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28 December 2005, Volume 13 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Empirical Tests on Efficiency of Commodity Futures Markets in China ZHANG Xiao-yan, ZHANG Zong-cheng 2005, (6):  1-5.  Abstract ( 2455 )   PDF (1577KB) ( 2983 )   Save In this paper,we take the prices of some selected commodity futures as the object of study.Since presence of a unit root is not a sufficient condition for a random walk we need to test for the presence of autocorrelation in residual.At the same time,VR test and MVR test provide another procedure to test the random walk hypothesis,which infers to the weak-form efficency of five future markets.The conclusions tell us we cannot reject weak-form efficiency market hypotesis in those five future markets. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Noise Composition Test of Stock Prices with NCT: Evidence from Seven Asian Stock Markets KONG Dong-min 2005, (6):  6-10.  Abstract ( 2013 )   PDF (2183KB) ( 2070 )   Save Based on the variance-ratio test of Lo and Mackinlay(1988,1989),I construct a noise composition test(NCT) index in this paper and give an empirical test to seven Asian stock markets.I find the the markets of mainland of China and Thailand have more noise composition and are more inefficient.Meanwhile,the markets of Hong Kong,Taiwan,and Japan have a smaller noise composition and I cannot reject the zero hypothesis of price which is following a random walk.At last,I use the Bootstrap sample to re-estimate the previous results and find it is robust. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Influence Factors of Economic Value Added of China’s Listed Companies CHEN Lin, WANG Ping-xin 2005, (6):  11-17.  Abstract ( 1973 )   PDF (2314KB) ( 2009 )   Save This paper empirically analyzed the influence factors of economic value added of China’s listed companies.Factor analysis and multivariate linear regression model were used here.It drew the conclusion that the company’s capital structure,profit ability,size,growth ability,management ability,and industry’s return on equity had positive influence on EVA.The intangible asset had poor negative relationship with EVA.And the inventory management level had no influence on EVA.The possible reasons were discussed later and some advice was given in order to increase the company’s economic value. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Choice of Different Take-Back Models in Reverse Logistics with the Restriction of EPR WEI Jie, LI Jun 2005, (6):  18-22.  Abstract ( 2625 )   PDF (1733KB) ( 2578 )   Save With the opposed system of Extended Producer Responsibility(EPR),it has brought great changes in product take-back models.In the restriction of EPR,the paper puts forward three key models:Manufacturer take-back(MT),Polled take-back(PT) and Third party take-back(TPT).On the base of models designed,the paper analyses the two parameters p* and ∏M* depending on the mathematics models.This has great help to choose appropriate take-back models to producer. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Optimization of Supply Chain Stock-Out Times and Reorder Frequency under Time-Varying Demand LIU Jian 2005, (6):  23-28.  Abstract ( 2214 )   PDF (1084KB) ( 1652 )   Save Based on games model,this paper studies Nash equilibrium problem of supplier and buyer’s stock-out times and reorder frequency under time-varying demand and no alternative source.Relation between supplier and buyer is analyzed based on numerical examples.Main conclusions are:the larger distributor’s reorder frequency is,the smaller retailer’s inventory cost is;retailer and distributor’s inventory cost distinctly decreases by reorder frequency optimization. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Revenue Sharing Contract of Supply Chain with Price-Sensitive End-Consumer Demand WANG Yong, PEI Yong 2005, (6):  29-33.  Abstract ( 2109 )   PDF (1789KB) ( 2327 )   Save Revenue sharing contract is an important tool to achieve supply chain coordination.In this paper,a model of revenue sharing contract is built which considered the end-consumer demand with price sensitivity.A newsvendor model with an endogenous retail price is used to analyze respectively the behavior of supplier and retailer who are constrained by the revenue sharing contract,that is to say,the calculation formula of retailer’s optimal behavior and the range of contract parameter Φ are achieved in this paper.In the end,a numerical example is given to verify that revenue sharing contract can coordinate the supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Mobility and Evaluation for the Product of Manufacturing Industry CHENG You-ming, GONG Ben-gang 2005, (6):  34-38.  Abstract ( 2096 )   PDF (828KB) ( 1584 )   Save The agile of the manufacture depends largely on the mobility of the product provided.In this paper,we put forward the TCRP model of the evaluation for the mobility of the product of manufacturing enterprise,the index system and the computing method of the evaluation to find a correct way of improving the mobility of the product and the agile of the enterprise,which are based on the definition of the connotation of the mobility of the product and the influence factors of the manufacture. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Buy Back Contract under Incomplete Retailer’s Cost Information ZHANG Ju-liang, CHEN Jian 2005, (6):  39-45.  Abstract ( 1849 )   PDF (1755KB) ( 1528 )   Save The buy back contract is a popular contract.Most of the literatures on it assumed that the cost structures of both the supplier and the retailer are common knowledge so far.In this paper,we study the buy back contract under incomplete information.In our model,supplier proposes contract.He does not know the retailer’s cost structure.We investigate the impact of buy back contract on the supplier,the retailer and the supply chain as a whole. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study about Value Chain Management Model of Quasi-Production Function DONG Huan-zhong, FANG Shu-fen 2005, (6):  46-51.  Abstract ( 2185 )   PDF (1387KB) ( 1935 )   Save Going from some essential property of value chain,this paper uses the principle and form of production function for reference,then puts forward a new value chain management model:value chain management of quasi-production function,and proves some important properties and discusses the optimization process of enterprise value chain with the model.A numerical example is provided to illustrate the application of this model,the process and results of analysis show that this model can realize preferably optimization and management of value chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Income Model and Risk Analysis of of Non-Similar Enterprise’s Competition and Co-operation Strategy LI Sen, YANG Xi-huai 2005, (6):  52-56.  Abstract ( 2236 )   PDF (929KB) ( 2234 )   Save With the comparison between models of similar enterprises set up respectively under competition strategy and co-operation strategy,the informational function of price has been discussed,and the reasons why co-operation strategy contributes to big income and low probability of risk have been explored.Starting with the utilization of modern decision-making theory,the relationship between the maximum profit and conditions of the enterprise has been analyzed,and the concept of reasonable maximum profit in conformity with variable cost per unit and output capacity conditions has been put forward.Moreover,"to pursue reasonable maximum profit in conformity with enterprise conditions"as a new notion,has been attached to "assumption of rational enterprise".Accordingly,an output distribution function of dissimilar enterprises has been designed,a more adaptable maximum profit model of dissimilar enterprises under co-operation strategy has been set up,and the optimum enterprise response to the fluctuation of market prices has been suggested.Finally,a calculated case is put forward to illustrate the advantages of co-operation strategy directly. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Branching Ant Colony with Dynamic Perturbation Algorithm for Solving TSPs LIU Xin-bao, YE Qiang, LIU Lin, YANG Shan-lin 2005, (6):  57-63.  Abstract ( 2240 )   PDF (2195KB) ( 2115 )   Save Ant Colony Optimization(ACO)algorithm is a kind of meta-heuristic algorithm for solving NP-hard problems.Using positive feedback and parallel-computing principle,it has strong capability to explore solution.Recently,ACO algorithm is widely used to study TSP problems.This paper proposes Branching Ant Colony with Dynamic Perturbation(DPBAC)algorithm,which improves traditional ACO algorithm in 5 aspects:introducing Branching Method to choose starting points,improving state transition rules,introducing Mutation Method to shorten tours,improving pheromone updating rules and introducing Conditional Dynamic Perturbation Method.Showed by simulated experiments,DPBAC algorithm can improve the shortcomings,as costing too much time and tending to stick in local minimum and so on,of traditional ACO algorithm. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Loss Averse Newsboy —— The Solution of Newsboy Problem under Prospect Theory WEN Ping 2005, (6):  64-68.  Abstract ( 2351 )   PDF (1278KB) ( 2806 )   Save Under the new decision making theory-prospect theory,this paper dicusses the newsboy problem and gives the solution of newsboy problem for loss aversion newsboy.Finally,comparative static effects of changes in the various price and cost are determined and related to the newsboy’s loss aversion. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A New DEA Model Based on Two Objective Programming MA Li-jie, CUI Yu-quan, LI Zhen-bo 2005, (6):  69-74.  Abstract ( 2053 )   PDF (2260KB) ( 1961 )   Save In the analysis of economic system,we always want to obtain the most production of output for the least input consumption because of the limited resources.In this paper we proposed a new DEA model based on two objective programming in input-output oriented way,this DEA model is capable of maximizing the efficiency of individual units at the same time that total input on consumption is minimized and total output production is maximized.At last we give a new method for solving the model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Forecasting Model Using a Hybrid GMDH and Improved Arithmetic of Neural Network Based on Genetic Algorithm ZOU Hao-fei, XIA Guo-ping, YANG Fang-ting 2005, (6):  75-80.  Abstract ( 1929 )   PDF (1350KB) ( 1967 )   Save Based on traditional artificial neural network using Genetic Algorithm(GA),this paper introduces a further improved method applying two independent training sets to train the network in order to optimize the neural network structure.Aiming at the characteristics of neural network structure,a model using a hybrid GMDH and artificial neural network is established.It can make the selection of input-lay units easily and improve the ability of rate of studying and the adaptability of neural network.Finally a case implementing this model in analyzing and predicting the grain production of China is presented,and the result indicates that the combined model is an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Strategy Dominance and Pure Strategies Solution of Grey Matrix Game Based on Interval Grey Number Not to Be Determined Directly MI Chuan-min, FANG Zhi-geng 2005, (6):  81-85.  Abstract ( 2490 )   PDF (1766KB) ( 1758 )   Save It is a key step in solving pure strategies of the grey matrix game G(⊗)=｛S1,S2,A(⊗)｝,in which the interval grey number in the A(⊗) can not be put in order directly in the light of its values,that determinant rules and methods of bigand-small order in the interval grey number are designed.Then using grey system thoghts and systems engineering theories,the paper uncovers player’s game psychology and decision-making rule under the condition of grey information,puts forward conceptions of superiority,inferior and equipollence position degree,based on the judgment rule of interval grey numbers’ position,defines position pure strategy solution,proposes position dominant strategy.And in the end,taking commercial bank dynamic provisioning as example,the pure strategies of this problem are studied. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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R&D Project Termination Decision Based on Improved Rough Sets Theory XIAO Zhi, CHEN Ling, ZHONG Bo 2005, (6):  86-90.  Abstract ( 2239 )   PDF (1522KB) ( 1987 )   Save a kind of decision algorithm of R&D project termination based on improved rough set theory is proposed.The algorithm makes use of the vector space theory to improve the attributes reduction and the rules extraction in the rough set theory and to resolve the questions that calculation of reduction is huge and characteristic is not clear when there are few samples of R&D project to some extent.At the same time,considering R&D project experience that is aborted or successful in the past as samples for learning,it can discern the classification of R&D project with uncertain feature so as to make decision of termination or continued studying.Finally,the feasibility and validity of this algorithm are testified by the instance from a large-scaled enterprise in Chongqing and the comparison with the results by using supported vector machine. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Generalized Value Efficiency Model for Data Envelopment Analysis LI Chun-hao, CHEN Xu, LIANG Qiong, SUN Yong-he 2005, (6):  91-96.  Abstract ( 2164 )   PDF (1745KB) ( 1714 )   Save Aiming at overcoming the drawback of unreasonable weight flexibility in Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA),this paper presents an Applicable Generalized Value Efficiency Model(AGVEM)for DEA to measure the value efficiency of decision-making units(DMU).The AGVEM is for cases in which the decision-maker’s preference functions on outputs are nonlinear.The model is given by way of generalizing the basic theorem of DEA to accommodate value preference estimates on DMU’s outputs,through which weight assurance regions for DEA value efficiency analysis could scientifically and reasonably be introduced using the principle of multiple criteria decision making.A data experiment for verifying the AGVEM shows that the model is able to produce more reliable and powerful conclusions on DMU-discrimination. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study for Selection of R&D Project Cooperative Member Based on Fuzzy Multi-Granularity Term Sets under R&D Strategic Alliance WANG Liang, YANG Nai-ding 2005, (6):  97-101.  Abstract ( 1976 )   PDF (2244KB) ( 1553 )   Save In this paper,an operating method is given for selection of most ideal project cooperative member under strategic alliance.A feasible scope of bid price is given through static gaming model for cooperative member.Considering of experts evaluating expecting profit degree with fuzzy multi-granularity,it is first transferred to basic linguistic term set to get integrated eveluation information for calculating profit degree and optimum bid price.Price and time satisfaction degree formulas are given.Based on the translation formulas of utility values and ranking formulas of complementary judgment matrix for information integrated,a most ideal project cooperative member is selected. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Comparison on Payment Structure of R&D Contest with Incomplete Information HAN Jian-jun, TAN De-qing, GUO Yao-huang 2005, (6):  102-107.  Abstract ( 2166 )   PDF (1630KB) ( 1674 )   Save On the side of sponsor,based on game theory,this paper presents an up-front fixed-prize R&D contest model and an auction R&D contest model,compares the sponsor’s total expected income at different payment structure.It is pointed out that:under incomplete information comducting aution will generally reduce the sponsor’s prize expenditure relative to fixed-prize contest. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Studies on Combination Contract of Explicit and Implicit Incentives to Human Capital CHEN Shuang-ying, TANG Xiao-wo, MA Yong-kai 2005, (6):  108-112.  Abstract ( 1911 )   PDF (1578KB) ( 1564 )   Save The paper analyses combinative incentive contract,including implicit incentive contract based on subjective performance and explicit contract based on objective performance to entrepreneur human capital.The implicit incentive contract and explicit incentive contract models are given firstly.On the base of static analysis,the change meaning of relative parameters in the model is deeply discussed and the significance of combination incentive contract is that the expected gains of the entrepreneur and the owner are increased under the restraints. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Difference of Uneployment Insurance Duration and Unemployment Duration WANG Yuan-yue, MA Chi-cheng 2005, (6):  113-117.  Abstract ( 2020 )   PDF (1132KB) ( 2020 )   Save The paper analyzes the effects of unemployment insurance(UI) duration on the unemployment duration using registered data of the unemployed men in Qingdao.We apply survival analysis to our duration research and construct a Cox proportional hazard model based on the dynamic search theory.The results suggest that the unemployment insurance has a potential disincentive effects on the hazard into employment,which can be found from comparing UI-receiver with non-receiver.We also find that different levels of UI duration have different effets on the hazard to employment and unemployment durations.In general,unemployment duration changes in common with UI duration in the condition of same UI benefit. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Comparative Studies on the Efficiency of Relative Performance Evaluation and Joint Performance Evaluation LUO Pin-liang 2005, (6):  118-124.  Abstract ( 2231 )   PDF (922KB) ( 1784 )   Save Performance evaluation is one of the key issues of team incentives.This paper compares the incentive efficiency of relative performance evaluation and joint performance evaluation,and applies the results to the design of performance evaluation in virtual R&D organization.The main findings of this paper are as follows:relative performance evaluation is more efficient in the situation of one period;whereas joint performance evaluation is more advantageous in the situation of multi-period.Meanwhile,joint performance evaluation might be self enforcing,and could prevent collusion and enhance cooperating.This paper proposes a framework for evaluating performance of virtual R&D organization(VRO) based on these basic results. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Synthetic Evaluation about the Performance of E-Government Based On Neural Network YAN Jia-hua, NING Guo-liang, SHENG Ming-ke 2005, (6):  125-130.  Abstract ( 2074 )   PDF (1698KB) ( 2139 )   Save In this paper,we build the evaluation index system of E-government’s performance according to the essence of E-government performance,and proposes the neural networks to evaluate the performance of E-government,the neural network method overcomes the insufficiencies of existing expert based method and offers a new model for evaluating the quality,cost and performance of E-government. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Network Externality and the Analysis of Enterprise Vertical Merger CHENG Gui-sun, CHEN Hong-min, SUN Wu-jun 2005, (6):  131-135.  Abstract ( 2034 )   PDF (1557KB) ( 2170 )   Save Through the model of product vertical differentiation,the paper analyzes whether there is the motive of enterprise vertical integration and unintegration in the product with network externality.The results show the enterprises have more motive to carry out the strategy of vertical merger and integration in the product market with network externality.And it shows for enterprise or consumer,that the equilibrium in the market structure of vertical integration is superior to one in the market structure of unintegrated monopolists. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Organization Modeling Method Based on Agent LI De-gang, YU De-jie, LIU Jian, SHU Hao-hua 2005, (6):  136-142.  Abstract ( 1957 )   PDF (690KB) ( 2397 )   Save Aiming at the renovated design of complicated organization,by analyzing the weak points of structural and object-oriented organization modeling methods,an agent based organization modeling and analysis method named ABOAMM is proposed.By using the features of Agent,ABOAMM not only can describe units of larger granularity and multistructures but also overcome the shortcomings of other agent modeling by planning of the work flow.The e-maintenance organization design of some petrochemical corporation based on ABOAMM has certified its advantages. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evolvement Mechanism and Reforging Path of Enterprise Technological Capability during Industry Conversion WANG De-lu, ZHOU Min 2005, (6):  143-148.  Abstract ( 1906 )   PDF (894KB) ( 1674 )   Save The new technological capability has become a key factor influencing success or not of industry conversion.On the basis of case study,the technological capability evolvement path is analyzed,and the evolvement system model is constructed to explore the reforging path.Then two cultivation models of primary technology mining and technology learning of enterprises technological capability are put forward,and the key factors affecting the model choice are analyzed.At last the technological capability integration model is constructed to improve technological capability integration efficiency. References | Related Articles | Metrics