Pei-yang, LI Kun-peng, TIAN Qian-nan 2023, 31 (4):  239-249.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0780 Abstract ( 391 )   PDF (1064KB) ( 1110 )   Save Intelligent manufacturing technology based on 3D printing has become an important means to promote the transformation and upgrading of spare parts supply chain. In this context, the supply chain coordination problem of scheduled maintenance spare parts is studied under the new mode of “make to order+delivery just in time”. The integrated production and transportation scheduling problem is NP-Hard in manufacturing industry. In this paper, the integrated production and transportation scheduling problem with time windows is studied, the integer programming model is established, the master problem and sub-problem are formulated respectively according to the Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition principle, and an improved branch-and-price algorithm is proposed. In the process of solving the problem, the feasible solution is firstly constructed and the CPLEX optimization software is used to solve the master problem. Secondly, the dominant rules and the acceleration strategies are designed to solve the sub-problem according to the characteristic of the problem, and the non-integer solutions are branched. Finally, the numerical experiment results show that the accuracy of the established model and the improved algorithm are verified. The comparison of CPU time shows that the acceleration strategy can improve the efficiency of the algorithm by about 10 times. By comparing the collaborative decisions between production and transportation with the decisions in actual operation, the scheme designed in this paper can optimize the objective function value by 50.33% on average. This study can not only effectively solve the integrated production and transportation scheduling problem under the new spare parts production mode, but also provide scientific basis for the actual operation decision of enterprises, and realize how to decrease cost and increase efficiency. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Considering Shape—Position Probabilistic Linguistic Term Similarity and Its Application ZHU Feng, LIU Yu-min, XU Ji-chao, SU Bing-jie 2023, 31 (4):  250-259.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0614 Abstract ( 257 )   PDF (1092KB) ( 669 )   Save In order to effectively measure the similarity between different probabilistic linguistic term elements，a similarity of probabilistic linguistic term elements considering the shape and position of data is proposed. Firstly，by comparing the shapes of the scatter plots of different probabilistic linguistic term elements，the probabilistic linguistic term shape similarity is proposed. Secondly，based on the earth mover’s distance(EMD) and the completeness of the information，the distance similarity of the probabilistic linguistic term element is defined. Then，in order to measure the overall similarity of different probabilistic linguistic terms，a comprehensive similarity measure of probabilistic linguistic term element considering shape-position is proposed. Finally，a multi-attribute decision-making model is established based on improved radar graph，comprehensive similarity measure of probabilistic linguistic term element and max-min operator，and the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method are illustrated by examples. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Bilayer-Coupled Network Evolution Model of Counterparty Credit Risk Contagion in the CRT Market CHEN Ting-qiang, WANG Jie-peng, YANG Xiao-guang 2023, 31 (4):  260-274.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0794 Abstract ( 332 )   PDF (1877KB) ( 460 )   Save Credit derivatives play dual functions of investment trading and risk management. Their investment trading behavior is bound to bring credit risk contagion in the credit risk transfer (CRT) market. Existing studies are mostly limited to single-layer financial networks, and most of them ignore the heterogeneity of economic actors. In view of this, the latent default status of counterparties in the CRT market and counterparty heterogeneity are considered, a SCIRS model of counterparty credit risk contagion in the single-layer network is constructed, and the effect and influence mechanism of different mechanism probabilities and counterparty heterogeneity on the contagion effect of counterparty credit risk in CRT market are explored. Secondly, based on the SCIRS model of single-layer network counterparty credit risk contagion, further considering the heterogeneity of inter-layer and intra-layer contagion, the SCI1I2RS model of double-layer coupled network counterparty credit risk contagion is constructed. The influence mechanism of different network structures (single-layer network and two-layer coupled network) on counterparty credit risk contagion in the CRT market is compared and analyzed. On this basis, the evolution characteristics of counterparty credit risk contagion in the CRT market under different connection modes and different mechanism probabilities are compared and analyzed. The following main conclusions are obtained using computational experiments and simulation to analyze the evolution characteristics of counterparty credit risk contagion in the CRT market. First, in the single-layer network model, the mechanism probability exhibits a “global effect.” Second, the counterparty heterogeneities of counterparty credit risk contagion have a “global enhancement” effect in the CRT market. That is, the counterparty credit risk preference increases, the counterparty credit risk cognitive level reduces, the information disclosure coefficient decreases, the counterparty leverage increases, the counterparty risk overflow capacity decreases, and the counterparty influence increases. Third, the scale of default counterparty of bilayer-coupled networks is significantly larger than that of single-layer networks when the networks are stable. Moreover, in the process of contagion, the counterparty credit risk contagion of single-layer networks in the CRT market reaches the steady state of the networks more quickly than that of bilayer-coupled networks. Fourth, in the three interlayer connection modes of counterparty credit risk contagion under bilayer-coupled networks, the assortative link exhibits the “global enhancement” effect, while the disassortative link has “global suppression” effect. Fifth, in the bilayer-coupled network model, the intralayer and interlayer contagion probabilities promote the transformation of the latent default counterparty to the default counterparty, which enhances the credit risk contagion globally. The intralayer and interlayer immunity probabilities promote the conversion of default counterparties to other counterparties, which inhibits the credit risk contagion globally. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Effect of Customer Loyalty on Signaling Cost Information ZHOU Jian-heng, LI Ying-xiao 2023, 31 (4):  275-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1370 Abstract ( 329 )   PDF (1290KB) ( 707 )   Save The interaction between a firm and consumers is studied that is consisted with some loyal customers who are not sensitive to the firm’s cost types and some general customers are the opposite. The firm can be either high cost type or low, however, the consumers cannot observe the firm’s exact type, which is private information. The high type firm can signal its type through pricing and quality strategy. It is found that under the symmetric information, increasing proportion of loyal customers makes both type firms better off; under the asymmetric information, the low cost type firm can still benefit from an increasing proportion of loyal customers,whereas, the high cost type firm may be worse off. In addition, the high cost type firm will be more intend to separating rather than pooling with the increasing proportion of loyal customers. Finally, when the proportion of loyal customers is higher than a threshold, the positive effect of price distortion is greater than the negative effects of loyal customers. References | Related Articles | Metrics