Table of Content

28 February 2006, Volume 14 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Tests for the Structural Changes in the Volatilities of Inflation Rates Path of China's Economy LIU Jin-quan, JIN Chun-yu, ZHENG Ting-guo 2006, (1):  1-6.  Abstract ( 2203 )   PDF (1258KB) ( 2274 )   Save In this paper,we use the parameter stability tests to analyze the dynamic path of inflation rate of China's economy.We find that there is the significant structural breaks in China's inflation rate.By using the least square estimation on structural breaks,we have the point estimator and interval estimator for the autoregression model of inflation rate.Based on the China's economic situations,we established the inflation model by structural model,and described the high inflation periods since 1984. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Wavelet Transformation Based Estimation Method of LMSV Model XU Mei, ZHANG Shi-ying 2006, (1):  7-14.  Abstract ( 2094 )   PDF (2372KB) ( 1882 )   Save Wavelet is introduced to the estimation of the Long Memory Stochastic Volatility(LMSV)model,and the wavelet transformation based estimation method of parameters and volatility process is proposed on the bases of the wavelet analysis results of ARFIMA process.The method suggested is proved to be effective and feasible by the simulation experiments with different parameters value and different series length as well as the estimation of LMSV model of the return series of aggregate index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Empirical Study on the Market Fluctuation Characteristics of Chinese Securities Investment Fund GUO Xiao-ting 2006, (1):  15-20.  Abstract ( 2018 )   PDF (2213KB) ( 1963 )   Save This article analyzes briefly the characteristic of different ARCH models and then uses relevant models to carry on the empirical study on the market fluctuation characteristics of Chinese securities investment fund.The EGARCH,TGARCH,EGARCH-M models are used to analyze the volatility clustering,leverage effect,risk premium effect,and the relationship between volatility and information.According to the empirical study results,there are volatility clustering and leverage effect in China securities investment fund market,but there is not statistically significant risk premium effect.The positive correlation exits between the China securities investment fund market fluctuation and its trading volume. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Study of Multiple Projects Investment Decision Based on Real Option FAN Xia, LIU Xi-lin 2006, (1):  21-24.  Abstract ( 2131 )   PDF (1017KB) ( 1913 )   Save The paper incorporates real options concepts into enterprise's decision and constructs an option-based 0-1 integer programming model to evaluate multiple projects that compete with each other.Using the model,enterprise can invest project with time flexibility and optimizes the value of investment portfolios. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Game Analysis on Quality Failure of Supply Chain CAO Jian, YANG Chun-jie 2006, (1):  25-29.  Abstract ( 2134 )   PDF (1101KB) ( 1902 )   Save The efficient coordination between one risk neutral supplier and one risk neutral buyer was studied in view of products' quality failure.To maximize the profits of the bi-level supply chain,the proper quality costs of the supplier and the proper appraisal costs of the buyer were determined by the optimization method.Then,combined with the practical operation of supply chain,three kinds of utility models in accordance with how to undertake external and internal quality failure between two members were proposed and analyzed.The results indicate that,by determining the proper external partition coefficient and internal partition coefficient,the global optimization of suplpy chain and the local optimization of each member can be obtained concurrently.The conclusions are significant to guide the contract-making between members in the supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on Relational Risk Resulting From Transaction-Specific Investments: Moderating Effects of Control Mechanisms and Relationship Phases LIU Yi, QIAN Li-ping, YIN Jian 2006, (1):  30-36.  Abstract ( 1942 )   PDF (1250KB) ( 1846 )   Save On a dynamic perspective,this paper examines the change of suppliers' perceived relational risks from the TSIs in the relationship with their manufacturers and investigates the moderating effects of contracts and relational norms on the perceived relational risks during the process of manufacturer-supplier relationship development.Through researching on the data from 261 supplier enterprises in Chinese household electrical appliances sector,the hypotheses are tested by using the factor analysis and multi-regression analysis.It argues that(1) Each relationship phase differently moderates the positive relationship between suppliers' TSIs and their perceived relational risks.(2) Although contracts and relational norms both have negative moderating effects on the positive relationship between suppliers' TSIs and their perceived relational risks,these moderating roles are different in various phases of a relationship.The research has drawn both the theoretical and managerial implications for understanding the changing of suppliers' perceived relational risks with TSIs involved in different relationship phases and the differences of moderating effects of contracts and relational norms on the positive relationship between the suppliers' TSIs and their perceived relational risks. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Bargaining Process and Equilibrium of Profit-Maximizing for Supply Chain DU Yi-fei, LI Shi-ming, LIN Guang-ping 2006, (1):  37-42.  Abstract ( 2192 )   PDF (1503KB) ( 2049 )   Save Are there a set of discount rates making it possible that the sub-game-perfect equilibrium of alternating-offer bargaining just meet profit-maximizing of supply chain? In this paper,it is indicated that the sum for each firm's profit converges to equilibrium of profit-maximizing for supply chain as the discount rates of both game sides approach 1.Then,we prove that it is impossible to reach profit-maximizing of supply chain when the discount rates of both game sides are strictly less than 1.Finally,we explain our conclusion by an example. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis on the Existence of the Bullwhip Effect in Virtual Enterprises with Non-Stable Demand LIAO Cheng-lin, SONG Bo, LI Yi 2006, (1):  43-49.  Abstract ( 2062 )   PDF (1491KB) ( 1987 )   Save This paper introduces the concept and model of bullwhip effect into the operation of virtual enterprises based on the supply chain management.We uses the varied coefficient ARIMA model to forecast the demand information of upstream and downstream firms in virtual enterprises,and studies the discrepancy of the order level between the upstream and downstream firms,then prove the existence of the bullwhip effect in virtual enterprises.At last we conclude that non-stable demand is also the important factor besides agile management and information sharing,which influence the bullwhip effect,and discuss the condition that bullwhip effect emerges under the situation of complete information sharing. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis on the Coopetition Strategies of Supply China Enterprise ZHONG Sheng 2006, (1):  50-55.  Abstract ( 2048 )   PDF (1935KB) ( 2287 )   Save In this paper,we built up two-stage dynamic game models to analysize four strategy combinations(i.e.strategy combinations of noncooperation-cooperation,cooperation-noncooperation,nocooperation-noncooperation and cooperation-cooperation) of suppliers and manufactures,and demonstrated that the copperation-cooperation strategy combination was only one of the co-opetition strategies,but the cooperation-noncooperation strategy combination was the best co-opetition strategy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Marketing Channel Distributor Alliance Contract Mechanism Design Based on Cartel Model CHEN Jie, WANG Fang-hua 2006, (1):  56-60.  Abstract ( 2062 )   PDF (1225KB) ( 1916 )   Save Marketing channel distributor alliance is one of the main ways to improve the profit for both sides.Though the alliance is instable,both sides wish to form the alliance and construct mechanism to restrict each other through negotiation while the market structure will change from monopolization competition to Cartel alliance.This paper analyzes the probability of marketing channel distributor alliance and designs the contract mechanism based on Cartel model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on the Interaction between Strategic Transfer Pricing Commitment and Downstream Innovation FENG Hua, MA Shi-hua, CUI Yuan-feng 2006, (1):  61-68.  Abstract ( 2053 )   PDF (2179KB) ( 1632 )   Save This research examines the interaction between the strategic transfer pricing commitment and downstream innovation in a supplier-manufacturer channel,and its influences on the optimal quoted delivery time and investment decisions.We model the channel operation in a make-to-order fashion and treat the demand as being linear in price and quoted delivery time.We use this analysis to show that the interaction between full commitment and full flexibility has nothing to do with the optimal quoted delivery time,while with respect to the supplier,the manufacturer and the supply chain as a whole,full commitment is always dominating full commitment.Further,we study the robustness of optimal profit contributions when some of the model parameters are mis-estimated. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Extending Service Business and the Cognitive Factors for Manufacturing Company HEIKO Gebauer, WANG Chun-zhi 2006, (1):  69-75.  Abstract ( 1954 )   PDF (1227KB) ( 1987 )   Save Competition in markets for manufacturing companies is growing more intense and fierce.Nearly all companies are confronted with the need to respond to ever-faster communication and price pressure.To respond to the decreasing product margins,manufacturing companies have developed a growing interest in extending the service business as a source of generating additional revenues and profits.Extending the service business leads to a step-wise transition from products to services.In this paper,we present the main findings of our empirical study on over 30 Swiss and German machine and equipment manufacturing companies.We depicted systematically the causes and processes of the transition while analyzing the finance,marketing and strategic opportunities of services business,and analyzing the transition line from product manufacturer to solution provider.With the consideration of why many companies have not yet gain corresponding high service revenue since services have potentials in financial,marketing and strategy,we drew the conclusion that there are cognitive factors on managerial motivations,which constrained the extending services business.Through this paper,we attempt to provide theoretical and practical guidance to successfully extend the service business for Chinese manufacturing companies since they must face the global competition after China's entrance into WTO. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Effectiveness of Point Method Model in Job Evaluation YU Shun-kun 2006, (1):  76-80.  Abstract ( 2151 )   PDF (1130KB) ( 2680 )   Save Job evaluation is the base for salary system design while point method is one of the most scientific among all the evualtion methods.However in practice the effectiveness of the method is largerly ingored by users.The paper expounds on the key points of point method from three perspectives: how to select the appraisal facotrs,how to determine factor weight and how to classfiy factor's grading.In the paper it is proposed that a systematic analysis and statistical procedure should be utilized to determine the compensation factors of the evaluation system;a modified analytic hierarchy process(AHP) is used to determine the weight of the factors;and procedure of pretest and executive position ordering to absorb expert experience is done to modify the above-montioned methods.All the work is based on enterprise practice so the appropriateness of the method is testified. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Twice-Consuming Goods Based on Revenue Sharing Contract XIONG Zhong-kai, CAO jun, ZHAO Quan-wu 2006, (1):  81-87.  Abstract ( 2194 )   PDF (1928KB) ( 1718 )   Save In a two-stage decentralized supply chain of perishable goods with the character of twice-consuming and composed by a telecom-operator and a retailer,the operator and retailer have the same demand distributions.In addition,the retailer adopts price-discount policy and the operator adopts revenue sharing policy.This paper studies how the leader in the game should design the terms of the supply contract to transfer its venture and maximize its expected profit.This paper builds the model to solve this problem and discusses the value of revenue sharing contract in twice-consuming goods by mathematics example. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study of Customer Utility and Enterprise Profit Based on Quality Information Asymmetry Degree WANG Qing-guo, CAI Shu-qin, TANG Yun-fei 2006, (1):  88-93.  Abstract ( 2233 )   PDF (2010KB) ( 2085 )   Save This paper reviews and analyzes the relative studies about quality information asymmetry and quality information asymmetry degree,defines quality information asymmetry degree by comparing real quality information of products with customer prospective quality information.Introduce firstly quality information asymmetry degree in the studies on customer utility and enterprise profit,design customer utility model and enterprise profit model based on quality information asymmetry,quality and price,discuss the effects of quality information asymmetry degree on customer utilities and enterprise profits,analyze economic meaning of changing quality information asymmetry degree and customer favoritism,validate the rationality and validity of the definition and deduction by instance study,and draw these conclusions:the enterprise can change quality information asymmetry degree to obtain better profits by adjusting the capacity of information promulgated,and better customer utility and enterprise profit can be gotten only by keeping quality information asymmetry degree at suitable level. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Pricing Schemes of Enterprise's Internet-Based Advertising CAO Wen-bin 2006, (1):  94-99.  Abstract ( 1933 )   PDF (1429KB) ( 1945 )   Save This paper addresses the optimal pricing strategies of Internet-based advertising when a firm is advertising on multiple websites.An network optimization model is constructed for comparing three pricing schemes of Internet-based advertising subject to a budget constraint,analyzing some questions about click-throughs rate and the amount of websites,etc.A variational inequality-based algorithm is developed to find the optimal solution. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Affections of Information Sharing for Incentive Contracts in Logistics Outsourcing LIANG Jing, CAI Shu-qin, WU Ying-min 2006, (1):  100-105.  Abstract ( 1962 )   PDF (1928KB) ( 1710 )   Save This paper analyzes,a logistics outsourcing system which coasists of a supplier,a manufacturer and a third-party logistics supplier(3PLs).Based on coordination work,an incentive contract model is presented,while the affections of information sharing are considered.When the principal prefers the higher efforts,information sharing could create more chance for the principal to acquire more private information to monitor actions of the 3PLs.It encourages the 3PLs to work in principal's interest.The paper ends with a discussion of improvement of the model and directions for future research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Comprehensive Importance Measurement for Nodes AN Shi-hu, DU Yi-bing, QU Ji-lin 2006, (1):  106-111.  Abstract ( 2102 )   PDF (1857KB) ( 1977 )   Save Nodes' importance is often concerned in many real world systems,such as economic systems with social relation structure and communication networks.After the requirements of an effective importance measurement for nodes in a network are analyzed,the comprehensive importance measure for nodes in a node-weighed network based on the approach of deleting nodes is modeled.And with the help of the procedure of calculating the distances among nodes on a graph,a new algorithm for this model is designed.Finally,an example is given for illustrating the application of the method in knowledge sharing network. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Finite Time Ruin Probability in Erlangian Risk Model with Constant Interest Force JIANG Tao 2006, (1):  112-116.  Abstract ( 2228 )   PDF (2031KB) ( 2657 )   Save Erlangian risk model is widely used in queueing theory,control theory and finance risk models.Under the assumptions that the claim-arrival follows Erlangian process,the claim-size is Paretian distributed and the constant interest force exists,this paper obtains the asymptotic formula of finite-time ruin probability,that essentially extends the corresponding results of reference[1] which only deals with ultimate time ruin probability,and reference[2] which merely limits the model to the Poisson case.By the relationship between ruin model and queueing model we know that the results we obtain can be applied to management science in many aspects. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Time-Sharing Price Practical Forecasting Model in Distribution Networks LIU Cheng-shui, QI Jian-xun 2006, (1):  117-121.  Abstract ( 2009 )   PDF (968KB) ( 1603 )   Save Accurate electricity price forecast is of great importance to the participants of power market.The paper proposes the optimal model of electricity pricing in distribution networks.The electricity price is defined according to economic theory.Utilizing mathematical analysis to pricing mode,the formula of pricing electricity is then presented,and the algorithms of calculating items in pricing formula are also discussed.In the end,a numerical case study is given to demonstrate the usefulness and rationality of the model suggested. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Metric Method of Industrial Ordered Structure Based on Shannon's Entropy HUANG Rong-bing, HU Yun-quan 2006, (1):  122-128.  Abstract ( 1986 )   PDF (1766KB) ( 2629 )   Save In this paper,referred to Shannon's information entropy,the model of industrial affiliation entropy and industrial operation entropy are builtup respectively from static and dynamic states,and the corresponding calculating methods are given.These models can reflect organic relation and development level between industries,and describe rational and advanced extents of industry structure.A demonstration study is taken for a certain mining city;and also,calculation results are analyzed and discussed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Effect Mechanism of Money Manager's Behavior on Stock Market CHEN Qi-an, CAO Guo-hua 2006, (1):  129-135.  Abstract ( 2107 )   PDF (1708KB) ( 2073 )   Save As the dominant investor in the stock market,the money manager's investment psychology and behavior would greatly affect on the stock market.This paper researches the effect mechanism of the money manager's past success and failure experience on his present investment psychology and behavior,and this kind of investment psychology and behavior on trading volume of the stock market,the stock price volatility and the money manger's investment performance by setting up an appropriate mathematical model.The results show that the money manager's usual failure experience would make him be over-pessimistic and his usual success experience would make him be overconfident.The expected equilibrium trading volume of the stock market and the volatility of expected equilibrium price would always be positively related to the money manager's past success record,and the money manager who was over-successful or over-failed in the past would not obtain the best real expected performance in the future. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Incentive and Monitor Problems of Government Based on Cycle Economy Pattern ZHANG Bao-yin, WANG Bo, WU Yu 2006, (1):  136-141.  Abstract ( 2190 )   PDF (1940KB) ( 2123 )   Save In order to study how government induces enterprises put reverse logistics strategy in practice based on cycle economy pattern,this paper designs an incentive and monitor model for them under asymmetrical information,and analyzes how government and enterprises make the optional contract as information is asymmetrical,as well as government how to select the effective and feasible monitoring effort.The result provides a theoretic support for government to design the policy to inspirit and monitor enterprises in practising the reverse logistics strategy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Effect of Incentive Incorporating Executive's Relative Performance into Principal-Agent Model PU Yong-jian, ZHOU Li 2006, (1):  142-148.  Abstract ( 2011 )   PDF (2469KB) ( 2047 )   Save This article studies further about principal-agent model,constitutes an incentive pattern which includes multi-variables,comparing incentive intensity,risks undertaking by executives and monitoring cost have on the owner's shoulders before and after the relative performance is incorporated.Meanwhile,the analysis of empirical data shows that it is available and feasible,and such mechanism doesn't exist in the sample corporations within which compensation of executives is closely related with relative performance. References | Related Articles | Metrics